Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

Im asking about all international arrival cases, not just the latest community cases. There were no community cases in Vic or Qld at start of Dec, so im not convinced that genomic testing for hotel cases would have been a priority for them, as they assumed it was contained. Im talking about a link to the earliest Avalon cases, not Vic's new cases this week.

At this stage for latest cases Vic is working on a hypothesis re visits to NSW but have already had an assumption re one individual proven false.

NSW should request genomics for all international arrivals in the 14 days before 11th Dec (exposure date for first NB case) just to be sure, even though long departed US Air Crew remains the most likely source.

 

[love_the_life]

Dr Chant announced that the Vic positive cases were in Eden and Bermagui last 2 days - those people had not been in greater Sydney.

I wonder if Avalon strain has been compared to positive hotel quarantine strains in Qld and Vic? As no definitive source found in Sydneyfor Avalon, it is not unreasonable to check the leak wasnt interstate. At start of Dec was a lot of domestic travel jnto NSW.

A bit of tit for tat the way it sounded in the media - NSW is blamed for Vic outbreak, well Vic has infected NSW now. I know a lot of AFFers are her supporters but I really haven't been keen on GB's handling of the whole thing.

 

[andye]

One picture on the Bass highway out of Burnie from the NW lockdown.
View attachment 237007
.

Has anything like that been seen on the Northern Beaches?Not according to some reports on here.Not seen anything like it in the media either.

My experience of crossing the Narrabeen Bridge last week was nothing like this. There was a police car driving along (guess checking plates) but I didn't see any checkpoints. Heard of some people being pulled over.
The NB people were pretty (but not completely) compliant in my opinion- helped by the season and ordinary weather.
A couple more days of 0 NNB cases would lead to loud calls to end their lockdown sooner than planned

 

[Lynda2475]

I actually thought Dr Chant was very diplomatic when she announced it. IMO Dr Chant has been the most transparent of all the CHO's from the start.

Most in NSW are fans of GB's balancing act of virus management and keeping economy open and taking more international arrivals than all other statesand territories combine.

Other States and Territories may disagree with NSW's approach and that is their prerogative but doesnt given them the right to lecture NSW on what to do in NSW.

Victoria's has had just under 10 times the number of local cases to date and 16 times the deaths, things have only even exceeded the ability to contract trace and manage in one state, Victoria.NSW is managing well. NZ has proved no matter how long the 0 cases streak lasts leaks will happen.

I appreciate GB's pragmatism if you dont that is fine, you dont live or vote here.

 

[andye]

Its interesting how few hospitalisations there have been in Sydney so far. Perhaps a reflection of the healthy (rather than frail) older demographic in Avalon

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Im asking about all international arrival cases, not just the latest community cases. There were no community cases in Vic or Qld at start of Dec, so im not convinced that genomic testing for hotel cases would have been a priority for them, as they assumed it was contained. Im talking about a link to the earliest Avalon cases, not Vic's new cases this week.

At this stage for latest cases Vic is working on a hypothesis re visits to NSW but have already had an assumption re one individual proven false.

NSW should request genomics for all international arrivals in the 14 days before 11th Dec (exposure date for first NB case) just to be sure, even though long departed US Air Crew remains the most likely source.

I know what you are asking about. They check against all.

At this stage for latest cases Vic is working on a hypothesis re visits to NSW but have already had an assumption re one individual proven false.

Interesting use of language by yourself. Yes they are making many investigations including three possible NSW links one of whom has now returned a negative case.

At this stage for latest cases Vic is working on a hypothesis re visits to NSW

I think you will find that they are exploring all possible transmission links, and looking for links to NSW is but one.

And indeed the language used today in the presser was that NSW links was the primary line. ie not the only line.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on genomic sequencing of international returned travellers.

This is done for the pretty obvious reason that if a local outbreak does occur that genomic matching could be done to search for links.

The various CHO's in Australia do not just sit back and wait and do it after the fact.

ie with the Victorian Second Wave all 4 links to international strain were made. One strain being the dominant one.

However not all swabs can generate a viable virus to allow sequencing and so there will always be some gaps. Plus some people such as aircrew may not have been tested, and so that may also might mean that no link can be found. ie The main outbreak in NZ's Second Wave was never linked.

Linking can take time. ie NSW Health has only announced today that all three NSW Clusters are genomically linked.

 

[Lynda2475]

Yes NSW linked Wollongong and Croydon cluster genomically in just under 3 days, and now also have an overlap venue for Croydon and Wollongong, and indication that looks most similar to the CBD cases which were exposed to Northern Beaches.

Dr Chant has referencesd many times late night calls to our labs to prioritise or fast track genomic tests forcertain cases (i.e unlinked over household contacts) and also requesting serology for those cases.

Apparently Vic are turning some returning Vic Residents from NsW away from testing centres cause havent ramped up enough resources after creating a rush to get home by midnight last night to avoid hotel quarantine or being locked out altogether. It should not be difficult to get tested, all states should readily be able to deploy pop up centres to test as needed.

 

[jase05]

Yes NSW linked Wollongong and Croydon cluster genomically in just under 3 days, and now also have an overlap venue for Croydon and Wollongong, and indication that looks most similar to the CBD cases which were exposed to Northern Beaches.

Dr Chant has referencesd many times late night calls to our labs to prioritise or fast track genomic tests forcertain cases (i.e unlinked over household contacts) and also requesting serology for those cases.

Apparently Vic are turning some returning Vic Residents from NsW away from testing centres cause havent ramped up enough resources after creating a rush to get home by midnight last night to avoid hotel quarantine or being locked out altogether. It should not be difficult to get tested, all states should readily be able to deploy pop up centres to test as needed.

Professor Kelly said that he had spoken to Victorian officials and this didn’t seem to be the case

 

[Lynda2475]

Its interesting how few hospitalisations there have been in Sydney so far. Perhaps a reflection of the healthy (rather than frail) older demographic in Avalon

This is reassuring, the swift action in limiting access to age care facilities and strengthening procedures has kept our most vulnerable safe. There was one exposure in one aged care home at Ashfield from Crossroads/Thai Rock which did not result in any residents or other staff members contracting covid, and one in a retirement village in Avalon.

Also no reports of impacted hospital or health workers outside the 2 transport workers.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes NSW linked Wollongong and Croydon cluster genomically in just under 3 days, and now also have an overlap venue for Croydon and Wollongong, and indication that looks most similar to the CBD cases which were exposed to Northern Beaches.

Have you thought about when the first Vic Case was? Late afternoon on 30th Dec. We are not even at 48hrs.

It was stated today that the genomic sequencing report will be available either later today or tomorrow morning. Both would be under 3 days. Possibly within 2 days.




Most neutral commentators seem quite complimentary about the speed of the response in Victoria and the actions taken.

 

[Lynda2475]

Again you are talking about recent local Vic cases and I was asking about international cases at start of Dec, 3-5 weeks ago.

I only pointed out the 3 day turnaround on Croydon as you stated linking can take some time, implying NSW had not given it priority.

 

[love_the_life]

I actually thought Dr Chant was very diplomatic when she announced it. IMO Dr Chant has been the most transparent of all the CHO's from the start.

Most in NSW are fans of GB's balancing act of virus management and keeping economy open and taking more international arrivals than all other statesand territories combine.

Other States and Territories may disagree with NSW's approach and that is their prerogative but doesnt given them the right to lecture NSW on what to do in NSW.

Victoria's has had just under 10 times the number of local cases to date and 16 times the deaths, things have only even exceeded the ability to contract trace and manage in one state, Victoria.NSW is managing well. NZ has proved no matter how long the 0 cases streak lasts leaks will happen.

I appreciate GB's pragmatism if you dont that is fine, you dont live or vote here.

I agree that if you live in NSW you have your own view of the way the premier has handled things so far. That's everyone's choice but I do note however, that there have been many negative comments about the way ViC, QLD and WA for example have and still are managing the situation and most/many of those have been from non residents of those states.
I would not dream of lecturing anyone on their view.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I only pointed out the 3 day turnaround on Croydon as you stated linking can take some time, implying NSW had not given it priority.

I implied no such thing. I pointed it out as it is the normal delay to be expected. Genomic sequencing and matching takes time.

I said Linking can take time. ie NSW Health has only announced today that all three NSW Clusters are genomically linked.

It is a process that takes longer than the positive test result.

 

[N860CR]

I’m guessing after months of whinging they are just dumbfounded and just keep whinging about having achieved flatten the curve (marketed as point 2) and how stupid/incompetent/etc the government is.

Honestly, what a ridiculous statement.

The goal of the country was to “flattern the curve” and this has been achieved. Yet we are seemingly no closer to having our governments deal with this issue. Just look at the mass exodus over the Victorian border last night - you’d think it was Armageddon.

We employ our politicians to set policies and procedures in place yet nearly a year in they still don’t seem to have a plan forward.

I would hardly call it “whinging” when people’s lives are being absolutely destroyed and our policiticans seem to have absolutely no idea what to do to move forward.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Again you are talking about recent local Vic cases and I was asking about international cases at start of Dec, 3-5 weeks ago.

Again all cases are sequenced including international arrivals. It is an ongoing process. They do not only do it after the fact. All states with international arrivals do it (though I must admit I do not know about Tassie, but I would surprised it it had not been done).

For example in Qld recently they reported the new South African strain in an arrival. SA reported the new highly transmissive strain in arrival on Dec 28. NSW had 2 such on Dec 21. Two of the new UK strain have also been found in Vic.

Professor Kelly revealed four cases of the new COVID-19 strain had now been detected in Australia, up from the two reported in New South Wales on Monday.​

​

The other two cases were detected in Victorian hotel quarantine.​

So yes Victoria sequences international arrivals.

Obviously the linking can only be done after each new case is sequenced.

How genomics is being used in Victoria​

Coronavirus is made of RNA, which is a genetic code like DNA. Over time, very small changes happen to this code.

When someone tests positive for coronavirus, a sample of the virus is sent to the Victorian genomics public health laboratory at the Doherty Institute. The laboratory uses the sample to identify the code of the virus from that person. The codes from each sample of coronavirus are then compared to others. This allows us to find which samples have the same, or very similar, strains of the virus. A group of samples with the same or similar strain of coronavirus is known as a genomic cluster.

 

[oznflfan]

Honestly, what an ridiculous statement.

The goal of the country was to “flattern the curve” and this has been achieved. Yet we are seemingly no closer to having our governments deal with this issue. Just look at the mass exodus over the Victorian border last night - you’d think it was Armageddon.

We employ our politicians to set policies and procedures in place yet nearly a year in they still don’t seem to have a plan forward.

I would hardly call it “whinging” when people’s lives are being absolutely destroyed and our policiticans seem to have absolutely no idea what to do to move forward.

They have a plan, just be very very conservative, stuff the economy and peoples movements, and hope for the vaccine to solve our problems.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

, things have only even exceeded the ability to contract trace and manage in one state, Victoria.

In the last outbreak in SA a number of states assisted SA with contact tracing.

At the start of the the current cluster in NSW in the northern beaches with the sudden surge in contact tracing at least Vic was assisting NSW Health with contact tracing. Other states may have been involved. And no this is no this is not a criticism of NSW, it is just sensible.

With the Thebarton Cluster in SA over a thousand people were sent into hotel quarantine in part as contact tracing would not have been able to keep pace. = Good tactic.

You learn as you go along and all states are also helping one another out at present when required, even if individual states do have different ideas and disagreements on what controls/measures to use at times.

Personally from what I can see all states recently have done quite well when new cases have popped up. Yes SA maybe went a bit too extreme early on in their last outbreak, but better that way than way too slow.

 

[Lynda2475]

At the start of the the current cluster in NSW in the northern beaches with the sudden surge in contact tracing at least Vic was assisting NSW Health with contact tracing.

Source please?

It has not been mentioned in any NSW presser I have listened to. And this morning both Dr Chant and GB were asked if they had sufficient contrat tracers, and they confirmed NSW was well staffed and not seeking assistance out of state. Of course NSW and Vic have been trading expsoure details for returned travellers as would be expected.

Vic (and laughably WA) offered to help NSW, but there are no reports that I can find of NSW actually accepting this help.

Contract tracing is best done in state as local kowledge of areas and community is very beneficial, this is why NSW has decentralised health districts, something Vic was looking to adopt as (and may have since moved to) folwoing the severe failures of their centralised system in the Vic 2nd wave.

Its great states can help each other out, but extremely important for states to be able to help themselves because if there are simultaneous outbreaks, states like Qld and WA have stated their facilities are only for their residents.

There are many here in NSW who in the event of Qld needing help, would dearly love to see Gladys repeat back to Anna her own sentinment "NSW hospitals are only for New South Welhman"but again this would never happen because Glady recognises that we are all Australians first, whereas north fo the border you are a Queenslander before you are an Australian.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

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Two new cases of covid have been detected in Victoria. A Victorian government spokesperson has told the ABC the two cases are close contacts of one of the positive cases from the Black Rock restaurant.