Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

It's the broader impact of this virus though. One nurse in QLD = 200 in isolation. And that is being repeated in other hospitals/care facilities. In Victoria the indirect impact is what's stretching the system, not the admissions per se.

If we are in fact getting less virulent strains... perhaps the solution is faster testing so people can get back to work rather than be out of the system for two weeks.

So my point on that, is this isolation necessary if the virus simply does not result in hospitilisations anymore? The goal was always stated to be to flatten the curve so that we didnt overwhelm the hospitals. That didnt even happen in Victoria at its worst. Possibly isolation in a hospital setting or aged care home, but a more general setting like the usual workplace or shopping centre?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So my point on that, is this isolation necessary if the virus simply does not result in hospitilisations anymore? The goal was always stated to be to flatten the curve so that we didnt overwhelm the hospitals. That didnt even happen in Victoria at its worst. Possibly isolation in a hospital setting or aged care home, but a more general setting like the usual workplace or shopping centre?

I think the answer is that the isolation is necessary because of the impacts on the vulnerable, particularly aged care.

We have people going to work with symptoms... doctors and nurses included. So what do we do? Isolate to protect the vulnerable, or leave it up to individual judgement (which we know has flaws).

 

[Pushka]

I think the answer is that the isolation is necessary because of the impacts on the vulnerable, particularly aged care.

We have people going to work with symptoms... doctors and nurses included. So what do we do? Isolate to protect the vulnerable, or leave it up to individual judgement (which we know has flaws).

But other than those working with the vulnerable, what else do we actually need to do if the virus changes and is no longer as threatening to life?

 

[jakeseven7]

So, case numbers continue to come in, but the hospital and critical care rates seem to be completely controlled. Yes, we continue to experience deaths but those are for cases that were positive several days ago and not as relevant to todays figures. The number of positive cases was an indicator of future demand on care services but that doesnt seem to be the same issue currently as the number of positive cases isnt translating to a rise in hospital admissions. Has the virus changed and if so, when will that be used for future planning?

Good news on top of another lower numbers day for Vic is they’ve started closing and merging their covid wards and designated Covid hospitals are also gearing up for a return to ‘normality’.

Apparently there is a big big announcement coming on elective surgery in Vic.

There has been a lot of commentary about actually how well the ‘last line’ of defence held up, also Australia has experienced its ‘first wave’ much later than all other countries which means a lot of learnings have been gleaned from overseas on treatment protocols (according to an ED physician) plus perhaps a healthier base population.

 

[jb747]

Apparently there is a big big announcement coming on elective surgery in Vic.

Looking at they way Vic works, I guess they'll allow elective surgery, but won't allow you out of your home to go to the hospital for it..... Then they'll declare that obviously nobody wants elective surgery, so they'll do away with it.

 

[Seat0B]

Looking at they way Vic works, I guess they'll allow elective surgery, but won't allow you out of your home to go to the hospital for it..... Then they'll declare that obviously nobody wants elective surgery, so they'll do away with it.

Chose the sad emoji because I don;t know whether to laugh or cry at your post @jb747.

 

[jakeseven7]

Looking at they way Vic works, I guess they'll allow elective surgery, but won't allow you out of your home to go to the hospital for it..... Then they'll declare that obviously nobody wants elective surgery, so they'll do away with it.

Haha, actually its rumored to be a massive blitz of elective surgery which is great news if true. Fingers crossed for our southern friends.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good news on top of another lower numbers day for Vic is they’ve started closing and merging their covid wards and designated Covid hospitals are also gearing up for a return to ‘normality’.


There has been a lot of commentary about actually how well the ‘last line’ of defence held up, also Australia has experienced its ‘first wave’ much later than all other countries which means a lot of learnings have been gleaned from overseas on treatment protocols (according to an ED physician).

Yes I know from my daughter that their Covid Wards and other related wards are continually being adjusted due to expected demand and trends and have been since March. Her ward has probably been repurposed a dozen times since March with it sometimes being a Covid Ward and sometimes not.

Even without elective surgery there are many existing patients who have to be managed. Some have been there since before the pandemic. Some with ongoing problems, and some in palliative care. Plus there are emergency cases that come in.


Her hospital has had only a very small number of staff infected. From what I know they were probably the first hospital in Vic to move to all staff wearing facemasks at all times while at work, including in just staff to staff interaction situations, plus a raft of other measures.



Whereas my niece who is at a different hospital which did not adopt such measures as quickly had a large outbreak (though she herself remained negative).

Maybe just different luck at the two hospitals, maybe not.

 

[oz_mark]

That's exactly my question. At what point do we move out of the 'project' phase and into 'BAU' for want of a better term.

When the scope creep stops

 

[Hvr]

Haha, actually its rumored to be a massive blitz of elective surgery which is great news if true. Fingers crossed for our southern friends.

Well there are lots of surgeons who haven't been able to work for awhile. Like pilots they need to practice regularly to remain on the cutting edge.

 

[straitman]

Well there are lots of surgeons who haven't been able to work for awhile. Like pilots they need to practice regularly to remain on the cutting edge.

... and we have a private hospital in our area that is ‘apparently’ on its knees financially as it’s not allowed to do other than class 1 surgery.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

qld zero cases, passed 1 million tests

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So my point on that, is this isolation necessary if the virus simply does not result in hospitilisations anymore?

While there does seem to be some thought that the virus is possibly now more transmissible, but less deadly, there does not seem to be anything conclusive on this yet.

What we do know however is that it currently it does still cause hospitalisations, ongoing health issues for some of those infected, and death. So while in time CV19 may become a lot less deadly, it is not yet there.

When the Second Wave gained momentum in Victoria what also happened was that the % of elderly who were getting infected dramatically increased and hence hospitalisations and the rising death toll followed. I have not seen the active cases by age profile metric for some time now, but presumably the % of the elderly being infected with Covid 19 is dropping. Certainly the numbers will be.


Also with the reduced mortality rate, note that it is now known how to better treat Covid 19 patients, with better/more treatments, and that if systems are not as overwhelmed that better care occurs at an earlier time. I know that one NY Doctor made the comment at the height of their deaths that many patients were simply arriving at the hospital too late.

The goal was always stated to be to flatten the curve so that we didnt overwhelm the hospitals. That didnt even happen in Victoria at its worst.

While true, this was with various measures/restrictions in place. But it is also true that it was approaching being overwhelmed. Without restrictions it probably would have been overwhelmed.

And yes also some of the hospitalisations were due to aged care patients being accommodated as some aged care facilities had failed and could no longer service their residents. But without restrictions even more of the aged care facilities would have become overwhelmed as well which would have then also worsened the hospital situation.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But other than those working with the vulnerable, what else do we actually need to do if the virus changes and is no longer as threatening to life?

I dunno if it’s ok just to tell health workers, ‘oh, it’s ok for you to get covid’?

Even if nurses aren’t working with the elderly or vulnerable... why should we be putting them at additional risk? We don’t know the long term consequences.

If a business wants to trade, that’s their choice. And it’s their clients’ choice if they want to engage with that business. But nurses don’t really have that ‘option’ or ‘choice’. They’re stuck with who comes in, and we don’t know how covid will affect any one individual nurse.

 

[mrs.dr.ron]

I dunno if it’s ok just to tell health workers, ‘oh, it’s ok for you to get covid’?
Even if nurses aren’t working with the elderly or vulnerable... why should we be putting them at additional risk? We don’t know the long term consequences.
If a business wants to trade, that’s their choice. And it’s their clients’ choice if they want to engage with that business. But nurses don’t really have that ‘option’ or ‘choice’. They’re stuck with who comes in, and we don’t know how covid will affect any one individual nurse.

And not all nurses are healthy young things. I know several of my vintage still working - and that have "health issues" of their own.

 

[Pushka]

I did exclude that group. But in reality that is their work life everyday but we don’t think about it .

I dunno if it’s ok just to tell health workers, ‘oh, it’s ok for you to get covid’?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Victoria details relevant in getting closer to next step on roadmap

Rolling 14-day averages in Victoria

From August 27 to September 9:
Regional Victoria: 4.5
Metro Victoria: 70.1

In regional Victoria, eight of the new cases over the last 14 days were from an unknown source.

In Melbourne, that number is 154.

ABC covid live blog bolding

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW 7 cases
- 2 in quarantine
- 5 linked to known cases/clusters

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I did exclude that group. But in reality that is their work life everyday but we don’t think about it .

Agree. But the heartache for those nurses who have to quarantine for 14 days because one of their colleagues tested positive. They can’t hug their children. Can’t see their partners. Can’t visit their parents. This isn’t quite pre-covid conditions

 

[Pushka]

Agree. But the heartache for those nurses who have to quarantine for 14 days because one of their colleagues tested positive. They can’t hug their children. Can’t see their partners. Can’t visit their parents. This isn’t quite pre-covid conditions

Yes agreed. Amd this is being done on the basis that is using the premis that the virus is still as virulent as previously. So my question is more that are the demograhics and hospital admission rates supporting that the virus is the same as it was back in March.