Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

This is a very interesting article on the spread of the virus.Not just Australia but worldwide.Some very interesting thoughts such as clusters in rich areas are not necessarily due to bad behaviour but more likely due to the lower immunity of the rich with their pampered upbringing as against lower socio economic groups who are exposed to a much wider variety of infectious agents.
"It is theoretically possible that socioeconomically privileged individuals really do lack some immune-response mechanism that protects individuals who have been exposed to a wider array of infectious pathogens. A recent report on COVID-19 surveillance testing at a Boston homeless shelter, for instance, contained the stunning disclosure that 36 percent of 408 screened individuals tested positive for COVID-19. Yet the vast majority were asymptomatic, and even the few who were symptomatic did not diverge statistically from the 64 percent of tested individuals who were COVID-19-negative. "

Could it also be that those in lower socio-economic groups are on average younger and also perhaps those pre-disposed to a serious negative outcome, have already departed this world due to lack of access to the same level of medical care?

I wonder what we will see in Africa. Although, as we know, the illness does not only target older members of society and those with underlying conditions, they do represent a disproportional amount of victims with serious illness or death. In Africa the population as a whole is much younger (on average) and those with underlying medical conditions may have already passed due to lack of access to modern medicine that we take for granted in developed countries. Whether there is a big difference there, time will tell.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This is a very interesting article on the spread of the virus.Not just Australia but worldwide.Some very interesting thoughts such as clusters in rich areas are not necessarily due to bad behaviour but more likely due to the lower immunity of the rich with their pampered upbringing as against lower socio economic groups who are exposed to a much wider variety of infectious agents.
"It is theoretically possible that socioeconomically privileged individuals really do lack some immune-response mechanism that protects individuals who have been exposed to a wider array of infectious pathogens. A recent report on COVID-19 surveillance testing at a Boston homeless shelter, for instance, contained the stunning disclosure that 36 percent of 408 screened individuals tested positive for COVID-19. Yet the vast majority were asymptomatic, and even the few who were symptomatic did not diverge statistically from the 64 percent of tested individuals who were COVID-19-negative. "

Interesting as well that he concludes flying is not a common source of infection.He cites the case of an infected NZ FA who didn't have any known cases on the flights he took but spread the disease at a wedding reception.
"It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs, notwithstanding the sardine-like manner in which airlines transport us and the ample opportunity that the industry’s bureaucracy offers for contact tracing. I have been made aware of a Vietnamese woman who apparently spread infection on a flight. And New Zealand has one cluster that’s based around an infected but asymptomatic flight attendant. But the many known infections he caused took place at a wedding reception, not in an airplane. This flight attendant was running what was, in effect, an unintended experiment, with the passengers on board his aircraft playing the role of control group. And the results offer a microcosm of the nature of SSEs as a whole. "

Certainly worth a read.

COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons

In the absence of any comprehensive database of COVID-19 superspreading events, I built my own.

quillette.com

Thanks for sharing. An interesting read even if the data in it is somewhat empirically gathered.

It does reinforce that close contact is a prime risk factor, especially if it is very close and also includes touching. Remember that Boris continued to be a handshaker including when visiting hospitals!

On the air conditioning though. There is TRUE ducted airconditioning, and then there are the in-room airconditioners, such as the one in the chinese restaurant example which are basically just glorified fans. ie They like a fan just suck in air and blow it out again almost immediately. In a true ducted sustem the air has to travel some distance from when it is drawn in, and then eventually returned. Fans can increase the range of droplets., as well as aersols. Though in most circumatsnces viral loads from CV19 are thought to be low.

We know from the SARS apartment cluster that fans can spread viruses and cause deaths through spreading droplets further. In this case it was combined with patient 0 in that building who was alos a super-spreader (as in he was proven to be an emitter of very high viral loads).

As the author stated jet airliners have not been incubators of CV19 despite having infected people on board for lengthy periods. Note that the AC in passenger airlines are true ducted systems. Passenger aircraft also have multiple intakes and outlets and so do not blow air along the cabin.

So if you are eventually travelling in a country with active CV19 avoid spaces (shops, restaurants, bars etc) that use fans and in room airconditioners if you are sharing that space. If indoors in a shared space make sure it is one that has a proper ducted AC system.

 

[RooFlyer]

As the author stated jet airliners have not been incubators of CV19 despite having infected people on board for lengthy periods. Note that the AC in passenger airlines are true ducted systems. Passenger aircraft also have multiple intakes and outlets and so do not blow air along the cabin.

Plus I think airliner AC units are finely filtered, contributing to the retardation of spread, I think.

I wonder if @jb747 would be able to comment if he thought airline AC 'cooling packs' could be tweaked or upgraded to an even higher level of filtration in a cost-effective way, so airlines could argue they are 'safe(er)' to fly? Say, at an airline-maintenance level? I'm thinking of using a different 'grade' of whatever they use as a filter, or increasing the fresh air dilution and/or spent air rejection rates? (I know you didn't regularly put your head under the 'hood', but maybe you've heard things lately )

 

[moa999]

Have we actually seen any proven cases of aircraft transmission from those sitting close.

AFAIK aircraft recirculate some air, but also bring in outside air, but use some pretty good HEPA filters

I'd be more worried about surfaces in the bathroom for example.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Have we actually seen any proven cases of aircraft transmission from those sitting close.

Yes. In-flight Transmission Cluster of COVID-19: A Retrospective Case Series

But it does seem to be very rare.

And on sitting within 2 rows..

On the 2-Row Rule for Infectious Disease Transmission on Aircraft

With over two billion airline passengers annually, in-flight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Many instances…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[RooFlyer]

Nomination for Cretin of the Day (lagged).

Shadow police minister steps down after attending illegal gathering

Queensland Opposition MP Trevor Watts quits his position as shadow police minister after being fined for attending a function on Sunday that breached coronavirus rules on public gatherings.

www.abc.net.au

 

[jakeseven7]

With the rate Aus is going and the huge uptake of the COVIDSafe app, hopefully this thread can be closed soon due to lack of virus spread!

 

[SydneySwan]

With the rate Aus is going and the huge uptake of the COVIDSafe app, hopefully this thread can be closed soon due to lack of virus spread!

That's a nice thought but I suspect this thread will be going for several months yet.

 

[jb747]

Plus I think airliner AC units are finely filtered, contributing to the retardation of spread, I think.

I wonder if @jb747 would be able to comment if he thought airline AC 'cooling packs' could be tweaked or upgraded to an even higher level of filtration in a cost-effective way, so airlines could argue they are 'safe(er)' to fly? Say, at an airline-maintenance level? I'm thinking of using a different 'grade' of whatever they use as a filter, or increasing the fresh air dilution and/or spent air rejection rates? (I know you didn't regularly put your head under the 'hood', but maybe you've heard things lately )

The issue in airliners isn't the air. That's already heavily filtered, and recycled on a very short time frame. The option doesn't exist to increase the overall flow, and I doubt that it would be of any value. The biggest issue by far would have to be the items that people touch and interact with. Aircraft are pretty grubby places at the best of times. Cleaning them properly between flights will be just about impossible. Perhaps they should be like ULA's spacecraft. Single use.

With the rate Aus is going and the huge uptake of the COVIDSafe app, hopefully this thread can be closed soon due to lack of virus spread!

I suspect that uptake of the app will stall, at not very far above it's current level. Those who want it will grab it immediately. They have already done so. Those who don't trust the government(s) will never do so. What percentage of people have devices that can't use it? How many will read about the way it used up battery life in Singapore, and will hold off for something based on the Apple API?

 

[p--and--t]

Aircraft are pretty grubby places at the best of times. Cleaning them properly between flights will be just about impossible.

One would hope that an outcome of the current mess is that this will be properly investigated and practices improved. The surfaces on the inside of planes (and hotels) must be a high risk to disease in general that has not really been acknowledged in the past.

Hilton CleanStay With Lysol Coming In June 2020

Hilton has teamed up with Lysol and Mayo Clinic to come up with new cleaning standards.

loyaltylobby.com

 

[SydneySwan]

Aircraft are pretty grubby places at the best of times. Cleaning them properly between flights will be just about impossible. Perhaps they should be like ULA's spacecraft. Single use.

Single use - now there's a thought. Single fare SYD - MEL about $500k per person (back of the envelope - need to do so some proper analysis).

 

[Pushka]

Single use - now there's a thought. Single fare SYD - MEL about $500k per person (back of the envelope - need to do so some proper analysis).

Does that price factor in the vacancy of the middle seat?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Aircraft are pretty grubby places at the best of times. Cleaning them properly between flights will be just about impossible. Perhaps they should be like ULA's spacecraft. Single use.

Well one could just quarantine each plane 72 hours after each flight if used on a CV19 route. Not cheap to do so, but cheaper than single use

ie International flights to/from Austrlia apart from to/from NZ.


Our domestic routes should be CV19 free in the near future.

 

[Pushka]

It’s a good headline to have

 

[banana boy]

It’s a good headline to have
View attachment 216552

Even COVID-19 doesn't want to go to Adelaide.

 

[Pushka]

Even COVID-19 doesn't want to go to Adelaide.

Works for me.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The important number in Australia at present is the unknown local transmission numbers each day.

For a while now this has only been extremely low and often 1 or none. This is very good news.

Tests are now also being ramped up up. This is also very good news as these will help to track down those with asymptomatic symptoms, or those that had very mild symptoms and so were illegible for testing.

Zero's may look good in a table, but will only be truly zero's when truly widespread testing is being performed.

 

[Pushka]

The important number in Australia at present is the unknown local transmission numbers each day.

For a while now this has only been extremely low and often 1 or none. This is very good news.

Tests are now also being ramped up up. This is also very good news as these will help to track down those with asymptomatic symptoms, or those that had very mild symptoms and so were illegible for testing.

Zero's may look good in a table, but will only be truly zero's when truly widespread testing is being performed.

I thought the Deputy CMO said today that widespread testing wasn’t going to produce helpful results for action.

SA already had the highest per capita regime of testing. Had the first drive throughs in Australia. Opened up testing for anyone with even a hint of anything two weeks ago.

If we had asymptomatic community transmission then we would have had others “catching it” by now and developing symptoms then being tested.

 

[drron]

It’s a good headline to have
View attachment 216552

The Australian Antarctic bases are safer.

 

[p--and--t]

The Australian Antarctic bases are safer.

If this is one-up-man-ship. I vote for the ISS [International Space Station]