Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[moa999]

Victorian contact tracing team is now about 1000 people. This is to be expanded.

Thats an awful lot of people given while Vic is currently the most concerning state, it's only averaging 3 cases of unknown contact a day

 

[SydneySwan]

Thats an awful lot of people given while Vic is currently the most concerning state, it's only averaging 3 cases of unknown contact a day

Yes it seems way too many. An acquaintance who works in NSW Health told me the NSW team has around 50 people. I have now sent him an email to see if he meant 500 or if meant 50 in his office but that there were other offices with contact tracing teams. When he first told me 50 I actually thought that that was quite a lot!

 

[OZDUCK]

Yes it seems way too many. An acquaintance who works in NSW Health told me the NSW team has around 50 people. I have now sent him an email to see if he meant 500 or if meant 50 in his office but that there were other offices with contact tracing teams. When he first told me 50 I actually thought that that was quite a lot!

Well the team was apparently 1,000 in April so 3,000 seems quite possible.

'It is a bit like detective work': Meet the contact tracers fighting coronavirus in Australia

Contact tracers are rarely in the spotlight but their role has become vital in slowing the coronavirus pandemic in Australia

www.abc.net.au

 

[Princess Fiona]

Yes it seems way too many. An acquaintance who works in NSW Health told me the NSW team has around 50 people. I have now sent him an email to see if he meant 500 or if meant 50 in his office but that there were other offices with contact tracing teams. When he first told me 50 I actually thought that that was quite a lot!

There were 150 people in NSW Health on contact tracing by the 16th April.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thats an awful lot of people given while Vic is currently the most concerning state, it's only averaging 3 cases of unknown contact a day

Well maybe they are taking the long-term view, and it also depends on how you look at things in terms of how many possible unknown cases that there may be floating around, and in what data can be built up for the epidemiologists to use. The staff may also be looking at things like what caused the transmission and what failures were there if any that led to transmission.

Victoria has had more cases than all states bar NSW, but is also the second most populous state in Australia. On the other hand it had the second highest local transmission rate. When you look at it from a cases per head of population basis 4 other states and territories rates higher than Victoria. and so that 30 cases from 141,000 recent tests flags that there may still be some new CV cases lurking unfound in various parts of Austrlia.

Dan has been rated by some as the most cautious Premier by some re Covid 19. Though Victoria had not been testing as much presumably through lack of test availability rather than lack of desire to test as they are now rolling out 310,000 test in a months. They had been below average in number of tests performed, but have now shot up to be above average.

So with 310,000 tests now in a month and a large contact tracing team, plus the sewerage testing program it is clear that he and Vic Government is now set to root out as may unknown cases as possible if not all. Indeed I think his private goal is complete eradication.

More contact tracers also allows more backtracking and investigation of previous cases. Plus it means chucking a sledge hammer at any new case or outbreak that pops up.

I think the other reason that they want more contact tracers is that when things open up and say travel is opened up to NZ, Pacific Islands and say Business and International Students that the state is in position to jump on any possible outbreak. More contact tracers is probably seen as ultimately allowing them to open up to more things.

I think Dan has flagged that he is very wary of new outbreaks such as South Korea has just had and that is driving him to have the state as CV clean as possibly as the state reactivates.

 

[Pushka]

I think Dan has flagged that he is very wary of new outbreaks such as South Korea has just had and that is driving him to have the state as CV clean as possibly as the state reactivates.

Hope he has a plan B then.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hope he has a plan B then.

I don't follow. What particular need to you believe needs a Plan B for that is not being planned for already?




What measures do you envisage him taking that he has not already put in place?

He has stated that there may be future outbreaks and so has put in place various tools so that the state can jump on any future outbreak including, but not limited to:

• expanded testing
• monitoring sewerage systems to search for existing unknown and future infections
• expanding an already large contact tracing team from 1000 strong to even larger

Plus I know from my brother in law's experience that Vic Police are using number plate tracking to help enforce any self-isolation instructions (ie BIL went to get tested as had flu like symptoms, and on testing was instructed to go home and self-isolate which he did. But he had his partner relocate for the self-isolation and she took his car. Within hours of him having been tested she was pulled up while driving his car and was asked by the police why she was breaking self-isolation. Obviously they quickly sorted out that she was not BIL, but it demonstrated some of what is now occurring behind the scenes).

He is also been reactivating the state on a very slow timetable. The slowest in Australia and way slower than any country in say Europe. Plus the state has already greatly expanded ICU capacity as well as other things such as more ventilators.

 

[Pushka]

I don't follow. What particular need to you believe needs a Plan B for that is not being planned for already?




What measures do you envisage him taking that he has not already put in place?

He has stated that there may be future outbreaks and so has put in place various tools so that the state can jump on any future outbreak including, but not limited to:

• expanded testing
• monitoring sewerage systems to search for existing unknown and future infections
• expanding an already large contact tracing team from 1000 strong to even larger

Plus I know from my brother in law's experience that Vic Police are using number plate tracking to help enforce any self-isolation instructions (ie BIL went to get tested as had flu like symptoms, and on testing was instructed to go home and self-isolate which he did. But he had his partner relocate for the self-isolation and she took his car. Within hours of him having been tested she was pulled up while driving his car and was asked by the police why she was breaking self-isolation. Obviously they quickly sorted out that she was not BIL, but it demonstrated some of what is now occurring behind the scenes).

He is also been reactivating the state on a very slow timetable. The slowest in Australia and way slower than any country in say Europe. Plus the state has already greatly expanded ICU capacity as well as other things such as more ventilators.

Yes, he has everything covered I agree. I just don't think they reacted well to the meat processing plant. Too late. That also likely contributes to SA, WA and Qld continuing to close borders which means we can't effectively work in Melb, assuming we also need to drive there. So it's good stopping everything but when we start to resume anything closer to a "normal" life, will they react properly next time?

There will be more clusters and dealing and managing those better is what Vic Health needs to do, not simply shut down everything because that is what is damaging us now.

 

[jakeseven7]

There will be more clusters and dealing and managing those better is what Vic Health needs to do, not simply shut down everything because that is what is damaging us know.

I actually think the VIC (Cedar), NSW (Ruby/Newmarch) and TAS (NW Coast) health departments now have real life cluster experience and are better for it.

All states have made mistakes, great move on and learn from it - and possibly the states above are going be better equipped to deal with them in the future. I actually worry for my state QLD, I feel we are bumbling along without any real tests yet.

Watching Q&A last night was actually very comforting -they all get that these clusters will continue and now they have lined up their ducks to deal with them, we will just motor on when they keep popping up.

After Q&A felt first sign of optimism for a while and see VIC has made more announcements this AM as well

 

[Pushka]

I actually think the VIC (Cedar), NSW (Ruby/Newmarch) and TAS (NW Coast) health departments now have real life cluster experience and are better for it.

All states have made mistakes, great move on and learn from it - and possibly the states above are going be better equipped to deal with them in the future. I actually worry for my state QLD, I feel we are bumbling along without any real tests yet.

Watching Q&A last night was actually very comforting -they all get that these clusters will continue and now they have lined up their ducks to deal with them, we will just motor on when they keep popping up.

After Q&A felt first sign of optimism for a while and see VIC has made more announcements this AM as well

Yes, and SA has had 2 significant clusters with the baggage handlers with 20 infections within a couple of weeks plus family member involvement. And the Barossa Valley with 16 tourists testing positive and then some local spread including the death of the Barossa Father whose son brought the virus with him from Europe. So a regional lockdown plus an industrial lockdown. The media here kept saying "we can't and won't let another Ruby Princess happen here" The trick is whether lessons have been learnt as a result. I'm not convinced NSW has a great handle on it other.

 

[SydneySwan]

For the first time since early March or maybe even earlier NSW has zero new cases today. Less tests though - just over 6k.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, he has everything covered I agree. I just don't think they reacted well to the meat processing plant. Too late.

Out of interest what should have the Victorian Government done differently?

Now no one likes a cluster, but was not the key problem that the first worker who returned a positive test in early April lied about having been to work? This cost 3 weeks.

The cluster was not discovered till after a second worker was tested on April 23. Once the test came back positive Cedar Meats was officially told on April 27. It is not unusual for results to take several days to be known. All workers were then tested by 1 May.

The Labour Hire firm that the workers worked through rang Cedar Meats late on April 24 that a worker may have had a positive result.

So yes I can understand the logic that Cedar Meats could have acted 3 days earlier than they did. But the key problem really seems to be almost 3 weeks was lost due the first tested worker not being honest about their working.

The main criticism in terms of government (or rather the health department) would appear to be that they initially relied on the Labour Hire Firm to notify any firm that obtained its workers through it. Is this reasonable or unreasonable? Even if judged unreasonable :

• At best it would seem to have saved 3 days (some of the 3 days would not have been available as test results often take 1 to 3 days to be known)
• The cluster would still have been a cluster as it had been growing since at least 2nd April (and quite possibly from earlier as that first person tested may not have been patient zero at Cedar Meats.
• Would it not be the Health Department/contact tracers at fault rather than the actual Victorian Government?

From the second worker on actions have been pretty speedy. Contact tracing and testing widespread.

 

[Pushka]

Out of interest what should have the Victorian Government done differently?

Now no one likes a cluster, but was not the key problem that the first worker who returned a positive test in early April lied about having been to work? This cost 3 weeks.

I understand that the Company was never contacted by Vic Health to ascertain whether or not the story was correct. All they needed to ask for was a list of workers who had attended in the relevant weeks. They would not have breached any privacy issues had they asked for all workers details. Similar issues seemed to be at the foundation of the Nursing Home in NSW; however at least that worker, while not recognising the symptoms, was at least honest.

Are you suggesting that the tracers are not part of Vic Health?

 

[Antoallison]

Shame just saw this on ABC News Perth.
Just when I was getting to really like those “ 0 “ new Covid cases in WA.

No information yet on what type of role the man had at the hotel to have close contact for the transmission.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I understand that the Company was never contacted by Vic Health to ascertain whether or not the story was correct. All they needed to ask for was a list of workers who had attended in the relevant weeks.

Why would they have done that when the initial worker advised that he had not been at work in the two weeks prior? You would expect the contact tracers to act on what they are told.

Or are you only talking about the second worker when at most only a day or two was lost, and that due to the previous 3 weeks lost that the cluster was already well and truly formed.

They would not have breached any privacy issues had they asked for all workers details. Similar issues seemed to be at the foundation of the Nursing Home in NSW; however at least that worker, while not recognising the symptoms, was at least honest.

Again I believe the initial worker was at fault and not Vic Health. I think it unreasonable for contact tracers to be expected trace for every possible lie they are told.

I think the two clusters are quite different. A lot of the questions with the nursing home more late to how the cluster was managed with the resident on sites.

The nub of the Cedar Meats Cluster was that the contact tracers did not know that they had been lied to.

Are you suggesting that the tracers are not part of Vic Health?

No, I thought that you were saying that the Vic Government itself was at fault,

 

[drron]

One of the lessons we can learn from the Taiwan experience is that the tracers don't just accept the person's story but check up on it.So if you test positive for Covid they get your phone's GPS tracking history plus your CC activity.
Now some would say that it is an invasion of privacy.But when you have a notifiable disease present laws already require a report for Government.Your phone provider and CC provider already have that information and certainly on sell it so why shouldn't the government be able to access it during a pandemic.

They also use the GPS tracking on your phone if you are in isolation..If it is seen you are moving the police are notified and you get a visit.But don't just think you can leave your phone at your place of isolation as random phone calls every day and if you don't answer you will be met by police on your return.Punishment is a fine of up to $US10000 plus a sentence of up to 1 year.I think most people would think twice about sneaking out to get a pizza or visit your friend.

 

[Pushka]

One of the lessons we can learn from the Taiwan experience is that the tracers don't just accept the person's story but check up on it.So if you test positive for Covid they get your phone's GPS tracking history plus your CC activity.
Now some would say that it is an invasion of privacy.But when you have a notifiable disease present laws already require a report for Government.Your phone provider and CC provider already have that information and certainly on sell it so why shouldn't the government be able to access it during a pandemic.

They also use the GPS tracking on your phone if you are in isolation..If it is seen you are moving the police are notified and you get a visit.But don't just think you can leave your phone at your place of isolation as random phone calls every day and if you don't answer you will be met by police on your return.Punishment is a fine of up to $US10000 plus a sentence of up to 1 year.I think most people would think twice about sneaking out to get a pizza or visit your friend.

And the reason why Hotel isolation was put into operation was because some chose to ignore the honesty required. I'd rather have hoped that further checking of anyone's history would have been conducted. I think their assumptions made for a poor choice.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One of the lessons we can learn from the Taiwan experience is that the tracers don't just accept the person's story but check up on it.So if you test positive for Covid they get your phone's GPS tracking history plus your CC activity.
Now some would say that it is an invasion of privacy.But when you have a notifiable disease present laws already require a report for Government.Your phone provider and CC provider already have that information and certainly on sell it so why shouldn't the government be able to access it during a pandemic.

They also use the GPS tracking on your phone if you are in isolation..If it is seen you are moving the police are notified and you get a visit.But don't just think you can leave your phone at your place of isolation as random phone calls every day and if you don't answer you will be met by police on your return.Punishment is a fine of up to $US10000 plus a sentence of up to 1 year.I think most people would think twice about sneaking out to get a pizza or visit your friend.

Yes in Tawain that has been done. In Australia while those tools would be nice for the contact tracers do not at present, and the way our society works we cannot use them. Even if the the government tried to push it through no doubt there would be many lawyers seeking to halt or overturn it. The emphasis in Australia has mainly been about getting people to voluntarily comply. In the main this is the type of society that I prefer to live in.

But yes where the result has not been good enough firmer measures have been adopted. ie Quarantine for returning international arrivals over self-isolation as what to many were not self-isolating.

They are using what technology that they are allowed to use though. For example scanning of car registrations to see if the someone who is meant to be at home self-isolating is out and about driving.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'd rather have hoped that further checking of anyone's history would have been conducted.

And do you know that what he said was not checked in any way, or are you just assuming it was so?

ie Maybe if he lived with others, when they were questioned as all close contacts would be maybe they gave supporting answers?

I think their assumptions made for a poor choice.

What assumption? They were lied to. An assumption would be say, oh he is at home he is not working.

Are contact tracers to be expected to treat everything that they are told be be a lie and to investigate every possible scenario?

My assumption based on what I have read is that he would have been asked to list everyone he had been in contact with for the previous fortnight, and that he would also have been asked other questions such as had he been at work in the last two weeks.

I would also assume that they would have had a checklist or survey questions that he would have been asked to complete.

Now yes common sense and fact checking would come into play, but if one is given bald faced lies there is only so much you can do. Maybe this is one reason why Dan Andrews has indicated that they will be hiring even more contact tracers (ie so they can check for lies more thoroughly).

 

[drron]

Well they did assume he told the truth.I would also have thought they should have contacted his work to check that story of non attendance particularly as meatworks OS have had some horrendous clusters.