Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[p--and--t]

One does have to look at the other side of the picture.Keeping the current restrictions in place will also cause deaths and quite possibly many more than Covid 19.These reports from the UK.

There is a risk of a cancer epidemic following the response to coronavirus say academics - About Manchester

A study out today highlights how the repurposing of health systems and implementation of social distancing measures, including national lockdowns, have had negative effects on patients with cancer. These effects included delays in urgent referrals and patients having their cancer treatment, such...

aboutmanchester.co.uk

Failure to fully integrate NHS and private hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic will increase cancer death rates - ecancer

By Professor Gordon C Wishart, Chief Medical Officer at Check4Cancer, Visiting Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine • The

ecancer.org

Certainly locally the number of patients treated with radiotherapy and chemptherapy have dropped due to the distancing requirements.
Screening tests basically closed down.Elective surgery such as various biopsies for cancer have decreased.
One of the major causes of a bad outcome in cancer is delayed diagnosis.The age of these patients is a deal younger than those dying of covid.

There is one overarching fact. We will all die. Not "if", but when.

When, to a large degree, is determined by how many resources are thrown at trying to prolong life one way or another.

If there are limited resources then those resources one would hope are directed at maximising a Quality life for those with the greatest chance of success of living a Quality life.

Might seem insensitive, but seems to me that sometimes we expend significant resources on saving or maintaining the life of someone who maybe a vegetable or have prolonged unbearable suffering and not enough on stopping far more people from getting sick in the first place.

It's a balancing act that will never be perfect, nor suit anyone who is impacted in such a way they feel they were disadvantaged. Its a no win scenario.

A comment from a couple of friends in the "diagnostic" business reflected the other day on the phone, a good proportion of the patients they see are near hypochondriacs who are getting useless testing referred on the medicare tab balanced by a number who avoid getting tested because "its probably nothing" and arrive too late.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One does have to look at the other side of the picture.Keeping the current restrictions in place will also cause deaths and quite possibly many more than Covid 19.These reports from the UK.

There is a risk of a cancer epidemic following the response to coronavirus say academics - About Manchester

A study out today highlights how the repurposing of health systems and implementation of social distancing measures, including national lockdowns, have had negative effects on patients with cancer. These effects included delays in urgent referrals and patients having their cancer treatment, such...

aboutmanchester.co.uk

Failure to fully integrate NHS and private hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic will increase cancer death rates - ecancer

By Professor Gordon C Wishart, Chief Medical Officer at Check4Cancer, Visiting Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine • The

ecancer.org

Certainly locally the number of patients treated with radiotherapy and chemptherapy have dropped due to the distancing requirements.
Screening tests basically closed down.Elective surgery such as various biopsies for cancer have decreased.
One of the major causes of a bad outcome in cancer is delayed diagnosis.The age of these patients is a deal younger than those dying of covid.

Yes, but at least Victoria as of Monday is recommencing elective surgery (at certain ranking) and other procedures. If that goes well then other procedures and treatments will be recommenced as well.

I assume that other states will soon do similar, if they have not already.

 

[Himeno]

Yes, but at least Victoria as of Monday is recommencing elective surgery (at certain ranking) and other procedures. If that goes well then other procedures and treatments will be recommenced as well.

I assume that other states will soon do similar, if they have not already.

ACT is resuming on Tuesday

Elective surgery resumes in the ACT

Elective surgery resumes in the ACT

www.covid19.act.gov.au

 

[Princess Fiona]

One does have to look at the other side of the picture.Keeping the current restrictions in place will also cause deaths and quite possibly many more than Covid 19.These reports from the UK.

There is a risk of a cancer epidemic following the response to coronavirus say academics - About Manchester

A study out today highlights how the repurposing of health systems and implementation of social distancing measures, including national lockdowns, have had negative effects on patients with cancer. These effects included delays in urgent referrals and patients having their cancer treatment, such...

aboutmanchester.co.uk

Failure to fully integrate NHS and private hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic will increase cancer death rates - ecancer

By Professor Gordon C Wishart, Chief Medical Officer at Check4Cancer, Visiting Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine • The

ecancer.org

Certainly locally the number of patients treated with radiotherapy and chemptherapy have dropped due to the distancing requirements.
Screening tests basically closed down.Elective surgery such as various biopsies for cancer have decreased.
One of the major causes of a bad outcome in cancer is delayed diagnosis.The age of these patients is a deal younger than those dying of covid.

A fine balance indeed
This is also from the UK View attachment 216281
Was talking to my parents earlier today and 15 residents have died in the last two weeks at a moderate sized Aged Care Facility in their town. They know two of them.
I don’t envy those that have to make the hard decisions on our behalf in Australia but I know for sure that I am very grateful for the decisions that have been taken so far both on a purely selfish personal perspective and for our country as a whole.

There is nowhere else in the world I would rather be right now.

 

[drron]

Though I would rather we were in Taiwan's position.
429 cases,6 deaths as of yesterday.
Why? Well they subjected each arrival from china to medical examination on December 31st.Stopped flights from China on January 20th and anyone with a Chinese passport or who had travelled in China a few days later.All whilst having very few restrictions.Restaurant and bars still open but everyone wearing masks.

Towards the end of March they noticed a spike in those coming from OS so then closed their border but not their economy.
.
Note the log graph.now that is a truly flattened curve.

Though as Vince Sorrenti said last night North Korea did so well because they closed their borders early-1953.

 

[Pushka]

Yes, but at least Victoria as of Monday is recommencing elective surgery (at certain ranking) and other procedures. If that goes well then other procedures and treatments will be recommenced as well.

I assume that other states will soon do similar, if they have not already.

SA is starting today as well and also focusing on pediatric. Many specialists and nurses have not worked since the shut down and private hospitals were closed. Pending Covid influx.

Post automatically merged: Apr 27, 2020

Though I would rather we were in Taiwan's position.
429 cases,6 deaths as of yesterday.
Why? Well they subjected each arrival from china to medical examination on December 31st.Stopped flights from China on January 20th and anyone with a Chinese passport or who had travelled in China a few days later.All whilst having very few restrictions.Restaurant and bars still open but everyone wearing masks.

Towards the end of March they noticed a spike in those coming from OS so then closed their border but not their economy.
View attachment 216293.
Note the log graph.now that is a truly flattened curve.

Though as Vince Sorrenti said last night North Korea did so well because they closed their borders early-1953.

Well yes but to an extent we were relying on WHO. At least we did act before the major influx of students arriving for first term.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Though I would rather we were in Taiwan's position.
429 cases,6 deaths as of yesterday.
Why? Well they subjected each arrival from china to medical examination on December 31st.Stopped flights from China on January 20th and anyone with a Chinese passport or who had travelled in China a few days later.All whilst having very few restrictions.Restaurant and bars still open but everyone wearing masks.

Towards the end of March they noticed a spike in those coming from OS so then closed their border but not their economy..

Though as Vince Sorrenti said last night North Korea did so well because they closed their borders early-1953.

Taiwan has done exceptionally well.

Why? The main reason is that they were already expecting sooner or later to be faced by an epidemic from China and have been on alert since 2003 looking for just such an outbreak. Why China in particular? Well they had 1/30 of their citizens living in China and 1/60 working there. On top of that 2.7 million Chinese visit Taiwan per year.

Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to have the second highest number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its proximity to and number of flights between China.1 The country has 23 million citizens of which 850 000 reside in and 404 000 work in China.2,3 In 2019, 2.71 million visitors from the mainland traveled to Taiwan.4 As such, Taiwan has been on constant alert and ready to act on epidemics arising from China ever since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003. Given the continual spread of COVID-19 around the world, understanding the action items that were implemented quickly in Taiwan and assessing the effectiveness of these actions in preventing a large-scale epidemic may be instructive for other countries.

Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

This Viewpoint describes the outbreak response infrastructure developed by the Taiwanese government following the SARS epidemic in 2003 and actions in response to COVID-19, including dedicated hotlines for symptom reporting, mobile phone messaging and case tracking, and the ramping up of facemask...

jamanetwork.com

So while of the rest of the world reacted to the outbreak in China once known, Taiwan was unique in that they had planned for it (ie not CV19, but just such a virus) and were just waiting for it to happen.


PS Helpful too no doubt is that Chen Chien-jen KSG KHS (Chinese: 陳建仁, born 6 June 1951) who is the current vice president of the Republic of China (Taiwan), since 2016, is an epidemiologist by training and was formerly vice president of Academia Sinica, Taiwan's premier research institution.

 

[SydneySwan]

I have an assignment booked in Taiwan for 3 weeks starting late September. So far the client has not cancelled it. Both Taiwan and Australia have 14 days quarantine upon entry so a lot needs to change to make this trip even remotely viable.

 

[Pushka]

Day Five of big fat 0 in SA today. Given we have had the most lenient restrictions in Australia other than closing the border without self isolation it's been very effective so far.

 

[drron]

Taiwan has done exceptionally well.

Why? The main reason is that they were already expecting sooner or later to be faced by an epidemic from China and have been on alert since 2003 looking for just such an outbreak. Why China in particular? Well they had 1/30 of their citizens living in China and 1/60 working there. On top of that 2.7 million Chinese visit Taiwan per year.

Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to have the second highest number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its proximity to and number of flights between China.1 The country has 23 million citizens of which 850 000 reside in and 404 000 work in China.2,3 In 2019, 2.71 million visitors from the mainland traveled to Taiwan.4 As such, Taiwan has been on constant alert and ready to act on epidemics arising from China ever since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003. Given the continual spread of COVID-19 around the world, understanding the action items that were implemented quickly in Taiwan and assessing the effectiveness of these actions in preventing a large-scale epidemic may be instructive for other countries.

Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

This Viewpoint describes the outbreak response infrastructure developed by the Taiwanese government following the SARS epidemic in 2003 and actions in response to COVID-19, including dedicated hotlines for symptom reporting, mobile phone messaging and case tracking, and the ramping up of facemask...

jamanetwork.com

So while of the rest of the world reacted to the outbreak in China once known, Taiwan was unique in that they had planned for it (ie not CV19, but just such a virus) and were just waiting for it to happen.


PS Helpful too no doubt is that Chen Chien-jen KSG KHS (Chinese: 陳建仁, born 6 June 1951) who is the current vice president of the Republic of China (Taiwan), since 2016, is an epidemiologist by training and was formerly vice president of Academia Sinica, Taiwan's premier research institution.

So in future we should have some reciprocal medical influence in Taiwan and if they start doing something citing a possible pandemic we should immediately do the same.Seems a better idea than trusting the WHO.

 

[Pushka]

So in future we should have some reciprocal medical influence in Taiwan and if they start doing something citing a possible pandemic we should immediately do the same.Seems a better idea than trusting the WHO.

Maybe we could even appoint him head of WHO. Take that China Govt!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So in future we should have some reciprocal medical influence in Taiwan and if they start doing something citing a possible pandemic we should immediately do the same. Seems a better idea than trusting the WHO.

Well that may depend on where the next pandemic starts as Taiwan was particularly exposed to, and were, monitoring China.

With 18% of the wold's population China will remain a likely source, but it could come from anywhere....

Swine Flu from Mexico
Zika from South America
Ebola from Africa

 

[Pushka]

Well that may depend on where the next pandemic starts as Taiwan was particularly exposed to, and were, monitoring China.

With 18% of the wold's population China will remain a likely source, but it could come from anywhere....

Swine Flu from Mexico
Zika from South America
Ebola from Africa

Thankfully Zika depends on the mosquito. Swine flu - has swept through Australia and suspect there is some kind of immunity. Ebola is very self limiting. SARS is still there, another corona.

 

[drron]

Actually the swine flu virus was partly responsible for the bad flu season in 2017 and it is one of the strains covered in the 2020 flu vaccine.

 

[Himeno]

Thankfully Zika depends on the mosquito. Swine flu - has swept through Australia and suspect there is some kind of immunity. Ebola is very self limiting. SARS is still there, another corona.

Is it still there? There have been no confirmed infections of SARS-CoV-1 since 2004.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thankfully Zika depends on the mosquito. Swine flu - has swept through Australia and suspect there is some kind of immunity. Ebola is very self limiting. SARS is still there, another corona.

My point was that pandemics can spring from virtually anywhere at anytime and certainly not just from China, nor even just Asia.

Once international travel resumes to somewhat what it means that we will again be exposed to the next pandemic (whenever it may be), and that the frequency and breadth of modern travel that everywhere can be infected very rapidly. We need to be not just watching China for the next potential pandemic, we need to be watching worldwide.

Bill Gates rang this alarm bell years ago, but most did not heed it.

The next pandemic is only a passenger and a flight (or cruise) or two away, and remember that viruses get to fly and cruise for free. Travel has been a boon in many ways, but pandemics are the price that we all pay for such travel.

And if there is one clear point that has been driven home by CV19 it is in combating pandemics that the ability to act decisively and quickly is crucial. Next is having the tools (that includes skilled staff) to be able to act decisively and quickly.

Remember too that with CV19 that the USA focused mainly on China only for this to be their Maginot Line with the virus out flanking it and entering the USA via Europe en masse on the East Coast rather than the closer West Coast.

 

[drron]

This is a very interesting article on the spread of the virus.Not just Australia but worldwide.Some very interesting thoughts such as clusters in rich areas are not necessarily due to bad behaviour but more likely due to the lower immunity of the rich with their pampered upbringing as against lower socio economic groups who are exposed to a much wider variety of infectious agents.
"It is theoretically possible that socioeconomically privileged individuals really do lack some immune-response mechanism that protects individuals who have been exposed to a wider array of infectious pathogens. A recent report on COVID-19 surveillance testing at a Boston homeless shelter, for instance, contained the stunning disclosure that 36 percent of 408 screened individuals tested positive for COVID-19. Yet the vast majority were asymptomatic, and even the few who were symptomatic did not diverge statistically from the 64 percent of tested individuals who were COVID-19-negative. "

Interesting as well that he concludes flying is not a common source of infection.He cites the case of an infected NZ FA who didn't have any known cases on the flights he took but spread the disease at a wedding reception.
"It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs, notwithstanding the sardine-like manner in which airlines transport us and the ample opportunity that the industry’s bureaucracy offers for contact tracing. I have been made aware of a Vietnamese woman who apparently spread infection on a flight. And New Zealand has one cluster that’s based around an infected but asymptomatic flight attendant. But the many known infections he caused took place at a wedding reception, not in an airplane. This flight attendant was running what was, in effect, an unintended experiment, with the passengers on board his aircraft playing the role of control group. And the results offer a microcosm of the nature of SSEs as a whole. "

Certainly worth a read.

COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons

In the absence of any comprehensive database of COVID-19 superspreading events, I built my own.

quillette.com

 

[Pushka]

How many times have I said here I don't like bats?

Coronavirus Australia live blog: How to save one million housing sector jobs

<p>The housing sector is one of Australia's most economically crucial industries and employees one million people, but it's in trouble due to coronavirus.</p>

www.news.com.au

Slightly different results from those presented earlier.

 

[RooFlyer]

I posted this elsewhere, but interesting to compare against Pushka's ABC survey (Newspoll, in the Oz ... and they include Tasmania with a decent sample size, unlike 'our' ABC ). I think the numbers are surprisingly similar (except maybe for Andrews in Vic).

 

[Pushka]

I posted this elsewhere, but interesting to compare against Pushka's ABC survey (Newspoll, in the Oz ... and they include Tasmania with a decent sample size, unlike 'our' ABC ). I think the numbers are surprisingly similar (except maybe for Andrews in Vic).

View attachment 216401

Thanks for reposting here. I wasn't sure which thread it was originally in but it was the one I was referring to.
Interesting it is Daniels results where the ABC has reported a lower satisfaction.

I do think my graph is prettier than your chart though.