Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[andye]

The UK has completed about 5 million tests to date, so not a small number..

Fair call. They have clearly ramped up things on the testing front now

 

[Flashback]

Fair call. They have clearly ramped up things on the testing front now

Data is available on GOV.uk

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

www.gov.uk

 

[RooFlyer]

UK, Spain, Italy as good as tied on the 'Worldometer' site, sorted by mortality/population. Belgium's definition of 'Covid deaths' is very broad, so they are not quite so anomalous.

 

[drron]

Again it appears we are not looking at what the UK did to see why they have had such a bad outcome with the Covid virus.It really doesn't lend support to the idea that lockdowns are the most important part of the public health response.They actually went into lockdown on March 15th over a week before Australia.
So what did they do differently?They didn't close their borders and were very variable in using quarantine.They continued to let visitors in from the EU and had no quarantine for those people.

In the beginning of their problems there were quite a few people returning from Italy after a skiing trip with symptoms.They were told they "might" be advised to self isolate.Several schools had such trips and had some with symptoms-mainly the staff that accompanied the children.
So only now have they said they will close the borders and introduce a 14 day compulsory quarantine.The horse has bolted so far it can not be seen anymore.

Although when announcing the lockdown it was part of the plan to do extra contact tracing and testing that really took a long time to ramp up.By mid march they were only doing 5000 tests a day.It looked better earlier on but only because initially they recorded each person tested as having 2 tests-nasal and saliva.Germany when the UK was doing 5000 tests per day were doing 70000 per day and much better contact tracing.

So again not that much evidence that the lockdown per se is very important in our response to Covid 19.

 

[Flashback]

Again it appears we are not looking at what the UK did to see why they have had such a bad outcome with the Covid virus.It really doesn't lend support to the idea that lockdowns are the most important part of the public health response.They actually went into lockdown on March 15th over a week before Australia.
So what did they do differently?They didn't close their borders and were very variable in using quarantine.They continued to let visitors in from the EU and had no quarantine for those people.

In the beginning of their problems there were quite a few people returning from Italy after a skiing trip with symptoms.They were told they "might" be advised to self isolate.Several schools had such trips and had some with symptoms-mainly the staff that accompanied the children.
So only now have they said they will close the borders and introduce a 14 day compulsory quarantine.The horse has bolted so far it can not be seen anymore.

Although when announcing the lockdown it was part of the plan to do extra contact tracing and testing that really took a long time to ramp up.By mid march they were only doing 5000 tests a day.It looked better earlier on but only because initially they recorded each person tested as having 2 tests-nasal and saliva.Germany when the UK was doing 5000 tests per day were doing 70000 per day and much better contact tracing.

So again not that much evidence that the lockdown per se is very important in our response to Covid 19.

Indeed that is the case and also there's always lag in any decisions made and implementation, even the announcement yesterday to make face coverings compulsory on public transport won't be in effect for another 1.5 weeks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Again it appears we are not looking at what the UK did to see why they have had such a bad outcome with the Covid virus.It really doesn't lend support to the idea that lockdowns are the most important part of the public health response.They actually went into lockdown on March 15th over a week before Australia.
So what did they do differently?They didn't close their borders and were very variable in using quarantine.They continued to let visitors in from the EU and had no quarantine for those people.

In the beginning of their problems there were quite a few people returning from Italy after a skiing trip with symptoms.They were told they "might" be advised to self isolate.Several schools had such trips and had some with symptoms-mainly the staff that accompanied the children.
So only now have they said they will close the borders and introduce a 14 day compulsory quarantine.The horse has bolted so far it can not be seen anymore.

Although when announcing the lockdown it was part of the plan to do extra contact tracing and testing that really took a long time to ramp up.By mid march they were only doing 5000 tests a day.It looked better earlier on but only because initially they recorded each person tested as having 2 tests-nasal and saliva.Germany when the UK was doing 5000 tests per day were doing 70000 per day and much better contact tracing.

So again not that much evidence that the lockdown per se is very important in our response to Covid 19.

With the UK it would be quicker to make a list of what they did right, rather than what they did wrong.

Boris Johnson announced lockdown measures on 23 March, and so pretty much the same day Australia started lockdown measures. But in the UK they have just had a series of bungles and gaping holes. With their continued poor execution of pretty much everything to do with with combating Covid 19 I would not place much store in saying that lockdown do not work just because the UK has been a basket case. If your roof has many holes, patching one hole will not keep the rain out.

Instead I would look at the countries that have done well. Being successful has been achieved by good execution of a number of control measures, and most significantly by speed to act well. Those countries that were slower to act, had to adopt more severe control measures to flatten the curve.

The other factor is that it takes time to develop tools in both quality and scale, and this has not been equal for all countries. South Korea was able to deploy mass testing quicker than for example than Australia. Way behind Australia was say the USA, and way behind them all was the UK.

Lockdowns are a tool that can be deployed quickly and easily when there is a will do do so. lockdowns are thus a tool that can be used to allow a country to get their other tools in place, and also to provide time to address health facilities like ICU beds and PPE. Lockdowns are not just a one size fits all, and are different from country to to country. A lockdown is a requirement for people to stay where they are, to prevent mixing. Border controls are a part of what a lockdown should be for most countries as for most countries the people you most need to not mix with are the people who have Covid 19 outside of your country, and moreso when another country has higher levels.

 

[drron]

He actually urged the UK to observe lockdown on March 16th but became mandatory on March 23.
I don't see how you can see lockdown is a successful strategy when the UK lockdown has been at least as severe as Victoria.And it has failed.Common sense says it needed to include other measures and that has been border closures and quarantine of arriviing people in virtually all comparatively successful countries.
Again look at the opposite case-border closures with aggressive contact tracing and quarantine with little lockdown making Taiwan the most successful at combating the pandemic.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

He actually urged the UK to observe lockdown on March 16th but became mandatory on March 23.
I don't see how you can see lockdown is a successful strategy when the UK lockdown has been at least as severe as Victoria.And it has failed.Common sense says it needed to include other measures and that has been border closures and quarantine of arriviing people in virtually all comparatively successful countries.
Again look at the opposite case-border closures with aggressive contact tracing and quarantine with little lockdown making Taiwan the most successful at combating the pandemic.

As I have repeatedly stated to me border controls whether international, state, regional or local are all part of what a lockdown can be. Lockdowns are at their heart, preventing people from mixing. You can lockdown a house, an aged car facility (or just rooms of a facility), workplaces, public transport, sporting stadium, playgrounds all the way up to a country.

Lockdown measures have worked very well in many countries, cities, regions. All successful countries have used various lockdown measures. Taiwan by locking down their borders so early resulted in them not having to use internal lockdown measures.

NZ locked down a lot more heavily than Australia did for example. In Australia virtually all construction site kept operating. Many workplaces were allowed to keep core staff to keep IT systems running so that the other staff could work at home etc. Who were deemed to be "essential workers" became very broad. significant retail kept operating ie Bunnings and big box retailers like Harvey Norman.

NY had Covid 19 spirally out of control and so they shutdown hard. The Chinese lucked down Hubei almost totally. South Lore employed milder lockdown measures but still lockdown schools, museums, nightclub areas, churches, events and sport.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Again look at the opposite case-border closures with aggressive contact tracing and quarantine with little lockdown making Taiwan the most successful at combating the pandemic.

Taiwan is a special case as they were the only country sitting back waiting for a virus to emerge from China, but even Taiwan employed one lockdown measure which was to lockdown their international border.

By doing this early they created a Tawainese Bubble where internal lockdown measures were not required, but where an external lockdown was crucial.

 

[drron]

Don't get so excited.I am merely pointing out many of the lockdown provisions do not make a more successful outcome on controlling the virus.
the comparison with NZ is interesting.Their more severe lockdown led to a virtually identical death rate to Australia.In fact Australia just beat NZ in the deaths per million.NZ was in 81st position and Australia 82nd.A higher number meant a lower death rate.

COVID-19 death rate by country 2022 | Statista

COVID-19 deaths per capita were 2 to 3 times higher in Italy, the UK and Belgium than in the United States.

www.statista.com

And Norway who were a standout from surrounding countries and Europe in 59th position with 2.8 deaths per million did so by closing their borders tightly and insisting on quarantine for returning citizens.And as I have posted earlier the health officials have said that many of the lockdown provisions contributed very little to that result.The PM admitted publicly she had overreacted imposing the lockdown and promised the lockdown will be fully lifted by mid June.

Norway's PM admits she closed all schools and nurseries 'out of fear'

Norway's Prime Minister Erna Solberg has admitted that she imposed the strict lockdown measures on schools amid the coronavirus pandemic. 'out of fear'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

NZ have also lifted the lockdown a lot quicker than Australia again bringing up the question of why we are so slow doing this because of the Premiers being stubborn.And please I am not saying you do not agree with this last point just pointing out my position and the evidence for it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I agree that we should be further out of lockdown than we currently are and in particular the border controls.

But I firmly believe that the moderate lockdown measures that Australia entered into was the right call.

They were the handbrake that we needed to have, and were required in addition to our other control measures some of which took longer to deploy.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

0 new cases in Victoria today. The first since the testing blitz took off.

Though if you ignore the international travellers on quarantine daily cases have been low for a bit now.

 

[Gremlin]

Don't get so excited.I am merely pointing out many of the lockdown provisions do not make a more successful outcome on controlling the virus.
the comparison with NZ is interesting.Their more severe lockdown led to a virtually identical death rate to Australia.In fact Australia just beat NZ in the deaths per million.NZ was in 81st position and Australia 82nd.A higher number meant a lower death rate.

...but different provisions of lockdown, and their corresponding welfare support mechanisms, do lead to different economic outcomes. I agree that the comparison with NZ is interesting.

NZ locked down harder for shorter. They chose to take their economic pain for a much shorter period of time than any other Western nation. That is why they are forecasting economic GROWTH from next month, once allowing for the impact of International Travel (a 3.8% decline in GDP overall from pre-COVID figures where International Travel contributes 4.7% to GDP). Australia, on the other hand, has chosen a path where the economic pain is spread for a much longer period of time.

NZ's COVID welfare stimulus is slightly less than half of ours per capita. Theirs is almost completely paid out and having a multiplier effect in their economy. In comparison, we are not even halfway through paying out the (much larger) welfare stimulus package. Even with the much higher stimulus and the expected 10% decline in GDP for the first half of the year, the RBA are forecasting a continued decline in GDP in the second half of the year. There is a real risk that JobKeeper has created zombie businesses that will stay on life support until September and then hurt the economy by falling over in October/November. NZ has worn their equivalent pain already due to differences in how their welfare support mechanisms supported their lockdown levels.

One of the major lockdown provisions still in force in Australia is social distancing requirements. The Reserve Bank of NZ have done an analysis showing this degrades their GDP by 5%. This is why it is so critical it goes. NZ gets it. But even just a couple of days ago Paul Kelly was banging on about how imperative it is that it stays once we reopen borders to quarantine-free tourism. That same tourism industry that contributes 3.1% to our GDP (or closer to 1.5% once you strip out UK, USA and China who probably won't get quarantine-free access to our shores anytime soon). I don't doubt his qualifications as an epidemiologist. But once the virus gets controlled, this is an economic decision not a medical one. If the medical advice requires ongoing social distancing to reopen borders than that needs to be measured against the economic cost of that requirement. From a personal perspective, that travel sounds appealing, but economically from a national perspective it simply doesn't stack up.

 

[Pushka]

And a positive in Qld from someone who'd had contact with a positive Covid in Melbourne and who flew on 2 flights on June 2.

 

[tgh]

P'rhaps we need to subcontract the potus for guidance on a decent fence to keep the riff raff out… ( he may soon be seeking new employment opportunities)
Never mind keeping the borders closed , we clearly need 14 day quarantine and then a clear test before we allow interlopers to set foot in our pristine PERfect paradise….
Why did qld allow the person to fly in without a clear test ?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And a positive in Qld from someone who'd had contact with a positive Covid in Melbourne and who flew on 2 flights on June 2.

The main question here would seem to be why was he not self-isolating when it appears that he had been in contact with a known case? Was it a case of not wanting to put off plans that he had already made as you would assume that both the flights and the interstate job had both been committed to for some time? If so this is extremely disappointing.

Mr Miles said the man, who had been in contact with a known COVID-19 case in Melbourne, spent one night in Brisbane to socialise with about 15 family and friends on the south side of Brisbane.

Public health alert issued after fruit picker with COVID-19 flies from Melbourne into Queensland

Queensland Health issues a public health alert after a fruit picker took two flights — from Melbourne to Brisbane to Bundaberg — while infectious. He also worked and lived with other strawberry pickers before his positive test came back.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pushka]

The main question here would seem to be why was he not self-isolating when it appears that he had been in contact with a known case? Was it a case of not wanting to put off plans that he had already made as you would assume that both the flights and the interstate job had both been committed to for some time? If so this is extremely disappointing.

Mr Miles said the man, who had been in contact with a known COVID-19 case in Melbourne, spent one night in Brisbane to socialise with about 15 family and friends on the south side of Brisbane.

Public health alert issued after fruit picker with COVID-19 flies from Melbourne into Queensland

Queensland Health issues a public health alert after a fruit picker took two flights — from Melbourne to Brisbane to Bundaberg — while infectious. He also worked and lived with other strawberry pickers before his positive test came back.

www.abc.net.au

Agree. And it's why international travellers coming from active countries need supervised quarantine. Sorry Flashback. The good have to suffer because of fools like this jerk. Locals can be idiots too. Hope gets named and shamed and that the test is a true positive this time

 

[DC3]

And a positive in Qld from someone who'd had contact with a positive Covid in Melbourne and who flew on 2 flights on June 2.

So, he just gets a flight into BNE from MEL, and after spending a night with a family of 14, jumps on another flight to BDB to pick fruit with others?

And doesn’t (need to) self-isolate?

Edit: But, the strawberries that he picked are just fine.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

P'rhaps we need to subcontract the potus for guidance on a decent fence to keep the riff raff out… ( he may soon be seeking new employment opportunities)
Never mind keeping the borders closed , we clearly need 14 day quarantine and then a clear test before we allow interlopers to set foot in our pristine PERfect paradise….
Why did qld allow the person to fly in without a clear test ?

"Essential workers" which evidently fruit pickers qualify as are not tested when crossing borders. State borders are crossed by many every day despite all the rhetoric.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Edit: But, the strawberries that he picked are just fine.

They need to be as those strawberries picked by one idiot will have cost probably tens of millions of dollars and many weeks, if not months, of extra hardship and misery to probably hundreds of thousands of workers/people as border controls will now drag on.