Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Post automatically merged: Nov 8, 2020

 

[jakeseven7]

To complicate the matter further, these new cases aren’t in Sydney and are in areas that currently are open to Queensland. So assuming they only review once a month, I’d say they should open to Sydney and close to the Bowral region.

Exactly but if they can’t find out the source of the spread I think it’s safe to assume QLD will assume it came from SW Sydney and keep the whole Sydney banned as a hotspot but possibly also add that regional area as a hotspot too...

 

[Anna]

why would you be “alarmed”? The cases are all incoming people from countries with Covid cases. It’s a good thing they are being picked up in hotel quarantine! Worry about community transmission, not the cases in quarantine.

I'm alarmed because months ago back when I was asking 'why is Vic at 10 new cases per day when everywhere else is 1?' I was being told 'nothing to see here' and '10 is not much, it's much worse overseas' and I feel like if there had been more critical analysis back then in Vic, they may have realised their problems much sooner, avoided a lot of unnecessary deaths and illness and not have had to go into a second lockdown.

I'm alarmed because Nicola Spurrier (who has done a good job so far) hasn't issued any info at all about why we are seeing an increase in SA, therefore there's nothing to suggest SA Health even have it on their radar that there is an increase.

I'm alarmed because of the Diamond Princess and Vic hotel-quarantine debacles, and again there has been no reassurance from SA Health that 'the same can't happen in SA because in SA we are doing xyz differently'.

I'm alarmed because the lack of acknowledgement from SA Health about the sudden increase might mean they are complacent and they aren't on the alert for cases being 'picked up' in hotel quarantine, but not in the sense you mean.

I'm alarmed because the more cases in hotel quarantine, the more chance that somehow it slips out into the community via a cleaner, security guard, hotel staff, medical staff, quarantine bus driver, airport staff, whatever. Crickets and tumbleweeds from SA Health doesn't reassure anyone this isn't going to happen or that it would be detected early and stopped if it did somehow happen.

Maybe I'm just alarmed because a lot of my career has been spent working backwards to establish what could have been done earlier to prevent some accident or catastrophe (including in medical defence looking at medical stuff ups), so any possible complacency or lack of acknowledgement from those in charge is concerning.

 

[RAM]

I'm alarmed that as of late yesterday, there is more active covid in SA than in Vic. 18 active cases in SA hotel quarantine, and 15 active cases in Vic (not hotel quarantine).

It's the steep, relatively sudden increase in SA that alarms me more than 18 active cases per se. And there has been no reassurance to the SA public about why there's has been a sudden increase. Just 'nothing to see here' cut-and-paste daily announcements from SA Health with exactly the same minimal info as when it was 0-2 active cases at a time.

It reminds me of the time back when Vic's daily figures were 10 times the number of the rest of Australia (ie 10 when everyone else was 1) and nobody thought that was odd. Look what happened there.

Never be alarmed, be curious! When you see something unexpected, do a search on it....
Such as 'Adelaide airport arrivals' - shows a plane arriving today from Malaysia.

SA increased the number of international arrivals it would accept & began taking 600 people a week from overseas recently.

Depending where the passengers have travelled from through to KL will impact the expected infection rate. As the bulk of 'strandeds' overseas are in India, The Phillipines, South Africa & Vietnam - they're the most relevant stats to look at.

Into Sydney today we have:

• JAL - Tokyo
• Air India - Delhi
• Delta - LA
• China Southern - Guangzhou
• United - San Francisco
• ANA - Tokyo
• Air NZ - Auckland
• Cathay - HK
• Qatar - Doha
• SIA - Singapore
• Air NZ - Auckland

So around 52 passengers max per plane to meet the daily capacity. Where they came from before joining the flights - who knows (other than Air India, United, Delta & Air NZ perhaps).

From the daily SA Health page it lists all the increased as 'International'. Seems like the infection rate for the 600 weekly arrivals is running around 3%.



Which is a handy segway into a question I've had for a while. Namely that perhaps many people overseas wait until they are concerned that a contact of their's has caught CV & then head for the 'free health' bolthole that is Australia.

In August there were 15,549 international air arrivals (Adel = 754, mainly Emirates & Etihad with 77 from Malaysia). Sydney had 9,825, Cairns 79, Brisbane 2,853, Perth 2,038.

The Sydney figure is interesting as it is below the 10,850 maximum permitted (350/day at that stage).

Given there were (only) 18,800 'stranded' registered with DFAT at the end of July then if the Federal Govt wanted to assist getting them back - Scomo could have simply achieved that without any need to recall Parliament, by saying that all arrivals must be granted by DFAT.

If that had been done there would have been under 3,500 left by 31 August. Instead the number of stranded increased by over 5,000 to above 24,000, and has been increasing every month since despite more than enough capacity being available at no charge to the taxpayer.

 

[moa999]

This means Sydney will be banned from QLD for any Christmas reunification due to being a hotspot.

But the most recent case wasn't in Sydney

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But the most recent case wasn't in Sydney

Yes and so IF Qld is consistent they should be opening up to greater Sydney based on the last Sydney case and not the newer regional case, and just blocking those from the Moss Vale Region. One can hope anyway.

 

[Pushka]

I'm alarmed that as of late yesterday, there is more active covid in SA than in Vic. 18 active cases in SA hotel quarantine, and 15 active cases in Vic (not hotel quarantine).

It's the steep, relatively sudden increase in SA that alarms me more than 18 active cases per se. And there has been no reassurance to the SA public about why there's has been a sudden increase. Just 'nothing to see here' cut-and-paste daily announcements from SA Health with exactly the same minimal info as when it was 0-2 active cases at a time.

It reminds me of the time back when Vic's daily figures were 10 times the number of the rest of Australia (ie 10 when everyone else was 1) and nobody thought that was odd. Look what happened there.

I believe they are all in quarantine having arrived from overseas. This is going to be the future for the interim. I recall Prof Spurrier predicting when we first ramped up repatriation flights a couple of months ago that in the plane full she expected around 25 positives. That didn’t come to pass, just two or three. But of course what must happen is that infection control is paramount in the hotels.

I'm alarmed because months ago back when I was asking 'why is Vic at 10 new cases per day when everywhere else is 1?' I was being told 'nothing to see here' and '10 is not much, it's much worse overseas' and I feel like if there had been more critical analysis back then in Vic, they may have realised their problems much sooner, avoided a lot of unnecessary deaths and illness and not have had to go into a second lockdown.

I'm alarmed because Nicola Spurrier (who has done a good job so far) hasn't issued any info at all about why we are seeing an increase in SA, therefore there's nothing to suggest SA Health even have it on their radar that there is an increase.

I'm alarmed because of the Diamond Princess and Vic hotel-quarantine debacles, and again there has been no reassurance from SA Health that 'the same can't happen in SA because in SA we are doing xyz differently'.

I'm alarmed because the lack of acknowledgement from SA Health about the sudden increase might mean they are complacent and they aren't on the alert for cases being 'picked up' in hotel quarantine, but not in the sense you mean.

I'm alarmed because the more cases in hotel quarantine, the more chance that somehow it slips out into the community via a cleaner, security guard, hotel staff, medical staff, quarantine bus driver, airport staff, whatever. Crickets and tumbleweeds from SA Health doesn't reassure anyone this isn't going to happen or that it would be detected early and stopped if it did somehow happen.

Maybe I'm just alarmed because a lot of my career has been spent working backwards to establish what could have been done earlier to prevent some accident or catastrophe (including in medical defence looking at medical stuff ups), so any possible complacency or lack of acknowledgement from those in charge is concerning.

I think that providing that strict infection control measures are in place there is no risk to the community. As infection rates overseas rise then it makes total sense for an increase in repatriated travellers to reflect that. I am a worry wort but am not worried about this.

 

[moa999]

What's the alternative ??
Let Australians suffer overseas in countries where they may not have a job, suitable accommodation and may face visa issues.

(admittedly in some cases the returnees are dual citizens who are effectively country shopping for the safest place)

Like opening up parts of the country we need to take some sensible risks.

 

[drron]

To complicate the matter further, these new cases aren’t in Sydney and are in areas that currently are open to Queensland. So assuming they only review once a month, I’d say they should open to Sydney and close to the Bowral region.

No.AP has a once in a lifetime opportunity to give a really big up yours to Gladys.Open to Sydney and close to Regional NSW so no one can drive from Sydney to QLD.

 

[N860CR]

No.AP has a once in a lifetime opportunity to give a really big up yours to Gladys.Open to Sydney and close to Regional NSW so no one can drive from Sydney to QLD.

To be honest... nothing would surprise me at this point.

Actually something would. A sensible, practical solution that looks beyond a months time.

 

[Anna]

What's the alternative ??

The alternative I want is more transparency from SA Health that they are monitoring the sudden increase and reassuring the community there is no need for concern because of xyz reason/s.

I know an internet forum is not the place for nuance and subtlety in reasoned debate so let me be crystal clear, I am not questioning the repatriation policy. I just want some indication that someone other than me has noticed the sudden increase and is actively monitoring it in case something is going awry. Not just complacency that 'everything is fine because we are perfect'.

 

[TomVexille]

... Not just complacency that 'everything is fine because we are perfect'.

That sounds remarkably like the video made here in Victoria about the hotel quarantine program back in April/May

 

[Pushka]

The alternative I want is more transparency from SA Health that they are monitoring the sudden increase and reassuring the community there is no need for concern because of xyz reason/s.

I know an internet forum is not the place for nuance and subtlety in reasoned debate so let me be crystal clear, I am not questioning the repatriation policy. I just want some indication that someone other than me has noticed the sudden increase and is actively monitoring it in case something is going awry. Not just complacency that 'everything is fine because we are perfect'.

But is there really a sudden increase or simply that we have more repatriated people than we had before so a likewise increase in positive numbers? I suspect they are very much on top of the numbers and I don't think thoughts of 'perfect' come into what they do behind the scenes. As long as they are scrupulous in infection control then these won't spread into the community.

 

[jeza]

Given the discussion above the below article seems timely

COVID-19 explosion to strain hotel quarantine and will risk 'leakage' into community, experts warn

The quarantine system in Australia will be "really tested" as COVID-19 infections flare across the world according to some epidemiologists with calls for more national quarantine facilities to be set up outside of city centres.

www.abc.net.au

Edit: CSL to begin manufacturing of Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine candidate

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

in.reuters.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not sure if noted above

NSW 0 local case, 3 from international quarantine

To add the the discussion on Qld border, my opinion is that Qld will remain close to Sydney because of the Moss Vale mystery case. I’m mildly surprised Qld haven’t raised the border to Moss Vale by now

 

[RAM]

This ABC article provides some rare hard data - this time on NSW hotel quarantine breakdowns & trends.

Coronavirus infections double in Sydney's quarantine hotels as cases explode overseas

As coronavirus infections ramp up overseas, so too have the case numbers among people returning to Australia, NSW Health data shows.

www.abc.net.au

Assuming the 82,000+ is through to October 29, that's seven months worth. Or 214 days, meaning an average daily rate of 383+ passengers/day. However as the period through until July 4th was up to 600 passengers/day leaves a big hole between actual vs possible arrivals.

One airline tried to raise this quietly when in an interview in mid August they stated that sometimes they only are told the maximum number of passengers permitted on their Sydney bound flight - within 2 to 3 hours prior to departure.

That makes it hard to sell the seats in advance & may go some way to all the reports by UK 'strandeds' that they kept getting their seats cancelled & rebooked. For example they only find out the numbers after most connecting flights from elsewhere are already in the air (such as from the UK etc). We can but hope that one day a switched on journo may put 2 + 2 together!

After getting so much negative press about cancelling seats - the airlines just book the normal smallest daily maximum they've be cut back to previously.

Given the weekly 'capped' arrivals figure is 6,290 - then they could all get brought home next week if the Federal Govt actually wanted to resolve the issue. So why don't they want the issue solved? Is it to keep the public from looking at other issues to do with the Federal Govt?

As someone said earlier, if only decisions could be taken for the real benefit of the community!

 

[drron]

Not sure if noted above

NSW 0 local case, 3 from international quarantine

To add the the discussion on Qld border, my opinion is that Qld will remain close to Sydney because of the Moss Vale mystery case. I’m mildly surprised Qld haven’t raised the border to Moss Vale by now

Surely they can't do that yet as they only review the situation once a month.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Surely they can't do that yet as they only review the situation once a month.

I don’t recall closing the border (or more accurately having quarantine on arrival) needed to wait for the monthly meeting.

But true it could be all revealed after the next monthly meeting. (don’t know whether to laugh or cry lol/sigh)

 

[drron]

I don’t recall closing the border (or more accurately having quarantine on arrival) needed to wait for the monthly meeting.

But true it could be all revealed after the next monthly meeting. (don’t know whether to laugh or cry lol/sigh)

The wink implies sarcasm.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The wink implies sarcasm.

Yes I know lol