Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Quickstatus]

but it won't protect you from every flu.

Or the common cold, much of which is caused by rhinoviruses and coronaviruses

 

[serfty]

True but the distribution is based on local ordering as well. So the vaccines don’t just keep coming in. I’m thinking they were told to hold off additional distribution for a few weeks because they did not want the FluVax to be given too early.
As the FluVax is made by several different manufacturers, the horizontal part won’t be due to a problem with manufacturing

No problems, but I did come across that many places ran out of the shots earlier this month and were awaiting delivery, not knowing when they would come.

 

[Pushka]

Hard to know. We were told by our pharmac_ department to hold off on vaccinations as one of the B strains only provided at most 3 month coverage. So don’t give it too early. No earlier than Late April early May was the recommendation,

Production is done in batches and monthly production volumes are based on historical volumes.

Stockpiling FluVax is not possible because of the changes in the virus over time.

I think this year the FluVax is no longer??? Made by inoculating fertilised chicken eggs. They are now made by inoculating mammalian cell cultures. So egg allergic people should be OK

And for the first time when having mine, the pharmacist told me to have a booster in July and because of SLE stuff I could qualify for the stronger free one. On Anzac Day last year husband was very unwell with the flu - bedridden so not a man flu, so we both got in early this year.

 

[Quickstatus]

As to the proportional government response, COVID Vs flu, I think its relevant to note again that the response to COVID19 was in response to the situation in February/March when things were so dire in Italy etc. We still don't know what the end game will be. I think the view in the UK, Italy etc would be that the substantial restrictions and effort put in place for COVID19 compared to the flu is, if anything, too little, too late.

And the messages out of China and WHO did not help -(Numbers in China with its huge population densities, and Who advisory about international travel in particular).
They had to act based on incomplete and delayed information.
A little too late for some but not for AU/NZ fortunately,
But it also should form a national strategy going forward for the Flu is my point. And one of these days who knows when there WILL be a Flu pandemic.

 

[Pushka]

And the messages out of China and WHO did not help -(Numbers in China with its huge population densities, and Who advisory about international travel in particular).
They had to act based on incomplete and delayed information.
A little too late for some but not for AU/NZ fortunately,
But it also should form a national strategy going forward for the Flu is my point. And one of these days who knows when there will be a flu pandemic.

I notice that UK has now dropped China from its world graphic representation of Covid as they state the data is meaningless.

I also saw Geoffrey Robertson has vented ferociously about WHO's incompetence.

 

[Quickstatus]

No problems, but I did come across that many places ran out of the shots earlier this month and were awaiting delivery, no knowing when they would come.

Hopefully the vaccination rates will go up despite Djokovic and Evans.

Note that unless confirmed to be Flu, a common cold can mimic the symptom severity of the Flu

 

[Hvr]

I notice that UK has now dropped China from its world graphic representation of Covid as they state the data is meaningless.

Nor are the UK's figures that accurate either:

Why UK Covid-19 deaths are being undercounted – and by how much

The government’s daily count excludes those who died after contracting the disease but weren’t in hospital.

www.newstatesman.com

So what does the figure show? Broadly, the number of people who have died in hospital having tested positive for Covid-19 in a 24-hour period.

So, if you die at home and/or weren't tested then you're not counted.

If the Chinese figures are under reported, and it is more likely than not that they are, then the actual deaths/infections recorded should be counted and noted as not being accurate. This is because the number of deaths/infections reported have actually occurred and there are more than reported.

Whether this was done deliberately* or through incompetence can be determined later, just as it will be in the UK and every other country when the review of the pandemic is conducted by independent scientists.

*Whilst not a betting man this is where I would place a wager.

 

[OZDUCK]

I did some checking a few days ago and at that stage the rates of flu were running at 81% lower than 'normal' and the rate of vaccination was 330% higher than the previous year. And the Government had ordered 16.5 million doses of flu vaccine compared to around 12.5 million last year.

This page gives some of the latest figures.

Record 16.5 million flu vaccines to protect Australians

The Australian Government has secured three million additional doses of seasonal influenza vaccines to protect Australians from the flu, bringing the total number of flu vaccines available for Australians to 16.5 million for 2020.

www.health.gov.au

 

[Pushka]

Nor are the UK's figures that accurate either:

Why UK Covid-19 deaths are being undercounted – and by how much

The government’s daily count excludes those who died after contracting the disease but weren’t in hospital.

www.newstatesman.com

So, if you die at home and/or weren't tested then you're not counted.

If the Chinese figures are under reported, and it is more likely than not that they are, then the actual deaths/infections recorded should be counted and noted as not being accurate. This is because the number of deaths/infections reported have actually occurred and there are more than reported.

Whether this was done deliberately* or through incompetence can be determined later, just as it will be in the UK and every other country when the review of the pandemic is conducted by independent scientists.

*Whilst not a betting man this is where I would place a wager.

Yep. I agree with that too. If a Post Mortem test wasn't done then it makes sense those figures werent counted. People in the older age group die of pneumonia frequently so it would be difficult to isolate that from Covid without the test.

Modelling for Australia factored in a 5-15% understatement of China's reported numbers.

 

[N860CR]

My point is not that it is or that the response has been overcooked. But that it seems that the national response to the Flu has been a several orders magnitude less than Cov and by extension it seems acceptable that thousands have died from the Flu without much intervention apart from vaccinations and community announcements. It Is well known FluVax is not 100% effective and Herd immunity is partial, so other measures perhaps social distancing are necessary to bring the annual morbidity and mortality down.
It would be interesting to see how current measures affect influenza in 2020. Then maybe more robust mechanisms can be put in place annually to curb the Flu.

Yep I agree. We keep getting told not to compare this virus to the Flu, but I do feel we have to make some reasonable comparisons.

For one, we accept that a fairly large number of people die annual from the Flu however have not a single social process in place to protect from this. The only thing is a vaccine that is far from a sure prevention. Everyone accepts this Coronavirus is worse than the Flu, so why do we feel the death rate should be less than the Flu death rate (a virus that already has a vaccine)? I can't quote anyone because I'm not sure who said it, but I recall hearing some doctor/poli behind a microphone stating that this Coronavirus is 10-15 times worse than a Flu. So shouldn't we be accepting a death rate 10-15 times higher? It's funny that we're in a "pandemic", yet the general public seems to think zero is the number of fatalities that is acceptable.

If we look at actual deaths (so 80 last I checked), all those over 90 in nursing homes can largely be discounted as the actual cause of death was one of 100 existing conditions. There have been numerous deaths reported where the victim had "several other respiratory conditons", so the virus wasn't what caused the death, it just added to the pile. There's then the question that remains over all these deaths off the cruise ship, where people were kept in largely inhumane conditions while sick because of government panic about the virus (last I checked, when someone is sick, we hospitalise or treat them - not lock them in a tiny cabin on a cesspit ship). Take all of that out, and we've got how many people who literally died unexpectedly because of this virus? I'd say very very few in this country.

I'm not trying to discount the severity of this. Several countries let this get out of hand to the point they couldn't manage it (US, Spain, Italy etc), however they are in the minority.

 

[Quickstatus]

We keep getting told not to compare this virus to the Flu

As soon as I mention the flu, people think I doing a Flu vs Cov comparison. But they miss my point which you have nicely alluded to:

we accept that a fairly large number of people die annual from the Flu however have not a single social process in place to protect from this.

yet the general public seems to think zero is the number of fatalities that is acceptable.

Hard to reconcile the two. Many years of influenza vaccinations and community announcements have not really made a dent in the Flu mortality and morbidity. Maybe this is the acceptable norm. But it is hard to reconcile.

For the avoidance of doubt:
Cov is is bad - socials restrictions have flattened the curve - no doubt needed to be done.
Flu is bad - what are we going to do differently moving forward about Flu, or are we going to accept that current recurrent mortality of maybe 1500-3000 is OK

 

[oz_mark]

Yep I agree. We keep getting told not to compare this virus to the Flu, but I do feel we have to make some reasonable comparisons.

For one, we accept that a fairly large number of people die annual from the Flu however have not a single social process in place to protect from this. The only thing is a vaccine that is far from a sure prevention. Everyone accepts this Coronavirus is worse than the Flu, so why do we feel the death rate should be less than the Flu death rate (a virus that already has a vaccine)? I can't quote anyone because I'm not sure who said it, but I recall hearing some doctor/poli behind a microphone stating that this Coronavirus is 10-15 times worse than a Flu. So shouldn't we be accepting a death rate 10-15 times higher? It's funny that we're in a "pandemic", yet the general public seems to think zero is the number of fatalities that is acceptable.

If we look at actual deaths (so 80 last I checked), all those over 90 in nursing homes can largely be discounted as the actual cause of death was one of 100 existing conditions. There have been numerous deaths reported where the victim had "several other respiratory conditons", so the virus wasn't what caused the death, it just added to the pile. There's then the question that remains over all these deaths off the cruise ship, where people were kept in largely inhumane conditions while sick because of government panic about the virus (last I checked, when someone is sick, we hospitalise or treat them - not lock them in a tiny cabin on a cesspit ship). Take all of that out, and we've got how many people who literally died unexpectedly because of this virus? I'd say very very few in this country.

I'm not trying to discount the severity of this. Several countries let this get out of hand to the point they couldn't manage it (US, Spain, Italy etc), however they are in the minority.

The aim has not been to get the number of deaths to zero. The aim has been to ensure the health system is not swamped.

 

[p--and--t]

Nothing like a pandemic to get Vax rates up.

Many years of influenza vaccinations and community announcements have not really made a dent in the Flu mortality and morbidity.

A very good side effect/wake up call to the general populace. Hopefully, this will be repeated in subsequent years.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yep. I agree with that too. If a Post Mortem test wasn't done then it makes sense those figures werent counted. People in the older age group die of pneumonia frequently so it would be difficult to isolate that from Covid without the test.

Modelling for Australia factored in a 5-15% understatement of China's reported numbers.

Many countries including the USA, UK, Italy etc all do not include "in-home" deaths.

The reality is at present that no one really knows what any countries true death toll is.

Case rates also mean different things in different countries, and testing regimes and rates are different from country to country. So comparing any one country to another based purely on figures is fraught with danger. One should take any figures as having a huge +- variation.

 

[Quickstatus]

The aim has not been to get the number of deaths to zero. The aim has been to ensure the health system is not swamped.

Correct but a significant number of commentators even politicians from various sections of the community is saying that containment is not enough. They want zero deaths or elimination. In which case they are hypocritical - see Flu

 

[oz_mark]

I did some checking a few days ago and at that stage the rates of flu were running at 81% lower than 'normal' and the rate of vaccination was 330% higher than the previous year. And the Government had ordered 16.5 million doses of flu vaccine compared to around 12.5 million last year.

Presumably most of the 81% drop is social distancing and washing hands related?

 

[Quickstatus]

A very good side effect/wake up call to the general populace. Hopefully, this will be repeated in subsequent years.

Unfortunately FluVax has not been shown to be really effective. Effectively half dont work.
Whats is needed are the social measures.


And human nature is described very nicely here. Cov - it could get to you = panic and severe measures put in place. Over time complacency will creep back in. But even if millions die each year from transmissible disease (- especially in children) but because it cant get to me, there is nothing to worry about.

 

[OZDUCK]

Presumably most of the 81% drop is social distancing and washing hands related?

I would assume so but I also wonder if the lack of 'foreign' visitors also means that we are not being exposed to new flu strains that have not been in Australia yet.

 

[p--and--t]

Here is some info re 2020 FluVax

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/03/atagi-advice-on-seasonal-influenza-vaccines-in-2020.pdf

I note in that report the following comment

" Revaccination later in the same year is not routinely recommended, but may benefit some individuals due to personal circumstances, such as travel or pregnancy"

I'm just wondering, and maybe those in the know could comment. Is this comment due to a budgetary, lack of efficacy, risk or other reason.

I had my flu injection early march, was considering asking for another late June. Sensible/unwise?

 

[Quickstatus]

I did some checking a few days ago and at that stage the rates of flu were running at 81% lower than 'normal'

Have a look at the CDC figures for Flu mortality in the US for Oct 2019-Apr 2020 and also for Italy.

....
there was no policy of social distancing for Flu.
hand washing - only superficial recommendations.

Presumably most of the 81% drop is social distancing and washing hands related?