Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

The media (and many others) have totally lost the plot and don't seem to have a brain to share between themselves.

Chasing down the exact person who decided on private security guards is totally & utterly missing the point. Private security guards have been used in at least three states of Australia and others places overseas for that exact role and that decision is not what caused the problem.

The execution of hotel quarantine and the overall processes are what resulted in us being where we are. Who was allocated the job of managing the program ensuring contract conditions were being met. Who was the project manager reviewing where the "project" was at, and fine tuning the process so it operated effectively and smoothly. Who wrote the procedures to be followed, the precautions to be taken.

Whether state police, federal police, ADF, private security guards, prison wardens, or kindergarten teachers were used is totally irrelevant to making sure it doesn't happen again. None of the options that have been alluded to by various people with regard of the source of "guarding" are trained for an infectious medical containment process. Not even nurses in our hospitals were fully au fait on what to do until they received relevant training.

Anyone, regardless if from from your local high school kids through to a group of high ranking officers from the ADF would need to have been properly kitted out and trained on what to do and monitored - and that didn't happen. Whoever decided on what resource to use and sign the contract has buggerall to do with what we actually need to know.

Yawn agree, to be fair the media are only focussed on this because there is literally nothing else going on in Australia that is ‘interesting’ at the moment, to them at least.

And the people of VIC in the huge overwhelming majority clearly do not care anymore, are firmly with Team Dan/Brett and just want to move forward now.

I think this has been the biggest waste of time and resources, they’ve got their head now. Maybe they’ll get a few public servants who signed/agreed the scope of work in the contract, but didn’t make sure it was robust or monitor the roll out closely enough. Big deal. Hope it was worth it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309993847657828364

 

[lovetravellingoz]

16 and 2
Hoping Melbourne curfew ends tonight.

I think there will be little easing that allows more social mixing.

I suspect that any earlier extra easings will be workplace and job related. Plus maybe health services.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While the 14 day rolling average decreased today, the 7 day rolling averaged went up from 14.6 to 15.0.






Now one day's data is pretty irrelevant , over the last week new cases per day have been pretty flat. So we really want to see cases breaking through 10 to be in single digits.



We do not know what the unknown cases have been over the last week, only the last 14 days (Note this stat lags by 48 hours to allow time for new cases to be classified.) Now it is only one day, but the 14 day number of unknown cases has stayed at 31 now for two consecutive days. However when you combine that stat with (and the Health official will know the trend in unknown cases over the last 7 days which we do not) with the flattening in new cases per day then despite the 14 day average still dropping you get the situation where I doubt the Vic Gov would yet want to make any substantial easing of restrictions on social mixing.




Looking at the workplaces that have been reported to have new cases would however give the Gov to return more people to work in Covidsafe workplaces. Maybe not back to100%, but up from the 25% levels for example in construction.

 

[Pushka]

While the 14 day rolling average decreased today, the 7 day rolling averaged went up from 14.6 to 15.0.

Which is exactly what I suggested could happen a few days ago with the "peaks and troughs" occurring.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Which is exactly what I suggested could happen a few days ago with the "peaks and troughs" occurring.

If I recall correctly you were more concerned about the one day jump to 28 and that remains an outlier. The DHHS report later in the day had a real bulge in aged care cases and so I would tend to think that the 28 cases was not a true reflection of "new daily cases" but rather had some lag reporting within it.


Victoria has recorded 28 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,076.

The overall total has increased by 25 due to three cases being reclassified.​

​

Within Victoria, 24 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and four are under investigation.​

​

All of today’s 24 cases linked to outbreaks relate to aged care facilities, including residents, staff or close contacts.​

​

Aged care outbreaks with newly linked cases include Churches of Christ Care Arcadia Aged Care Facility, Mercy Place Parkville Aged Care Facility, Princeton View Aged Care Facility, Opal Hobsons Bay Aged Care Facility, Glendale Aged Care Facility, Estia Heidelberg Aged Care Facility, Embracia Moonee Valley Aged Care Facility, Mercy Place Templestowe, Estia Keilor Aged Care Facility, Doutta Galla Woornack Aged Care Facility and Blue Cross Ruckers Hill Aged Care Facility.​

I am more concerned with trends and so it is more the flattening over a full 8 days that I am looking at. I personally think it will keep slowing and will push into single digits.

 

[Pushka]

If I recall correctly you were more concerned about the one day jump to 28 and that remains an outlier. The DHHS report later in the day had a real bulge in aged acre and so I would tend to think that the 28 cases was not a true now of "new daily cases" but rather had some lag reporting within it.

Not really, blackcat20 explains what I was saying here

Not if we're dropping higher numbers off the back of the 14 days; as long as the new number is lower than the number from 14 days ago then we're ok.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not really, blackcat20 explains what I was saying here

Not at all. Whether you take a 14 day rolling average or a 7 day rolling average you still ignore any one days worth of data and look at the average.

With Blackcat's logic today's 16 of new cases replaced the 14 and that is why the 7 day average went up. In 14 days it replace 35 which is why it went down.

What the the 7 day rolling average does is to just focus on a briefer period.

As I have mentioned above I would believe that the day with 28 cases was an aberration. If that was a real spike in aged care of 24 cases on a single day then we most likely would have seen a lot more cases in aged care since, but we have not.

Also rolling averages will also experience periods of going sideways, or even back up. It is just that their movements will be "smoothed" compared to single day figures, and this smoothing is why we look at them for trends rather than just a single days figures.

So look at the graph, and not just the average released on one day for the trend.

 

[SydneySwan]

NSW reporting 0 / 0 today. Queensland reporting 1 case.

Gladys having emergency meeting with Dr Chant to see if Queensland should be put on watch with a view to closing the border if Queensland reports anymore cases in the next 28 days.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW reporting 0 / 0 today. Queensland reporting 1 case.

Gladys having emergency meeting with Dr Chant to see if Queensland should be put on watch with a view to closing the border if Queensland reports anymore cases in the next 28 days.

Please don’t blame all of us up here for the action of one controversial CHO

But seriously was there resolution on whether that man in hospital in Sydney was a mystery case or not?

Did they link it to something or does Dr Young get to send NSW back to day zero on her special border clock?

 

[Flying mermaid]

Please don’t blame all of us up here for the action of one controversial CHO

But seriously was there resolution on whether that man in hospital in Sydney was a mystery case or not?

Did they link it to something or does Dr Young get to send NSW back to day zero on her special border clock?

I think it is still a mystery case. It’s hard to justify the border closure given the cases in Sydney but I guess they will do what they want to do. I am just glad that it’s open for ACT now, although I don’t need it until February

 

[TheRealTMA]

NSW reporting 0 / 0 today. Queensland reporting 1 case.

Gladys having emergency meeting with Dr Chant to see if Queensland should be put on watch with a view to closing the border if Queensland reports anymore cases in the next 28 days.

I don’t think cases already in quarantine count. It’s community transmission from unknown sources that’s the issue. Wasn’t this the NSW case?

 

[N860CR]

But seriously was there resolution on whether that man in hospital in Sydney was a mystery case or not?

Did they link it to something or does Dr Young get to send NSW back to day zero on her special border clock?

Realistically, it doesn’t matter. The Queensland government have told people since March that “it’s all about us” and “closing the borders stops the virus”. Neither are really true, but the general public have believed the narrative, Queenslanders are (generally) quite xenophobic so they like the narrative and she’s not going to change it with an election coming up.

It’ll open two weeks after the election regardless of who wins. Sadly, the cost to the state will be huge.

 

[moa999]

Gladys having emergency meeting with Dr Chant to see if Queensland should be put on watch with a view to closing the border if Queensland reports anymore cases in the next 28 days.

Ban them completely. At least six months
And kick any Qld teams out of the NRL Finals Series...
Oh wait.

 

[DC3]

...
Gladys having emergency meeting with Dr Chant to see if Queensland should be put on watch with a view to closing the border if Queensland reports anymore cases in the next 28 days.

But Glad doesn’t like supporting borders.

Anyway, who would be wanting to go into darkest NSW, from sunny QLD.

 

[jakeseven7]

I don’t think cases already in quarantine count. It’s community transmission from unknown sources that’s the issue. Wasn’t this the NSW case?

No I don’t think it was in quarantine - I thought it was a man admitted to hospital and then diagnosed and they were trying to contact trace but Dr Young said she would class it as mystery and reset her special NSW border clock if they didn’t link the case.... but wasn’t sure if they’d linked it yet hence the question.

 

[Pushka]

NSW reporting 0 / 0 today. Queensland reporting 1 case.

Gladys having emergency meeting with Dr Chant to see if Queensland should be put on watch with a view to closing the border if Queensland reports anymore cases in the next 28 days.

As long as the poxy AFL crew don't expect Adelaide to host their mob and the GF if it gets worse.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well (and again with only a day 's sample take it with a grain of salt) but one good piece of granular news if I added up the cases from Dan's presser today correctly 15 of the 16 cases from today have already been linked to known cases. Normally it has been 30/40% at this stage may not have yet been linked. It would also mean a max of one unknown local case today (and that may be zero as cases often get linked that under under investigation, and in particular ones that are still under 24hrs of investigation.

Note the 3 Unknown ( not good news) announced today are for prior to two days ago, as they lag this figure by 48hrs. So today being low, probably just makes up for 48hrs ago being high.

PS The DHHS report when released later today will confirm the cases under investigation.

Post automatically merged: Sep 27, 2020

Step 3 for Melbourne now likely for 19th Oct = 3 weeks away. According to Dan's presser.

However will move to case numbers rather than dates though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Tonight is the last night of the curfew. 5km rule remains though.

To see the full document click on: https://covidlive.com.au/docs/metro-melb-second-step.pdf

 

[jakeseven7]

Tonight is the last night of the curfew. 5km rule remains though.

View attachment 228787

$5,000 fine now as well I don’t think many will be risking it!