Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

If a vaccine is never developed then your suggestion would be we would never travel overseas again.

That was not my suggestion at all, and so I am not sure why you are claiming that as my suggestion.

Look up just a few posts and you will see my thoughts are:

• Travel to be limited to:

1. Freight (sea and air) and essential travellers,
2. Those willing to undergo at their cost quarantine on return.
3. The exception being any other "bubble" counties such as New Zealand.

and with respect to my own personal decision.

Only if really good treatments and or/or vaccines are developed would I risk catching it by say travelling.

So no Europe for me until one of those happens. Others may be happy to take the risk of contracting it, but not I.

Under my "guidelines" you would be free to travel if you wish provided that you quarantine at your cost on return. That is assuming that the other country/ies will allow you to travel there.


I have no objection to you travelling and in you risking your health by catching CV19, just as long as you do not risk the health of the general public in Australia (including me).

 

[tgh]

A lot of Qlders have already decided it's ok to go out.
I sinned today , two quick shop visits for non essential items.. but so did the rest of Brisbane , or so it seemed.
The main drag through the shopping area was bumper to bumper, it was frantically busy.
They were queued up in a parking lane to get into Office works and I gave up looking for a park at Good Guys.
I was into Hardly normal right on 10am and 15 min later they were pouring in
My bro in law went to the Sandhills on Moreton Island ( in his Gin palace with his family) and said that there were at least 200 boats in the anchorage.
I sense a bit of mass disobedience…..

 

[Pushka]

That was not my suggestion at all, and so I am not sure why you are claiming that as my suggestion.

Look up just a few posts and you will see my thoughts are:

• Travel to be limited to:

1. Freight (sea and air) and essential travellers,
2. Those willing to undergo at their cost quarantine on return.
3. The exception being any other "bubble" counties such as New Zealand.

and with respect to my own personal decision.

Only if really good treatments and or/or vaccines are developed would I risk catching it by say travelling.

So no Europe for me until one of those happens. Others may be happy to take the risk of contracting it, but not I.

Under my "guidelines" you would be free to travel if you wish provided that you quarantine at your cost on return. That is assuming that the other country/ies will allow you to travel there.

I'm prepared to quarantine. Heck, not at a hotel currently but that's what I've been doing for the last few weeks anyway but going out more now. Staying at a hotel at my expense will be factored in. I will travel overseas. I will go to the UK. I do plan on seeing my kids and likely grandchildren once they return to UK. I have a friend who caught Dengue in Singapore. Another teenager friend of my sons died at 20 from meningococcal disease. cough happens. Once this round and likely round two of Covid has happened, and likely by end of next year. And likely there will be no vaccine. Actually I am booked for Egypt in Dec 2021 and have been for I'd say, a year now. Cruises - not so much on a ship but certainly the smaller boats.

Day 4 of no new cases in SA today. School returns tomorrow.

 

[N860CR]

I have a friend who caught Dengue in Singapore. Another teenager friend of my sons died at 20 from meningococcal disease. cough happens

Yep. Life has to go on. I had meningococcal in my late teens. I’d never wish it on anyone, but I wouldn’t expect the world to literally stop to save me either. At some point we need to look at the greater good.

 

[nutwood]

I agree, that was the plan initially told to us, but it's not been maintained. The hospital system is certainly not swamped. As I've said a few times, It's operating so undercapacity that wards are closed and nurses have been stood down. Perhaps that was part of the plan (ie: to get things ready for a rush), but that hasn't happened and we've moved beyond that point now, so what's next?

We're now at the point where politicians and media are so obsessed with numbers that we are no longer sure what we're aiming for.

The point I was making was that in order to follow their "flatten the curve" model and keep hospitals from being swamped, we need an acceptable daily hospitalisation rate. The current hospitalisation rate is virtually 0 and it seems the aim for the daily infection rate is about the same.

If we're going to play a numbers game at daily press conferences, then governments need to be specifying exactly what number an acceptable daily rate actually is. If we're aiming for 0, then we've moved onto eradication, which wasn't the plan last I checked.

You come back to the essential question, what Covid-19 death rate is acceptable? These sums are done all the time in any risk management scenario. There are risks in every aspect of our lives. Some crazy number of people die from falling out of bed. Every year!
Because this is a "public" event, there's a lot of talk about total elimination of Covid deaths. It's not going to happen, just like 100% safe beds have yet to be developed.

 

[Pushka]

You come back to the essential question, what Covid-19 death rate is acceptable? These sums are done all the time in any risk management scenario. There are risks in every aspect of our lives. Some crazy number of people die from falling out of bed. Every year!
Because this is a "public" event, there's a lot of talk about total elimination of Covid deaths. It's not going to happen, just like 100% safe beds have yet to be developed.

And then there is ladders!

 

[nutwood]

And then there is ladders!

There are indeed ladders. Depending how you organised the statistics, Covid-19 could fade into insignificance compared to the menace lurking in every house!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

cough happens.

It does indeed. My daughter and I both caught Whooping Cough while in Paris. My wife and one other daughter did too, but they both only had mild symptoms.

3 months each for my youngest daughter and I in recovering. With hooping cough when the cycle of coughing starts you literally cannot breathe. After many cycles you learn to no longer panic, but it is terrifying each time none the less. My daughter had it worse than myself and would literally turn blue from the lack of oxygen. Seeing her fear for weeks on end I remember well. She was an elite athlete at the time.

While we had both been inoculated for hooping cough she as a teenager was due for her booster soon. And I at 50 was also due but unaware that I was due. So I am a lot more thorough now.

I have travelled widely in the Third World and take measured risks including places with various diseases and so I have been inoculated with most things that you can be for including Yellow Fever.

Rabies vaccination I put off knowing that you had time to get shots after if you were ever bit. And I was bitten by a monkey while on a sea kayaking trip in Vietnam. So off to the clinic for me in Hanoi for the rabies injections, and with one injection per toothmark I do not recommend it (Though frothing at the mouth I recommend even less so and so yes have the shots!).



So yes travel to me while risking various diseases is a personal decision. I have no trouble once things settle down you, or others, heading off overseas as long as you are properly quarantined on return. ie Not self-isolation, not even with an ankle tracker as that does not stop you having visitors.


PS: cough happens, but with Cv19 at present it is more the whole treatment plant.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And then there is ladders!

Yes both have in common that they most affect elderly men. Both can lead to death. One to permanent lung damage, the other permanent brain damage.

Both have in common too that poor outcomes can be avoided or minimised.

 

[oz_mark]

Yes both have in common that they most affect elderly men. Both can lead to death. One to permanent lung damage, the other permanent brain damage.

Although given the reported increase in (CV19 related) strokes in 30 and 40 year olds in the US, it seems CV19 can have outcomes other than lung damage.

 

[N860CR]

You come back to the essential question, what Covid-19 death rate is acceptable?

Personally, I’d say 10 times the annual flu mortality rate would be acceptable.

 

[RooFlyer]

We're now at the point where politicians and media are so obsessed with numbers that we are no longer sure what we're aiming for.

Actually, we are at the point that state governments are announcing relaxation of isolation type rules; all going well there will be a roll-out of the rule-slackening that has been under planning by the committee appointed by the National Cabinet for some weeks.

I think the govts have been pretty good at not breathlessly announcing every idea or possible course, when they don't know whether its truly under control - think of NW Tas. Doing that would invite endless "what if" speculation from the press - not helpful.

I don't mind if they focus on deaths/cases to keep the population, including me, focused.

 

[nutwood]

Yes both have in common that they most affect elderly men. Both can lead to death. One to permanent lung damage, the other permanent brain damage.

Both have in common too that poor outcomes can be avoided or minimised.

My worst ladder incident was in my twenties? 1.2m doesn't seem much but when you go left, whilst your ladder goes right, political analogies fade into insignificance. Flat on my back on concrete. Had it been my head, I might have worked on the political angle...

 

[tgh]

All you youngsters missed it.. but it is whooping cough…. age has some value..

and I am still galloping up and down high ladders...

 

[Pushka]

All you youngsters missed it.. but it is whooping cough…. age has some value..

and I am still galloping up and down high ladders...

My Aunty had Diptheria..

 

[p--and--t]

I had whooping cough diagnosed as a >50 yo with pathology returning inconclusive results. Not life threatening for me, but not anything I would want to ever wish on anyone.

I've since had all my vaccination options reviewed and had just about everything except Rabies.

 

[drron]

One does have to look at the other side of the picture.Keeping the current restrictions in place will also cause deaths and quite possibly many more than Covid 19.These reports from the UK.

There is a risk of a cancer epidemic following the response to coronavirus say academics - About Manchester

A study out today highlights how the repurposing of health systems and implementation of social distancing measures, including national lockdowns, have had negative effects on patients with cancer. These effects included delays in urgent referrals and patients having their cancer treatment, such...

aboutmanchester.co.uk

Failure to fully integrate NHS and private hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic will increase cancer death rates - ecancer

By Professor Gordon C Wishart, Chief Medical Officer at Check4Cancer, Visiting Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine • The

ecancer.org

Certainly locally the number of patients treated with radiotherapy and chemptherapy have dropped due to the distancing requirements.
Screening tests basically closed down.Elective surgery such as various biopsies for cancer have decreased.
One of the major causes of a bad outcome in cancer is delayed diagnosis.The age of these patients is a deal younger than those dying of covid.

 

[SydneySwan]

One does have to look at the other side of the picture.Keeping the current restrictions in place will also cause deaths and quite possibly many more than Covid 19.These reports from the UK.

There is a risk of a cancer epidemic following the response to coronavirus say academics - About Manchester

A study out today highlights how the repurposing of health systems and implementation of social distancing measures, including national lockdowns, have had negative effects on patients with cancer. These effects included delays in urgent referrals and patients having their cancer treatment, such...

aboutmanchester.co.uk

Failure to fully integrate NHS and private hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic will increase cancer death rates - ecancer

By Professor Gordon C Wishart, Chief Medical Officer at Check4Cancer, Visiting Professor of Cancer Surgery at Anglia Ruskin School of Medicine • The

ecancer.org

Certainly locally the number of patients treated with radiotherapy and chemptherapy have dropped due to the distancing requirements.
Screening tests basically closed down.Elective surgery such as various biopsies for cancer have decreased.
One of the major causes of a bad outcome in cancer is delayed diagnosis.The age of these patients is a deal younger than those dying of covid.

This is a valuable contribution to this discussio.

 

[RooFlyer]

@drron have you heard anything about the recent NW Tas cases (last 3-4 days)? 4 new cases announced Sunday night. All medical workers and/or associated with NW hospitals, I think. News says authorities are contact tracing, but surely they are part of the job lot that went into home isolation ... ?10 days ago? And I thought all the medical workers had had contacts traced already? Or are they all current workers, treating COVID patients, like this one sounds: from the Examiner:

A Mersey Community Hospital worker who worked in the hospital's COVID-19 ward had few contacts after he developed symptoms for coronavirus, the state's Public Health director Mark Veitch says.
Health Minister Sarah Courtney on Sunday said the man in his 40s was the state's newest coronavirus case and worked only in the COVID ward of the hospital.
"I'd like to reassure other staff at that site that this gentleman has presented swiftly ... and did only work in the COVID-positive ward at that hospital," she said.

I guess no infection control is perfect, but its a worry. I've been studiously not criticising any aspect of the epidemic response, but the more I hear about the NW Tas break-out, the more I wonder.

 

[drron]

At least 2 of the cases were workers from the Mersey hospital.Some of the less ill or those unsuitable for ICU treatment were transferred to the Mersey from the NWRH. The sicker ones to LGH.
However it appears the message got through as those workers stopped work as soon as they had symptoms.As well there was a totally separate team working on the Covid side of the medical ward at the Mersey.the medical there could be divide into separate wards with separate entrances.One side consists of 10 single rooms so OK for treating the Covid patients.