Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

ts about confidence that it brings

I think this approach would erode confidence in NSW, where we havent needed to use it. I hope Dr Chant doesnt cave to Vic pressure.

 

[dajop]

Tourism Australia statistics for the year ended 31 December 2019 reported 9,465,780 International Tourist arrivals. There needs to be an awful lot of you to fill the gap.

International “tourist” arrivals or international (short term) “visitor” arrivals? There’s a difference as there’s a significant VFR market as well. If it is “visitors” then make it 9,465,772 as I came to visit relatives 8 times and didn’t really do any “touristy” stuff. ;-)

 

[Lynda2475]

Tourism Australia statistics for the year ended 31 December 2019 reported 9,465,780 International Tourist arrivals

And in a normal year 9.5 million Aussies also travel overseas (last year its would have been much much lower).

Whilst it is true than in normal years Aussies spend less on domestic experiences than internationals do, if ever there was a year to spend at home it was last year because there werent alternatives, and there arent realistically international options this year either.

The majority of international flights are on foreign airlines, sending money overseas. Whereas when resticted to domestic flights the money goes to locally operated companies. People can saty longer domestrically, because they dont lose 2 days in flying time and have to adjust for jet lag. No need for travel insurance and visa which frees up funds for more activities.

Aussies might not buy as many helicopter flights as CHinese tourists, but they will also spend more on dining out than a back packer would. Swings and round abouts, the dmestic border closures made things so much harder than they neded to be for Australian torism industry.

 

[Gremlin]

I think this approach would erode confidence in NSW, where we havent needed to use it. I hope Dr Chant doesnt cave to Vic pressure.

I'm sure all the Sydney cafe owners who continue to be the only ones in Australia who are capacity restricted to 1 per 4 sqm are glad that confidence hasn't been eroded. It's only been their customer base and profit margins that are eroded instead. Good times for all!

 

[Lynda2475]

I'm sure all the Sydney cafe owners who continue to be the only ones in Australia who are capacity restricted to 1 per 4 sqm are glad that confidence hasn't been eroded. It's only been their customer base and profit margins that are eroded instead. Good times for all!

Most suburban cafe owners have been busier than ever, with most people WFH they have seen huge jump in their weekday takeaway, delivery and lunch time dine in business, instead of only being super busy on weekends.

The cafes struggling are those in CBD areas where usual business is office workers, the decline is not due to 4sqm rule but rather the fact many office workers are still choosing to WFH.

The 4sqm rule was only reinstated just before xmas (it was at 2 sqm for months before that, when Vic cafes werent even allowed to do any dine in) and will revert back to 2sqm in two under 2 weeks time.

Anyway, out fo context as I was talking about the confidence to travel interstate - the 2 rings puts thousands into lockdown for vague reasons, whereas if the Commonwealth health advice is followed those thousands would all be allowed to travel freely.

It is not healthy for Victroia's paranoia to be gaining traction in other states and making everyone's lives much harder than they need to be. Iso should only ever be retrospective for close conatcts.

 

[RooFlyer]

In the press conference that is on now, AP whinging for job keeper to be extended fpr FNQ, not taking any responsiblity that she was the one who killed domestic tourism over winter and Xmas by premature then prolonged border closures.

The utter gall of the Premier. Slams the border at the drop of the hat, says "Queensland hospitals are for Queenslanders", strangles her tourism operators, then wants the Federal taxpayer to subsidise those operators even more.

But its not the domestic tourism operators that are hurting the most, its the ones who rely predominantly on International tourists - and they will need support for probably all of 2021. So rather than just a "whinge" her call is a valid and necessary one in support for those businesses. And of course that is applicable Australia wide not just for QLD.

Yes, there are some sub-sectors that have more international tourists than others, but increased domestic tourism (or intra-state tourism) has filled a fair chunk of that in most states. Tasmania doesn't get the internationals in anywhere near the numbers of QLD, NSW or VIC, but they are big spenders and have been missed. Yet you don't hear our Premier begging for more federal subsidies (or not that I've noticed lately, anyway). Tas too has had a conservative border policy but has managed not to get into juvenile spats with other Premiers.

You are kidding right? Do you seriously think that Australia does not need International tourists here - that the gaps can be filled with domestic tourism? All year round? Wow

Domestics can fill many of the gaps, but you have to allow interstate domestics to come and go with some confidence, don't you? The point is the QLD Premier is asking for federal funds to cover the impact on her tourism sector AFTER strangling the opportunity for interstate tourists to be able to help fill some of the gap caused by international absentees (except film crews, of course ). I hope the Feds will say "Yer joking! The Queensland Premier is free to subsidise her tourism sector out of Queensland taxpayer's funds, if she likes"

 

[RooFlyer]

Pssst. No new cases in the community nationally, today.

 

[jakeseven7]

Pssst. No new cases in the community nationally, today.

Hopefully no rabid South African mutant infected Kiwis who snuck in before the bubble popped are roaming around merrily spreading the new strain!

 

[NM]

Flawed logic.

No flaw in my logic. No infections have been reported as crossing the border while the border closure restrictions were in place in Dec/Jan, so therefore it is quite logical to assert that the restrictions stopped 100% of whatever the number would have been if the border closure/restrictions were not in place. 100% of zero is still zero.

 

[Lynda2475]

restrictions stopped 100% of whatever the number would have been if the border closure/restrictions were not in place

What is debateable is whether this number would have been anything of statistical significance, given that when the borders were open there were no proven cases of NSW residents bringing covid to Victoria or Queensland.

The economic and psycological harm caused by closing the borders was signifiantly higher than the probablity of being unable to control any cases that might occur, unless of course you dont trust Vics ability to contain cases.

 

[Pushka]

No flaw in my logic. No infections have been reported as crossing the border while the border closure restrictions were in place in Dec/Jan, so therefore it is quite logical to assert that the restrictions stopped 100% of whatever the number would have been if the border closure/restrictions were not in place. 100% of zero is still zero.

We experienced one of our largest clusters in Adelaide with crossing of the Victorian border during restrictions. Back in September maybe. He was an exempted person but still sprinkled his fairy dust and resulted in around 90 people being put into hotel quarantine and another 1200 in self isolation and closed down a secondary college. I think maybe around 15 infections?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well my point for December/January closures/quarantine when the best processes to date are implemented is that it seems no cases (and probably no contacts) got stopped as a result of closures/quarantine.

No cases appeared in mandatory domestic quarantine of travellers from NSW after the siren was sounded. No cases / contacts likely to be found in exemption applicants if anyone bothered to look.

Please lets take State parochialist language out of discussion and keep the temperature down. Events around July/Winter are now less relevant because our processes have improved.

If I remember correctly, the only positive case crossing the border was one member of family returning home before the border closed. They were isolating in line with the Avalon restrictions, so I think this is under the operation of how the 2 ring method would operate. Developed symptoms after crossing the border perhaps. Were there any cases that wouldn’t have been stopped by 2 rings but caught by borders?

Give credit - 2 rings seem to work. So if everyone trusts the two ring method and everyone adopts it, then no more border closures are needed, even for a hotspot.

People at risk for getting infected because of contact or visiting venues at the wrong time get isolated (with appropriate recompense) and the rest of Australia can carry on. Lol.

Yes the actual source of the Black Rock Cluster remains unknown. Many avenues were explored. Patient 0 is unknown. Completely from anything I have read..

The only things that are known that is that is gnomically link to the Avalon strain, and that the strain is a close cousin of pax that have flown into SYD from the USA., and that it first emerged in Vic at the Smile Buffalo well after the first case of the strain in NSW.

That Avalon strain then kept popping up elsewhere via multiple unknown transmission chains remained active. Including with the transmission to Victoria.


Whether it was a Victorian, a international backpacker fleeing the Northern Beaches, aircrew someone from NSW is basically irrelevant. The virus does not care where someone lives, it just likes another human host to jump to. So through various transmission chains the Avalon Strain was spread far and wide including on a plane to Qld. The Berala cluster likewise kept popping up.

Another thing that is known, is that the two ring containment work very well. Since it has been deployed in multiple states it has only taken only 1 to 2 weeks to snuff out each new out break from first case. Black Rock 7 days despite it being peak travel and holiday season wit cases that had been spread from west of Geelong up to Bermagui. It works very well as it gets in front of the virus so that you are preventing virus transmission. That second ring is vital in doing this.

So in the scheme of things a relative to the rest of the population get isolation. But that means the vast majority of the population benefits from quicker resolution of the outbreak.

There is a good argument that if NSW had of used it with the recent multiple clusters in NSW that the Border restrictions would have been removed some time ago rather than just now.

The two ring method works irrespective of where anyone resides. It chops off the transmission chains more rapidly than where it is not used.

Now NSW Health can choose to not use it, but the price is maintaining the outbreak/s for longer than if it was deployed.


And while "demographics" can have higher potential Ro's, the mutiple EPIC Clusters that made up the North-metro region community outbreak demonstrated that the second ring method still quickly works in such a demographic (42 cases over 10 days).

 

[Lynda2475]

the mutiple EPIC Clusters that made up the North-metro region community outbreak demonstrated that the second ring method still quickly works in such a demographic (42 cases over 10 days).

So even with 2nd ring Vic cases were higher than Berala which has had 28 cases over 21 days. Of those 9 were from the bottle shop and 5 at social gatherings (which the Driver patient zero attended), 1 non-household setting and 13 household contacts. So in the Berala cluster 2nd ring would have prevented exactly 1 case (the non-household setting).

The Inner West cluster had 10 cases resolved in under 2 weeks again all but one of these (wollongong restuarnat) was at household/private family gathering so again 2nd ring would not have made a signifdicant difference.

Argument may only work for Northern Beaches, even so lock down of 1 LGA resolved that cluster in 4 weeks, not the months that Melbourne second wave took.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It doesn't really matter though what random people like you and I think, most state CHO's don't think it is overkill and it has proven to bust clusters very quickly, erasing some of the long tails that splutter on without it.

So if it gives states the confidence to keep borders open to other states by everyone just agreeing to do it, there is minimal harm (or certainly less than this game of open, shut them borders) in making that a standard national approach....

Yes, that was part of my point. NSW moves to two-ring (and perhaps masks when an 30+ hotspot happens) and other States remain open regardless of outbreak.

States (both CHOs and Premiers) would have to trust one another and of course each can see each other’s contact tracing homework in terms of implementing 2-ring.

Perhaps a win-win and a partial step towards ‘living with the virus’ or ‘managing the virus’

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The downside of 2 ring is that it relies on sufficient testing to capture chains early. By the time the Avalon cluster was discovered, it was already too big to contact trace two rings out. Tracing in NSW may be very good, but it's only as good as testing will allow. And testing is NSW's Achilles Heel.

From what I understand, the Berala cluster could've been constrained faster with 2 rings.

But NSW basically tried to lockdown both residents and visitors for an initial 3 days (visitors relatively unsuccessfully) so you would essentially be in that first ring if you visited any site reported in the first 3 (edit or 7) days and second ring if your family had visited a site.

So instead of locking down about 250,000 in one LGA for about three weeks, it would be 250,000 in the LGA for about three (edit or seven) days and evolve to maybe 5000 across Sydney for three weeks to yield the cluster of 150.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It's the feedback I was given by my mate in NSW Health, who is actively involved in how they manage contact tracing that 2 ring wasn't feasible for Avalon. But you do you.

Also, testing rates spiked once the virus was already circulating. At that point, it was already too late for 2 ring. Not that 2 ring was (or is) NSW's policy, which is entirely the point.

But yes, I agree with you re South West and Western suburbs.

I thought your mate in NSW Health indicated NSW just didn’t do 2-ring, not that it wasn’t feasible.

Would the improvement towards the NSW Government QR code assist things and make 2-ring a bit more feasible?

Hopefully someone in NSW Health could do a simulation / thought exercise as to whether 2-rings might have been better targeted policy than the previous policy of LGA lockdown. And I mean the period after the initial 3 or 7 day lockdown when about 70/150 positive cases found in 3 days and about 100/150 positive cases found in 7 days.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Most suburban cafe owners have been busier than ever, with most people WFH they have seen huge jump in their weekday takeaway, delivery and lunch time dine in business, instead of only being super busy on weekends.

The cafes struggling are those in CBD areas where usual business is office workers, the decline is not due to 4sqm rule but rather the fact many office workers are still choosing to WFH.

The 4sqm rule was only reinstated just before xmas (it was at 2 sqm for months before that, when Vic cafes werent even allowed to do any dine in) and will revert back to 2sqm in two under 2 weeks time.

Anyway, out fo context as I was talking about the confidence to travel interstate - the 2 rings puts thousands into lockdown for vague reasons, whereas if the Commonwealth health advice is followed those thousands would all be allowed to travel freely.

It is not healthy for Victroia's paranoia to be gaining traction in other states and making everyone's lives much harder than they need to be. Iso should only ever be retrospective for close conatcts.

Just to clarify I think 2 rings means close contact of close contacts, plus casual contacts of venues. Not casual contacts of casual contacts.

 

[Gremlin]

I thought your mate in NSW Health indicated NSW just didn’t do 2-ring, not that it wasn’t feasible.

Would the improvement towards the NSW Government QR code assist things and make 2-ring a bit more feasible?

Hopefully someone in NSW Health could do a simulation / thought exercise as to whether 2-rings might have been better targeted policy than the previous policy of LGA lockdown. And I mean the period after the initial 3 or 7 day lockdown when about 70/150 positive cases found in 3 days and about 100/150 positive cases found in 7 days.

NSW don't do 2-ring (close contacts of close contacts).

Nevertheless, even if they did it wouldn't have been feasible for Avalon because of the number of cases emerging as quickly as they did. This is an indication of not identifying transmission early enough in the chain to make 2-ring work. I think it was 73-ish cases in 3 days. 2 rings around 73 cases means something like 50,000 needing to be found through contact tracing, which is beyond capacity. I hope that makes the distinction clear?

Berala would have been possible. Not easy because many would have been foot traffic through BWS, but possible. If they had done so,

a) state borders would have almost certainly reopened earlier; and
b) NSW businesses wouldn't still be facing restrictions for two more weeks.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW don't do 2-ring (close contacts of close contacts).

Nevertheless, even if they did it wouldn't have been feasible for Avalon because of the number of cases emerging as quickly as they did. This is an indication of not identifying transmission early enough in the chain to make 2-ring work. I think it was 73-ish cases in 3 days. 2 rings around 73 cases means something like 50,000 needing to be found through contact tracing, which is beyond capacity. I hope that makes the distinction clear?

Berala would have been possible. Not easy because many would have been foot traffic through BWS, but possible. If they had done so,

a) state borders would have almost certainly reopened earlier; and
b) NSW businesses wouldn't still be facing restrictions for two more weeks.

Wow I’m a little surprised 2-ring from 70-odd positives is 50,000 but I guess it’s sort of ballpark right because there were essentially no restrictions at the time.

My vague recollection of both Vic and SA seemed to indicate about handful (say 5) cases would mean about 2000 under 2-ring. So the estimate you give is about double the multiplier.

I guess noteworthy that NSW locked down about 250,000 Northern Beaches residents anyway and I wonder how many NB residents would have fallen within the 2-ring and what the ‘yield’ was v NB residents not within 2-ring and it’s yield v non-NB residents within 2-ring and that yield. It’s just my thought bubble, and not expecting anyone to be able to give a specific answer lol.

In any case, I accept your or your mate’s outlook that 50,000 was too many.

 

[nutwood]

No flaw in my logic. No infections have been reported as crossing the border while the border closure restrictions were in place in Dec/Jan, so therefore it is quite logical to assert that the restrictions stopped 100% of whatever the number would have been if the border closure/restrictions were not in place. 100% of zero is still zero.

That's the anti-lion powder argument. "I always take anti-lion powder with me when I camp. I have never been attacked by lions when camping. QED, anti-lion powder is 100% effective."