Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[Pushka]

The reaction to this new virus is totally different to SARS and the Swine Flu episodes.Can't remember that the restrictions on travel were so severe.
On top of that I would have been in trouble if I used the presence of this virus as I did with swine flu.We travelled on Air Asia in Thailand at the height of the epidemic.I can remember a few wearing masks.But a Russian couple in front of us reclined on taxiing and although asked politely used the old no speak English to remain reclined.So a couple of coughs from me and the comment-"Bl**dy Swine flu" and they immediately sat upright and didn't recline again.I would expect to be met by the authories on arriving this time.

During the swine flu we had two family members test positive. One was feeling like they had a bad flu, the other one was just unwell and the only reason he was tested is because his mother works in a public hospital. The one with the bad flu developed it two weeks before we were due to fly to Bali, and Bali was on full scale alert for incoming flights. Thankfully family member improved significantly and was well two days before we travelled. Her temp was back to normal at the same time but I did give her a couple of Panadol before landing as they were checking temps. None of us even though we’d been in contact with her when ill, developed anything. The other family member who was mildly unwell had been at school just prior.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Is it just me, or is the whole Coronavirus thing starting to fizzle out?

I’d love to hope so but can’t see it appearing in the numbers yet. 2013 SARS epidemic ran from November 2002 to July 2003. This nCoV has infected 4 times as many people in ~2 months, which would obviously add to the detection and response challenge, along with the longer assumed incubation period.

As time goes on the news coverage will reduce, along with the novelty value of the story. People get used to the idea.

just comparing with the numbers on my envelope from a few days ago (China numbers for the day won’t come in till this afternoon, so not 100% comparable with rest of world)

Hubei province 13,252>24,953, up 88%
Rest of China 7,231>9,667, up 34%
Rest of world 194>343, up 77%

Had me wondering what is behind the lower growth in numbers in the rest of China. Obviously there are many variables that get in the way of correlating case report numbers with any underlying spread.

Cheers skip

 

[Tamerton]

I think China are under reporting and people will hide it if they’re sick. I think there will be thousands of cases in China, not all lethal though.

 

[tgh]

deniers please ignore the following….


The spread of the coronavirus around the world will be much harder to contain than the SARS epidemic 17 years ago, according to a world-leading microbiologist who has told countries outside China to brace for deaths.
Neil Ferguson, director of Imperial College London’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, said infected people who were displaying mild symptoms were likely to be mainly responsible for the spread of the virus in China.

He estimated only 10 per cent of cases of the coronavirus were being detected in China, and only a quarter of cases in countries around the world.


“We estimate that there are maybe up to 50,000 new infections a day occurring in China, which is much larger than the official case numbers,” he said.

“As to the overall effectiveness of control measures, it’s hard to evaluate. If there’s a lot of community transmission going on, which I think there is, it will be very hard to control this epidemic in the same way as we controlled the SARS epidemic.

“Identifying as many cases as possible, as early as possible … and isolating them is how we managed to control the SARS outbreak.

“Whether those measures will be as effective in this case remains to be seen. This virus has a much wider range of severity of symptoms.

“Quite a lot of people are being infected that might have quite mild respiratory disease, may not even seek healthcare for it. If those people are transmitting, then it will be hard to stop transmission overall.”

There have so far been only two deaths from coronavirus outside mainland China, one in The Philippines and one in Hong Kong. But Professor Ferguson said that number would grow in coming weeks.

“People with severe cases will be in intensive care maybe for weeks,” he said.

“We think the delay from when somebody develops symptoms to when they might die is as long as 20 days or longer.

“So the fact we haven’t seen many deaths in travellers outside mainland China so far is not terribly reassuring.”

 

[Pushka]

I think China are under reporting and people will hide it if they’re sick. I think there will be thousands of cases in China, not all lethal though.

Which then would change the current death rate to below 2% depending on what it is they are deciding to hide.

 

[ric_melb]

CE; I see two problems with your concept of heading to PEK next Sunday 16 Feb.

1. If you do go you will have to self isolate yourself for 14 days on your return to Australia.
2. If you do go you may not be in Australia on 19 Feb to enjoy dinner at the Olive Tree.
Even if you get back for 19 Feb, it is unlikely you should attend the dinner.

 

[I love to travel]

I think China are under reporting and people will hide it if they’re sick. I think there will be thousands of cases in China, not all lethal though.

I agree but given we are passing the two week lockdown period in theory rest of China should be decreasing also.

 

[serfty]

and depending on the deal, if any, the UK makes with the EU, EC261 won't apply to any flight departing LHR by the end of the year.

Oh ok then, that wouldn’t work then. I thought EC261 applied to flights operated by a EU based carrier flying into the EU.

Actually, unless there is UK legislative enhancement (unlikely), then little in the UK in respect to Air Passenger Rights Regulation/EU261 will change.

Quoting a FlyerTalk member who is somewhat of an expert on the topic:

Now that Brexit has occurred, will BA operated flights still be covered under EC261? How about flights departing the UK on other (ie American) carriers?

No changes, EC261 has long been UK law and will remain so until Parliament changes the law. There is no such law change in the Queen's Speech, nor is there anything being drafted.

It [EU261] applies to UK, EU and where applicable non-EU carriers, there are no changes at all. The only thing that could change is that from 1 January 2021 future judgments of the CJEU will not necessarily be binding in the UK, they may require an appellate court in the UK to give a judgement or endorsement. This appellate court may well regard the CJEU's analysis as persuasive.

So barring future legislative changes, a BA flight departing CDG will be subject to the same/identical air passenger rights regulation as a BA flight departing LGW.

Yes and barring any hypothetical future divergence of judicial interpretation between UK and (most of) the rest of Europe.

 

[drron]

tgh I have no problem with that assessment.We certainly do not know the complete story with this virus.Certainly with the flu some have no symptoms or very mild symptoms so they won't see anyone to get a swab.
Just to illustrate is this morning's OMAAT email contained this.
"The timing of this gap in travel worked out because Ford has a cold, and I'm sure I'll have a cold soon enough too, because that's just how it usually works out. "

Weekly Review: February 8, 2020

12 years of OMAAT, card bonuses ending soon, how the novel coronavirus is impacting travel, plus more news from the week!

onemileatatime.com

Now these 2 have just had a visit to Taiwan though they only flew the Taiwanese airlines.But with someone who is on a plane so frequently shouldn't they be at least tested for corona virus.The chances are not high that it is the cause of the colds but the risks are high if it is.Not trying to shame them as this is the way 99%+ of the population will behave.

 

[teammongo]

Underreporting or under testing decreases the case fatality rate (CFR).
On the other hand, a prolonged time in care till death will do the opposite and increase your CFR.

 

[Flying mermaid]

A Chinese friend alerted me to this video. It’s interesting, although I am a bit concerned it might be fake news I wouldn’t watch it all, but the two clips at the beginning were interesting to get some (possible) insight to what it is like in Wuhan.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Valid points ric long with about a dozen other matters under consideration

 

[I love to travel]

A Chinese friend alerted me to this video. It’s interesting, although I am a bit concerned it might be fake news I wouldn’t watch it all, but the two clips at the beginning were interesting to get some (possible) insight to what it is like in Wuhan.

Oh dear if true heaven help those poor people.

 

[amaroo]

Oh dear if true heaven help those poor people.

Kudos for that bloke being very upfront. Also a great way to avoid filling stadiums with the sick.... helps to keep the headcount down.

 

[Pushka]

Oh dear if true heaven help those poor people.

But it’s a quarantine station. It’s designed for healthy people to come in and be isolated from the virus and is not a treatment centre. Goodness knows how long they will have to stay?

 

[drron]

Underreporting or under testing decreases the case fatality rate (CFR).
On the other hand, a prolonged time in care till death will do the opposite and increase your CFR.

But that is just statistics.Sure if all cases are reported the fatality rate goes down but there is no effect on the numbers who have died.
As well if those with only mild symptoms are not tested they will go on in all likely hood to infect others so the numbers dying will increase even though the fatality rate goes down.

 

[Flying mermaid]

But it’s a quarantine station. It’s designed for healthy people to come in and be isolated from the virus and is not a treatment centre. Goodness knows how long they will have to stay?

Except if the video from the elderly woman in there is true the people aren’t all that healthy. It is for people with the virus but who are currently well enough to walk and look after themselves to be isolated so they don’t spread it - doesn’t look like they are getting much more than basic treatment. If they are then moved from there to a proper hospital if they become seriously ill then I guess it works.

 

[p--and--t]

Poor analysis aside, where did the “Caucasian” information come from?

Interesting you should ask that. When I went back in to find the article this morning, it had disappeared and been replaced with "Chinese american in their sixties". Yet another article says "a 60yo American". Yet another says "reported to be 60yo woman with pre-existing conditions". And another says a "first reported 60yo non-Chinese" and "The American man died on Thursday in Wuhan, epicenter of the virus outbreak in the central Chinese province of Hubei, a U.S. embassy spokesman said" (https://www. physiciansweekly .com/ american-dies-of-coronavirus/).

Doesn't fill me with confidence any of the reports can be relied upon as being fully accurate. Maybe a more accurate description will emerge over the coming week.

Seems there may not as yet be a Caucasian death from 2019-nCov.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Oh ok then, that wouldn’t work then. I thought EC261 applied to flights operated by a EU based carrier flying into the EU.

It does. Going back to your original post, your PVG-LHR flight (only) would fall within the prima facie scope of EU261. But the airline might have a legitimate excuse for ‘extraordinary circumstances’ in this case.

They would still probably owe you a duty of care... accommodation and meals. But as you aren’t already in China that probably also doesn’t apply.

 

[Pushka]

So why do they say healthy people only if they are already positive? Symptoms don’t show for a few days so this is a real hot mess then!