Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

Huge test volumes per day are excellent, but it is reliant in the main in people deciding to go and get tested. If not tested and found positive it also undermines contact tracing. A significant reason why the Victorian second wave got as big as it did was that a significant number of people did not go and get tested, and some that did did not isolate. That there were also often in very large multi generational households of 15 odd connected with similar households just very conducive to spread as well. It all added to the momentum, capped off by also working in workplaces that were conducive to transmission.

Feels a lot like your trying to project the Vic situation onto NSW.

The Northern Beaches is a very wealthy area, it is not a place with large multigenerational households or where people are likley to be working in multiple jobs. It is possibly the most anglo part of Sydney, the message is getting through clearly and friends living there in lockdown are all reporting great compliance.

The virus hasnt spread widely to Qld from NSW, the one positive NSW resident that travelled there returned the next day and is in isolation, Ive seen no reports of it having caused any outbreak in Qld (and if it did would be partly be because Qld were unable to test the person when they first requested a test). Likewise the one returned case in Vic hasnt spread it widely in Vic, as they were isolating from point of return.

** Just read that a Queensland resident returned form Norther Beaches is positive and again has been in isolation, so not panic needed. Just like July, the people bringing the virus from inetrstate back seem to be Queensland residents.

Dr Chant has said the testing turnout has been excellent both in the northern beaches and across the state as a whole, exposure venues are posted in real time (something Vic has never ever done), There are huge number of cases outside the Northern part of the Northern Beaches and where they are they have been linked back to the Avalon cluster.

Police are manning the main exits from the northern Northern Beaches, and also been spotted doing checks on souther end of Northern Beaches (friend stopped on Military road Mosman today for a random check).

When i went out to grab last minute xmas food items this morning, absolutely everyone excep the odd small child was masked, and I notice Coles now fnally has QR codes at entry, checkouts and stuck all over the freezers for some reason.

Majority of NSW has previously and appears to be the case again now, cooperated with government requests to get tested and follow guidelines without the draconian measures used in Vic.

This time of year, supposed toshow goodwill to all, not secretly wish that Avalon cluster gets out of control Melbourne style.

NSW has got this.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well results are within 48 hours, so even if it is:

9 / 41, 865 (Wed Tests) or 9 / 44, 466 (Tue Tests) = positivity rate is 0.02% which is neglibly higher than 9 / 60,184 = 0.01% if we use todays test numbers.

I missed today's 11am presser as had to go pick up prawns for xmas lunch, will need to go find it online now for more detail.

Yes my point is really just an academic one (I do like to understand the data). The sheer volume of tests is impressive.

The positivity rate on Covidlive for NSW is 0.03%. If accurate this suggests test results of about 30K in the last 24 hours. (which is still a very high number of tests)

So there is probably a lag in getting test results back as labs can only process what they can process in a day. Again not surprising given the sheer volume of tests. Whereas if you have enough staff and swabs you can easily do much greater volumes.

 

[Lynda2475]

The positivity rate on Covidlive for NSW is 0.03%. If accurate this suggests test results of about 30K in the last 24 hours. (which is still a very high number)

Covid live gets 0.03% because its uses 18 as the numerator (so local + overseas acquired) cases. NSW is providing test results within 48 hours (majority within 24 hours) so would had returned at least 40k yesterday. A friend on the Norther Northern beaches got her results within 12 hours.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Feels a lot like your trying to project the Vic situation onto NSW.

The Northern Beaches is a very wealthy area, it is not a place with large multigenerational households or where people are likley to be working in multiple jobs. It is possibly the most anglo part of Sydney, the message is getting throughc learly and friends living ther ein lockdown are all reporting great compliance.

The virus hasnt spread to Qld from NSW, the one positive case that travelled there returned the next day and is in isolation, Ive seen no reports of it having caused any outbreak in Qld (and if it did would be partly be because Qld were unable to test the person when they first requested a test). Likewise the one returned case in Vic hasnt spread it widely in Vic, as they were isolating from point of return.

Dr Chant has said the testing turnout has been excellent both in the northern beaches and across the state as a whole, exposure venues are posted in real time (something Vic has never ever done), There are huge number of cases outside the Northern part of the NOrthern BEaches and where they are they have been linked back to the Avalon cluster.

Polic are manning the mai exists form the northern Northern Beaches, and also spotted doing cheks on souther end of Northern Beaches. When i went out to grab last minute xmas food items this morning, absolutely everyone excep the odd small child was masked, and I notice Coles now fnally has QR codes at entry, checkouts and stuck all over the freezers for some reason.

Majority of NSW has previously and appears to be the case again now, cooperated with government requests to get tested and follow guidelines without the draconian measures used in Vic.

This time of year, supposed ot show goodwill to all, not secretly wish that Valon cluster gets out of control Melbourne style.

NSW has got this.

No. Just indicating that why there is valid concern. Without known transmission neither you nor NSW Health knows where it could be and NSW Health is very upfront on this. The fact is that it not just Northern Beaches as there are numerous exposure sites outside of the Northern Beaches that are already known. And the mystery cases means that there are most likely other unknown ones.

Test volumes are excellent, but their Achilles Heel is that they are manly driven by people who voluntarily get tested. Plus those without symptoms may not present unless a close contact.

As I have said since day one my personal view is that NSW Health will contain things quite swiftly. However other outbreaks from it may pop up which NSW will also squash.

NSW Health is clearly concerned. ie Compare the measures rolled out for Northern Beaches vs Crossroads.

The several unknown transmission will make NSW more cautious than if they knew how, when and where the outbreak or outbreaks started.

 

[Lynda2475]

Well Crossroads patient zero was found within 24 hours, also the South Western suburbs have 1000's of roads so not easy to close off, whereas northern beaches is a penisula and much easy to close off and police.

Also note that the vast majority fo people presenting for testing do not have symptoms, in NSW you do not have to have symptoms to be tested. Almost every interview Ive seen people have stated they are there because they have been at casual contact venue or live int he area so doign just to be safe.

If there was massive asymptomatic spread outside the Northern Beaches, we would start seeing some vulnerable people present at hospital.

One can only hope if there are symptomatic people avoiding being tested they are staying home, the sheer volume of cancelled holiday plans has been a timely warning to many.

 

[Lynda2475]

Interesting that Qld is reporting that the super yacht crew from Maldives are not cooperating and not very forthcoming with information re where they have been - maybe time to deport?

A little surprised people can just sail here with the current restrictions. I just assumed that outside of cargo ships, marine leisure arrivals was not allowed, same way as non residents arent allowed to visit via plane. Figured coast guard would intercept non local vessels and turn them back before they were allowed to dock.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well Crossroads patient zero was found within 24 hours, also the South Western suburbs have 1000's of roads so not easy to close off, whereas northern beaches is a penisula and much easy to close off and police.

Also note that the vast majority fo people presenting for testing do not have symptoms, in NSW you do not have to have symptoms to be tested. Almost every interview Ive seen people have stated they are there because they have been at casual contact venue or live int he area so doign just to be safe.

If there was massive asymptomatic spread outside the Northern Beaches, we would start seeing some vulnerable people present at hospital.

One can only hope if there are symptomatic people avoiding being tested they are staying home, the sheer volume of cancelled holiday plans has been a timely warning to many.

I have not stated or implied that there is massive spread. Just that there are reasons for concern and this is what NSW Health is being cautious.

As I have regularly stated I think that NSW Health is doing what it needs to do, and hopefully there are not any growing transmission chains. But I am glad that NSW Health are acting as if there is.

However I do not believe the line of don't worry because the Northern Beaches is a peninsula and so is every to close off. This outbreak has already travelled widely to many location outside of the Nothern Beaches. One of two branches of the Avalon cluster is not in the Northern Beaches

The virus has proven itself the very transmissible.

I am not alarmed by the current NSW outbreak/s and believe they are being managed well. But it is clearly not just a Northern Beaches problem.

 

[DC3]

...I just assumed that outside of cargo ships, marine leisure arrivals was not allowed, same way as non residents arent allowed to visit via plane. Figured coast guard would intercept non local vessels and turn them back before they were allowed to dock.

The Australian Volunteer Coast Guard is more about small boat safety. Otherwise it may fall onto the RAN or Border Force/“Coastwatch” resources.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Interesting that Qld is reporting that the super yacht crew from Maldives are not cooperating and not very forthcoming with information re where they have been - maybe time to deport?

A little surprised people can just sail here with the current restrictions. I just assumed that outside of cargo ships, marine leisure arrivals was not allowed, same way as non residents arent allowed to visit via plane. Figured coast guard would intercept non local vessels and turn them back before they were allowed to dock.

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On arrival into Australian waters they are required give notice and to head to the nearest allowed Port of Entry. They will not always though as may need to seek safe harbour.

They may not have the crew granted permission to enter Australia etc though. Indeed at present most likely not at present. Crew can be refused permission to disembark though. So I would imagine that virtually all arriving yachts would need to sail on after re-provisioning as would not be allowed in.

The yacht could be on the way to somewhere else, or they may have just been hoping that by arriving that they would be granted entry.

Turning back of smaller vessels could not be done as they would need to be refuelled and reprovisioned first as otherwise it could be fatal. Australia is a long way from anywhere and most small vessels cannot make a two way trip with re-provisioning.

Also our coastline is vast and Border Force Vessels few. So they could not intercept all small vessels.

Small vessels also do not have ID transponders and so one yacht is indistinguishable from another when it say appears on radar.

When I am out say yachting in the Whitsundays, where each time I have been internal flagged yachts have always been , you will not know till very close that the yacht is not from Australia,

 

[SydneySwan]

Interesting that Qld is reporting that the super yacht crew from Maldives are not cooperating and not very forthcoming with information re where they have been - maybe time to deport?

Can they be deported if they are Australians (or in terms state premiers understand (Gladys excepted) - Queenslanders, Victorians, South Australians. etc.)?

 

[andye]

No. Just indicating that why there is valid concern. Without known transmission neither you nor NSW Health knows where it could be and NSW Health is very upfront on this. The fact is that it not just Northern Beaches as there are numerous exposure sites outside of the Northern Beaches that are already known. And the mystery cases means that there are most likely other unknown ones.

Test volumes are excellent, but their Achilles Heel is that they are manly driven by people who voluntarily get tested. Plus those without symptoms may not present unless a close contact.

As I have said since day one my personal view is that NSW Health will contain things quite swiftly. However other outbreaks from it may pop up which NSW will also squash.

NSW Health is clearly concerned. ie Compare the measures rolled out for Northern Beaches vs Crossroads.

The several unknown transmission will make NSW more cautious than if they knew how, when and where the outbreak or outbreaks started.

With regards mass testing, this figure in the UK Telegraph is interesting I thought. Note that the Aus and NZ figures would be off the scale (about 389 and 650 along the x-axis)..Missing them off would seem to be an error as without them the graph isn't the most convincing argument


I also agree that there are a lot of asymptomatic Northern Beaches residents getting tested and not just as they have been to 'monitor for symptoms' locations

 

[DC3]

Nice looking yatch. And only $780,000 per weekly charter for those interested.

 

[Lynda2475]

Can they be deported if they are Australians

The passengers may have been Australian assuming that is why they are in hotel Quarantine, but the crew doesnt seem to be, if they wont cooperate, one would think they'd be sent on their way.

 

[DC3]

The passengers may have been Australian assuming that is why they are in hotel Quarantine, but the crew doesnt seem to be, if they wont cooperate, one would think they'd be sent on their way.

Still under investigation:

Police investigating after woman on superyacht arrives in Cairns with COVID-19

A crew member arriving in Cairns on a superyacht chartered for $780,000 a week is one of two people in Queensland testing positive to coronavirus in the past 24 hours, with the superyacht's captain saying he is "fully cooperating" with authorities.

www.abc.net.au

 

[DC3]

Iso passengers may be slumming it at the DoubleTree. Some water views if lucky. Could almost, but not quite, see the Lady E from there.

 

[jase05]

No wonder mankind is doomed

Woman cops COVID fine after collapsing at NSW pizza shop

It turned out to be one of the most expensive meals she will ever order.

7news.com.au

 

[RooFlyer]

Note that the Aus and NZ figures would be off the scale (about 389 and 650 along the x-axis)..Missing them off would seem to be an error as without them the graph isn't the most convincing argument

Australia and NZ's position is noted in the fine print at the bottom

 

[DC3]

No wonder mankind is doomed

Woman cops COVID fine after collapsing at NSW pizza shop

It turned out to be one of the most expensive meals she will ever order.

7news.com.au

As we keep discovering, some see it as too difficult to do the right thing.

 

[Must...Fly!]

No wonder mankind is doomed

Woman cops COVID fine after collapsing at NSW pizza shop

It turned out to be one of the most expensive meals she will ever order.

7news.com.au

I hope the business finds legal recourse to gain costs of deep cleaning and lost revenue from this idiot.

 

[RooFlyer]

The passengers may have been Australian assuming that is why they are in hotel Quarantine, but the crew doesnt seem to be, if they wont cooperate, one would think they'd be sent on their way.

All nationalities will go into hotel quarantine I think. Crew on board for"marine safety", whatever that is, in port.

If the boat came from the Maldives, where was covid caught. Must have been recent, elsemany more on board would have it.