Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

For the abattoir "cluster" and inferences this is work related, I think people are forgetting workmates don't just mix at work. They will have bbqs, dinners etc, their kids will play together

Well one would hope that over the last month, or so, when the infections will have been occurring that what you have indicated as happening would not have been.

Vic has been pretty strict on not allowing those activities. Not saying that some people have not, but been generally this does not seem to have been a big problem.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

fully investigate all potential contacts

Well I believe that this applies in all contact tracing endeavours. Plus contacts of close contacts too.


My guess here too is given the possible size of the cluster that they will be even keener to look more broadly.

 

[jakeseven7]

Hopefully though most of the infected will not be in the higher risk categories where outcomes could be poor.

It certainly appears that way with the workers.

It also (pleasingly) seems the media have stopped hyperventilating every time there is a case / cluster reported which is a very positive development! I highly suspect there may well be a coordination of more controlled language happening at our dominant news groups now...

It’s also good that people are becoming less obsessed with the numbers which hopefully means more open to messages around: ok, now listen about what we have to do to get the country going again and this is how you have to behave to make sure we can do that...

It is quite strange to me that here on AFF some are still treating every case notched up as a major development and comparing state v state tally’s like it is an election/sport or something.... It’s circulating people, if your state has had 0 days for X days then great but I would not be reading too much into that.

We need the national psyche to shift from rabid obsession with the numbers (waning thankfully) to: Ok it’s here to stay - what is my role to play in how we manage to live with that and return to generating value in the economy, ASAP.

 

[Pushka]

View attachment 217297

But that was always the original aim - ensure we always had enough ICU beds to treat people.

 

[Pushka]

It is quite strange to me that here on AFF some are still treating every case notched up as a major development and comparing state v state tally’s like it is an election/sport or something.... It’s circulating people, if your state has had 0 days for X days then great but I would not be reading too much into that.

I interpret the lack of positives differently to you.

If it is circulating, and no symptoms being presented, and hence no positives than that too is a good sign as it suggests that the Population is by and large dealing with the outbreak and not requiring urgent attention. Just like the flu. And given your comment about the fact it is circulating but not impacting on health (so not going for testing) it makes our death rate very very low and much lower than currently reported.

For the abattoir "cluster" and inferences this is work related, I think people are forgetting workmates don't just mix at work. They will have bbqs, dinners etc, their kids will play together and their spouses will have jobs /acquaintances etc elsewhere - as per the nursing home.

It would be wrong to just focus on what distancing practices occurs in that workplace and fully investigate all potential contacts as I'm pretty sure they will be doing. It could be made faster, more efficient and less costly if Covid Safe was up and running and widely adopted by that cohort.

And this indeed was relevant with the baggage handlers in Adelaide and the wider Qantas group was impacted so much. eg Next door neighbour works for Qantas, she was quarantined in the batch of 750 and tested - negative - and her brother was a baggage handler and he tested positive and was unwell, and his friend, also a baggage handler was positive and treated in hospital.

Then the wife of the baggage handler who worked in a pharmac_ tested positive, as did one of their teenagers who went to the local High School and who also worked part time after school in a small supermarket.

But each was isolated and it never spread beyond that family and the rest of the handlers.

Initial source at the airport was never discovered.

 

[get me outta here]

I agree, I think the competitive nature of a sort of censure or gloating over a state or territory having a new case today is a bit unfortunate and does not feel cooperative in a fight.

 

[p--and--t]

It also (pleasingly) seems the media have stopped hyperventilating every time there is a case / cluster reported which is a very positive development! I highly suspect there may well be a coordination of more controlled language happening at our dominant news groups now...

Except for that dumb head bald reporter on seven news who went ballistic a couple nights ago over the abattoir. Rude and aggressive.

 

[jakeseven7]

I interpret the lack of positives differently to you.

If it is circulating, and no symptoms being presented, and hence no positives than that too is a good sign as it suggests that the Population is by and large dealing with the outbreak and not requiring urgent attention. Just like the flu. And given your comment about the fact it is circulating but not impacting on health (so not going for testing) it makes our death rate very very low and much lower than currently reported.

Nope, we interpret it the same - It was just obvious so I didn't bother typing it But thanks for typing it for me

 

[N860CR]

Frustrating that we’re still seeing reports like “WA breaks COVID free streak”. Because somebody from overseas in hotel quarantine has it. Proves my point that politicians and the media are playing this as an attention seeking numbers game, rather than providing us with practical data.

On a side note, a few of my nurse friends who were stood down from work have been “redeployed” as testers at a few of the NSW Health drive-through clinics. They’ve reported big lines of people coming in for tests (using it as an activity to get out - that’s how desperate we’ve become!) and it’s a big mix of people generally with no symptoms, so it should be a good gauge as to how active the virus actually is in the community.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I interpret the lack of positives differently to you.

If it is circulating, and no symptoms being presented, and hence no positives than that too is a good sign as it suggests that the Population is by and large dealing with the outbreak and not requiring urgent attention. Just like the flu. And given your comment about the fact it is circulating but not impacting on health (so not going for testing) it makes our death rate very very low and much lower than currently reported.



And this indeed was relevant with the baggage handlers in Adelaide and the wider Qantas group was impacted so much. eg Next door neighbour works for Qantas, she was quarantined in the batch of 750 and tested - negative - and her brother was a baggage handler and he tested positive and was unwell, and his friend, also a baggage handler was positive and treated in hospital.

Then the wife of the baggage handler who worked in a pharmac_ tested positive, as did one of their teenagers who went to the local High School and who also worked part time after school in a small supermarket.

But each was isolated and it never spread beyond that family and the rest of the handlers.

Initial source at the airport was never discovered.

Initial source could have been from anywhere that any of the infected were at, and not just where they worked. Maybe the airport, maybe elsewhere. One patient zero amongst the airport was infected they then due to proximity started infecting others and you then have a cluster.

With Cedar meats it will be likewise. An employee may have brought it in after being infected elswhere, or an outsider may have brought it in giving birth to the cluster.

Normally extended contact is required to infect rather than casual contact. So many clusters like nursing homes are started by employees being infected outside of the workplace.

 

[Pushka]

Initial source could have been from anywhere that any of the infected were at, and not just where they worked. Maybe the airport, maybe elsewhere. One patient zero amongst the airport was infected they then due to proximity started infecting others and you then have a cluster.

With Cedar meats it will be likewise. An employee may have brought it in after being infected elswhere, or an outsider may have brought it in giving birth to the cluster.

Normally extended contact is required to infect rather than casual contact. So many clusters like nursing homes are started by employees being infected outside of the workplace.

I thought the Cedar meats one was interesting, (from an epidemiological point of view,) that the person seemingly to have been identified as patient zero said that they hadn't been at work for the last four weeks. With such a big place there are likely many workers to whom that will apply but the Vic Health won't release to the company the name of Patient Zero due to privacy, so the veracity of the 4 week absence from work cant be confirmed.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I agree, I think the competitive nature of a sort of censure or gloating over a state or territory having a new case today is a bit unfortunate and does not feel cooperative in a fight.

In the end it is pointless just looking at one state and saying we have zero workers" cases and the interstate blockades are not really blockades at all.

Every day "essential workers" fly in and out of states and drive across borders all without testing. And there are actually a lot of people who seemed to have the tag of essential workers who can travel interstate.

That truck driver that drives across the border today may be the partner of a person that shows up today or in a few days as a positive case.


It is good to see that the volume of tests has now really ramped up ( ie nearly 34,000) yesterday as this is flushing out more cases.

Victoria, my home state, was obviously constrained in their number of tests till a week ago when they were averaging only about 2000/2500 a day, but for last week as part of a new blitz have ramped up in a major way and for example yesterday had a new high of 14,430 cases. So it is no real surprise that they are now flushing out more unknown local transmission cases that most likely were being missed before.

 

[p--and--t]

so the veracity of the 4 week absence from work cant be confirmed......

...by you or the general public.

The relevant people handing the tracing will know - just need to pull the roster and paysheets.

 

[Pushka]

...by you or the general public.

The relevant people handing the tracing will know - just need to pull the roster and paysheets.

No, Health won't tell the company the name - that's my point.

news.com.au
9:33 amMay 8, 2020HIGHLIGHT
Confusion over meatworks outbreak

Frank Chung
The owners of the Melbourne abattoir linked to 62 coroanvirus cases say they still don't know the identity of the first worker who tested positive on April 2.
The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services has not provided the employee's name to Cedar Meats or labour hire firm Labour Solutions due to privacy, The Australian reports.

Premier Daniel Andrews said yesterday officials carrying out contact tracing took the man "on face value" when he said he had not attended work for four weeks prior to his diagnosis – but the abattoir owners have been unable to verify that claim

 

[dajop]

Which could actually be a good thing - perhaps meaning our strain is highly transmissible but not highly severe in terms of health outcomes.

I am still curious about the effect of weather (temperature and temperature variation), not on spread, but on the susceptibility and severity of the health outcomes. Although scientifically trained, I have a big fat zero expertise or training in anything medical related, so would interesting to hear opinions of those with some expertise.

I ask this, as I know there is a lot of discussion around the impact of weather and temperature on spread (with the conclusion that spread can happen at all temperature, as we can see in warmer places like Singapore and UAE) - other than cold temperatures meaning more people congregating indoors, therefore spread more likely.

However what is the effect of cold temperature on the immune response? There are several papers suggesting immune response to respiratory illnesses, once contracted, may tend to be be weaker in colder temperatures, but I don't know the veracity of such sources. Speculating that the weather in Australia, so far, as meant those who have contracted the diseases have been in better shape to fight, than those who were inhaling loads of cold air in the northern climes (and maybe why Dan A. is more sh&*@# scared of what may happen than other premiers), and thus struggled to fight the illness. Any thoughts on this?

 

[p--and--t]

No, Health won't tell the company the name - that's my point.

news.com.au
9:33 amMay 8, 2020HIGHLIGHT
Confusion over meatworks outbreak

Frank Chung
The owners of the Melbourne abattoir linked to 62 coroanvirus cases say they still don't know the identity of the first worker who tested positive on April 2.
The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services has not provided the employee's name to Cedar Meats or labour hire firm Labour Solutions due to privacy, The Australian reports.

Premier Daniel Andrews said yesterday officials carrying out contact tracing took the man "on face value" when he said he had not attended work for four weeks prior to his diagnosis – but the abattoir owners have been unable to verify that claim

Maybe they didn't look initially. They don't have to give the company the name to look at the documentation of a whole shift(s) of up to 350 workers to find out what they need to know without telling the owner who it is.

 

[Pushka]

Maybe they didn't look initially. They don't have to give the company the name to look at the documentation of a whole shift(s) of up to 350 workers to find out what they need to know without telling the owner who it is.

Sure but Daniels did state yesterday they took the man's word at face value. Seems a little strange to me but there you go!

 

[drron]

More from Tasmania.A few hours after I posted that the last patient had left ICU another patient was admitted to ICU.That patient transferred to ward today,
But a previously discharged ICU patient was readmitted to ICU,Not a good sign so may be more bad news out of Tassie this weekend,
To add to my sadness it is someone I know.

 

[Himeno]

Frustrating that we’re still seeing reports like “WA breaks COVID free streak”. Because somebody from overseas in hotel quarantine has it. Proves my point that politicians and the media are playing this as an attention seeking numbers game, rather than providing us with practical data.

Same in Canberra with the ACTs 107th case.
Someone who had already had it and recovered prior to arriving back in Australia became sick with a different virus after getting home following the 14 day hotel quarantine. They were tested and both viruses were found.
So someone who wasn't contagious and had already recovered is getting counted as an active case because they had a residual SARS-CoV-2 detection.

 

[N860CR]

Same in Canberra with the ACTs 107th case.
Someone who had already had it and recovered prior to arriving back in Australia became sick with a different virus after getting home following the 14 day hotel quarantine. They were tested and both viruses were found.
So someone who wasn't contagious and had already recovered is getting counted as an active case because they had a residual SARS-CoV-2 detection.

It's as helpful as stating "25,718,140 Australians positive of the common cold!"

Data is meaningless without context.