I've been skimming this thread for a while, but resisted getting involved. IME most people are not interested in actually discussing the issue but are welded to their positions.
dfcatch, you state that you agree with the science but disagree with the proposed method of tackling the problem. What then would be your preferred approach? Is Abbott's direct action policy viable? Do you think he would actually go through with it, were he in power?
Regards,
Jehane
I don't spend a single moment worrying about the oppositions' (or anyone else's) policy at this point in time.
IMHO - I consider my political antenna to be reasonably astute, and the political observer in me resists wasting time on thinking about the merits of an opposition policy this far out from an election. Personally - any opposition this far out from an election is likely to refine (probably majorly) any policy position on the whole portfolio of issues a lot closer to election time. That will be the time that I will analyse the policies accordingly. (And yes - if it were the ALP in opposition - my approach would be the same).
The debate is not a case of choosing between Labor or the Coalitions policies (at this point - come an election - it may well be). But the fact is, failing a by-election, a backbench revolt or Gillard falling on her sword, I imagine the carbon tax will be a fait accompli more than a year prior to the next election. Assuming this to be the case - the policy debate will have advanced significantly (read - the Coalition will have refined a sensible political approach to the issue), and that will be the time to scrutinise the opposition's plan and evaluate accordingly.
In regards to your question about my position on the "science" and global warming generally..... To summarise:
1/ I (like most sensible people) believe the planet is warming;
2/ I don't believe the science is settled on how much of the warming is caused/exacerbated by man vs natural cycle;
3/ I question man's ability to brake or reverse global warming (ie. if man ceased to exist tomorrow - it's possible that warming will continue regardless of zero emissions). Do not confuse this with scepticism - it's a legitimate question that has not (and probably can not) be accurately answered.
Now - the remainder of the questions get so confused and intertwined that it makes sensible debate quite difficult.
A/ Let's assume for a moment - that there is bipartisan support for "doing something" (ie. Let's pretend the "Carbon Tax" doesn't exist, and Abbott and Gillard are passing the peace pipe and getting along)...
The question is now firmly on the issue of the science; what has been happening; what is likely to happen; and what should we do about it???
Kyoto, the IPCC and Copenhagen are good examples of this. Now let's remember that Copenhagen was meant to be the duck's nuts of universal worldwide agreement for a solution. It failed - spectacularly.
So we are left with "broad agreement" that there is a problem - but no agreement that we should do something, let alone "what" to do about it.
We still have two intertwined, yet separate issues - the credibility of the science, and the political problem of what to do and how to do it.
B/ The credibility of the science....
Now - I'm not knocking the overall theme of the planet warming and man (most likely) having some level of contribution to this. BUT - the exaggeration of findings (eg. manipulation of Hadley data), over the top alarmist predictions from people like Flannery etc, do nothing to win Joe Public over to the view that "the science is settled", or "the science is beyond doubt".. Actually - the truth is - just as some of the sceptics are off the planet, many of the "pro-warming" camp have done a good job at bringing the credibility of the science into doubt. The alarmists only have themselves to blame for sceptics getting the airtime that they do. It only takes one over-the-top "it will never rain again in Victoria" type prediction to discredit everything that person stands for and has said (even if 99% of comments are on the mark).
Now Joe Public is starting to take all these alarmist predictions with a grain of salt.
C/ The political dilemma....
Political power (success) is generally measured by how much support you have for your agenda. (I don't want to get into a political science debate please - I'm sure everyone understands my point here).
This doesn't mean you have to have popular support for every individual measure - but you do need a decent buffer of general agenda support to politically succeed at "support-questionable" policies.
As an army of future political science students will no doubt analyse to death - it's pretty obvious that the Gillard Government vis-a-vis the Carbon Tax will be a lesson in how not to govern.
But let's stay more generalised....
The general public's appetite or interest in taking action on global warming has waned siginificantly since the Copenhagen collapse, and the polls are reflecting this. Personally, I also believe that the questions of the credibility of some alarmists, and the Hadley scandal are also contributing to the general public taking the "science" with a grain of salt nowadays too.
Add to this that in 2007 - the economy was tracking well, everything was pretty much hunky dory. There was consternation over Workchoices, housing affordability etc, but generally things were tracking well and that afforded people the indulgence to think about peripheral issues. Hence issues like global warming, reconciliation etc were back on the agenda.
It's a different political environment now - there is only one issue in the publics' mind - and that's the economy, the economy, and the economy. "Will I have a job next week?", "Can I make the mortgage payment?", "How on earth am I going to pay for my impending retirement?".
IMHO - the carbon-tax-horse bolted 3 years ago.
So - in summary - we are left with an electorate who probably no longer ranks action on global warming in their top list of priorities, a minority government which by definition has limited real political power, and a global warming debate with credibility questions on all sides.
You asked me what we should do?
IMHO - which I believe the general majority of centrist voters would agree with - I would take a slowly slowly approach.
That means continued investment in sustainable technologies (and that doesn't mean blindly funding expensive renewables - although I am still open to gowatson sponsoring my SC earn for the next year so that I can achieve WP1 and I'll learn all there is to know about renewables), it means clean-coal technology, a serious debate about nuclear energy, continued incentives for the average Joe to (of their own volition) reduce energy / take advantage of solar subsidies etc.
I would not - overhaul the economy with such a radical step as being proposed.
I don't believe that imposing a punitive tax that permeates every level of the economy is the best way forward in the current circumstances.
Now you will no doubt ask me - "What IF the alarmists are right? What IF we have to take dramatic action RIGHT NOW or else it will be too late?"
Fair questions - but the premise only exists IF the worst case scenarios turn out to be right. And based on past performance (as all science is) - I'm not prepared to bet and gamble my childrens' economic future on it.
In 50 years we can all look back and we'll be able to see the wonderful benefits of hindsight..... Maybe my approach is wrong..... But maybe it isn't. And I'm pretty sure that my crystal ball is just as accurate as yours.
Ultimately - it's a political problem - and right now, the clear majority of the electorate don't support the proposal at this present time. Personally, if the Coalition wins the election (which is not guaranteed) - it won't be because they have a "better" global warming solution, it will be because the government gets voted out. Tony Abbott could scrap his direct action plan and simply say that action is "on the back-burner until global agreement is reached" and I don't believe his numbers would change dramatically.
DISCLAIMER: My opinion on the issues of the carbon tax and global warming is not party political. My views would be exactly the same if it were a Coalition government in power and Abbott was proposing the carbon tax.
And me opposing the carbon tax doesn't mean I support "direct action" or whatever else may be proposed. I, like all other voters at this time, are not required to assess anyone other than the government of the day.
Oppositions don't win elections - governments lose them.