Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

The maths printed in the media would say one carrier not exhibiting symptoms can spread to 400 other persons within a matter of days if social distancing is not observed. Those infected will not necessarily display any symptoms with 7-10 days. A spike can pop up anytime unless we batten down the hatches for a few weeks more.

But it is being observed.

And while the maths may say that, the empirical evidence in Austrlia indicates that this simply is not happening We have also not had one case that I am aware of an asymptomatic carrier spreading it to large numbers of people in Australia. We have had some cases where the source of the infection was not known, but there as not been clustering to suggest that there was an asymptomatic carrier.

All carriers only have a limited period that they are contagious for as well. So any asymptomatic carrier only has a limited time to infect others.

Yes we need to keep up the good practices. But if we can have a period of no new cases then it is not likely to suddenly pop up.

CV19 thrives on being passed from person to person, and it needs to passed on to survive.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

or South Africa come out of hard, early stage lockdown.

South Africa?

I am not sure if you have travelled there, but with their slum areas it has no chance of it being eradicated there with social distancing measures. In South Africa there is no way they can successfully have a lockdown.

Space is a luxury of an affluent society.

 

[N860CR]

South Africa?

I am not sure if you have travelled there, but with their slum areas it has no chance of it being eradicated.

I'm South African, and go 4 times a year. But thanks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The current model (and I speak about NSW) where we start emptying the hospitals, closing wards and standing down staff "because we're empty" seems like we are just delaying things.

I think you are overstating things. I am in Vic and know our hospitals here, but I doubt if NSW are totally all their capacity. Much more likely they are winding back as they have geared up fora flood which simply has not happened.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm South African, and go 4 times a year. But thanks.

Good, then why would you believe that social distancing could work there to eradicate CV 19?

I personally cannot rationalise how CV 19 can do anything but run rampant in the poorer areas in South Africa until a vaccine comes out.

 

[N860CR]

I think you are overstating things. I am in Vic and know our hospitals here, but I doubt if NSW are totally all their capacity. Much more likely they are winding back as they have geared up fora flood which simply has not happened.

Yep which is exactly what I've said, and it's not a way to handle a "pandemic".

Look I'm not going to argue with you. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Mine, as I said, is that we cannot simply sit on our hands and say we will totally kill this virus and can live a long and happy future totally closed off from the rest of the world. I, and numerous medical professionals would agree, feel it is stupid to be closing hospital wards and standing down staff as some kind of "victory". Ignore the virus... we'll have big issues in a few months with people suffering from new conditions caused by delayed elective surgery!

Post automatically merged: Apr 12, 2020

Good, then why would you believe that social distancing could work there to eradicate CV 19?

I personally cannot rationalise how CV 19 can do anything but run rampant in the poorer areas in South Africa until a vaccine comes out.

As I said, and I feel I am repeating myself a lot, that's something to look at when lockdown ends at the end of April.

I really hope our politicians aren't sitting on their hands hoping for a vaccine, as that remains an outside chance.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The maths printed in the media would say one carrier not exhibiting symptoms can spread to 400 other persons within a matter of days if social distancing is not observed. Those infected will not necessarily display any symptoms with 7-10 days. A spike can pop up anytime unless we batten down the hatches for a few weeks more.

With the modelling too, all the modelling originally assumed that social distancing would not be down well by the population. But it has been.

ie

In the USA. No social distancing and control was meant to have 1-2 million dead.

50% effective social distancing was meant to upto 240,000 dead

Based on how well americans have to date embraced social distancing they are now estimated 60,000 dead (now if the USA had acted decisively well and much earlier the death toll would have been much lower than 60,000).


The modelling with NY State also has been quite instructive in this., and despite their large death toll social distancing has after a very poor start placed the handbrake on and is bring them back from the abyss.

 

[p--and--t]

Look I'm not going to argue with you. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Mine, as I said, is that we cannot simply sit on our hands and say we will totally kill this virus and can live a long and happy future totally closed off from the rest of the world. I, and numerous medical professionals would agree, feel it is stupid to be closing hospital wards and standing down staff as some kind of "victory". Ignore the virus... we'll have big issues in a few months with people suffering from new conditions caused by delayed elective surgery!

My expectation, with absolutely no inside information to support it, is that as soon as the feds have sufficient confidence we have had negligible increases for 3-4 weeks and the medical system absolutely won't be overrun due to existing controls, the private hospitals will either be handed back or utilised to reduce waiting lists to at least the same levels before the outbreak.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yep which is exactly what I've said, and it's not a way to handle a "pandemic".

Look I'm not going to argue with you. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Mine, as I said, is that we cannot simply sit on our hands and say we will totally kill this virus and can live a long and happy future totally closed off from the rest of the world. I, and numerous medical professionals would agree, feel it is stupid to be closing hospital wards and standing down staff as some kind of "victory". Ignore the virus... we'll have big issues in a few months with people suffering from new conditions caused by delayed elective surgery!

Why closed off? You may be unaware but sea and air freight is still occurring. Rich Chinese are munching on fresh WA lobsters that have just been flown out. Trade can still occur even if leisure travel cannot. China also needs our raw materials and our mining industry can supply it. Many countries need our food and we can export it.

You are being glib with your happy future comment. But we can in Bubble Australia make the best of it until a vaccine is deployed. There is no reason why in a staged way jobs and practices cannot be re-activated, all in a way that incorporates appropriate public health measures.

I don't know what NSW are doing (You seem to implying that in NSW they are massively closing down everything. That simply is not the case here) but here in Vic my daughter works in a respiratory hospital ward and is treating some of our very few CV 19 patients in this state. Here in Vic the wards are not being totally closed down like you state NSW are, but our hospitals are very quiet. New wards and ICU beds were opened. A whole hospital recommissioned. Another brought forward. There is a large capacity to treat CV 19 patients. But all the extra capacity is simply not being used.

I would not surprise that some nurses may have their hours reduced as a lot of normal patients are not being treated at present. On the other hand squash CV 19 and start saving lives by resuming more normal treatments at our hospitals and medical facilities including dental practices.



I also do not know why you position is that the authorities are sitting on their hands. There is a huge amount of contact tracing going on. Testing is still occurring and is being expanded. When activities are re-activated they will need to remain vigilant and our Border Forces will need to lift their game and will also need to be better resourced.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As I said, and I feel I am repeating myself a lot, that's something to look at when lockdown ends at the end of April.

I have said that if current trends remain, and that zero new local transmission cases is achieved fora period of time that by the end of April that we will be in position to start to re-activate things in a staged way from May.

I would hope that our Government would modelling various what-if scenarios now, rather than just waiting till it happens before they consider how and at what rate things can be re-activated.

For example some treatments like kidney transplants have been on hold. Just waiting is most likely causing deaths or other negative health outcomes. Then there is the negative economic impacts.


Once it is safe to re-activate we need to do so.

 

[kyle]

I think you are overstating things. I am in Vic and know our hospitals here, but I doubt if NSW are totally all their capacity. Much more likely they are winding back as they have geared up fora flood which simply has not happened.

I thought the NSW hospitals (or at least one of them) wanted to save on Easter extra pay...

 

[N860CR]

I thought the NSW hospitals (or at least one of them) wanted to save on Easter extra pay...

One of them in Sydney certainly did. But it’s dragging on a bit longer than that.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Another week, sort of, and it’s flutracking day

Interesting facebook video here about this year’s flu season with some commentary about COVID-19 and relaxing the restrictions

https://www.facebook.com/Flutracking/posts/10156842976327676

For 2020, early days yet, but flu has gone the same way as the stock market, for the moment at least.

 

[Pushka]

@RooFlyer - I read in the media today that the issue in the Tassie Health service (NW?) is the result of a Ruby Princess Cruise passenger community spread. Is that your understanding? Or maybe @drron knows as well.

 

[get me outta here]

2.46 pm Today : Ruby Princess spreader likely a food service worker
NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller said it’s likely the person who spread COVID-19 amongst the Ruby Princess cruise ship was a crew member who served food
https://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/javascript:void(0);
NSW Health Acting Director Dr Christine Selvey has confirmed that two more Ruby Princess passengers have died.

“That is not proven as in fact, but that would seem to be the most obvious point of transmission,” said Mr Fuller.
The ship is set to part Australian waters on Wednesday.
“Just to be clear, we're not going to run the ship out of the port if there's multiple sick people who require a higher degree of medical assistance,” Mr Fuller said.
He also said there could be further investigations into the cruise ship which has caused the death of 16 people.
NSW Police are working with Carnival Australia, the company in charge of the Ruby Princess, and foreign consulates to get crew members home.
Mr Fuller said offers of repatriation had been made to a number of crew members, but many had opted to stay on the ship.
The parties are weighing up several options, including charter flights. “There are a range of options that we can take in relation to that, but it really comes down to the health of the individual, and those who have been swabbed for either corona positive or negative,” he said.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

2.46 pm Today : Ruby Princess spreader likely a food service worker
NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller said it’s likely the person who spread COVID-19 amongst the Ruby Princess cruise ship was a crew member who served food
https://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/javascript:void(0);
NSW Health Acting Director Dr Christine Selvey has confirmed that two more Ruby Princess passengers have died.

“That is not proven as in fact, but that would seem to be the most obvious point of transmission,” said Mr Fuller.
The ship is set to part Australian waters on Wednesday.
“Just to be clear, we're not going to run the ship out of the port if there's multiple sick people who require a higher degree of medical assistance,” Mr Fuller said.
He also said there could be further investigations into the cruise ship which has caused the death of 16 people.
NSW Police are working with Carnival Australia, the company in charge of the Ruby Princess, and foreign consulates to get crew members home.
Mr Fuller said offers of repatriation had been made to a number of crew members, but many had opted to stay on the ship.
The parties are weighing up several options, including charter flights. “There are a range of options that we can take in relation to that, but it really comes down to the health of the individual, and those who have been swabbed for either corona positive or negative,” he said.

On the Diamond Princess fomite transmission was thought to have been a main cause of transmission. So this would be consistent with that.

 

[OZDUCK]

Of the six cases reported in W.A. yesterday four were from our unwelcome visitor - the German (Registered in Nassau of course) Cruise Ship 'Artania'. One from the 'Costa Victoria' and one who is a close contact of an overseas traveler.

 

[Pushka]

2.46 pm Today : Ruby Princess spreader likely a food service worker
NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller said it’s likely the person who spread COVID-19 amongst the Ruby Princess cruise ship was a crew member who served food
https://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/javascript:void(0);
NSW Health Acting Director Dr Christine Selvey has confirmed that two more Ruby Princess passengers have died.

“That is not proven as in fact, but that would seem to be the most obvious point of transmission,” said Mr Fuller.
The ship is set to part Australian waters on Wednesday.
“Just to be clear, we're not going to run the ship out of the port if there's multiple sick people who require a higher degree of medical assistance,” Mr Fuller said.
He also said there could be further investigations into the cruise ship which has caused the death of 16 people.
NSW Police are working with Carnival Australia, the company in charge of the Ruby Princess, and foreign consulates to get crew members home.
Mr Fuller said offers of repatriation had been made to a number of crew members, but many had opted to stay on the ship.
The parties are weighing up several options, including charter flights. “There are a range of options that we can take in relation to that, but it really comes down to the health of the individual, and those who have been swabbed for either corona positive or negative,” he said.

Carnival Australia is just a business name and not a legal entity. Interesting re the crew member. Means the cruise before must also have had it.

 

[drron]

It is likely that the NWRH outbreak was due to a Ruby Princess passenger.She was the first death in Tasmania.At that stage the other cases in the North west were in Devonport.One was a Community Health worker.

Arrest threat as Tasmania restricts travel, records first COVID-19 death

Tasmania records its first coronavirus death after a woman in her 80s dies in hospital in the state's north-west, with the state's case tally rising by three to 69.

www.abc.net.au

 

[get me outta here]

All the authorities involved with the Ruby P will never live this down and every day there’s a new disaster.

It is likely that the NWRH outbreak was due to a Ruby Princess passenger.She was the first death in Tasmania.At that stage the other cases in the North west were in Devonport.One was a Community Health worker.

Arrest threat as Tasmania restricts travel, records first COVID-19 death

Tasmania records its first coronavirus death after a woman in her 80s dies in hospital in the state's north-west, with the state's case tally rising by three to 69.

www.abc.net.au