Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[jakeseven7]

Unknowns still at 17 over the past 2 weeks unfortunately. While it will start to drop off due to the low numbers of cases over the last 48 hours, sadly it is concerning that when cases have been high, the proportions of unknowns have also been relatively high.

We can only hope these low cases allow tracing to improve should any new clusters arise.

Over the last couple of weeks VIC mystery cases have actually only been been 15% (will be adjusted down again as the cases are updated today) so of course relatively it is still not as good as other states because they aren't in the same situation.... but if you go back to when NSW had roughly the same amount of cases (the 'best' comparison we have), it was a very similar %.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hospital and Aged Care Active Cases both continue to decline in Victoria which is good news.. And are both now at quite low levels.




And cases in aged care also continue to drop.

 

[jakeseven7]

And zero new Mystery cases

And a massive amount of tests for VIC, +18,000.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Over the last couple of weeks VIC mystery cases have actually only been been 15% (will be adjusted down again as the cases are updated today) so of course relatively it is still not as good as other states because they aren't in the same situation.... but if you go back to when NSW had roughly the same amount of cases (the 'best' comparison we have), it was a very similar %.

I think the other way of looking at it is that Mystery Cases are coming from unknown transmission chains where the person that infected them, or even several generations of them, is asymptomatic. So these are drifting lower at a slower rate as they are relying on the social distancing and mask measures in the main to keep being reduced. Though when a mystery case pops up contact tracing may allow the person that infected them to be identified, but equally may not as the spreader being asymptomatic may not be obvious. As we expand the use of the three rings around new cases this may pick up more of these spreaders, or at least cut off the transmissions.


Whereas the known case are also being controlled by contact tracing and isolation measures. Plus the symptomatic will alter their behaviours (Well mostly). So the rate of drop off is greater.

 

[33kft]

Over the last couple of weeks VIC mystery cases have actually only been been 15% (will be adjusted down again as the cases are updated today) so of course relatively it is still not as good as other states because they aren't in the same situation.... but if you go back to when NSW had roughly the same amount of cases (the 'best' comparison we have), it was a very similar %.

So after the last debacle, VIC have managed to almost get the unknown rate down to NSW's average. Can't say that either engenders confidence or meets the expectations of the Victorian public. Frankly, 4+ months of lockdown to get to a reset on cases is part of a social contract where the government either fulfills its part of the arrangement and ensures ongoing performance of testing and tracing, or loses any chance of compliance the next time around.

So you might be happy to see near NSW levels of suppression, but forgive me for thinking we'd be seeing a trend towards the sort of performance that NZ and some countries in Asia have achieved. Sadly we will see the trend you're alluding to, but it's entirely artificial, it's not based on the tracing capability, it's based on the loss of resolution that comes with such low case numbers. What will we see if they start trending up again?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Note that Sutton indicated today that there was one new mystery case. Looking at the history 15 days ago (+48hr lag) there was 1 case. So that is why the 14 day figure is still 17.

 

[33kft]

Great example of my point right now during Dan's presser

• Journalist asking why we don't have a QR code system or similar whilst NSW have a system in place already
• Long rambling response from Dan about how different places will have different systems and some places will keep records by hand and maybe there will be different technologies such as a card you can tap on the way in and Kilmore were able to trace because they kept meticulous records (ie no Government standard system, we're entirely reliant on each entity at this point)

But the question from the reporter was succinct: Why after 4 months of lockdown due to a resurgence does Victoria not have this yet, a day before restrictions are eased. Dan's response was that no businesses are open yet (in metro Melbourne, how about the rest of the state??) so it is not an immediate problem, but how can we feel as if anything has been learned if this is where we are at? A simple answer of yes, we're all over it and this is how it will be done would provide that confidence, this rambling yeah well it's not needed right now so why is it an issue is what leads me to wonder how we are any better off - yes people stayed home and the virus spread stopped, but what has improved on the test and trace side to maintain this? I get they aren't using paper records and fax machines anymore, great, that's progress but it's not the end of the story, surely?

 

[jakeseven7]

So after the last debacle, VIC have managed to almost get the unknown rate down to NSW's average. Can't say that either engenders confidence or meets the expectations of the Victorian public. Frankly, 4+ months of lockdown to get to a reset on cases is part of a social contract where the government either fulfills its part of the arrangement and ensures ongoing performance of testing and tracing, or loses any chance of compliance the next time around.

So you might be happy to see near NSW levels of suppression, but forgive me for thinking we'd be seeing a trend towards the sort of performance that NZ and some countries in Asia have achieved. Sadly we will see the trend you're alluding to, but it's entirely artificial, it's not based on the tracing capability, it's based on the loss of resolution that comes with such low case numbers. What will we see if they start trending up again?

I'm not happy or sad.... and I'm not sure I really understand what you are saying at all, I'm merely pointing out that VIC is tracking at the same level NSW was in roughly the same position of case numbers from 'wave 2'. That's all

 

[33kft]

and I'm not sure I really understand what you are saying at al

Then why respond with a rebuttal to every post if you don't understand? Is it some sort of compulsion that you have?

 

[jakeseven7]

Breaking: South East Queensland on alert as Coronavirus detected in sewage samples


Samples of sewage taken from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast have tested positive for coronavirus.

Traces of coronavirus were found in Townsville's sewage earlier this month, which Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said could have been from an asymptomatic person still shedding the virus.

Wastewater in Townsville, in north Queensland, has since tested negative but samples from October 12 and 13 taken at Sandgate, Maroochydore and Wynnum in the state's south-east tested positive.

"It could of course be someone who recently had the infection and then has gone to those places, so they're not infectious, they've recovered but they're still shedding virus, it could be that," Dr Young said.

"But it could of course be a person that we've not picked up, that's out there in the community.

The state's total remains at 1,164 with four cases still listed as active, but testing rates have remained low over the last few months prompting Dr Young to plead for residents to come forward and be tested.

COVID-19 detected in South East Queensland sewage samples

Samples of sewage in South East Queensland, including Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, test positive for coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Then why respond with a rebuttal to every post if you don't understand? Is it some sort of compulsion that you have?

Yes it is, I was diagnosed with it late last year and thankfully we have such a friendly community

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Here’s my daily compulsion on NSW mystery cases

Today’s reports indicate
- 4 in the past 7 days
- 2 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So no change today ....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report is now out for 17th Oct.

Victoria has recorded one new case of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,317.

The overall total has remained the same due to one case being reclassified.

There have been no new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. To date, 816 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

Today’s new case is linked to a new Hoppers Crossing community outbreak that comprises three cases across two households. This outbreak includes what was originally referred to as a complex case linked to Woolworths QV. The new case is a known family close contact of that case. There is no evidence of workplace transmission.

Today’s new case is in the local government area of Hume.


Full report at Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus update for Victoria - Saturday 17 October




With the reclassification it means that the coughulative total of cases has not increased for the first time in Victoria since 9th June.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Breaking: South East Queensland on alert as Coronavirus detected in sewage samples


Samples of sewage taken from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast have tested positive for coronavirus.

Traces of coronavirus were found in Townsville's sewage earlier this month, which Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said could have been from an asymptomatic person still shedding the virus.

Wastewater in Townsville, in north Queensland, has since tested negative but samples from October 12 and 13 taken at Sandgate, Maroochydore and Wynnum in the state's south-east tested positive.

"It could of course be someone who recently had the infection and then has gone to those places, so they're not infectious, they've recovered but they're still shedding virus, it could be that," Dr Young said.

"But it could of course be a person that we've not picked up, that's out there in the community.

The state's total remains at 1,164 with four cases still listed as active, but testing rates have remained low over the last few months prompting Dr Young to plead for residents to come forward and be tested.

COVID-19 detected in South East Queensland sewage samples

Samples of sewage in South East Queensland, including Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, test positive for coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

Some background on sewerage testing.

newsGP - Wastewater tests for COVID launching in bid to spot outbreaks early

A pioneering surveillance program is already proving its worth in finding virus fragments – and alerting authorities to potential cases.

www1.racgp.org.au

 

[trippin_the_rift]

And no price discounts. You're better off flying with EK, CX or QR and getting points.status credits for a lower price.

View attachment 230609

"pandemic"

You know, if my business converted sales like Covid tests to deaths ratio - I'd have been broke a long time go.
Imagine 2.8M people walk into your store and only 55 buy a product. It's a non-starter.

The rate is so low it's not worth mentioning, let alone newsworthy.

 

[Austman]

And yet another blame game being widely reported in the media:

Victoria to Federal Government: We told you "no international arrivals".
Federal Government to Victoria: "You didn't protest at the meetings about the NSW-NZ travel bubble".

It's also being discussed in the New Zealand Travel Bubble thread.

Sigh. It's not just this situation. It seems that in the nation's handling of COVID-19, someone has to always actively object to something, else it's deemed to be OK. The "You didn't object!" blame game.

That approach seems to have caused major COVID-19 issues throughout the nation...

Or it's an appalling breakdown in communications. Or just a silly blame game.

None of those situations is good.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Can someone please explain why is Victoria objecting? If NZers ultimately arrive in Melbourne (of course via Sydney) and follow Step 2 plus or go to country Victoria and follow the relevant step, then what’s the problem?

 

[Princess Fiona]

Can someone please explain why is Victoria objecting? If NZers ultimately arrive in Melbourne (of course via Sydney) and follow Step 2 plus or go to country Victoria and follow the relevant step, then what’s the problem?

There is no problem.
Victoria has no idea how many travellers from NZ have entered their state. They only know about those that chose to fly rather than drive or bus etc.
It’s absolutely ludicrous.

 

[Pushka]

Can someone please explain why is Victoria objecting? If NZers ultimately arrive in Melbourne (of course via Sydney) and follow Step 2 plus or go to country Victoria and follow the relevant step, then what’s the problem?

Unless Victoria border is closed to people arriving from Sydney?

Maybe a diversionary tactic given the Inquiry issue.

I’m not sure how they plan to exit Melbourne though to get back to NZ.