Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[p--and--t]

I wonder if 'putting the bins out' was the euphemism.

I worked on a banking software implementation project in Melbourne many moons ago (early 1990s) where the manager used to order in pizzas every night for those who worked beyond 8pm or so. The manager's wife had him on a special diet at home at the time which he didn't follow at work. She used to ring him up at the office in the evening and sometimes he was down in the building foyer waiting for the pizzas to be delivered. We were under strict instructions to tell her that he was 'putting the bins out'. Apparently life was not worth living if she thought he had even smelt a pizza let alone scoffed one. He had convinced her that every night the test reports were shredded for security reasons and he took personal responsibility for depositing the bins in the bin collection area.

Except under curfew, he couldn't get a pizza delivery . Maybe waiting for drug delivery or maybe outside waiting for someone doing a collection?

 

[Pushka]

You should advertise your services. Just the resource a lot of the deliberate restriction breechers need when they get caught out and can't think of an excuse quickly.

YMMV

I don't live under the restrictions obviously but I am trying to understand the rationale of them. SA never had anything remotely like these restrictions even during the height of the pandemic round 1. In all honesty I don't know how some people have coped.

 

[p--and--t]

I don't live under the restrictions obviously but I am trying to understand the rationale of them. SA never had anything remotely like these restrictions even during the height of the pandemic round 1.

You also didn't get to 700 cases a day due largely to people ignoring sensible restrictions that would have more than been satisfactory and effective except for more deliberate breeches.

Note in the picture, he is way outside the premises, no bins anywhere close by if that is his premises, not close to the driveway where the bins would be put.

Who when just "quickly putting the bins out under curfew", dresses for an extended excursion, takes their phone with them and then walks down the street a bit and starts texting and then refuses to identify themselves when challenged by an officer in uniform?

Edit: As someone who until recently worked in VicPol said to me. There had to be a reason the car was patrolling a backstreet at that specific point in time. In his opinion there is zero chance it was random. Maybe a neighbour reported suspicious behaviour, the person (or another person on their way to meet him) was known already known to them or there had been suspicious activities in that or surrounding streets so they had cause to be patrolling there.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Salient part of today's Vic DHHS Report. My bolding.

Media Release
27 September 2020

Victoria has recorded 16 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,145.

Within Victoria, 15 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and one is under investigation. My comment: So as I noted earlier only one potential unknow local case today, and it may yet be traced to become known.

Of today's 15 cases linked to outbreaks, 10 are linked to aged care (three at Baptcare Wyndham Lodge, three at Opal Hobsons Bay, two at Embracia Moonee Valley, and one each at Estia Keilor and Doutta Galla Woornack) and four are linked to a complex case. One case has links to both this complex case and Baptcare Peninsula View in Frankston.

Of today's 16 new cases, there are five cases in Frankston, four cases in Hobsons Bay, three cases in Brimbank and Wyndham and a single case in Melton.
There have been two new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. Two men in their 70s. One death occurred prior to yesterday.

One of today's two deaths are linked to a known aged care facility outbreak. To date, 784 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

The average number of cases diagnosed in the last 14 days for metropolitan Melbourne is 22.1 and regional Victoria is 0.6. The rolling daily average case number is calculated by averaging out the number of new cases over the past 14 days.

The total number of cases from an unknown source in the last 14 days is 31 for metropolitan Melbourne and zero for regional Victoria. The 14-day period for the source of acquisition data ends 48 hours earlier than the 14-day period used to calculate the new case average due to the time required to fully investigate a case and assign its mode of acquisition.


My comment: What seems to be really stopping the new cases dropping to single digits are the surprising ongoing aged care cases that keep occurring most days. I say surprising as one would imagine that there are a lot of controls in this sector at present. The commentary does not flag the break-up of the aged care cases each day though (ie Staff, residents of others). It could also being amongst the elderly that it also takes longer for cases to show up in positive testes.

It could also be that there are actually higher levels of unknown cases in the general community but that a high level surveillance testing on aged care staff more readily identifies the infections in this cohort.

 

[Pushka]

Hopefully the inquiry will define why Victoria rose to 700 cases but significant linkages to quarantine have already identified the mechanism.

I do find it a twist that a state that allowed known positive Covid cases to exercise in the community has now had to resort to such measures.

 

[Austman]

I do find it a twist that a state that allowed known positive Covid cases to exercise in the community has now had to resort to such measures.

Perhaps you know?

In mid March 2020 (ca 15th) I was staying a few nights at the Adelaide Hilton. A room opposite ours clearly had a guest who was in some sort of isolation. Meals were left outside the door. Hotel staff could be heard saying "we are not permitted to come into the room and you are not permitted out". Etc.

Not sure exactly what it was. Perhaps international airline crew? But COVID-19 was very much an issue by then.

How important it was, I'm not sure. But I do know there was zero hotel security. Perhaps, back in mid March no-one thought it was necessary?

 

[p--and--t]

Hopefully the inquiry will define why Victoria rose to 700 cases but significant linkages to quarantine have already identified the mechanism.

I do find it a twist that a state that allowed known positive Covid cases to exercise in the community has now had to resort to such measures.

Isn't it pretty clear what the nucleus of the problems were?

(1) Corporate fraud - taking on a contract you knew well before signing you did not have the resources to fill and then subsequently did not honour the majority of all the conditions of that contract and collected the money under false pretences.

(2) The lack of a single person or department to oversee the program and ensure the appropriate protocols were documented, carried out and the associated contract conditions were met. Ostensibly it was treated as a tick the box process. Contract 1 let, contract 2 let, what's next on the list. Was being run by committee with the left hand assuming the right hand had things under control.

(3) The health department even with clear knowledge the program was running, even if they weren't running it (which they didn't have to) not sticking their nose in and insisting on evidence of infection controls being documented and implemented under their umbrella of responsibilities.

(40 (After thinking they had done a brilliant job in the first wave and starting to relax) It took far too long for health to realise the genie had escaped and not factored in the problem was no longer hotel quarantine but the vectors were community spread.

 

[kyle]

I'm annoyed that the mask rule is going to be here long-term. If other States can manage their low numbers without requiring masks all the time, I don't see why Victoria has to be the nanny state and be different.

 

[Flashback]

Isn't it pretty clear what the nucleus of the problems were?

(1) Corporate fraud - taking on a contract you knew well before signing you did not have the resources to fill and then subsequently did not honour the majority of all the conditions of that contract and collected the money under false pretences.

(2) The lack of a single person or department to oversee the program and ensure the appropriate protocols were documented, carried out and the associated contract conditions were met. Ostensibly it was treated as a tick the box process. Contract 1 let, contract 2 let, what's next on the list. Was being run by committee with the left hand assuming the right hand had things under control.

(3) The health department even with clear knowledge the program was running, even if they weren't running it (which they didn't have to) not sticking their nose in and insisting on evidence of infection controls being documented and implemented under their umbrella of responsibilities.

(40 (After thinking they had done a brilliant job in the first wave and starting to relax) It took far too long for health to realise the genie had escaped and not factored in the problem was no longer hotel quarantine but the vectors were community spread.

Point 1 is very common in business. Companies will often sign contracts without having all resources lined up. Heck, sometimes they won't even have the solution that they've sold ready to go either as it was a proof of concept type sale... Standard business practice IME and they'll then fill the gaps once it's been sold and signed.

 

[Pushka]

Perhaps you know?

In mid March 2020 (ca 15th) I was staying a few nights at the Adelaide Hilton. A room opposite ours clearly had a guest who was in some sort of isolation. Meals were left outside the door. Hotel staff could be heard saying "we are not permitted to come into the room and you are not permitted out". Etc.

Not sure exactly what it was. Perhaps international airline crew? But COVID-19 was very much an issue by then.

How important it was, I'm not sure. But I do know there was zero hotel security. Perhaps, back in mid March no-one thought it was necessary?

Mid March people from overseas were allowed to self isolate. Many did that in hotels away from their family. I described it here at the time but my nephew arrived from France in late March and he isolated in a caravan park in the Adelaide foothills. Another friend arrived back from the USA in March and isolated with her husband on their family property. In fact, some still do that when they are not Covid positive if they only came from interstate. It wasnt until late March that the Hotel Quarantine issue came into play for overseas people so what you are describing is what happened throughout Australia at that time. That person clearly hadnt tested positive for Covid and had no symptoms so self isolation was all they needed to do. If they were positive, in mid March they likely would have been put into hospital for observation in SA.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Don't they only count if they come ashore?

I’m not 100% sure anymore.

WA increased their active case by net 6 from 10 to 16 today. The number of new cases was 7. There could have also been decrease for some older case becoming inactive.

 

[Austman]

Mid March people from overseas were allowed to self isolate.

Thanks for the clarification. It certainly seems to have been what we saw. It was indeed probably self isolation at the hotel?

But certainly there was no security. We walked past their door often enough ...

And we now all know that private security firms are apparently "cowboys".

The media reports, for VIC, even today, are still about the failure of hotel security. Who was responsible for it etc. Yet there was a time when hotel security wasn't even done.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I don't live under the restrictions obviously but I am trying to understand the rationale of them. SA never had anything remotely like these restrictions even during the height of the pandemic round 1. In all honesty I don't know how some people have coped.

The problem was it had spread right into the community and cases were escalating. They didn’t have a good test and trace system and in any case no one can do decent test and trace when you have that number of daily cases.

As of today South Australia has had a total of 468 cases ( and a large % of those would be hotel quarantine). Victoria has had 20,145 with over 4,000 from an unknown source. The measures Victoria had to take had to be drastic and they have worked. Count your blessings South Australia never got into that situation - I am grateful ACT hasn’t either.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm annoyed that the mask rule is going to be here long-term. If other States can manage their low numbers without requiring masks all the time, I don't see why Victoria has to be the nanny state and be different.

We are the state that still has active unknown community spread, and at higher numbers than other states have ever had. This a crucial difference.

You then add to that pre-symptomatic spreaders.


I will be glad when I no longer have to wear a mask, but it is a pretty easy measure to follow and I give anyone without one a wide berth.

 

[Pushka]

I'm sure everyone will be pleased if masks are no longer required when summer hits. . Although I think masks are a great idea. I know during swine flu people in SA were asked to wear them if they had any kind of respiratory symptoms.

 

[OZDUCK]

I’m not 100% sure anymore.

WA increased their active case by net 6 from 10 to 16 today. The number of new cases was 7. There could have also been decrease for some older case becoming inactive.

The new cases were all onboard the ship but are counted in the state total. They will be bought ashore once the logistics of keeping the ship 'running' are sorted out as there are only 9 people left on board - including the newly infected crewmen. The ship is not in port but at anchor so it is a somewhat complicated situation. The results for all the crew are expected later and more cases are expected from those in quarantine. There was also a new case in hotel quarantine.

 

[kyle]

We are the state that still has active unknown community spread, and at higher numbers than other states have ever had. This a crucial difference.

You then add to that pre-symptomatic spreaders.

I wonder if any detailed investigations have been done on those mystery cases and see why those people may be more susceptible.

But pre-symptomatic spreaders would have been in other States too?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I wonder if any detailed investigations have been done on those mystery cases and see why those people may be more susceptible.

My understanding is it is more just that the source is unknown, rather that the person catching it being more susceptible to catching it. Hence the name as Local Unknown Community Cases (Mystery Cases).

However when cases were very high in Vic the contact tracing was overwhelmed, and so some of those would have remain unknown due to lack of ability to trace.

But pre-symptomatic spreaders would have been in other States too?

Everywhere there is CV19. Right around the world.

Pre-symptomatic just means that the virus has been transmitted prior to a person showing symptoms. This is actually very much the norm that an infected person will start shedding (which then provides an opportunity to transmits the virus) the virus before they show symptoms. People are typically at their most contagious ( ie they have are shedding more ) early on and this includes before they show symptoms.

This a key reason why mask wearing is recommended (along with other measures like social/physical distancing), as it can help to minimise transmission from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people who do not know that they are contagious.

 

[dajop]

I'm sure everyone will be pleased if masks are no longer required when summer hits. .

I’ve done the leap from walking (exercise) around 5pm ish in Victorian early August temperatures - well below 10 degrees by that time of day to doing the same in tropical heat (32, high humidity). Whilst I think it’s probably less uncomfortable in the 10-25 degrees range, counterintuitively I found it more uncomfortable at the cold end of the spectrum than the hot. I think that’s because there was more condensation of my breath inside the mask at lower temperatures.

I suspect mask wearing will be around for a while in Vic - perhaps relaxed outdoors in summer but probably still required in most indoor situations (except dining etc) and almost certainly on public transport.

 

[blackcat20]

I’ve done the leap from walking (exercise) around 5pm ish in Victorian early August temperatures - well below 10 degrees by that time of day to doing the same in tropical heat (32, high humidity). Whilst I think it’s probably less uncomfortable in the 10-25 degrees range, counterintuitively I found it more uncomfortable at the cold end of the spectrum than the hot. I think that’s because there was more condensation of my breath inside the mask at lower temperatures.

I suspect mask wearing will be around for a while in Vic - perhaps relaxed outdoors in summer but probably still required in most indoor situations (except dining etc) and almost certainly on public transport.

I think a lot of people are hoping masks will be rolled back to indoor situations only. Feels a bit pointless wearing one when out for a walk and you dont pass a single other person.