Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[MelMel]

I am not sure what you are looking at, but for Victoria, across all LGA's which is the whole state Active Cases is a total reduction of 86.

View attachment 228178
[/From this page click on LGA bar at the top then click view all LGA’s the numbers don’t equate, probably just a glitch

Post automatically merged: Sep 21, 2020

Sorry, messed up reply. From the page you showed click on the LGA bar then click view all LGA

 

[Pushka]

Sort of proves the point. Ethnicity not disclosed, media ignores it. Ethnicity disclosed, they go into a frenzy.

Clearly it depends on state location. SA has had a bit of press about the Colac group because it is near to our border and the issue of our border closure. Family of Five? It's Melbourne. Gets mushed around with all the other clusters in general and of not great local interest. Nothing to do with race. In fact I didn't know any details of ethnicity until I read about it on AFF. As I mentioned the other day. It's just not being reported in SA.

 

[Pete98765432]

Clearly it depends on state location. SA has had a bit of press about the Colac group because it is near to our border and the issue of our border closure. Family of Five? It's Melbourne. Gets mushed around with all the other clusters in general and of not great local interest. Nothing to do with race. In fact I didn't know any details of ethnicity until I read about it on AFF. As I mentioned the other day. It's just not being reported in SA.

I in no way meant to infer that ethnicity plays into your opinion. However, I think it clearly does play into the reaction of Andrew Bolt and his Herald Sun colleagues.

 

[Pushka]

I in no way meant to infer that ethnicity plays into your opinion. However, I think it clearly does play into the reaction of Andrew Bolt and his Herald Sun colleagues.

Luckily our exposure to Bolt is extremely limited here in SA. See, SA is a great place to live

 

[MelMel]

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With SA reporting no new cases, it’s 16 new cases nationally, including 4 being international quarantine.

 

[p--and--t]

Luckily our exposure to Bolt is extremely limited here in SA. See, SA is a great place to live

I spent the first 50 years of my life in SA, certainly not free from racism then or today. Not so blatant nowadays, but still a continuous undercurrent.

As a Caucasian of UK lineage, I see racism in various forms around me often and have got to experience it through reverse racism in Melbourne and various cities in my travels.

[Don't get me started on Bolt or the Murdoch press.]

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch

- 1 in the past 14 days
- 7 in the period 15-28 days
- 23 older than 28 days but since Crossroads emerged

 

[Pete98765432]

See, SA is a great place to live

I can judge that for myself next week!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Post automatically merged: Sep 21, 2020

Sorry, messed up reply. From the page you showed click on the LGA bar then click view all LGA

You need to to look at the Active Cases table.

Total up far right and you get a change in Active Cases of 86

- COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoria

covidlive.com.au

 

[MelMel]

Still look like 86 to me. Are you looking at the Active Cases table?
View attachment 228181

- COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoria

covidlive.com.au

I’m looking at “cases” across all LGA’s New cases/case increase is greater than today’s total. I think someone has just entered the wrong figures

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’m looking at “cases” across all LGA’s New cases/case increase is greater than today’s total. I think someone has just entered the wrong figures View attachment 228182

The far right column of that table shows the change in coughulative cases in the last 24hrs and so includes new daily cases AND all corrections to previous case data. ie duplications, errors, moving a case from one LGA to another etc etc and this is why numbers can be both negative and positive.

ie The numbers are not just new cases today.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

#COVID19VicData: Yesterday there were 28 new cases & the loss of 3 lives reported. Our thoughts are with all affected. The 14 day rolling average & number of cases with unknown source are down from yesterday as we move toward COVID Normal. Info https://dhhs.vic.gov.au/averages-easing-restrictions-covid-19… #COVID19Vic

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While the daily total is up 14 day averages are still decreasing. Daily totals are likely to keep bouncing around.

Update on Vic Graphs:








Vic 14 day average cases (dotted line) and also daily cases (bars).

 

[Pushka]

But the daily average will start to increase if the actual daily rate increases. So it's kind of catch up.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But the daily average will start to increase if the actual daily rate increases. So it's kind of catch up.

That is one negative way to to look at things.

Graphs above show how daily cases bounce around and so looking at any one day's data alone is pretty pointless.

So personally I will look at the 14 day trends rather than reacting to only one day's worth of data.

Also In the last 14 days there have only been 3 days with lower new case totals than today.

 

[blackcat20]

But the daily average will start to increase if the actual daily rate increases. So it's kind of catch up.

Not if we're dropping higher numbers off the back of the 14 days; as long as the new number is lower than the number from 14 days ago then we're ok.

 

[Pushka]

Not if we're dropping higher numbers off the back of the 14 days; as long as the new number is lower than the number from 14 days ago then we're ok.

So the daily average is a function of active cases and not the average of new daily cases then?

Post automatically merged: Sep 22, 2020

That is one negative way to to look at things.

Ah no. It's the way the averages work surely.

 

[dajop]

Ah no. It's the way the averages work surely.

Averages, yes. But we’re talking about a “rolling average”.

As long as the number of new cases today exceeds the number of new cases 15 days ago, the 14 day average will continue to come down. If the number of new cases on a given day exceeds the number of new cases 15 days prior then the 14 day average will rise then.

 

[Pushka]

Averages, yes. But we’re talking about a “rolling average”.

As long as the number of new cases today exceeds the number of new cases 15 days ago, the 14 day average will continue to come down. If the number of new cases on a given day exceeds the number of new cases 15 days prior then the 14 day average will rise then.

Yes I get all that. But the principle remains the same in influencing the average as it does a rolling average. If the number on a given day/future days is above the cases 14 days ago then so does the rolling average increase a little. And as there were a couple of days of very low figures it is quite possible for that to occur if later days are higher again. AKA the apparent Wednesday spike. It is hardly a negative comment but a quite possible scenario.