Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[Tamerton]

Here is a medical paper that explains a lot about the disease

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

we are booked for a cruise on the 15 March on the quarantine ship. The have cancelled cruises up until the 4 March and we are watching and waiting to see what happens.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well hopefully one upside should be increased handwashing.

So less problems with flu, gastro etc.

 

[get me outta here]

NPR was suggesting that every time the quarantined ship got a new infected person identified, they had to start the 14 days again. I guess that makes sense but how awful for them.

Here is a medical paper that explains a lot about the disease

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

we are booked for a cruise on the 15 March on the quarantine ship. The have cancelled cruises up until the 4 March and we are watching and waiting to see what happens.

 

[p--and--t]

Wondering if this is payback for Australia's refusal of entry to Chinese citizens from China who were mid air last Sat when the ban on entry was announced, and then denied entry when they landed in Australia?

Second evacuation flight delayed, as Chinese authorities fail to grant clearance

Australians waiting to be evacuated from Wuhan have been told by DFAT their flight has not been approved by Chinese authorities and to return to their accommodation.

www.smh.com.au

Epidemic or natural disaster or just day to day, politicians are all the same, their own skin, quid pro quo and ego is more important than those who elected them (or didn't elect them in the case of China).

 

[Pushka]

NPR was suggesting that every time the quarantined ship got a new infected person identified, they had to start the 14 days again. I guess that makes sense but how awful for them.

There’s a bit of conjecture about that. Some say yes, some say no. Japan is sticking with the original 14 days but WHO says something else. That uncertainty and possibility would be doing my head in.

 

[k_sheep]

This medico has been working closely with the public health physicians and microbiologists, in turn guided by WHO. All information we've been given is basically publicly available, except knowing how many people are being tested - which isn't exactly exciting news. Plus knowing more about the capacity for testing, the updated testing methods becoming available, etc. Again, not exciting from a public point of view.

I'm part of the emergency response team for our health service district, and again, everything is publicly available - you can google your states 'flu pandemic plans if curious, which is what most of the procedures are being based upon. So, I'm afraid no interesting gossip or conspiracy to add from me!

 

[I love to travel]

This medico has been working closely with the public health physicians and microbiologists, in turn guided by WHO. All information we've been given is basically publicly available, except knowing how many people are being tested - which isn't exactly exciting news. Plus knowing more about the capacity for testing, the updated testing methods becoming available, etc. Again, not exciting from a public point of view.

I'm part of the emergency response team for our health service district, and again, everything is publicly available - you can google your states 'flu pandemic plans if curious, which is what most of the procedures are being based upon. So, I'm afraid no interesting gossip or conspiracy to add from me!

Thanks for your reply to the question. Any opinion on when this might peak and decline?

 

[k_sheep]

It's a tough one, much of the modelling is based on SARS and MERS which both appear more deadly than this. Also the Chinese travel patterns have vastly changed since 2003. Gut feeling, I think this will be much like a seasonal flu - it will probably be the dominant circulating respiratory virus in different regions for a few seasons. That will buy us enough time to get a vaccine which will hopefully curtail it markedly.

A confounding factor is seasonal flu is still circulating! We are still getting 1-2 positive 'flu A tests daily in our population. Plenty of RSV too. The measles cases are far more concerning as far as I'm concerned - so much more infectious, and serious complications in kids and young people.

I caught the swine flu in '09, not fun. After recovery I was working in ICU where young healthy people were getting wiped out by it which was hard to watch. Obviously I haven't treated anyone with this nCorV, but it appears to be milder than swine flu.

Didn't really answer your questions! But I guess my opinion is we've got a while to peak; in the meantime I think it's good practice for hospitals and health services to 'practice' their flu pandemic plans. And if it keeps measles at bay then that's a bonus!

 

[stoney]

Well hopefully one upside should be increased handwashing.

So less problems with flu, gastro etc.

nah, I will still use the washingmachine

 

[sjk]

NPR was suggesting that every time the quarantined ship got a new infected person identified, they had to start the 14 days again. I guess that makes sense but how awful for them.

Three more infections announced just now, so I guess we might find out soon.

Chinese woman in her 30s, US female in her 60s, US male in his 70s. Already off the ship and in hospital.

Japan's government-released information is starting to get a bit fuzzier about what further testing has been done since what was initially announced.

 

[get me outta here]

Apparently Christmas Island does not have the local testing kits which are due to arrive on Monday. But it seems as if they found someone there who may be affected and the samples sent offshore.

 

[moa999]

It's a tough one, much of the modelling is based on SARS and MERS which both appear more deadly than this.

Longer incubation though as I understand, which makes stopping it harder.

The number of people infected is much greater than SARS, even if SARS had a much higher (10% versus 2% mortality)

 

[stoney]

Longer incubation though as I understand, which makes stopping it harder.

The number of people infected is much greater than SARS, even if SARS had a much higher (10% versus 2% mortality)

But infected with what? It would appear that the coronavirus covers a multitude of viral infections. Is there a specific test for 2019 corV? If so is the test the one used to determine what strain of coronavirus is coming up into the state?

 

[Tamerton]

There’s is a specific test but is only available in specific labs, not everywhere.

 

[sjk]

Another example of why it would be unwise to take the official figures at face value:

Redirect Notice

The man in his sixties was suspected of having been infected with the coronavirus but due to difficulties in diagnosing the disease the cause of death was given as viral pneumonia

 

[RooFlyer]

Cases in Sth Korea reported as infected in Singapore:

3 new coronavirus cases in South Korea; 2 men had travelled to Singapore for conference

SEOUL: South Korea has confirmed three more cases of the novel coronavirus, including two men who had attended a business meeting at Singapore's Grand Hyatt hotel last month.South Korean media reported that they were in Singapore for work and came into contact with a Malaysian who has

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[PineappleSkip]

But infected with what? It would appear that the coronavirus covers a multitude of viral infections. Is there a specific test for 2019 corV? If so is the test the one used to determine what strain of coronavirus is coming up into the state?

Detection is right up there in the WHO’s guidelines. Health.gov.au have guidance for testing 2019-nCoV specifically which has been up for just on two weeks. Each of the big capitals had at least one facility a week ago, I suspect the capability would be a lot more broadly available now. Africa has gone from one lab with capability to test nCoV to six in the last week (obviously need more). Don’t understand your last question.

I see Health loaded a fact sheet for airline staff. This would be interesting, a shadow for anyone that is sick

Passengers or crew experiencing fever, sweats or chills should be separated from other travellers where possible as a precaution, with at least one spare seat on either side or a window seat with a spare seat next to them. Ideally, the row should be kept empty.

cheers skip

 

[p--and--t]

Been quietly contemplating in the background whether with this virus there are some unique characteristics or pattern that could be determined from the various media reporting.

• reporting originally said that only very elderly and those already sick were dying; then that was changed to reflect much younger people dying but still with the proviso of some pre-existing condition.
• then it was only Chinese travellers that were being detected overseas, so possibility not easily person to person transmission; but that changed when reports started coming in showing detections in shop assistants, others travelling in the same bus/ship

The main remaining correlations I saw are that all the deaths were in China (OK Philippines - but that was a Wuhan person on holidays); additionally Asian nations were initially largely the ones finding the most detections, or if not Asian nations, the persons detected were all Asian.

I began wondering, as all the reported deaths were of Asian lineage, if the virus was killing or at least more severely effecting persons with Asian lineage (something genetic).

However, that thought got largely squashed tonight as the first Caucasian death was reported from Wuhan (60-70yo USA citizen)

 

[Melburnian1]

I can't assess whether this report (below, in quoting far higher figures) is factual, close to it or exceedingly alarmist. Does anyone have any confirmation one way or the other (granted, it's in mainland China's interests to downplay numbers if they are really far higher than 'officially' released).

I like Taiwan (and have enjoyed visiting) but while I trust its democracy far more than mainland China's authoritarianism, the two nations are not exactly the best of friends:

Deleted pic claims 25k virus deaths

A death tally published by Chinese web giant Tencent before being quickly deleted has sparked debate over the true number of coronavirus victims and whether it is much higher than official statistics show.

www.news.com.au

 

[Melburnian1]

Been quietly contemplating in the background whether with this virus there are some unique characteristics or pattern that could be determined from the various media reporting...

However, that thought got largely squashed tonight as the first Caucasian death was reported from Wuhan (60-70yo USA citizen)

Interesting point. Can our resident medicos advise whether there are any 'viral' infections that persons of a particular lineage are more suspectible to, or conversely, are some ethnicities more resistant to such viruses? I've never heard of any but I don't spend time reading 'The Lancet' as most of the discussion would be above my head (or of no interest.)

Post automatically merged: Feb 8, 2020

...The main remaining correlations I saw are that all the deaths were in China (OK Philippines - but that was a Wuhan person on holidays); additionally Asian nations were initially largely the ones finding the most detections, or if not Asian nations, the persons detected were all Asian.

I began wondering, as all the reported deaths were of Asian lineage, if the virus was killing or at least more severely effecting persons with Asian lineage (something genetic).

However, that thought got largely squashed tonight as the first Caucasian death was reported from Wuhan (60-70yo USA citizen)

A Filipina maid also died in Dubai.