Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

W.A. had 3 cases - 2 from Cruise Ships and 1 origin unknown at present. The Premier has indicated that while some restrictions may be reviewed in a month the State border closure is likely to be in place for 6 months.

Based on today's (edited )case figures one would have to say why?

The current trend would seem to suggest that by the end of April that there will be virtually no new cases from local transmission, and that any new cases will be from people arriving into Australia who will all go into 14 day quarantine.

So if the current trend remains while a period of caution is good, 6 months would seem to be pain with no gain?

 

[Pushka]

Based on toady's case figures one would have to say why?

The current trend would seem to suggest that by the end of April that there will be virtually no new cases from local transmission, and that any new cases will be from people arriving into Australia who will all go into 14 day quarantine.

So if the current trend remains while a period of caution is good, 6 months would seem to be pain with no gain?

I think he's taking the tack that if he said that in the next few weeks that restrictions would ease, then people might become complacent. And also if he reduces restrictions earlier than that he's seen as the good guy. Promise little, and then over deliver.

 

[p--and--t]

Based on toady's case figures one would have to say why?

The current trend would seem to suggest that by the end of April that there will be virtually no new cases from local transmission, and that any new cases will be from people arriving into Australia who will all go into 14 day quarantine.

So if the current trend remains while a period of caution is good, 6 months would seem to be pain with no gain?

a bit of respect please, no need to call anyone a toady.

 

[Himeno]

No new cases in Canberra today. Count dropped 1 to 102 after additional testing confirmed one of the under investigation cases didn't have Covid-19.

 

[Pushka]

So what is up with the Baggage handler issue at Adelaide airport? Now 750 workers from Qantas etc are in immediate quarantine. I know the lady next door works at Qantas and she's been out and about for the last couple of weeks. Seems a bit late?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So what is up with the Baggage handler issue at Adelaide airport? Now 750 workers from Qantas etc are in immediate quarantine. I know the lady next door works at Qantas and she's been out and about for the last couple of weeks. Seems a bit late?

Quarantine, or have they been told to self-isolate?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Quarantine, or have they been told to self-isolate?

Ok. Google they are self-isolating and also they are any Qantas staff member who may have come in contact with the baggage handlers.

Sounds precautionary.

 

[Pushka]

Quarantine, or have they been told to self-isolate?

Headline and opening paragraph says quarantine but the text says self isolate for 14 days. I'll post the link but it's paywalled.

No Cookies | The Advertiser

No Cookies

www.adelaidenow.com.au

 

[N860CR]

I must say that all this numeric reporting is starting to remind me of a certain US president and the obsession with TV ratings.

The number of “positive” cases is at the point where it’s largely irrelevant without context. I’m not sure why these politicians feel the need to continue with the daily reports... although that goes back to the TV ratings point!

 

[moa999]

It's Easter. Stats go into hard to compare era.

And we will in the next few days get the Greg Mortimer (cruise boat from Antarctica) whose 100+ passengers just landed in Melbourne added. As I understand these people should be added to their normal residential address in the stats, even though they will all be well quarantined in Melbourne

 

[serfty]

Today's figures from the ABC:

Figures show 3,141 people have recovered from the disease, leaving 3,095 confirmed cases still current or “active”.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's Easter. Stats go into hard to compare era.

And we will in the next few days get the Greg Mortimer (cruise boat from Antarctica) whose 100+ passengers just landed in Melbourne added. As I understand these people should be added to their normal residential address in the stats, even though they will all be well quarantined in Melbourne

Today Australia only had 25 cases in total = People from overseas +local transmission.

The number of local transmission will have been very low today then.

Overseas cases are not relevant in terms of spread as all our now quarantined.

So unless something surprising happens Australia, like Greenland already has, seems set to achieve eradication in the very near future..

 

[p--and--t]

Today Australia only had 25 cases in total = People from overseas +local transmission.

The number of local transmission will have been very low today then.

Overseas cases are not relevant in terms of spread as all our now quarantined.

So unless something surprising happens Australia, like Greenland already has, seems set to achieve eradication in the very near future..

That can't be accurate seeing 70 infected people (plus 30 not infected) landed on one plane alone today into Melbourne from South America and several more planes from other origins scheduled to arrive within hours.

 

[N860CR]

So unless something surprising happens Australia, like Greenland already has, seems set to achieve eradication in the very near future..

It's a really nice thought... but I cannot see that happening here. We are not quite like Greenland. The levels of cases in this country are likely to be far more than reported and are being passed around daily undetected. The "numbers" that are being politically reported only come to exist when somebody is experience symptoms harsh enough to warrant selective testing.

I'd love to think it's possible that we can eradicate the virus (and will happily come here and say "hey you were all right" if we do), but I just don't see how it's possible. I'm concerned that by locking people up, limiting testing and now closing hospital wards and standing down staff because facilities are empty, we are simply kicking the can down the road.

 

[RooFlyer]

Today Australia only had 25 cases in total = People from overseas +local transmission.

The number of local transmission will have been very low today then.

Almost half the new cases were in NW Tasmania where there has been a high rate of community transmission for the past 4 days or so. 2 hospitals closed and major community lockdown just announced.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's a really nice thought... but I cannot see that happening here. We are not quite like Greenland. The levels of cases in this country are likely to be far more than reported

Why is it likely far more than reported? 80% would have symptoms. 20% serious symptoms including dying. so people not tested but who have CV 19 are going to show up.

1/ As the testing to date has not shown much community spread

2/ Undetected cases will not stay that way as most people they infect even if the spreader was asymptomatic will have symptoms and will thus will then be detected.

There are very few mystery cases showing up.

and are being passed around daily undetected. The "numbers" that are being politically reported only come to exist when somebody is experience symptoms harsh enough to warrant selective testing.

As above these cases are simply not showing up in large numbers . They are few.

I'd love to think it's possible that we can eradicate the virus (and will happily come here and say "hey you were all right" if we do), but I just don't see how it's possible. I'm concerned that by locking people up, limiting testing and now closing hospital wards and standing down staff because facilities are empty, we are simply kicking the can down the road.

I go by the numbers. Testing is not showing significant spread, and unknown cases of community transmission are not showing up in large numbers. Indeed today the total numbers from all sources was only 25.

Post automatically merged: Apr 12, 2020

Almost half the new cases were in NW Tasmania where there has been a high rate of community transmission for the past 4 days or so. 2 hospitals closed and major community lockdown just announced.

Which is what will happen with any hotspot now. It will be jumped on to be squashed. With so few cases now great attention can be given to any new case that presents.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

, but I just don't see how it's possible.

CV19 has to be close to be transmitted, or a person needs to be be where an infected and contagious person was recently.

Until new cases drop to zero social (physical) distancing is being maintained, as is handwashing etc. This makes it hard for even an asymptomatic carrier to infect another.

There are now very few carriers.

 

[moa999]

Agreed. Even in backpacker central Bondi which had a lot of early community transmission cases, and now has a dedicated testing facility, there have only been 4 cases in the past 7 days.

COVID-19 NSW

See the latest local COVID-19 information for your postcode/suburb/council in New South Wales.

covid19nsw.ethan.link

That's isolation working.

Will we have breakouts. Absolutely. But I think we are close to being on top of most of them.

As noted above the Greg Mortimer positives which will show up in the next few days need to be ignored.

 

[p--and--t]

CV19 has to be close to be transmitted, or a person needs to be be where an infected and contagious person was recently.

Until new cases drop to zero social (physical) distancing is being maintained, as is handwashing etc. This makes it hard for even an asymptomatic carrier to infect another.

There are now very few carriers.

The maths printed in the media would say one carrier not exhibiting symptoms can spread to 400 other persons within a matter of days if social distancing is not observed. Those infected will not necessarily display any symptoms with 7-10 days. A spike can pop up anytime unless we batten down the hatches for a few weeks more.

 

[N860CR]

CV19 has to be close to be transmitted, or a person needs to be be where an infected and contagious person was recently.

Until new cases drop to zero social (physical) distancing is being maintained, as is handwashing etc. This makes it hard for even an asymptomatic carrier to infect another.

There are now very few carriers.

As I said, I really hope you're right.

My only concern at the moment (and I'm getting it from a few in the medical community - including one in the RPA "COVID Clinic") is that the government is getting bogged down in numbers and doesn't seem to have a plan for what happens next other than "just report the numbers"!

My gut feeling is that there is virtually no chance of totally killing the virus. We'll have a better idea of how that goes when say NZ or South Africa come out of hard, early stage lockdown. I would think we are better off just keeping the hospitals at capacity and slowly treating those who need treatment (and maybe restricting at risk people to "stay at home"). The current model (and I speak about NSW) where we start emptying the hospitals, closing wards and standing down staff "because we're empty" seems like we are just delaying things.