Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Gremlin]

There is a huge disparity in what Covid 19 has meant for individuals and individual businesses.

Some have made more money than ever, some less, and some almost nothing. Many have basically not had much economic impact at all. However others have lost jobs, some their business and some are just limping along. Some are about to go under.

Some have had illness or death in their family unit, or other trauma such as not being able to return to Australia.

For some the pandemic has just been inconvenient such as working from home, having to wear a mask, or not enjoying the luxury of travel for leisure, or not getting to watch sport at the event etc. For others the pandemic has been a most worrying and/or dire time.

I'm a small business owner. From a work perspective, I've not had a dollar of revenue since March last year. And yet, by some stupid quirk, I've also not been eligible for JobKeeper. Still had expenses, but... *sigh*

EDITED TO ADD: I don't really need sympathy. I've a roof over my head, there's enough buffer that bills will be paid and my family and I are healthy and safe (at least my immediate family in Australia). It's not all about when we next get to holiday in Bali or ski in Whistler, that's all...

 

[Lynda2475]

The obvious answer is 100% of the cases that would have got through if border closures/quarantine were not in place

Flawed logic.

There were only a small number of positive cases from the time the border closed and no evidence that any of those positives intended to travel interstate, yet there were millions locked out, and over 10 thousand Victorians prevented form returning home for week (still many locked out for having driven throug coughberland LGA).

Vic were unable to identify a NSW resident that reintroduced Covid to Victoria, their best hypothesis was a returned Victorian. Just like when AP slammed the border shut last winter, it was because 2 queensanders lied on their border declaration about being in Melbourne (only transited SYD) yet all of NSW was locked out.

There has never been significant spread from Sydney to Reional NSW.

Except for NB which was locked down, no other area of NSW had sufficient cases to be flagged as a hotspot, so locking out the whole of greater Sydney (and the state in some cases) was not necessary.

 

[jase05]

I expect the Feds to ignore Annastasia.

I don’t.
With a Federal election looming and with QLD having a massive say in the results I can see him lending a hand to Anna.
Could be a very useful stick, ie I’ll give you assistance on the proviso you keep borders open

Post automatically merged: Jan 28, 2021

Flawed logic.

There were only a small number of positive cases from the time the border closed and no evidence that any of those positives intended to travel interstate, yet there were millions locked out, and over 10 thousand Victorians prevented form returning home for week (still many locked out for having driven throug coughberland LGA).

Vic were unable to identify a NSW resident that reintroduced Covid to Victoria, their best hypothesis was a returned Victorian. Just like when AP slammed the border shut last winter, it was because 2 queensanders lied on their border declaration about being in Melbourne (only transited SYD) yet all of NSW was locked out.

There has never been significant spread from Sydney to Reional NSW.

Except for NB which was locked down, no other area of NSW had sufficient cases to be flagged as a hotspot, so locking out the whole of greater Sydney (and the state in some cases) was not necessary.

NSW has done an amazing job but let’s not pretend they haven’t stuffed up royally like others

 

[james4321]

Your assertion is invalid. The international gaps could have been well filled with a captive domestic market of Australians who, prevented from international travel would have substituted domestic travel to Queensland instead of elsewhere but were prevented from doing so by border closures.

There must be no Queensland specific package after what happened in 2020. Scomo would have a riot on his hands from the NSW Members of his party. Any package must require National Cabinet to agree to domestic border closures by consensus. If a state won’t agree then they can’t be eligible for any assistance program.

I expect the Feds to ignore Annastasia.

You are kidding right? Do you seriously think that Australia does not need International tourists here - that the gaps can be filled with domestic tourism? All year round? Wow

 

[Lynda2475]

Do you seriously think that Australia does not need International tourists here - that the gaps can be filled with domestic tourism? All year round? Wow

No one said inetrnational tourists arent needed, but a significant portion of the gap could have been filled by much higher than usual domestic tourism because they didnt have to compete with overseas destinations for 80% of 2020 - it was a captive audience.

And whilst the peak for traditional domestic tourism is school holidays, dont be fooled there is also a significant market for people like mysef who do everything they can to avoid having to take vacation during school holidays.

What made the downturn bigger than it needed to be was locking out the two biggest doemstic markets NSW and Vic for most of the year. And all the uncertainty of inconsitently applied restrictions and no transparency on decision making re the exact triggers for closing and openung borders.

2020 was a huge opportunity lost, a chancce to show case domestic offerigs to those who would normally not consider a domestic holiday. People were so eager to kave their lounge rooms after being forced to WFH, they would have happily holidayed in FNQ last winter had they been welcome.

Some of the offerings would need to change, Aussies dont want to pat a kangaroo or take a photo with a koala, but just as keen to go snorkeling or dving to kataking or sailing. Operators would need to show value, as Aussies are not the soft targets like some overseas tourists wrt some premium experiences but there was much potential lost.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Flawed logic.

There were only a small number of positive cases from the time the border closed and no evidence that any of those positives intended to travel interstate, yet there were millions locked out, and over 10 thousand Victorians prevented form returning home for week (still many locked out for having driven throug coughberland LGA).

Vic were unable to identify a NSW resident that reintroduced Covid to Victoria, their best hypothesis was a returned Victorian. Just like when AP slammed the border shut last winter, it was because 2 queensanders lied on their border declaration about being in Melbourne (only transited SYD) yet all of NSW was locked out.

There has never been significant spread from Sydney to Reional NSW.

Except for NB which was locked down, no other area of NSW had sufficient cases to be flagged as a hotspot, so locking out the whole of greater Sydney (and the state in some cases) was not necessary.

Well my point for December/January closures/quarantine when the best processes to date are implemented is that it seems no cases (and probably no contacts) got stopped as a result of closures/quarantine.

No cases appeared in mandatory domestic quarantine of travellers from NSW after the siren was sounded. No cases / contacts likely to be found in exemption applicants if anyone bothered to look.

Please lets take State parochialist language out of discussion and keep the temperature down. Events around July/Winter are now less relevant because our processes have improved.

If I remember correctly, the only positive case crossing the border was one member of family returning home before the border closed. They were isolating in line with the Avalon restrictions, so I think this is under the operation of how the 2 ring method would operate. Developed symptoms after crossing the border perhaps. Were there any cases that wouldn’t have been stopped by 2 rings but caught by borders?

Give credit - 2 rings seem to work. So if everyone trusts the two ring method and everyone adopts it, then no more border closures are needed, even for a hotspot.

People at risk for getting infected because of contact or visiting venues at the wrong time get isolated (with appropriate recompense) and the rest of Australia can carry on. Lol.

 

[N860CR]

There has never been significant spread from Sydney to Reional NSW.

And this is the real evidence that border closures are largely a farce.

Three quarters of white people in Sydney have been to Byron bay at some point over the last 6 months and mixed with people from Queensland. It’s a place I’d never really wanted to visit, but I’ve been three times to legally catch up with friends and family from Brisbane (and I’m not the only one getting around border closures by doing that). Not a single case has been introduced via this largely uncontrolled mixing of dirty southern people with clean northern people.

 

[Lynda2475]

No cases appeared in mandatory domestic quarantine of travellers from NSW after the siren was sounded. No cases / contacts likely to be found in exemption applicants if anyone bothered to look.

I didnt dispute this.

But I also think full two rings is over kill (especially when communiyty numbers are low and contrat tracing is not overwhelmed). Lock out close contacts based on exposure sites, and their household members - the majority of spread beyond the exposure site has been in households. Signifiant workplace spread only seems to have only been a problem when Melbourne was out of control.

Locking out casual contacts is overkill, and forcing visitors to have 3 covid tests over a 15 day period just because they come from a state where there have been a handful of cases but where they have not been to an exposure site is also overkill.

All NSW outbreaks from time of Corssroads have been shutdown within a month, 2 rings havent been needed nor has locking down the whole city. NSW approach works whilst keeping most things open.

 

[Lynda2475]

but I’ve been three times

I also never had an interest in Byron, but have been twice in the last 5 months, because I could reliably book a holiday there, without worry that Id have to cancel unless i was actually at an exposure site (low likelihood given my usual movements and mask usage).

And both times I had a great visist and would now consider it again for future trips. Had I been able to go to Port Douglas back in August I never would have gone to Byron, had I been able to go to Hawaii in Dec/Jan I never would have gone a second time.

Funny thing was Brisbane based frends were going to come and visit me in Byron early Jan, but they ended up being the ones in lockdown.

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH reports:

Queensland detects viral fragments at three new wastewater test sites​

There have been three more positive wastewater tests in southeast Queensland, Queensland Health has announced.

The positive tests were detected at Coombabah on the Gold Coast, Sandgate on Brisbane’s bayside and Capalaba southeast of Brisbane.

They were from samples taken at wastewater treatment sites at those locations last week.

Queensland Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said in a statement that the detection of viral fragments in wastewater at those sites does not mean there are new cases, but authorities treat the results with “absolute caution.”

“A positive sewage result means that someone who has been infected was shedding the virus. Infected people can shed viral fragments and that shedding can happen for several weeks after the person is no longer infectious,” Dr Young said.

“I am urging anyone who feels unwell and has any symptoms of COVID-19, no matter how mild, to get tested and isolate.”

Thursday’s results are the latest in a sharp uptick in recent positive wastewater results across Queensland, however experts say rather than a cause for alarm, residents should be reassured the system is working as intended.

 

[jakeseven7]

But I also think full two rings is over kill (especially when communiyty numbers are low and contrat tracing is not overwhelmed). Lock out close contacts based on exposure sites, and their household members - the majority of spread beyond the exposure site has been in households.

It doesn't really matter though what random people like you and I think, most state CHO's don't think it is overkill and it has proven to bust clusters very quickly, erasing some of the long tails that splutter on without it.

So if it gives states the confidence to keep borders open to other states by everyone just agreeing to do it, there is minimal harm (or certainly less than this game of open, shut them borders) in making that a standard national approach....

 

[jakeseven7]

I also never had an interest in Byron, but have been twice in the last 5 months, because I could reliably book a holiday there, without worry that Id have to cancel unless i was actually at an exposure site (low likelihood given my usual movements and mask usage).

Slightly OT, I'm a little surprised QF hasn't launched a MEL-Byron service yet after the raging success of SYD-Byron.... Only Jetstar services from the Paris of the South to Byron! I'm sure there would be a market for a 4-7 a week service....

 

[Gremlin]

The downside of 2 ring is that it relies on sufficient testing to capture chains early. By the time the Avalon cluster was discovered, it was already too big to contact trace two rings out. Tracing in NSW may be very good, but it's only as good as testing will allow. And testing is NSW's Achilles Heel.

From what I understand, the Berala cluster could've been constrained faster with 2 rings.

 

[Lynda2475]

most state CHO's don't think it is overkill

Only Victoria has used it. Qld and SA locked down whole area, so exceeded 2 rings. Not sure that is a majority.

NSW CHO and Fed CMO do not deem it necessary.

 

[Lynda2475]

The downside of 2 ring is that it relies on sufficient testing to capture chains early. By the time the Avalon cluster was discovered, it was already too big to contact trace two rings out. Tracing in NSW may be very good, but it's only as good as testing will allow. And testing is NSW's Achilles Heel.

Northern Beaches has had the highest testing rate of any LGA any where in Australia. NB came out en masse to be tested (over 70k on one day). It is your assumption not published fact that they couldnt contact everyone - if NSW contract tracers were overwhelemd they would have put call out for assistance, they didnt, it wasnt needed - QR codes enable NSW health to automate notifications.

The challenge with testing in NSW has always been the South West and Western suburbs - very different demographic.

 

[james4321]

No one said inetrnational tourists arent needed, but a significant portion of the gap could have been filled by much higher than usual domestic tourism because they didnt have to compete with overseas destinations for 80% of 2020 - it was a captive audience.

And whilst the peak for traditional domestic tourism is school holidays, dont be fooled there is also a significant market for people like mysef who do everything they can to avoid having to take vacation during school holidays.

Tourism Australia statistics for the year ended 31 December 2019 reported 9,465,780 International Tourist arrivals. There needs to be an awful lot of you to fill the gap.

 

[Pushka]

Tourism Australia statistics for the year ended 31 December 2019 reported 9,465,780 International Tourist arrivals. There needs to be an awful lot of you to fill the gap.

And likely we won't spend as much either so $ spend down.

 

[jakeseven7]

Only Victoria has used it. Qld and SA locked down whole area, so exceeded 2 rings. Not sure that is a majority.

NSW CHO and Fed CMO do not deem it necessary.

QLD and SA have both used it....

But like I said before, you are missing the point, there is no point debating the efficacy of it (or not) its about confidence that it brings....

 

[Gremlin]

Northern Beaches has had the highest testing rate of any LGA any where in Australia. NB came out en masse to be tested (over 70k on one day). It is your assumption not published fact that they couldnt contact everyone - if NSW contract tracers were overwhelemd they would have put call out for assistance, they didnt, it wasnt needed - QR codes enable NSW health to automate notifications.

The challenge with testing in NSW has always been the South West and Western suburbs - very different demographic.

It's the feedback I was given by my mate in NSW Health, who is actively involved in how they manage contact tracing that 2 ring wasn't feasible for Avalon. But you do you.

Also, testing rates spiked once the virus was already circulating. At that point, it was already too late for 2 ring. Not that 2 ring was (or is) NSW's policy, which is entirely the point.

But yes, I agree with you re South West and Western suburbs.

 

[Gremlin]

QLD and SA have both used it....

But like I said before, you are missing the point, there is no point debating the efficacy of it (or not) its about confidence that it brings....

Qld locked down Greater Brisbane for three days, but locked down two rings of contacts for 2 weeks.

Agree with it being what various states are looking for to deliver confidence that appropriate containment measures are being acted on.