Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

As a non medical person, I don't understand how there can be so many mystery cases if Melbourne is locked down, yet most of the places that the public can go to are considered low risk.

Was reading an article yesterday or day before about a mystery case where the woman said she didn't know where she got it because all she did was going to the supermarket once a week, and picked up the child from childcare. Well I think childcare might be a good place to start since most children are asymptomatic!

Childcare clusters have been reasonably common in the second wave in Victoria. Indeed anywhere that adults gather around have been sites of clusters.

Yes children are often asymptomatic. But very small children transmitting the virus is thought to be rare. As opposed to large children in secondary school who have more adult like bodies and where transmission has been shown to occur (often by the students socialising outside of school).

Adults spreading the virus via childcare is not so rare.
The biggest cluster near my home has been named after a childcare centre.

Maybe she spoke with other parents without proper social distancing when arriving or departing.

The are many families with young children near me. When I am out walking I have often seen young mothers in particular having conversations from others they meet while walking and they are not always far enough apart when doing so.

One sees teenagers from different families walking together.

Fomite transmission may have occurred. Reports of this seem rare, but then again there are unknown local transmission.

She may have not remembered all of her contacts.

Or she may have deliberately left out a contact for various reasons including perhaps being concerned that she may be fined.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Update on clusters in Victoria : Snapshot of Victoria's largest (≥10) clusters and outbreaks

 

[kyle]

Or she may have deliberately left out a contact for various reasons including perhaps being concerned that she may be fined.

I think we need some sort of immunity from prosecution or fines when doing contact tracing.

 

[p--and--t]

I think we need some sort of immunity from prosecution or fines when doing contact tracing.

Even with immunity there would be some activities or dalliances not revealed regardless.

From various media reports it won't be the first nor last interaction that mysteriously "cannot be recalled".

Often wondered if the subsequent test result analysis allowed the health department to "put 2 and 2 together".

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think we need some sort of immunity from prosecution or fines when doing contact tracing.

My recollection is that when they interview people for contact tracing purposes that fines are not made.


However the "fear" of being fined, or even that some people may not wish to be identified as having done the wrong thing may still have some not being as quite as honest as they could be.



However if we look at mystery cases within the last 14 days the total is 84. Active cases two days ago (as they lag by 48 hours to give time to trace) was about 1050. So that is about 1 in 8.

Today's cases were 28. So if the new case trend keeps going down, then the number of new mystery cases should also become quite small.

Though with cases falling, then a new cluster can cause a jump, and so the upcoming daily numbers might have some large % swings in them. ie The Colac patient visiting Melbourne that quickly became 24 cases.

And obviously they are trying to jump on the cases in Hallam at present. There have been a number of small clusters there (most not yet at the official definition of 10 or more) and they are obviously concerned that they may be link. A some of the cases are new, the genomic testing is probably not back yet to see if they are linked or not.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Victoria has recorded 45 new cases overnight and 5 more deaths.
@abcnews

@abcmelbourne
9:51 AM · Sep 18, 2020·TweetDeck

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A significant drop in the unknown trigger today. Statewide (which is also Vic Metro as Vic Regional is 0) from 84 to 73.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Update on Vic trigger graphs:







PLus cases per day:

 

[jase05]

There seems to be some concerns with regards to the Casey Cluster and people not coming forward for testing. Perhaps another testing blitz is needed

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There seems to be some concerns with regards to the Casey Cluster and people not coming forward for testing. Perhaps another testing blitz is needed

I just spoke to one of my sisters and I emphasise that this is not confirmed and so we will give this the status of a rumour.

She lives in City of Casey and is within 1km of two particular religious facilities of different faiths, but which are adjacent. What the locals are saying is that worshippers have been booked by police for travelling upto 40km to attend services and that a number of worshippers are in the Casey Cluster.

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH Reports"

NSW has recorded six new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, but only one is locally acquired.

The case had attended Liverpool Hospital and was already in isolation. There are now 22 cases linked to a cluster across Liverpool and Concord hospital emergency departments which began when a staff member worked at both facilities while infectious.

The state recorded 16,843 tests during the reporting period, a small drop on numbers above 20,000 seen for the past two days.

A case in a person living on the NSW-Victoria border reported yesterday is still under investigation. The person, who lives in the Murrumbidgee area, has tested positive but subsequently returned a negative test.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

COVID LIVE


@covidliveau
45 new #COVID19Aus cases in

Victoria (+42 total) • 32 linked to outbreaks/complex cases • 13 under investigation - 3 reclassified 920 active cases (-27) + 15,910 tests 5 deaths

90 hospitalised (-7) 11 ICU (-1)
12:10 PM · Sep 18, 2020

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From Vic Presser.

Casey Cluster.

34 cases in 5 households. Household members have visited households outside of 5kms

 

[jakeseven7]

I just spoke to one of my sisters and I emphasise that this is not confirmed and so we will give this the status of a rumour.

She lives in City of Casey and is within 1km of two particular religious facilities of different faiths, but which are adjacent. What the locals are saying is that worshippers have been booked by police for travelling upto 40km to attend services and that a number of worshippers are in the Casey Cluster.

Great presentation by DHHS on exactly what they are doing in Casey in the press conference today, really seems like they have learned their lessons. Local agencies in there alongside Monash Health, they have a very clear picture of what has gone on and they are getting really good testing rates in the area as well which is positive.

They didn't mention your rumour of worship, but did say households have been mixing in other households and outside of the 5km zone. A lot were in workplaces though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Great presentation by DHHS on exactly what they are doing in Casey in the press conference today, really seems like they have learned their lessons. Local agencies in there alongside Monash Health, they have a very clear picture of what has gone on and they are getting really good testing rates in the area as well which is positive.

They didn't mention your rumour of worship, but did say households have been mixing in other households and outside of the 5km zone. A lot were in workplaces though.

The rumour was more a concern that there may be transmission from those in the cluster to further afield. ie future cases. If so this would be yet to show up.

But also yes this is why I emphasised it was a rumour rather than fact. If social distancing was practiced properly there would be no transmission.


You can also take it as a positive sign that they are cracking down on the 5km movement rule in Casey.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A lot were in workplaces though.

Yes.

Vawdrey Australia had a second spike commencing on 12 September. This has taken it up from 49 to 64 cases.

This took off at the same time as Docklands Studio (The Masked Singer) which got all the media attention, but which only grew to 17 cases.

Dandenong Police Station cluster has also climbed slowly to 16.

Outside of the Casey Region the significant clusters that have still been growing recently are mainly aged care clusters. Footscray Hospital is a newish cluster of 13 though.


Time series of Victoria's largest clusters
Last update: 10:20pm, 17 September 2020.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Woo hoo ACT is now allowed to fly to Queensland (well from next week!). Now to talk Mr FM into a holiday

 

[jakeseven7]

Woo hoo ACT is now allowed to fly to Queensland (well from next week!). Now to talk Mr FM into a holiday

A workmate has already booked and said the airfares are not cheap!!

I'll put money on QLD backflipping on NSW in the next few weeks too, the amount of damage it is doing to the government up here is going to force the issue. Plus of course NSW cases are beyond low and controlled.

 

[jakeseven7]

Another good step towards freer movement of people, to help assist states that are very worried about their ability to manage once borders are reopened (WA, QLD, TAS, SA, NT mostly will benefit as NSW/ACT and VIC already have in place)

And about time National Cabinet started thinking nationally. Slowly getting there. Less of the premiers squawking about themselves today.

Good to see some actual real steps towards working together and opening up occurring though.

----

NSW tracing approach agreed to be used nationwide

A nationally consistent approach to contact tracing based on the success of NSW will be rolled out across Australia to prevent future COVID-19 outbreaks from spiralling out of control.

Airlines will also be subject to a new mandatory data collection regime, to plug holes in contact tracing by ensuring health authorities can quickly track down passengers on domestic flights between states and territories.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced after Friday's national cabinet meeting that the lessons learned during Victorian health authorities' meeting with their NSW counterparts last week would be "spread across all the other states and territories."

"It was also agreed today that the Commonwealth would lead an initiative to connect all the digital systems that the states and territories are using, so they can interact with each other," Mr Morrison told reporters in Sydney.

"We will develop a digital overlay across all those systems, which will mean that if there were to be an outbreak in a particular place, what that means is that we would be able to swarm, harness the tracing capabilities of more states and territories, to plug into the tracing work that is being done in that particular jurisdiction."

Mr Morrison commended Victoria for its decision to upgrade its contact tracing system. "We've seen that working in particular just in these last few days, as they have been dealing with a particular outbreak," he said. "What we've seen is a lifting of the bar with the tracing capacity, and we welcome that in Victoria."

Mr Morrison said all states and territories must be prepared to quickly activate contact tracing in the case of an outbreak.

As it happened: International arrival caps increased as Victoria records 45 new COVID-19 cases; QLD border to reopen to ACT as Australian death toll jumps to 839

National cabinet met today to discuss hotel quarantine arrangements for new international arrival caps as well as a definition of a hotspot.

www.theage.com.au

 

[VPS]

Just talking to someone who wants her daughter to come back to SA from Vic where she is studying.

SA is not allowing any Victorians to come to SA so she is flying to Darwin and doing 2 weeks quarantine up there and then flying to Adelaide. The world has gone mad!!