Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RooFlyer]

This article form SMH dispute Sutton's claims that the kappa variant is hugely more infectious than previous ones and also calls bs on the claims around fleeting contact.

Also in the Oz on-line:

Some of the nation’s top epidemiologists including University of Melbourne Professor James McCaw, Deakin University epidemiologist Catherine Bennett and ANU infectious diseases expert Peter Collignon raised concerns over whether Victorian authorities have accurately described the nature of the virus.

“There is no epidemiological evidence that this virus spreads faster,” Professor McCaw, told The Age.

“There is no clear reason to think this virus is spreading in different ways.”

... although they seem eminently qualified to make such observations, I wonder if they fall into the category "ask enough experts and you'll get someone who disagrees with what's been decided"?

 

[Must...Fly!]

I will be watching today's press conference marathon with some interest.

 

[drron]

Also in the Oz on-line:

Some of the nation’s top epidemiologists including University of Melbourne Professor James McCaw, Deakin University epidemiologist Catherine Bennett and ANU infectious diseases expert Peter Collignon raised concerns over whether Victorian authorities have accurately described the nature of the virus.

“There is no epidemiological evidence that this virus spreads faster,” Professor McCaw, told The Age.

“There is no clear reason to think this virus is spreading in different ways.”

... although they seem eminently qualified to make such observations, I wonder if they fall into the category "ask enough experts and you'll get someone who disagrees with what's been decided"?

Though it is quite a lot of epidemiologist/virologists who agree with that opinion.I am sure some will hold an opposite opinion.

 

[Lynda2475]

Well thankfully so far the Victorian family's grand tour of southern NSW has yet to result in any local cases. If it does may be problematic since such a long delay before coming forward for testing.

NSW recorded no new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.

NSW also broke its record for the highest-ever number of vaccines given in one day, giving 14,595 vaccines in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From ABC​

By Simon Smale​

​

No new exposure sites linked to new cases​

Alen Cheng is giving some updates on the new cases.

"All were primary close contacts of previously identified positive cases and all were quarantining and in isolation for the entire infectious period, so there are no new exposure sites related to those cases," he said.

The three new cases are:

• One is a child of a previously identified case in Whittlesea.
• One is a staff Member from a Port Melbourne workplace.
• One person is in their 90s who is a resident at Arcare Maidstone

Dr Cheng said there are 243 level one contacts associated with the two cases who attended North Melbourne Primary School.

He said there was a designated testing centre at the Melbourne Showgrounds for those cases.

He said authorities are pleased with the testing response in Bendigo after wastewater virus fragments were discovered. He said the repeat testing from all of the Bendigo catchments wastewater samples are negative.

He said 85 per cent of the 57,000 tests were turned around in 24 hours, with 98 per cent within the next day.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From ABC

By Simon Smale

Variants are shown to be more infectious: Dr Cheng​

Dr Cheng is being asked about whether or not a particular strain is spreading faster than another.

"It is not really controversial to say that these variants have been shown to be more infectious," Dr Cheng said.
"The way that is looked at is is it enclosed areas. What is the attack rate in households? What proportion of people get infected? For the variance, including the Indian variant we are dealing with at the moment, but has shown to be higher than the strain we were dealing with last year.
"The other thing we have seen is that people, like the case that we had today where we linked it, there are certainly people that have been strangers to each other ... that shows us that this is a very infectious virus."

How much more contagious is it? Dr Cheng was asked.

"I spoke to Professor McCall this morning and we certainly agree that this Kappa strain and the alpha strain are both probably 50 per cent more infectious than the strain that we had last year.
"The other Indian variant, the Delta strain, B1617, is probably even more infectious than that," Dr Cheng said.

Dr Cheng was asked about what the R-0 number was, as opposed to giving an estimate.

"R-0 is the reproductive number when there is no controls in place, so we think for the virus that we had last year, it is probably about 2.5, that figure for the UK variants, the Alpha strain is probably about 3.75 and for the Delta strain which is not the one that we have here, it is probably about in the order of five, but that's when you don't have any controls over the virus."

Dr Cheng said the reduced number of interaction meant that pre-lockdown, "we think that the R effective was 1.1 to 1.3".

"We think now with everything we're doing now, [R-0 is] probably is below one and the national modelling expert estimates at about 0.69. There is a range of uncertainty about that but that is lower than one and it is encouraging to say that."

 

[Lynda2475]

we think that the R effective was 1.1 to 1.3

So not spreading materially faster than other outbreaks in Australia.

 

[Lynda2475]

500+ is isolation in Southern NSW due to visit of positive family.

"The ministry said 517 people had been contacted to test and self-isolate after visiting venues at Goulburn, Gundagai, Huskisson, Hyams Beach, Jervis Bay and Vincentia as early as May 19."

More than 500 in isolation after infectious family’s road trip

Locals on the South Coast and along the Hume are awaiting COVID-19 test results after NSW Health revised its list of sites visited by a holidaying Victorian family.

www.smh.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sutton's claims that the kappa variant is hugely more infectious than previous ones


But did he?


Yesterday at 12:23pm
By Simon Smale

Kappa variant 'not the most infectious, but it is more infectious than anything we saw in the beginning and middle of 2020': Professor Sutton said​

"I talk about the R-0 for this virus. It might be 5. That means if you are not altering your behaviour, if are you not doing contact tracing, every person passes it on to five others.

"Clearly that is not happening here. We are chasing down every case, we are chasing down their primary contacts but we have seen a growth of probably a dozen primary close contacts for that first case to thousands upon thousands.

"Those are individuals who could become positive and we are seeing individuals we don't know how they've acquired it."




I think Allen Cheng explained today that with the reproductive number that there is a difference between a number for "in the wild" where there are no measures or controls in place, and when there are.

In Australia since the very early days of this pandemic there have been a range of measures in place, and the range of measures varying at any one time.

 

[drron]

Good to see data harvesting actually put to gpod use.

No Cookies | The Courier Mail

No Cookies

www.qt.com.au

doesn't worry me.

 

[Lynda2475]

But did he?

Yes he did, he used alarmist language "beast" then tried to temper it later when he was called out by experts for it.

Just like Merlino is doing when he says lockdown wasn't a choice, Of course it was a choice. Victoria chose to lock down the entire state not just the metro areas with community cases. Lockdowns are not recommended response for low volume of community cases. The decision to ease restrictions in the regions comes now because they have zero chance of commonwealth support whilst they exceed what is reasonable.

 

[RooFlyer]

But did he?

I don't think there is any doubt that the language used by Prof Sutton, and the Vic authorities recently has been well above the previous outbreaks in Victoria in respect of its infectivity and transmissivity. Describing it as an 'absolute beast', and moving faster than any other strain they have dealt with certainly got my attention. I don't have a problem with that language at this stage; hopefully it also got the attention of all who may be exposed to it and shook them out of any complacency.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So not spreading materially faster than other outbreaks in Australia.

Reff is also a function of what measures are being deployed, and not just the characteristics of a particular strain. Reff will also varies over time. So what are you comparing it to?


In Australia during the pandemic we have seen both higher and lower Reff's than what is currently the situation in Victoria. But a lower Reff does not itself mean that a strain is less or more infectious. It may be, but it may also be that you are controlling it better or worse.



So the question really should be what would the Reff be if less measures were in place, or if no measures were in place, like Sutton referred to yesterday, but which some people mistook to be the current Reff.

Contact tracing for example is much better than it was at the time of the Victoria second wave. Some people have been vaccinated. Test results for such large testing volumes are much better. And while some people have not been presenting for testing the record 344, 512 tests in the last week.

So the current Reff is a function of the measures in place. And what it is now, will be different that say when case 5 was identified. The measures in place now are also different than back then.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Just like Merlino is lying when he says lockdown wasn't a choice

It made my blood boil when he said that. Bare faced liar, avoiding accountability by hiding behind someone who is also not accountable. Absolutely disgraceful.

In my view politicians are paid to receive various pieces of advice and then choose a way forward after considering all that advice. Not just blindly follow.

 

[Lynda2475]

So what are you comparing it to?

"Professor McCaw said the reproduction rate of the current outbreak peaked at just above 2 – before Victoria’s outbreak response began – and was now hovering just below 1. "

So was no where near the 5 that Sutton was using to scare people.

The fact of the matter is there has been much unnecessary fear mongering by Vic government during this latest outbreak much of which is not supported by actual evidence.

 

[dajop]

Wouldn't be any partisan politics creeping into this thread (yet again) would there be?

They don't fearmonger ... they're not doing enough... people don't get tested and move about the community spreading the virus.

They fearmonger, and OMG it's lying governments, they're misleading the people

Too fast to lock down, too slow to lock down

Too fast to lift restrictions, tool slow to lift restrictions.

Not cautious enough, too cautious.

Victorian government can never do anything right. Ever.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Ro used for modelling at the time of the Second Wave In Victoria was



Cheng if I understood him correctly today indicated that they are currently using around 3.75. (Again this is the theoretical value and is absence of any public health measures, which has not been the case since about March 2020 in Australia).



Reff's are normally calculated on a rolling week bases.

The effective reproduction number is smoothed over a 7 day window to reduce the impact of localized events that may cause large fluctuations.​

So with only such a short time span already, and as controls have already been varied so what a Reff is on a given day is not precise.



Having a lower Reff than the Ro means that the measures are working than compared to a Ro scenario.

 

[Lynda2475]

If you are going to rates of transmission that "has never been seen before" then you need facts to support it. Its not about politics its about being honest with your state and the rest of the country. The facts are we have seen spread at this rate and higher rates before. The language they are choosing to use is absolutely designed to scare people into certain actions.

Post automatically merged: Jun 3, 2021

Victorian government can never do anything right. Ever.

Your words, not mine.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

"Professor McCaw said the reproduction rate of the current outbreak peaked at just above 2 – before Victoria’s outbreak response began – and was now hovering just below 1. "

So was no where near the 5 that Sutton was using to scare people.

.

The first two numbers are Reffs where different Public Health Settings were in place, and the third an Ro. The Ro is a worse case scenario (ie no public health measures).

 

[Lynda2475]

The Commonwealth has always defined a hotspot as more than 30 locally acquired cases over three consecutive days in metropolitan areas.

In addition back in September they stated:

* A COVID-free zone is an area that has no locally acquired cases that pose a risk to the community in the previous 28 days

* A COVID-community transmission zone - akin to a hotspot- would be defined as an area where the virus was spreading, cases were locally acquired from an unknown source and "a proportion" of locally acquired cases had no known source in the previous 28 days. The risk of exportation of disease by individuals in this zone who travel to other areas is high.

Todays ABC blog says PM is now saying "three cases per day, averaged over three days" Why this now increased intolerance? When did that change ?

Honestly 3 cases a day is something we should be able to easily manage.