Bushfires 2019/2020!

[Flying mermaid]

Glad that parts of Victoria and NSW received some rain.

I read a lot of articles over the weekend about the bushfires and the causes, each article seems to push its own agenda so you need to read a lot.

There is climate change, yes we are in a dry spell, there is government red tape, there probably hasn't been enough back burning or clearing, there is a lot more people who like to live in the country, and one article I saw said that fires had been deliberately or carelessly lit fires.
I am surprised not more people have died.

If it were one or 2 issues then it would be able to fixed easily.

Which is why it needs a coordinated plan, with both short term and long term solutions. Never going to be able to stop bad bushfires - it’s part of living in a hot, dry country with lots of national forest, however we can do better than this.

 

[Flying mermaid]

People seem to have forgotten the 1974-1975 bushfires which affected every state of Australia except I think Tasmania

Over 100 million hectares burnt.

Population in 1974 was around 13 million, now around 25 million. That has to make a difference in how many affected.

 

[Quickstatus]

Population in 1974 was around 13 million, now around 25 million. That has to make a difference in how many affected.

Sorry was quoting total area burnt but understand what you mean. Population has doubled with the urban sprawl impinging on what was previously forests and grasslands.

 

[Pushka]

Glad that parts of Victoria and NSW received some rain.

I read a lot of articles over the weekend about the bushfires and the causes, each article seems to push its own agenda so you need to read a lot.

There is climate change, yes we are in a dry spell, there is government red tape, there probably hasn't been enough back burning or clearing, there is a lot more people who like to live in the country, and one article I saw said that fires had been deliberately or carelessly lit fires.
I am surprised not more people have died.

If it were one or 2 issues then it would be able to fixed easily.

Indeed, it is a complex range of issues that have created the bushfire situation and includes outright criminal acts. A 79 year old has been arrested in SA for starting four fires in the South East! Yes the climate has shifted. Yes people are living in some difficult areas. Yes there is a drought. In SA anyway the fire trails have been left to vegetate so there is no access to back burn. Unless people are willing to discuss the complexity of causes and not simply bang on about their one cause only, then I simply pay them no attention.

 

[amaroo]

Gosh, can you believe it! Some 60,000 odd years of experience does make a difference

‘It's miraculous’: Owners say cultural burning saved their property

As he returned to inspect his bushfire-ravaged property, Phil Sheppard expected the worst - but somehow, his home survived.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Vic]

Glad that parts of Victoria and NSW received some rain.

I read a lot of articles over the weekend about the bushfires and the causes, each article seems to push its own agenda so you need to read a lot.

There is climate change, yes we are in a dry spell, there is government red tape, there probably hasn't been enough back burning or clearing, there is a lot more people who like to live in the country, and one article I saw said that fires had been deliberately or carelessly lit fires.
I am surprised not more people have died.

If it were one or 2 issues then it would be able to fixed easily.

The most interesting thing I've heard on radio was some kind of forestry/fire expert saying that the areas that haven't been burnt for a number of years are most resistant to fires, and that those areas that get burned every year are most likely to burn again. It's an interesting idea, hopefully they look into all these things afterwards to update management practises if required.

Apparently Tuggeranong is getting worse and we are easing. I have stopped using the ACT health site as it is a 24 rolling average so pretty inaccurate. This ones gives more “real time” readings. The sites all seem to be slightly different, but the net effect is it’s all hazardous to health

CanberraAir

www.canberraair.com

Your side of town seems insanely bad at the moment.

A 24 hour time weighted average is more relevant for assessing exposure.

 

[amaroo]

Interesting interview from 2016.

Victor Steffensen - Its pretty simple really

volunteerfirefighters.org.au

 

[Vic]

I am finding he is doing what I want - bringing in the reserve, paying volunteers etc etc. I think the authorised thing is a legal requirement and I wonder how often the people actually do authorise it. If he did then I agree he’s a wallly.

the authorised thing is only required for political advertising. There is the answer in assessing Morrison, it's all political spin.
As for bringing in the Reserve, what a joke. The first time they've ever called out the Reserve. The best bit is units are mostly regional, like the Hunter River Lancers, and are going to have a large number of members who are probably also in the RFS. So we call them away from RFS duties to do Reserve duties?

Many of the old and bold regular army guys I have on facebook talk about their experiences as being trained and on call over Christmas for emergency response. That would be the better model as it involves specific training and resources who know they might be called on.

 

[Quickstatus]

So we call them away from RFS duties to do Reserve duties?

Reserve units who are also in the RFS or a resident of fire affected areas are exempt.

 

[Vic]

Reserve units who are also in the RFS or a resident of fire affected areas are exempt.

Strangely that doesn't match with the advise from Government that they are calling out the reserve because those personnel are local. Certainly 12/16 HRL have been called out. They're located New England and regional NSW.
Even if exempt, that means other units are being called in who are not locally based, and therefore a train emergency cadre of the regular army would be a better option.
Unfortunately, the high operational tempo means the regular army is stretched to breaking point.

There are so many things wrong with calling out the reserve in terms of the bigger picture, even if they do provide feet on the ground.

 

[Quickstatus]

Strangely that doesn't match with the advise from Government that they are calling out the reserve because those personnel are local. Certainly 12/16 HRL have been called out. They're located New England and regional NSW.
Even if exempt, that means other units are being called in who are not locally based, and therefore a train emergency cadre of the regular army would be a better option.
Unfortunately, the high operational tempo means the regular army is stretched to breaking point.

There are so many things wrong with calling out the reserve in terms of the bigger picture, even if they do provide feet on the ground.

Any reservists who are engaged through RFS / SES or another voluteer/paid emergency service is exempt
and publicly ScoMo has said any reservists whose property is under threat are also exempt.

Politicians always want the ADF to do more but at the same time cut back on their funding

The compulsory Call out order:

Operation BUSHFIRE ASSIST 2019-2020 - Defence Reserves Support

At the request from the Government, in order to support national disaster relief efforts, the Governor General, His Excellency General the Honourable David Hurley AC DSC (Retd) has issued a Call Out Order: Operation Bushfire Assist 2019-2020.

www.defencereservessupport.gov.au

Unless the Call Out has been extended, isnt the Tamworth 12/16 HRL is part of the Townsville based 11th Brigade which was not part of the ?initial? Call out

 

[Flying mermaid]

Sorry was quoting total area burnt but understand what you mean. Population has doubled with the urban sprawl impinging on what was previously forests and grasslands.

Yes I did understand what you were quoting Population does make a difference - the South Coast population would have been tiny and the sprawl south of Wollongong non existent. Presumably all states have similar sprawls which makes the impact of the fires so much greater.

 

[drron]

It is not only Australian indigenous people that used frequent fires to control the landscape,native Americans also practiced it.

Indian Use of Fire in Early Oregon

Anthropogenic (human-caused) fire was a major component of the Native system of land and resource management in what is now Oregon. Of all the techniques used …

oregonencyclopedia.org

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes I did understand what you were quoting Population does make a difference - the South Coast population would have been tiny and the sprawl south of Wollongong non existent. Presumably all states have similar sprawls which makes the impact of the fires so much greater.

Yes in the end there will be several metrics to measure the scale and impact of the bushfires. The problem I have is that some are saying these are the worst ever, or record breaking (terrible as they are) when they may not be.

 

[Quickstatus]

Interesting to note that the QF 737 flight which was caught up in the pyrocumulus cloud did not see it on radar.

I guess sort of similar to the invisibility of volcanic ash to aircraft weather radar.
@jb747 do you have a technical perspective please?

 

[Deleted member]

We have had maybe 1 or 2mm of rain which has washed the atmosphere to the extent we can now see just past the lake.
It doesn't smell outside like it did yesterday unless I am getting used to it.

I hope all is otherwise well in your life down there. these fires are so devastating

 

[Pushka]

the authorised thing is only required for political advertising. There is the answer in assessing Morrison, it's all political spin.
As for bringing in the Reserve, what a joke. The first time they've ever called out the Reserve. The best bit is units are mostly regional, like the Hunter River Lancers, and are going to have a large number of members who are probably also in the RFS. So we call them away from RFS duties to do Reserve duties?

Many of the old and bold regular army guys I have on facebook talk about their experiences as being trained and on call over Christmas for emergency response. That would be the better model as it involves specific training and resources who know they might be called on.

There was a good response to these arriving into KI today. If nothing else it makes people feel that others are there to help them and mental health care for the people is extremely important right now.

 

[Quickstatus]

There was a good response to these arriving into KI today. If nothing else it makes people feel that others are there to help them and mental health care for the people is extremely important right now.

Yes morale is exceedingly important and surprisingly cheap to obtain but so often overlooked.

 

[jb747]

Interesting to note that the QF 737 flight which was caught up in the pyrocumulus cloud did not see it on radar.

I guess sort of similar to the invisibility of volcanic ash to aircraft weather radar.
@jb747 do you have a technical perspective please?

AV may be able to give a better insight, as he uses the same radar, and has probably been looking at these clouds a bit.

But basically radar is tuned to see particles of a certain size, and reflectivity. What it isn't tuned to see, it may not see at all, or it may give an inaccurate display. For instance, most radar does not see snow, even though, to us, that consists of nice big particles. Early F-111s had issues with this when terrain following, when it was discovered that entire snow banks could be invisible.

If the pyro cloud is big enough to start precipitating moisture, even without rain, it will probably become visible. But, it may not be as visible as a normal CB. I recall occasions where I've seen these clouds, and the radar hasn't. But I can also recall a case where the radar seemed to be showing even more than I could see. It's a bit like the runway RVR system. Thats measure visibility in fog, but gives erroneous results in smoke.

 

[RB]

Photo we took in Jan 1994 on our flight back to SYD from Fiji-smoke was like this all the way. Plane windows must have been dirty back then too