Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[Pushka]

No the first wave was considered to be a milder form. Healthy people were not as affected as the second wave.

That isn’t what my research has shown. The initial wave was just as deadly and attacking healthy people in the US.

 

[Quickstatus]

I

That isn’t what my research has shown. The initial wave was just as deadly and attacking healthy people in the US.

IIRC it was the second wave that was more deadly.
Look up 3 waves of Spanish flu, there should be graphs somewhere in google

 

[I love to travel]

You might like to edit date to 1918 rather than 2018

 

[Pushka]

I

IIRC it was the second wave that was more deadly.

Because of the weakness of the people that were attacked in the second wave and not simply because the virus had become more virulent.

Until we have an effective vaccine against this strain we do not know enough to be complacent. And even with that vaccine we do not know how fast and to what extent this virus will mutate. It is only in the future that we will know how this will all play out. So let’s just do some risk management hey?

 

[Quickstatus]

Here is an article about the Spanish flu which might shed some answers. Much remains unknown. I sit in the camp that believes that it’s not the same virus causing all 3 peaks.

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused ≈50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[serfty]

Yes thats my point - the first wave wasn’t that deadly. It is only with hindsight that we know that the deadliest period was the second wave, when it circulated more widely. We are currently in the first wave. There may or may not be a second deadly wave. It is suggested that the second wave was deadlier simply because by then it reached the war-sickened and malnourished and incredibly cramped troops and people of WW1 and they didn’t stand a chance.

The "Spanish Flu" killed between 50 and 100 Million people.

Spanish flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[tgh]

Some of the pigeon settling is a bit .. er ….disturbing

We have an emerging new bug loose that is seeking and finding opportunities in its new world of endless hosts with o immunity .
We are encouraged to feel comfortable with a best case scenario of doubling the flu deaths ( noting that we have flu vaccines )

I have proposed thoughtful preparation and calm and rational consideration of what if scenario's.
Nothing has changed my advice … other than a strong sense that many folks are not really survivors by nature.. c'est la vie...

 

[Quickstatus]

We are encouraged to feel comfortable with a best case scenario of doubling the flu deaths ( noting that we have flu vaccines )

Not necessarily. I still can’t explain why with the significant annual deaths from influenza each year we all seem complacent until now.
the Flu vaccines are a prediction of the upcoming virus. In recent years the prediction has been wrong

 

[tgh]

I don't think folks are complacent, I think they are resigned.
Perhaps this is the rebuttal to my previous argument… humans are ( like all animals ) fatalists.

We live with viruses ( why are they not virii..much more elegant ..) all the time , how often are we unwell as we fight off some unknown interloper.
Most of the time the bugs fail , perhaps because we carry significant immune memory.
Crossover bugs are where the danger lies because we have no specific immune response.

 

[Quickstatus]

This is a huge development

Previously only the genetic sequence was known.

Growing the actual virus in a lab from a patient with 2019-nCOV helps with development of an antibody test so we can look back and see who has been exposed but not exhibited symptoms, and can be used as a positive control to make sure the current tests are valid/verified and that they are specific and sensitive enough.

Also importantly a huge leap toward creating an effective vaccine and other molecular/antibody therapies

 

[AisleSeat]

Seems people in HK are cutting off the bottom of big water bottles and wearing them to protect themselves?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1222270324705779715

 

[Quickstatus]

Protect against what?

Actually that would be excellent protection during Magpie season. Other than that....

 

[I love to travel]

This is a huge development

Previously only the genetic sequence was known.

Growing the actual virus in a lab from a patient with 2019-nCOV helps with development of an antibody test so we can look back and see who has been exposed but not exhibited symptoms, and can be used as a positive control to make sure the current tests are valid/verified and that they are specific and sensitive enough.

Also importantly a huge leap toward creating an effective vaccine and other molecular/antibody therapies

That is great news. It does make you wonder though if we put the same amount of effort into researching things like autism or MS what the outcome would be.

 

[Quickstatus]

Most research is limited by funding.

Not surprised that the actual virus has been grown so quickly. The expertise is not rare. Other labs around the world would have been doing the same.

But still there is no vaccine against SARS-COV

 

[Pushka]

The "Spanish Flu" killed between 50 and 100 Million people.

Spanish flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yes. That’s not the debate though.

 

[drron]

Later evidence reveals the first cases of the "Spanish"flu were actually in Northern China in November 2017-it was found at the end of 1918 it was the same virus as the August 2018 in the rear British camps.There were pigs and poultry raised at these camps which initially got the blame.But there were up to 90000 Chinese labourers working in close proximity to these camps.

The first western death was in the USA in January 2018.He was a recently returned soldier.
From August 2018 to December 2018 the deaths were running at ~ 32000 per week.The flu killed more in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDs in 24 years.

The most interesting fact is how the virus became called the Spanish Flu.The pandemics most serious phase correlated with the last months of the Great War.That meant deaths in the military weren't published due to the censorship rules.But when the flu moved from France to Spain which was neutral and the Spanish King came down with the flu it was published quickly hence the Spanish flu.

 

[p--and--t]

Later evidence reveals the first cases of the "Spanish"flu were actually in Northern China in November 2017-it was found at the end of 1918 it was the same virus as the August 2018 in the rear British camps.There were pigs and poultry raised at these camps which initially got the blame.But there were up to 90000 Chinese labourers working in close proximity to these camps.

The first western death was in the USA in January 2018.He was a recently returned soldier.
From August 2018 to December 2018 the deaths were running at ~ 32000 per week.The flu killed more in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDs in 24 years.

The most interesting fact is how the virus became called the Spanish Flu.The pandemics most serious phase correlated with the last months of the Great War.That meant deaths in the military weren't published due to the censorship rules.But when the flu moved from France to Spain which was neutral and the Spanish King came down with the flu it was published quickly hence the Spanish flu.

Maybe some of those dates are a hundred years out?

 

[tgh]

Goodness you are observant p'n t…. sharp as … well done…..

 

[Flying mermaid]

Apparently Australia is going to evacuate from Wuhan and send to Christmas Island for quarantine. Seems a sensible precaution

 

[suze2000]

Wait, isn't that Sri Lankan family from QLD still there? What about their safety?