Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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nutwood said:
The logic is unsound. Person A may pass it to Person B on the street but we don't know how many people Person A did not pass it to. They may have been really close and intimate to Person C without passing it on.
The only way meaningful figures can be derived is with large numbers or very controlled experimentation where every possible variable has been eliminated. Otherwise it's the same as saying I flipped a coin ten times today and got eight heads, therefore flipping a coin has an 80% chance of heads.
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Exactly. Its much more effective for compliant public control to say "Shock horror! A fleeting contact, caught covid. Its a beast! Its a beast!" rather than, say, "Of 150 people they brushed past, and 30 other close contacts they had, one brush-past person caught covid and we can't be sure of that other vectors weren't in play for that person".

Alarmism for public control is all very well, but sooner or later (perhaps even now), crying wolf becomes counter productive.
 
Seems a little.... excessive? To stop an outbreak of a few cases?

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Sunshine Coast Airport NSW arrivals confused and angry at police 'invasion of privacy'​


Queenslanders flying into the Sunshine Coast since the latest Victorian lockdown say they were "interrogated" upon arrival, had their privacy invaded and were treated differently because of where they live.

Sunshine Coast resident Daniel Gibbs, who was returning from Sydney, said the way he was treated was "horrendous, rude and vile" and that he was made to feel as though he was lying.

"'Where else have you been? Why have you been there? You can really tell me where you've been. I don't believe you. Show me your Google Maps so I can see exactly where you've been,'" Mr Gibbs recalled the officers saying.

www.abc.net.au

'Horrendous, rude and vile': Police thumb through travellers' phones at Queensland airport

Queenslanders arriving home from interstate on the weekend say they were "interrogated" by police who demanded to check their location data and even bank statements.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
jakeseven7 said:
"'Where else have you been? Why have you been there? You can really tell me where you've been. I don't believe you. Show me your Google Maps so I can see exactly where you've been,'"
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Ooh, I've been hoping for one of these interrogations so I can have some fun. Maybe the officers manning the booths in WA are too professional.
 
Transmission between strangers is nothing new it has happened in all the larger outbreaks.

The customers who caught covid at BWS Berala were all in the store for only a few minutes, but you didn't see any panic about fleeting contact. The butcher case in Melbourne previously, short exposure time, I'm sure the customers didn't know the butcher personally.

There was also prolific spread between strangers in Melbourne's second wave, because they weren't tracing properly then the only connections they could make was family and workplace spread, they simply didn't report the others because they had no idea.
 
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RooFlyer said:
Exactly. Its much more effective for compliant public control to say "Shock horror! A fleeting contact, caught covid. Its a beast! Its a beast!" rather than, say, "Of 150 people they brushed past, and 30 other close contacts they had, one brush-past person caught covid and we can't be sure of that other vectors weren't in play for that person".

Alarmism for public control is all very well, but sooner or later (perhaps even now), crying wolf becomes counter productive.
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I don’t have any issues with the use of hyperbole in this situation because it did get people off their backsides and get vaccinated. Something had to be done. UK currently thinks Aus is a nutcase for quibbling about which vaccination to have unless you are in a rare category of pre existing issues.
 
jakeseven7 said:
Seems a little.... excessive? To stop an outbreak of a few cases?

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Sunshine Coast Airport NSW arrivals confused and angry at police 'invasion of privacy'​

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I am told that this is also happening in Darwin where some passengers and crew are being told to open up their bank app to show recent transactions and determining if they can enter normally or are sent to Howard Springs.
 
Must...Fly! said:
I'm confused, has the virus evolved to jump between strangers instead of just between friends? Surely not everyone at the restaurant in Black Rock knew each other.
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The "stranger" term is not a good label.

What they mean by stranger transmission is where people are not just unknown to one another, but also where there is:
  • no fixed spatial relationship (ie adjoining seats)
  • or transactional relationship (ie with staff).

So this does not include:
  • Customer/retail transaction (Ie as at Butcher Club, or bar staff at Crossroads hotel) = they are strangers but both test positive and the there is a verbal/physical exchange
  • People sitting at adjacent tables at a Pub or Cafe etc (ie Kilmore cafe) = while they can be at the same table and know each other, but can also be strangers just sitting at adjacent tables but both test positive and the there is a verbal/physical exchange

In comparing this outbreak to previous outbreaks in Victoria where contact tracing was adequate cases stemming from where people cannot recall an interchange or fixed proximity to another person were rare. So what is different this time is that a significant proportion of transmission has occurred in this manner.

Now partly this could be that contact tracing is now just is much better, but given that positive cases were investigated backwards it cannot just be that.


EDIT: Jeroen has also in the Vic Presser added that in these cases that the two positive cases linked at the venue do not recall anything but the briefest of possible of contact with the other. Again this is not what has occurred to the same extent in any of the other outbreaks.
 
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Vic Presser.

2 of the West Melbourne cases are a new variant. The Delta variant.

Family was in Jervis Bay.

Not yet linked to any HQ Cases.
 
And that was the family who had symptoms for 6 days before bothering to get tested.

Also advising the genomics on this one has taken a while. Genomic links usually confirmed within 24-48 hours, this family has been known positives for longer than that. - why the delay. Did govt not want to admit they have had another leak?

The main reason for the size of this outbreak is 3 selfish individuals with symptoms not getting tested on the day they first felt unwell but waiting 5-12 days to do so - therefore being in the community spreading it further.
 
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Wait, so where did this other variant come from?

And you can hardly blame the officials for interrogating people on arrival after the number of people who have been selfishly breaking the travel rules.
 
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