Cancelled flights & waivers due to Cyclone Alfred

Kefci2000

Kefci2000

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Watching Youtube "Julia Flights" live from BNE.
BNE still operating and latest is that it will remain open tomorrow morning.
Think winds are meant to upgrade from gale force to destructive on Thu afternoon

Qantas just got 332 VH-EBR out empty to SYD. Had been in the hanger for some time.
 
Latest update from Virgin:

Updates on operations
  • Brisbane, QLD (BNE) – Virgin Australia will operate a limited schedule to and from Brisbane Airport before 6pm on Thursday (6 March).
  • Gold Coast, QLD (OOL) – Flights suspended from this afternoon (5 March) through to midday Friday (7 March).
  • Ballina, NSW (BNK) – Flights to and from Ballina (BNK) are suspended until Friday (7 March).
Looks like they've zeroed out all flights departing Brisbane after 4pm tomorrow.
 
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8pm update. Now saying it will be a category 1 cyclone when it crosses the coast.
 

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I'm due to fly MEL-BNE 6AM Saturday then join Pacific Encounter to the Pacific islands. It's all looking rather interesting at the moment. Will take it as it comes and hope for the best
 
11pm update is out, no real change to the forecast tracking, but not expected to cross the coast (currently North Stradbroke Island) until Friday night. It is likely to cross as cat 2.

drron said:
8pm update. Now saying it will be a category 1 cyclone when it crosses the coast.
Click to expand...

Depends what you class as coast, as when it's due to cross at North Stradbroke it will be cat 2 (as it was on the 8pm update) but that will make the cyclone lose intensity rapidly so by the time it gets to the suburbs it will be cat 1 or a tropical low.
 
justinbrett said:
Depends what you class as coast, as when it's due to cross at North Stradbroke it will be cat 2 (as it was on the 8pm update) but that will make the cyclone lose intensity rapidly so by the time it gets to the suburbs it will be cat 1 or a tropical low.
Click to expand...

Perhaps not entirely true. (Let me explain my reasoning.) Sure, while the most intense winds are at the eye (but not in the eye.. it's calm in the eye...), the red line shows the "Destructive Winds" area, and it easily reaches well into the suburbs before the eye arrives. So depending how slow or fast moving it is toward the coast once that red line arrives, this is what will determine how much damage will be inflicted across the suburbs.

Apologies for my rudimentary copy/paste job, but hopefully this diagram shows what I mean:
alfred.png
 
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kevrosmith said:
Perhaps not entirely true. (Let me explain my reasoning.) Sure, while the most intense winds are at the eye (but not in the eye.. it's calm in the eye...), the red line shows the "Very Destructive Winds" area, and it easily reaches well into the suburbs before the eye arrives. So depending how slow or fast moving it is toward the coast once that red line arrives, this is what will determine how much damage will be inflicted across the suburbs.

Apologies for my rudimentary copy/paste job, but hopefully this diagram shows what I mean:
View attachment 434321
Click to expand...

Absolutely, wasn't commenting on the lack of severity, just saying when it crosses the "mainland coast" (as opposed to the coast on North Stradbroke) it will be a lower intensity; now that refers to the eye and is how meteorologists refer to cyclone positions and tracking - that doesn't mean the mainland is spared from destructive winds.

In actual fact it looks like the Gold Coast is going to get it the worst, as due to the clockwise direction the winds are strongest south of the eye. And you can see that because the red circle is mostly south of the eye.
 
justinbrett said:
In actual fact it looks like the Gold Coast is going to get it the worst, as due to the clockwise direction the winds are strongest south of the eye. And you can see that because the red circle is mostly south of the eye.
Click to expand...

Yes, exactly. I was (fortunate) to be north of both Larry and Yasi, and the winds were actually blowing from the south, and then from the west for most of the time once they got close to the coast and crossed the coast.

Without the eye over water, it should dissipate fairly quickly, however, Cyclone Larry (I think it was) crossed at Innisfail and then went for a sight-seeing tour up toward the Atherton Tablelands and wrecked havoc up there before finally extinguishing, so they don't always break-apart at land-fall.
 
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Aussie_flyer said:
I'm due to fly MEL-BNE 6AM Saturday then join Pacific Encounter to the Pacific islands. It's all looking rather interesting at the moment. Will take it as it comes and hope for the best
Click to expand...
As far as the winds are concerned you should be fine. At midnight on Friday Sustained wind speeds are forecast to be 30KPH and then gradually lessening. maximum gusts 44kph.
It will depend though how much damage is done to the infrastructure as BNE is in the area of higher wind speeds. Though maximum gusts are forecast to be just lower than 130kph. The major problem won't be the winds but the amount of rain that occurs before and after the cyclone.

Just remember Cyclone Tracy 50 years ago. it was Category 5 so wind gusts over 280Kph occur.
 
drron said:
As far as the winds are concerned you should be fine. At midnight on Friday Sustained wind speeds are forecast to be 30KPH and then gradually lessening. maximum gusts 44kph.
It will depend though how much damage is done to the infrastructure as BNE is in the area of higher wind speeds. Though maximum gusts are forecast to be just lower than 130kph. The major problem won't be the winds but the amount of rain that occurs before and after the cyclone.

Just remember Cyclone Tracy 50 years ago. it was Category 5 so wind gusts over 280Kph occur.
Click to expand...

The cyclone is due to hit Friday night so I think you might be understating the winds a little! I’d say very likely flights will be cancelled Friday night and Saturday morning, as the were Thursday night and Friday morning with the earlier forecast.

Also Tracy was cat 4.
 
Saturday flights to and from Gold Coast don't look likely, do they?

I'm still holding out for cancellation by the airline and refund. I don't want a travel credit.
 
Aussie_flyer said:
I'm due to fly MEL-BNE 6AM Saturday then join Pacific Encounter to the Pacific islands. It's all looking rather interesting at the moment. Will take it as it comes and hope for the best
Click to expand...
I don’t like your chances, latest modelling will see a new track map released shortly showing the crossing taking place Saturday morning now.
 
I was originally planning on flying VA at 8am from BNE to MEL on Friday. Ended up flying down with QF Wednesday morning instead and holding out for VA to cancel the flight so I can get a refund on my lite booking.. Cancellation text came through last night so made the right call to leave earlier.
 

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