Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

And to continue with the media driven numbers game, the leading story on ABC news now (yes, I know it’s a slow Saturday) is the death of a 92 year old in a nursing home. Not saying this isn’t sad for the family, however this doesn’t constitute news that requires national broadcasting and “statements of grief” from politicians.

We had a real problem of people dying prematurely in nursing homes due to poor care (my own grandfather even died after falling down fire stairs that lazy cleaners had been propping open), but nobody seemed to care about that a few months ago.

 

[p--and--t]

And to continue with the media driven numbers game, the leading story on ABC news now (yes, I know it’s a slow Saturday) is the death of a 92 year old in a nursing home. Not saying this isn’t sad for the family, however this doesn’t constitute news that requires national broadcasting and “statements of grief” from politicians.

We had a real problem of people dying prematurely in nursing homes due to poor care (my own grandfather even died after falling down fire stairs that lazy cleaners had been propping open), but nobody seemed to care about that a few months ago.

What do you expect them to do! There were no cats stuck up a tree, Barnaby hasn't made another stupid statement, and the footballers aren't out of bed yet today to explain their drunken brawl last night

 

[RooFlyer]

Just for info:

About half the COVID-19 cases in Australia studied by the CSIRO have been found to be a mutant strain of the virus that may be more contagious.

Labelled an “urgent concern’’ by international researchers, about two-thirds of cases in hard-hit countries have been found to have the mutation.

NSW and Queensland appear to have dodged the worst of the mutation; it has been identified in only about one-third of cases in these states.

However, Victoria and Western Australia are in line with a global trend of having two-thirds of cases with the mutation.

The Weekend Australian can reveal the CSIRO has for weeks been monitoring the spread of the new strain around the nation. The CSIRO identified the strain even before a team of international scientists described the mutation in a major scientific paper.

Possibly not surprising, as i think when we were first entering 'the curve' it was known that there were at least 3 vectors from overseas infection: China, Iran and Italy.

 

[Pushka]

And to continue with the media driven numbers game, the leading story on ABC news now (yes, I know it’s a slow Saturday) is the death of a 92 year old in a nursing home. Not saying this isn’t sad for the family, however this doesn’t constitute news that requires national broadcasting and “statements of grief” from politicians.

We had a real problem of people dying prematurely in nursing homes due to poor care (my own grandfather even died after falling down fire stairs that lazy cleaners had been propping open), but nobody seemed to care about that a few months ago.

I'm sorry to hear about your grandfather.

I agree with your observation. If your house gets burnt down, make sure it happens in a bushfire otherwise it doesn't rate a bleep. Same personal outcome though.

 

[get me outta here]

When I would see Governor Cuomo NY, night after night reporting how many thousands or hundreds of people had died overnight I wondered how many different descriptors he could come up with to tell us how awful it was. He managed it and looked sincerely appalled.

Or, if you are a government wanting to issue bad news and wanting it pretty much overlooked, make it a statement or release to the press on a Friday afternoon. Hardly anybody notices then.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I am still curious about the effect of weather (temperature and temperature variation), not on spread, but on the susceptibility and severity of the health outcomes. Although scientifically trained, I have a big fat zero expertise or training in anything medical related, so would interesting to hear opinions of those with some expertise.

Not medically trained either. But what may be affecting the ability to catch Covid 19, spread it and the health outcomes of becoming infected has many, many variables and so unscrambling them to know what is less or more critical is a very difficult task. Just a few discussion points:

• There was a paper published a while back which showed that spread had been greatest is colder regions (and by cold that is colder than Melbourne's winter)
• Obesity has now been shown to result in poorer outcomes
• Latino and negro populations have worse outcomes in many countries, but how much this is due working in more exposed jobs and coming from poorer backgrounds (with poorer general health) is still be discussed. But the latino connection is interesting also die to Italy and Spain.
• Overwhelmed health systems lead to higher mortality rates, including for health workers ( Factors may vary from being hospitalised too late, lower quality care and probable, higher viral loads within the medical facilities and stressed, not enough PPE, medicines and equipment and tired and overwhelmed staff)
• Density is Covid 19's friend with greatest spread within a country tending to be in very crowded cities and regions. ie New York City (very high population density plus cold climate) and Singapore's migrant workers (very crowded and low quality dorms, but in a hot climate)
• Physical distancing works when practiced. The migrant workers in Singapore were in very crowded dorms where physical distancing was impossible.
• Speed to act is critical. All countries that acted decisively and quickly have had good results even if exact measures varied
• Younger people tend to not be as affected by Covid 19, and transmit it less (quite possibly due to lower viral loads)

So far spread in hot climates with crowded (dense) populations has generally not been as great as one may have feared (Though lack of testing may also be masking actual infections, though should not be hiding all such deaths). However such regions also often have populations who are younger and are not as obese on average. The idea has also been raised that they may also may tend to resist Covid 19 more as they generally also live in conditions that regularly expose their immune systems to many and varied infections.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Despite Victoria having 16,758 tests yesterday (which i think is a new Australian record) not one unknown local transmission case in the stats today which is a good sign for the nation. Though with that volume of tests there may well be a lag in getting all positive results back and looked at and so some of those tests may show as unknown local transmission cases tomorrow.

Since the testing blitz started a week ago about a dozen unknown local transmission cases had been detected. Such cases are more of a concern to me than the known clusters as I have faith in the contact tracing. Victoria prior to the blitz had been testing lower than other states (I assume due to lack of tests, rather than a lack of wishing to test) and so it is reassuring to me that the current blitz is rooting out these unknown local transmission cases.

 

[RooFlyer]

Maybe ... in a few months when test kits are abundant (hopefully) and have a quick, accurate turn around (hopefully), it might be a case of:

* Want to go to [or insert your group gathering here]? Get a test at event day -2 or -1, get a personal code for a clear result sent to the CovidSafe app front page on your phone (you'll have to have used your real name ) and scan that at the gate/reception/etc for entry. Simples.

Getting a swap shoved up your nose will become as common as making reservations on-line.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Maybe ... in a few months when test kits are abundant (hopefully) and have a quick, accurate turn around (hopefully), it might be a case of:

* Want to go to [or insert your group gathering here]? Get a test at event day -2 or -1, get a personal code for a clear result sent to the CovidSafe app front page on your phone (you'll have to have used your real name ) and scan that at the gate/reception/etc for entry. Simples.

Getting a swap shoved up your nose will become as common as making reservations on-line.

Well unfortunately Covid Safe cannot be used as a an entry requirement. The Government has confirmed that.

As while you do say maybe and hopefully unfortunately I think currently:

• that most of the cheap and quick tests only tell you if you have had it, and not if you have it
• that the quick test that tells if you do have it is not (yet) cheap
• that the lab test kit that tells if you have it is more accurate, but you have the lag of need a lab to analyse the swab
• that any negative test to see if you have it may mean may not be correct as it can take a day or two after being infected before the test will work.

Mind you hopefully Twiggies 10 million extra tests will allow us enough community testing to give us the confidence to know that we have no, or virtually no community cases, so that yes we can resume all the group gathering activities that we all love from live theatre, to concerts, to sport etc.

The instant tests will also provide a good idea of what our overall community infection rate is.

 

[RooFlyer]

As while you do say maybe and hopefully unfortunately I think currently:

• that most of the cheap and quick tests only tell you if you have had it, and not if you have it
• that the quick test that tells if you do have it is not (yet) cheap
• that the lab test kit that tells if you have it is more accurate, but you have the lag of need a lab to analyse the swab
• that any negative test to see if you have it may mean may not be correct as it can take a day or two after being infected before the test will work.

Sure, but there would be big money in getting 'quick and reliable' tests - and I think its just a matter of reliably detecting the genetic signature of a VIABLE virus particle, which is a colour discrimination.

I'm optimistic about the motivation of making a motza for some phara company to come up with the goods. Optimism is a good tonic ATM ...

 

[drron]

There is a rapid test for Covid 19 that tests for the virus not antibodies.I had a case that required this rapid test in the last week.It can give a result in 45 minutes.
It isn't in great supply.Our hospital has 50 such kits.
But a patient from the northwest was admitted with definite problems but not Covid symptoms.However when I saw him he complained of a dry cough and a tickle in the throat.He had been placed next to a fellow going to surgery.Infectious diseases agreed he needed to be tested with the rapid test which fortunately was negative.It is said to be quite reliable and does require the nasal swab.

Obviously a little expensive at present but mass production should get the cost down.It was described here.

Rapid coronavirus test now being used in Australia

A rapid coronavirus test is now being used at St Vincent’s Hospital in Sydney allowing patients to receive results within an hour.

www.news.com.au

 

[Pushka]

There is a rapid test for Covid 19 that tests for the virus not antibodies.I had a case that required this rapid test in the last week.It can give a result in 45 minutes.
It isn't in great supply.Our hospital has 50 such kits.
But a patient from the northwest was admitted with definite problems but not Covid symptoms.However when I saw him he complained of a dry cough and a tickle in the throat.He had been placed next to a fellow going to surgery.Infectious diseases agreed he needed to be tested with the rapid test which fortunately was negative.It is said to be quite reliable and does require the nasal swab.

Obviously a little expensive at present but mass production should get the cost down.It was described here.

Rapid coronavirus test now being used in Australia

A rapid coronavirus test is now being used at St Vincent’s Hospital in Sydney allowing patients to receive results within an hour.

www.news.com.au

I think if rapid tests could be made cheaply that more would likely get tested because waiting for the next day for results and isolating from all whilst waiting might stop people from checking up if they weren't all that unwell.

I notice yesterday the death of a lady in that nursing home who was aged 93 from memory. She had recovered from Covid earlier. But her death was put to Covid. At the age of 93 maybe it was just her time? Perhaps she suffered lung issues afterwards but at that age, a slight fall can have the same outcome but the death isn't put to a fall.

 

[drron]

The news report I heard the Deputy CMO for NSW said the death was not being put down to Covid but the family disagreed.

 

[Pushka]

The news report I heard the Deputy CMO for NSW said the death was not being put down to Covid but the family disagreed.

Interesting. I'm thinking/hoping the medical profession are the ones who decide not the family?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The original stated target was 100,000 tests in a 2 week testing blitz in Victoria prior to reactivating..

More than 150,000 Victorians have been tested for COVID-19 as part of a two-week testing blitz, which authorities will use to inform how restrictions will be lifted in the state.

Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said 20 cases were detected as part of the testing drive who were not linked to other known cases.

"These are 20 cases that otherwise potentially would not have been identified in the community through regular screening," she said.

"So I think that's a positive result, that of the very significant number of swabs that have been collected … that to date we've only had about 20 cases that tested positive.

"We know how contagious this virus is and how easily it spreads.

Arrests made at protest against coronavirus restrictions as Victoria's cases rise

Ten people are arrested at a protest against Victoria's coronavirus restrictions after another 10 cases of COVID-19 were recorded overnight. More than 150,000 Victorians have been tested for coronavirus during a two-week testing blitz.

www.abc.net.au

Zero unknown local transmission cases reported today in Victoria.

 

[Flashback]

Interesting. I'm thinking/hoping the medical profession are the ones who decide not the family?

But then how could they pass the story on through the generations of children to come, saying your great grandmother died due to the economic depression causing COVID-19 crisis? Saying she just died of old age doesn't have the same ring to it, no?

 

[Princess Fiona]

But then how could they pass the story on through the generations of children to come, saying your great grandmother died due to the economic depression causing COVID-19 crisis? Saying she just died of old age doesn't have the same ring to it, no?

Interesting. I'm thinking/hoping the medical profession are the ones who decide not the family?

The medical practitioner writing the death certificate establishes the cause of death.
This elderly lady had been cleared of COVID-19, but had been receiving palliative care for the week prior to her death and her great granddaughter has said that the social isolation contributed to her deterioration.
Sad all round for her family whichever way you look at it and under normal circumstances her extended family would have been able to spend a lot more time with her in her last days.
So yes her cause of death not COVID-19 but it undoubtedly had a significant impact on those involved.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Update on Vic Testing.

• 161,000 tests now completed over the last fortnight
• 141,000 have been analysed and of 30 were new community cases that may not have been found without it.
• Another 50,000 tests to be completed in Victoria this week, and another 150,000 by end of May

So in essence another 170,000 tests will be analysed by roughly the end of May. All up 300,000 tests in roughly a month. Note that so far in Australia there has been 827,872 tests since testing began. So 300K in one month in just Victoria is a major ramp up of testing.

The stated key reason for this expanded testing (blitz) was to find how widespread in the community Covid19 is, and to find unknown cases.

Widespread testing of sewerage samples will also now be performed throughout the state to also search for Covid 19. This may identity where active infections are where testing has not yet found anyone, or where loads are such that it may suggest that infections are higher in a cohort than testing has suggested. This is one way of assisting in locating asymptomatic infections.

Victorian contact tracing team is now about 1000 people. This is to be expanded.

PS:

1/ Some things have now been relaxed in Victoria as of midnight Tuesday, but not as much as in other states. 5 visitors to homes, gatherings of 10 outside for sport exercise etc, wedding/funeral limits. Work at Home where possible to stay to end of May. Special provision to allow professional sportspeople to train have been agreed too.

2/ 7 new cases today. But 4 in quarantine from overseas. So really 3 new cases.

 

[tgh]

The Pandemic is dead and buried at Bunnings (Capalaba QLD), it's almost business as usual
There is still a marked corridor to the check out but the watcher is back to just watching ; no more cleaning of the touchscreens and eftpos machine , not even hand sanitiser nearby.

 

[p--and--t]

The Pandemic is dead and buried at Bunnings (Capalaba QLD), it's almost business as usual
There is still a marked corridor to the check out but the watcher is back to just watching ; no more cleaning of the touchscreens and eftpos machine , not even hand sanitiser nearby.

Wow a real disparity across the company.

In a nearby store yesterday there was a staff member at each aisle controlling the number of people who could enter the aisle. Staff members at each floor of the elevator allowing only 2 people into the lift at a time etc etc. Much stronger controls than 2 weeks ago.