Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Major]

Apparently NZ has 120 active cases at the moment. I thought they were doing better than that


As at 9.00 am, 10 September 2020

	Total	Change in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand	1,441	4
Number of probable cases	351	0
Number of confirmed and probable cases	1,792	4
Number of recovered cases	1,648	9
Number of deaths	24	0
Number of active cases	120	-5
Number of cases currently in hospital	3	-1

 

[p--and--t]

perhaps the solution is faster testing so people can get back to work rather than be out of the system for two weeks.

Jeez better be careful, I'm really becoming a fan boy of [some] of your posts.

[gotta disagree on something or life would be boring]

 

[dajop]

Yes agreed. Amd this is being done on the basis that is using the premis that the virus is still as virulent as previously. So my question is more that are the demograhics and hospital admission rates supporting that the virus is the same as it was back in March.

It's hard to tell for us mere amateurs. I looked at the Vic states, on 1 April (earliest date on Covidlive for hospitalisation figures) of the 621 actives cases in the state, 32 or 5% were in hospital. 4 weeks later on 28 April, only 55 active cases remained, but 23 or 42% of them were in hospital, which is perhaps not that unexpected. This time around, at the peak of the number of active cases on 11 Aug (7880 active cases), there were 650 hospitalisations - or 8%, whilst today, there remain 1483 active cases, 169 or 11% remain in hospital.

A medico would be able to comment, but it doesn't appear that there is clear evidence that this wave is producing much less in the way of hospitalisations, The ICU rates on same dates were 1.0% (1/4), 20% (28/4), 0.5% (28/8) and 1.1% (10/4), which again is difficult for a layperson to interpret - as it could be explained by better treatment now, or more people dying, or less virulent - who knows, someone medically trained might be better able to comment.

 

[RooFlyer]

With apologies to the Victorians who may think they are suffering enough ...

First we had:

Quoting: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is facing calls to end the state’s night-time curfew immediately, after it was revealed that the unprecedented restriction was not based on medical advice.

Chief health officer Brett Sutton dramatically threw Mr Andrews under the bus yesterday, making the explosive claim in an interview with 3AW’s Neil Mitchell.

and Premier Andrews' then 'fessing up that he ordered it and:

Quoting: At his daily press conference on Tuesday, Mr Andrews admitted that the curfew makes “the job of the Victoria Police much easier”.

Now we have (my bolding)

The Victoria Police Chief Commissioner has said the decision to impose an 8pm to 5am curfew on Victorians did not come from police.

Shane Patton told ABC radio this morning he believed the decision had been made on “health advice”, contradicting comments from Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton on Tuesday.

The police chief said the curfew was contained within the Chief Health Officer’s directions.

“The Deputy Chief Health Officer has signed those, presumably under the direction and with the endorsement of the CHO,” Mr Patton told ABC radio.

Mr Patton said police were only told about the curfew a few hours before it was due to begin on August 2.

If you go back to the Hotel Quarantine decision, where its emerged via Premier Andrews' inquiry that there was really no-one in charge of the decision to employ private security guards, ya gotta wonder what the heck is going on.

 

[p--and--t]

It's hard to tell for us mere amateurs. I looked at the Vic states, on 1 April (earliest date on Covidlive for hospitalisation figures) of the 621 actives cases in the state, 32 or 5% were in hospital. 4 weeks later on 28 April, only 55 active cases remained, but 23 or 42% of them were in hospital, which is perhaps not that unexpected. This time around, at the peak of the number of active cases on 11 Aug (7880 active cases), there were 650 hospitalisations - or 8%, whilst today, there remain 1483 active cases, 169 or 11% remain in hospital.

A medico would be able to comment, but it doesn't appear that there is clear evidence that this wave is producing much less in the way of hospitalisations, The ICU rates on same dates were 1.0% (1/4), 20% (28/4), 0.5% (28/8) and 1.1% (10/4), which again is difficult for a layperson to interpret - as it could be explained by better treatment now, or more people dying, or less virulent - who knows, someone medically trained might be better able to comment.

Compound that with adding in who got infected and where from (living conditions, nursing home, gov flats, own home), disadvantage (relative food quality, hygiene, access to services), age, pre-conditions, accuracy of death certificate (died with as opposed to died from) and the analysis is hair-pulling.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yes agreed. Amd this is being done on the basis that is using the premis that the virus is still as virulent as previously. So my question is more that are the demograhics and hospital admission rates supporting that the virus is the same as it was back in March.

I don't know if the virulence of the virus matters? Anyone becoming infected runs the chance of a bad reaction, or infecting someone who could have a bad reaction. Isolating stops the spread.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Apparently NZ has 120 active cases at the moment. I thought they were doing better than that


As at 9.00 am, 10 September 2020

	Total	Change in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand	1,441	4
Number of probable cases	351	0
Number of confirmed and probable cases	1,792	4
Number of recovered cases	1,648	9
Number of deaths	24	0
Number of active cases	120	-5
Number of cases currently in hospital	3	-1

As at today’s NZ data 120 active (39 are travellers in quarantine, 81 from the community outbreak). Their total community outbreak over the month 11/8-10/9 is 175 (92 recovered, 2 deaths).

But you are better off noting it in another forum thread

New Zealand records Fresh cases of COVID19

Jacinda Adern just held a press conference, Four new confirmed cases in one family, acquired from an unknown source (no overseas travel), so community transmission in NZ, no where is immune. NZ held up as gold standard, so will be interesting to see if they can identify the cause and quash...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW has 34 total community transmission over 2 months since before Crossroad was reported. So about 1 case every second day.

In the past two weeks, NSW still averaging about 1 community transmission a day 12 over 14 days, but some cases take time to resolve.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Updated: 10 September, 11:20am

 

[Flying mermaid]

But other than those working with the vulnerable, what else do we actually need to do if the virus changes and is no longer as threatening to life?

Still don’t know the long term consequences for the young. There has been some research showing people with lung damage or neurological problems quite some time after recovery. So it doesn’t seem like a normal flu where once you have recovered it’s all fine. There might be quite a lot of chronic disease and things like PIMS-TS in children - need to know more and perhaps protect everyone until we do know more.

 

[jakeseven7]

So it doesn’t seem like a normal flu where once you have recovered it’s all fine.

Actually and maybe surprising for some people to hear, some people can also have lingering long term effects from a bout of the flu.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Actually and maybe surprising for some people to hear, some people can also have lingering long term effects from a bout of the flu.

Yes any illness can - post viral fatigue is quite common and can last a long time

However with COVID they are finding some quite concerning indications but probably way too early to really know.

GOSH in London (which is where Dr FM is currently), is doing research on PIMS-TS. They have had a few cases in Melbourne where children have had the virus.

Probably take years before they know all the consequences.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes any illness can - post viral fatigue is quite common and can last a long time

However with COVID they are finding some quite concerning indications but probably way too early to really know.

Flu can actually cause heart and lung complications as well as post viral fatigue as well

 

[Flying mermaid]

Flu can actually cause heart and lung complications as well as post viral fatigue as well

Well of course . But probably not neurological damage - early days, but there are some fears of things like increased risk of Alzheimers etc. with a little grand daughter I am particularly concerned with the PIMS-TS connection. Still seems rare fortunately.

With so many unknowns I think it is far too soon to be taking the view point that if people aren’t dying as much then that’s all there is to worry about.

 

[drron]

Neurological damage isn't that uncommon with seasonal flu.And the problem flu often attacks younger people.In the 2009 Swine flu pandemic the greatest numbers of those infected were younger than 30.

Neurologic complications of seasonal influenza include encephalopathy (Reye's syndrome), encephalomyelitis, transverse myelitis, aseptic meningitis, focal neurologic disorders, and Guillain–Barré syndrome; these occur mostly in children (70). The pathogenesis is unclear but may include direct viral invasion and development of antigen/antibody complexes or overproduction of systemic cytokines. Diagnosis is based on clinical and laboratory findings. Lumbar puncture is often normal (71) and viral particles are rarely detected (72). The electroencephalogram is usually abnormal. Computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning should be performed in cases of focal or severe neurologic symptoms; abnormalities predict adverse outcomes (70). In 1999, an outbreak of encephalopathy/encephalitis was associated with influenza A in Japan. Presentation and outcomes were described for 147 children, 82% of whom were younger than 5 yrs, and almost none were older than 10 yrs; 85% had no underlying disease (73). All had altered levels of consciousness and 80% had seizures. Multiorgan failure was common and 41 patients died. Thrombocytopenia (<50,000) and elevated aspartate aminotransferase (>1000 U/L) were associated with mortality rates of 83% and 74%, respectively.

And unlike Covid in Australia where 91% of those with severe disease had comorbidities in the swine flu pandemic only one third had severe comorbidities.

The other striking feature is the severity of respiratory illness in previously healthy, relatively young individuals. Several large case series have been reported from the US, Spain, Canada, Mexico, and Australia (Table 1) (13–17). Of 1047 patients admitted to intensive care, 186 (18%) died. Only one-third had any major comorbid conditions. The most commonly reported comorbidities were obesity (30%), asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (31%), and pregnancy (8%). Among patients who died, however, more than three-quarters had a comorbid illness (16).

Complications of seasonal and pandemic influenza : Critical Care Medicine

dults, with almost no cases reported in patients older than 60 yrs. Although patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease remain at risk, most complications have occurred among previously healthy individuals, with obesity and respiratory disease as the strongest risk factors. Pulmonary...

journals.lww.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

This is not the common flu. In 2019 the death toll in the UK from the flu was ~17,000. The death toll from covid in the UK so far is in excess of 45,000.

 

[Flying mermaid]

And of course is it getting less virulent or are treatments better because they understand more, so using steroi_s to counter inflammation etc. in South America where health treatments are poorer they seem to be dying like flies. Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile, Brazil all racing to the top of the deaths per million league

 

[Pushka]

And of course is it getting less virulent or are treatments better because they understand more, so using steroi_s to counter inflammation etc. in South America where health treatments are poorer they seem to be dying like flies. Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile, Brazil all racing to the top of the deaths per million league

I think we need to think about comparing across dissimilar countries when there are so many different factors in play and not one will explain all the variation on its own.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I think we need to think about comparing across dissimilar countries when there are so many different factors in play and not one will explain all the variation on its own.

Totally agree - however I do think the health care in Australia vs South America has to be a big factor.

 

[straitman]

Totally agree - however I do think the health care in Australia vs South America has to be a big factor.

Just one piece of feedback on this. Our daughter and family are and have been in Panama for all of this. Their experience is that the expats obey the quarantine and the locals flaunt it. If caught breaking the rules the locals pay off the police.

Also a byline of this is their lock down has been a lot longer and much harsher than the equivalent in Victoria despite the publicity. (Their kids didn't get to leave the house for 4 months)