Bushfires 2019/2020!

[RooFlyer]

that temperatures keep going up. That's called climate change

Temperatures go down in climate change too. Into ice ages, out of ice ages, back and forth many times in the recent past. The earth keeps pretty good records

Back to bushfires ....

We need better management of forests for sure. More Hazard / fuel reduction fires were a strong recommendation of the Royal Commission. Let’s do it!

 

[get me outta here]

Sure, but they are not on here, we are the ‘experts’ and it will be explained again and again just in case we didn’t get it yet the 20th time.

Someone needs to tell the 43.7% that don’t understand.

 

[get me outta here]

Yes, mostly drastically different. However, I would like to hear from them. I’ve heard a few on the radio and read a few reports but I assume they’re too busy doing things and helping people who do believe in their skills to produce the graphs, tables, benchmarks etc the other ‘experts’ seem to require. Especially as it is a spoken culture of knowledge sharing.

They are certainly listening to the Indigenous population in SA. The trouble is that European settlement has meant a drastic change to the vegetation when they tried to create a Little Europe down under.

 

[Moody]

Back to bushfires ....

Good idea - these science vs religion debates never go anywhere.

We need better management of forests for sure. More Hazard / fuel reduction fires were a strong recommendation of the Royal Commission. Let’s do it!

Some of the hysteria that this will be the solution to all our problems is really just quite an emotional load of rubbish, to be honest.

Hear, hear.

 

[Cossie]

No fires reported in Canberra, other then the under control bush fire near the airport.

Smoke is from fires in NSW. Visible smoke in the ACT | ACT Emergency Services Agency

The boss misread the "app", it was an "incident" in Calwell, not a fire. I have sternly admonished her.

 

[drron]

Pushka you are so right about the physical measurement of temperatures.Weather stations keep moving and the taking of temperatures keeps changing.More recently the readings have been changed from the maximum or minimum temps to be the average over 1 minute to now only 1 second.
So the change from the old Stephenson screens to digital recording produced an average 0.5C increase in maximum temperatures.The BOM however tried to get away with minimum temperatures by not believing them if they measured less than 0.5C above the previous minimum record-got caught out on that so now apparently the minimums are taken the same way as the minimums..

Now on 6/1 this year Adelaide was on track to record it's lowest ever maximum for the day-maximums and minimums are calculated for the 24 hour period from 9am to 9am the next day.On that day just before 9am at the end of the recording for 6/1 the temp at the West Terrace station suddenly jumped 1.1C so going above the previous record low maximum.Remember we are now measuring the hottest second.

Interestingly Adelaide has the reputation of being one of the best temperature records from 1856 due to Sir Charles Todd.However the BOM has discarded all raw temperature records before 1910.The old records however still are on record in other places and show from 1890 to 1910 were very hot.

“Todd soon became responsible for setting up and supervising a network of meteorological stations. According to his plan of 1856 his observation stations were connected by telegraph and were able to report their findings daily to the Adelaide Observatory.”…..”He was also the first to make the connection between droughts in Australia and India due to a phenomenon known today as El Nino. “

Charles Todd

“With the building of the Overland telegraph in 1855, Charles Todd, aged 30, as Superintendent of Telegraphs, established meteorological stations on every route where he constructed telegraph lines in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia’s Northern Territory and Darwin. Todd organised the real time collection of the data by telegraph and began the preparation of synoptic maps. By the 1870s, and throughout the 1880s and 1890s, the meteorological data from the telegraph stations saw an increasing use of synoptic charts of pressure, wind, temperature and rainfall for daily weather forecasting.”
This quote came from this page which mysteriously vanished a year ago.

https://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/observing-australias-weather

When you search old newspaper records you find quite a few articles about the heat during the years 1890 t0 1910 describing hundreds of deaths from heat and occurrences such as birds dropping from the sky dead.I don't see such reports today.

And the longest drought in recent Australian history is still the Federation drought which lasted from 1892-1906.

 

[drron]

Good idea - these science vs religion debates never go anywhere.


Some of the hysteria that this will be the solution to all our problems is really just quite an emotional load of rubbish, to be honest.

Hear, hear.

Unfortunately based on science however.

The boss misread the "app", it was an "incident" in Calwell, not a fire. I have sternly admonished her.

I can't even imagine admonishing the boss.

 

[Moody]

Sorry - forgot to attribute the quote properly.

"Some of the hysteria that this will be the solution to all our problems is really just quite an emotional load of rubbish, to be honest." - Steve Warrington, CEO of Victoria's Country Fire Authority

Other notable quotes from the same article on HRBs :-

"Have you seen a footpath on fire? No, because there is nothing there to burn." - Barnaby Joyce, Minister for Office Affairs

More facts (rather than half-truths and misrepresentations) can be found here : - Are hazard reduction burns effective in managing bushfires? The answer is complicated

 

[drron]

As I have posted on many occasions Moody.But you have left out firebreaks and firetrails as other methods of hazard reduction.
And as i have said and posted before Western Australia have put into practice adequate amounts of HRBs and all the other methods and have had a major reduction in fire intensities and area burnt.

On top of this the firies on the ground are overwhelmingly in favour of hazard reduction.Many think that the statements of recent Commissioners is a means of covering their butts as it was on their watch that fuel loads built up.

More importantly fire scientists are the ones urging hazard reduction including burns.As has been shown many times doubling the fuel loads doubles the fires speed and quadruples it's intensity.

And by the way i have sat down and talked with an indigenous fellow about their methods of burns.He was an indigenous National Parks ranger in Tasmania advising on hazard reduction burns from the early 70s to the early 90s.He was included in the crews conducting HRBs in the National Parks.He wasn't replaced but the previous Tassie Premier announced the intention to appoint 3 indigenous rangers to include advice on HRBs.

 

[get me outta here]

Seems that The Aus has outed another charity ... "The Red Cross is taking a break from social media after staff reported a security incident to Victoria Police. The charity has spent just $30m of the $115m it has raised and the PM isn’t impressed. “It is very important that the funds that have been raised by charitable groups, through the generosity of Australians, obviously get to people as quickly as it possibly can,” he said. “We are working with the state governments to assist the charities to do just that.” But will Morrison pass the same scrutiny over his own church? Horizon Church parishioners are questioning how the donations they’ve been encouraged to make to Australian Christian Churches are being spent. Financial statements show the group raised more than $2.8m last year but handed out just $78,474 in grants within Australia".

 

[Pushka]

Seems that The Aus has outed another charity ... "The Red Cross is taking a break from social media after staff reported a security incident to Victoria Police. The charity has spent just $30m of the $115m it has raised and the PM isn’t impressed. “It is very important that the funds that have been raised by charitable groups, through the generosity of Australians, obviously get to people as quickly as it possibly can,” he said. “We are working with the state governments to assist the charities to do just that.” But will Morrison pass the same scrutiny over his own church? Horizon Church parishioners are questioning how the donations they’ve been encouraged to make to Australian Christian Churches are being spent. Financial statements show the group raised more than $2.8m last year but handed out just $78,474 in grants within Australia".

I guess it depends on the information provided when making the donation.

 

[Flying mermaid]

After a lovely day I can now smell smoke.

Same here in lower Fadden, fire in Calwell I believe.

New fire in Namadgi- out of control at the moment but they are throwing a lot at it.

 

[p--and--t]

More facts (rather than half-truths and misrepresentations) can be found here : - Are hazard reduction burns effective in managing bushfires? The answer is complicated

I was most interested in these comments from those who have done intensive studies on the subject (My bolding)...

Experts emphasised that in extreme and catastrophic fire conditions, the surface fuel available for burning makes next to no difference to the level of a fire's intensity.

University of Melbourne associate professor Trent Penman, who studies bushfire behaviour,told Fact Check: "Prescribed burning effectiveness decreases with [increasing] FFDI; when you exceed an FFDI of about 50, you switch from fuel-dominated to a weather-dominated fire.

"At this point, while fuel has a small effect, it is overwhelmed by the weather."

Professor Bradstock agreed, pointing to the example of Victoria's Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 that claimed the lives of 173 people.

His team studied the aftermath of the fires which were associated with an FFDI of well above 100.

They found that even in the areas where fuel had been treated with planned burns less than five years prior, there was no measurable effect on the intensity of the fires.

PHOTO: Research has found that the intensity of the Black Saturday bushfires was not mitigated by hazard reduction burning. (AAP: Andrew Brownbill)

"At a level where we would have expected the fire intensity to be reduced to suppressible levels, we essentially found no effect," he told Fact Check.

"It's almost like a turbo-charging effect, when you have such incredibly high temperatures and very high winds that you only need a negligible amount of fuel to produce a fire intensity that is not suppressible."

The University of Tasmania's Professor Bowman said that in catastrophic conditions, such as those prevailing in the current Queensland and NSW bushfires, all "organic matter is going to burn".

"There's so much heat and strong winds that the fire is able to travel across landscapes regardless of whether they've been burnt previously. It doesn't affect the [fire] behaviour."

Professor Bowman described embers rushing ahead of the fire front, passing over cleared areas to find available fuel like a "heat gun blasting sparks at incredibly high speed".

"It's a wind-driven phenomenon," he said.

"[E]ven if you can treat everything at a maximum level, it's still not going to give you the benefit under catastrophic fire weather conditions."

 

[drron]

Sorry but the link from Moody is the ABC fact checking unit.They do not give all the facts.Only WA has ever done prescribed burning at the recommended levels which in virtually every inquiry has been 5-8% of vulnerable land.After 1961 WA did HRBs at 8% and the result was a massive decline in fire intensity and area burnt.

In the examples posted by p..and..t being the current fires and 2009 no where near enough HRBs had been done so how you could deduce that the HRBs had been no help is of course nonsense.
During the 2009 there was as well inadequate fire breaks and inacessable fire trails.
After 2009 Victoria set a target of 5% HRBs which was not met so they decreased the target to 3% but after a couple of years no longer published a target.

In NSW HRBs in National Parks have been less than 2% for years.As well inadequate fire breaks and blocked fire trails.
You need the who;e suite of hazard reduction to be successful in reducing fire intensity and spread.

Here is another ABC link with the predictions from David Packham,who studied fires for most of his life,said that conditions in 2017 were worse than 2009.

Life after Black Saturday: 'Victoria's never been in a more dangerous situation'

Veteran bushfire scientist David Packham fears Victoria is more vulnerable to a bushfire tragedy than ever before, despite what the state learnt in the years following Black Saturday.

www.abc.net.au

Back to the WA experience.When HRBs were as required-less area burnt.When it falls increased area burnt.Real world experience.
.

 

[p--and--t]

Sorry but the link from Moody is the ABC fact checking unit.They do not give all the facts.Only WA has ever done prescribed burning at the recommended levels which in virtually every inquiry has been 5-8% of vulnerable land.After 1961 WA did HRBs at 8% and the result was a massive decline in fire intensity and area burnt.

In the examples posted by p..and..t being the current fires and 2009 no where near enough HRBs had been done so how you could deduce that the HRBs had been no help is of course nonsense.
During the 2009 there was as well inadequate fire breaks and inacessable fire trails.
After 2009 Victoria set a target of 5% HRBs which was not met so they decreased the target to 3% but after a couple of years no longer published a target.

In NSW HRBs in National Parks have been less than 2% for years.As well inadequate fire breaks and blocked fire trails.
You need the who;e suite of hazard reduction to be successful in reducing fire intensity and spread.

Here is another ABC link with the predictions from David Packham,who studied fires for most of his life,said that conditions in 2017 were worse than 2009.

Life after Black Saturday: 'Victoria's never been in a more dangerous situation'

Veteran bushfire scientist David Packham fears Victoria is more vulnerable to a bushfire tragedy than ever before, despite what the state learnt in the years following Black Saturday.

www.abc.net.au

Back to the WA experience.When HRBs were as required-less area burnt.When it falls increased area burnt.Real world experience.
View attachment 204723.

I don't believe anywhere in the "fact check" article did they state that HRBs are not effective in general, at least from my reading.

The article points out that in particular circumstances (eg long term drought and extreme weather events) where the rule of thumb index exceeds a certain level, then HRBs were not effective.

This leads to the question (aside from whether HRBs should be conducted) is how to prepare for these special events in special circumstances.

 

[drron]

But if HRBs are done correctly you don't get the real high intensity fires due to far less fuel.Again refer to the WA fire.The 1961 fire had fatalities and was a high intensity fire.Proper hazard reduction and great decrease in areas burnt.

 

[p--and--t]

But if HRBs are done correctly you don't get the real high intensity fires due to far less fuel.Again refer to the WA fire.The 1961 fire had fatalities and was a high intensity fire.Proper hazard reduction and great decrease in areas burnt.

drron, I fully understand you have a razor focus in one particular area and probably more well read on the subject than I will ever be.

However, I will stand back and listen and observe how things play out with a forensic analysis by experts in the area of what happened in the last 12 months.

As per aviation incidents, something is learnt from every incident. Reiterating ad infinitum about what shoulda happened and what wasn't done doesn't add to my knowledge of the situation.

 

[rogerkambah]

New fire in Namadgi- out of control at the moment but they are throwing a lot at it.

Strange that a fire would 'just start'. Don't think there were any storms for dry lightning, ember attack doesn't seem possible.

Could it be some moronic idiot who thought the firies didn't have enough to do?

 

[Flying mermaid]

Strange that a fire would 'just start'. Don't think there were any storms for dry lightning, ember attack doesn't seem possible.

Could it be some moronic idiot who thought the firies didn't have enough to do?

Don’t know - I was just watching a news conference with Barr and Georgina Whelan and she said they would be investigating the cause but had too much else to worry about at the moment. So clearly not obvious.

She also said the next week would be challenging with high temperatures. Hope it doesn't go to Tharwa or Tidbinbilla. .

 

[Pushka]

Our weather will be challenging on Tuesday through Saturday. It’s been windy but cooler for the last few days. But they are forecasting up to 25 mls on Saturday and Thunderstorms which for Adelaides storm water will mean flooding, assuming that much rain actually falls.