Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 Crashes in Kazakhstan

[moa999]

Seems the last 12-15 rows broke off on the hard landing so no fireball in that section and from a video probably held most of the survivors.

#J28243 on X will give a lot of videos.

 

[jb747]

If you follow AV herald the truth will be hard to establish, it’s like Wikipedia in the early days!

Never read any comments, but if there's raw data you can sometimes make up your own mind.

GPS jamming doesn’t affect Radar, it affects data coming from the plane via transponders. Aktau has TAR and SSR in addition to ADSB, and unlike ADSB the TAR would show other airborne “objects”.

I wouldn't expect terminal radar to be able to see a SAM, though I suppose it's not all that relevant.

Has been some talk that the diversion could have caused confusion to the local air defence teams on who it was, as no aircraft was expected in this area from Grozny to Aktau, which also flying in the direction towards Moscow. Something that was moving incredible fast in the direction of Moscow, split second decision, launch or not.

Presumably with IFF turned on. Airliners aren't all that fast, especially down low, so it smacks of trigger happy. On the other hand, it seems the USN managed to shoot down an F18 whilst it was on approach, so they aren't the only ones guilty of that.

The defence teams probably don’t factor in diversions into their planning. Especially those heading in the direction of Moscow.

I'm not convinced that they consider civil aviation at all.

This probably won’t be the last either.

You're too likely to be correct.

The fact so many survived is a credit to the crew. Sadly they hit the engine on the ground first which essentially created the fireball, but for that many to walk away, certainly an impressive effort.

Pretty much the same as UA232.

I'd be wary of direct translations of the radio comms. It loses a lot of the actual meaning when taken out of the local aviation language. I wouldn't be surprised if 'bird' is actually the term for a missile. I don't think you could mix the two events up.

 

[nancypants]

As Plato once said, only the dead have seen the end of war

 

[Saab34]

I don’t think this will be the end of it. Some of these regions have high volume and very large aircraft passing through. All it takes is one or two people on the ground making the wrong call and it’s kablammo.

I don’t think tensions in these regions will be easing anytime this decade.

 

[flyer89]

I just saw some more up close footage and the tail area has been absolutely peppered. Probably not birds….

 

[Himeno]

I'd be wary of direct translations of the radio comms. It loses a lot of the actual meaning when taken out of the local aviation language. I wouldn't be surprised if 'bird' is actually the term for a missile. I don't think you could mix the two events up.

And you also end up with issues of translations of translations causing many of the media reports to confuse what happened with the JL/JPCG incident at HND in Jan.

Something prevented them from landing at Grozny or Makhachkala. They reported due to weather, but the weather reported at the time shouldn't have impacted a landing. Maybe something to do with the GPS jamming in the area at the time?
They then diverted towards Aktau and were damaged by Russian weapons fire on the way.

At the time, Russian aircraft above the Caspian Sea were firing missiles at Ukraine while Ukrainian drones were moving towards Grozny.

 

[jb747]

According to the raw data the aircraft’s flight path was oscillatory for over 70 minutes prior to the accident, with height deviations of +/-8,000’. It almost impacted the water a number of times.

 

[markis10]

Something prevented them from landing at Grozny or Makhachkala. They reported due to weather, but the weather reported at the time shouldn't have impacted a landing. Maybe something to do with the GPS jamming in the area at the time?

Cloud base of 700 ft

URMG 250430Z 26001MPS 3600 BR OVC007 03/02 Q1025 R26/290250 NOSIG RMK MT OBSC OBST OBSC QFE754/1005

 

[jb747]

Cloud base of 700 ft

URMG 250430Z 26001MPS 3600 BR OVC007 03/02 Q1025 R26/290250 NOSIG RMK MT OBSC OBST OBSC QFE754/1005

There's a ILS for 26, which would have gotten them below that cloud base. But, in the other direction, only RNAV or NDB. RNAV would minima would be around what they'd need, but of course, that's what's being jammed. No chance with NDB. If the ILS for 26 wasn't working, not much chance of getting in.