Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

Yes I get all that. But the principle remains the same in influencing the average as it does a rolling average. If the number on a given day/future days is above the cases 14 days ago then so does the rolling average increase a little. And as there were a couple of days of very low figures it is quite possible for that to occur if later days are higher again. AKA the apparent Wednesday spike. It is hardly a negative comment but a quite possible scenario.

I think we’re saying the same thing, but the number 15 days ago is the key, not 14 days.

For simplicity let’s say the rolling average is over 10 days ....

New cases over 10 days of 100, 10, 20, 10, 15, 15, 10, 20, 10, 20 gives a rolling average of 23 per day. The next day the cases jump to 60. The rolling average will come down to 19 per day (as the 100 is replaced by the 60) even though the last day saw a big jump. Now if the 60 is maintained the next day, the rolling average will of course increase.

 

[serfty]

So the daily average is a function of active cases and not the average of new daily cases then?

No, it is indeed the average of new daily cases as per @dajop's post.

If you were looking at, say, a rolling average of 'current active' cases, today's figure would be much higher and would be affected by bother new active cases and the daily number of those who have been deemed to have recovered from COVID-19.

 

[Pushka]

I think we’re saying the same thing, but the number 15 days ago is the key, not 14 days.

For simplicity let’s say the rolling average is over 10 days ....

New cases over 10 days of 100, 10, 20, 10, 15, 15, 10, 20, 10, 20 gives a rolling average of 23 per day. The next day the cases jump to 60. The rolling average will come down to 19 per day (as the 100 is replaced by the 60) even though the last day saw a big jump. Now if the 60 is maintained the next day, the rolling average will of course increase.

Yes we are. Just the different marker day that starts the roll. And which may become problematic when the marker day is small and just some subsequent days spike a little. Let's hope that statistic, if it occurs, doesn't create a frenzy amongst the key policy makers. Currently the taxi driver in NSW is creating a frenzy in SA about releasing the border.

 

[blackcat20]

Only 6 of todays Vic cases are currently source unknown.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes we are. Just the different marker day that starts the roll. And which may become problematic when the marker day is small and just some subsequent days spike a little. Let's hope that statistic, if it occurs, doesn't create a frenzy amongst the key policy makers. Currently the taxi driver in NSW is creating a frenzy in SA about releasing the border.

For goodness sakes its 9 potential contacts.... There will always be something that will pop up. What if the borders were already open and then the taxi happened? What are they going to do, shut the border again? Is the SA health and contact tracing capability that poor that they need to be that extreme?

 

[N860CR]

For goodness sakes its 9 potential contacts.... There will always be something that will pop up. What if the borders were already open and then the taxi happened? What are they going to do, shut the border again? Is the SA health and contact tracing capability that poor that they need to be that extreme?

I was going to say... it’s not like taxis have a revolving door at the moment. My poor guy drives from manly to pick me up in newtown for a $20 fare to domestic. 9 contacts sounds like this guy was pretty busy!

 

[Pushka]

For goodness sakes its 9 potential contacts.... There will always be something that will pop up. What if the borders were already open and then the taxi happened? What are they going to do, shut the border again? Is the SA health and contact tracing capability that poor that they need to be that extreme?

Don’t tell me. I don’t make those decisions! I’m just the messenger here. . Our contact tracing is rather excellent btw.

However - announcement just made - SA is open to NSW as from midnight tomorrow. Just Victoria to go now.

 

[Lynda2475]

Woohoo no local cases!


SMH.com.au also reports " NSW has 77 coronavirus patients receiving treatment. Of these, three are in ICU and one is on a ventilator. "

 

[jakeseven7]

I was going to say... it’s not like taxis have a revolving door at the moment. My poor guy drives from manly to pick me up in newtown for a $20 fare to domestic. 9 contacts sounds like this guy was pretty busy!

Not really, check the dates out. Thankfully (in a way) he was not very busy.

 

[Lynda2475]

Not really, check the dates out. Thankfully (in a way) he was not very busy.

The 9 they are trying to find were picked up from ranks and paid cash. Dr Chant mentioned that they were able to contact all his other rides because they either booked online or paid with a credit card. So the banks must be passing on details of the card owner.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Only 6 of todays Vic cases are currently source unknown.

The 6 in today's figures refers to 6 under investigation .

Within 48 hours some, or all of these, are likely to be classified (ie Unknown or known). Some may remain under investigation for a longer period.

2 local unknown community transmission cases have been added to that total, but these are from before the last 24 hours as of today's 28, 22 were linked to outbreaks or complex cases with 6 under investigation = 28 . 3 were reclassified and so daily cases total becomes 25 (rather than 28 New cases).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I posted earlier the graph showing cases per day (repeated below) in Victoria.

Here is a blow up of the last 14 days. One can see in both graphs how the numbers bounce around up and down in magnitude a lot from day to day. This is why using a 14 day or 7 day rolling average is a lot more meaningful.

I would also observe that yesterday in Vic there were 2/3 the tests results announced compared to today.

As an example have you ever tried to lose weight? If so you may have weighed yourself each day and noted how your weight went both up and down each day. But if you compared your weight say only just once per week on the same day each week that hopefully you had a steady weight loss

 

[Flying mermaid]

In another good piece of news Canberra Airport is going back to being open 7 days a week and had their busiest Monday in months yesterday.

 

[SydneySwan]

Apparently SA is opening to NSW visitors from midnight tomorrow. Need to apply for a visa but no quarantine. Take that AP!

 

[Pushka]

Apparently SA is opening to NSW visitors from midnight tomorrow. Need to apply for a visa but no quarantine. Take that AP!

Even SA residents returning from Sydney for a day trip (status run ) need to apply for the return Visa. Who would ever have believed such a thing possible in 2019.

 

[dajop]

Even SA residents returning from Sydney for a day trip (status run ) need to apply for the return Visa. Who would ever have believed such a thing possible in 2019.

Do they get stamped into your passport or are they e-visas?

 

[SydneySwan]

Even SA residents returning from Sydney for a day trip (status run ) need to apply for the return Visa. Who would ever have believed such a thing possible in 2019.

Isn’t that to prevent Adelaide to Sydney to Melbourne to Sydney to Adelaide trips?

 

[Lynda2475]

I notice in todays media announcements that WA is now pointing out where the international arrivals who have tested positive in quarantine usually reside. I'm not sure it is necessary to note that one of the 3 today isn't a WA resident. Im sure many of those in hotel quarantine in Sydney also reside in other states.

 

[jakeseven7]

I notice in todays media announcements that WA is now pointing out where the international arrivals who have tested positive in quarantine usually reside. I'm not sure it is necessary to note that one of the 3 today isn't a WA resident. Im sure many of those in hotel quarantine in Sydney also reside in other states.

Of course its not required, but its important to a certain event occurring in March in WA ;-)

 

[Pushka]

Isn’t that to prevent Adelaide to Sydney to Melbourne to Sydney to Adelaide trips?

Maybe but you still have to complete it even on direct flights from Qld and NT.