Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[dajop]

Some context on SIngapore, now up to 81 cases over 26 days and 29 discharges. For reference, statistically (from 2019 statistics), over 26 days, you would expect 8 lives lost and 546 people injured in traffic collisions. Some context of where things are at, although I know this thing has the potential to spread and amplify much more than road traffic incidents.

 

[Tropic]

What concerns me most is how many asymptomatic and thus untested carriers are bubbling away out there...

 

[Pushka]

What concerns me most is how many asymptomatic and thus untested carriers are bubbling away out there...

If that’s the case then maybe this thing is no more serious than the seasonal flu for the majority and not even that for many. People are carriers for all kinds of sinister illness that come to naught or can be deadly.

 

[tgh]

While it may be comforting to package Convid-19 as just another seasonal nuisance, the Chinese experience seems to indicate otherwise.
It seems to be highly virulent, our immune systems are neophytes to it , and it incurs a very broad range of symptoms and outcomes in its hosts

We have no idea of the bugs stability, longevity , ability to mutate in new hosts… we really know zilch.
We have been fighting the flu for ever; we spend heaps and know a little about it... but still the bug mutates, causes economic mayhem and kills the weak and compromised.
I hope our governments apparent public nonchalance is unfounded and that "Scotty" is not sanguine about accepting God's will……..if so heaven help us.

If a major clean out of all the immune compromised humans in the world is an acceptable outcome (sell your aged care shares) , then perhaps we should relax and go with the flow.

 

[Tropic]

After all, we all are born with a late onset terminal disease ...It comes down to how long one can fight off the symptoms

 

[Pushka]

While it may be comforting to package Convid-19 as just another seasonal nuisance, the Chinese experience seems to indicate otherwise.
It seems to be highly virulent, our immune systems are neophytes to it , and it incurs a very broad range of symptoms and outcomes in its hosts

We have no idea of the bugs stability, longevity , ability to mutate in new hosts… we really know zilch.
We have been fighting the flu for ever; we spend heaps and know a little about it... but still the bug mutates, causes economic mayhem and kills the weak and compromised.
I hope our governments apparent public nonchalance is unfounded and that "Scotty" is not sanguine about accepting God's will……..if so heaven help us.

If a major clean out of all the immune compromised humans in the world is an acceptable outcome (sell your aged care shares) , then perhaps we should relax and go with the flow.

Oh bugger, its been nice knowing you all! Lupus is the mother of auto immune illnesses!

 

[Melburnian1]

Seat map below of a flight from MEL-SIN today about 90 mins before departure. Won't say which airline, but it's a 777. I'm hoping that my flights to MEL later this week, and back a week later will have similar Plenty of room to isolate from other pax.

View attachment 206210

dajop, not suggesting you are incorrect re low seat occupancy but as discussed on AFF and in other fora, www.expertflyer.com and perhaps even airline seat maps for checkin tend to underestimate the number of travellers.

 

[Melburnian1]

CX has sent a bulk email re '10 steps' it is taking to alleviate travellers' worries about Covid_19.

Unusual for an airline to do this in such detail. CX has been really hard hit and must be having a huge number of cancellations from passengers as well as the publicised extensive flight frequency reductions, or abandonment of some routes.

It's worthwhile to open the '10 measures' as there's some new information, not just spin.

However unfortunately for CX, mainland China travel restrictions and mostly the perception that communist China has not been honest re this disease will put many off, including me, from either travelling to HKG or especially mainland China, or using HKG for a connection between Oz and elsewhere.

 

[Pushka]

CX has sent a bulk email re '10 steps' it is taking to alleviate travellers' worries about Covid_19.

Unusual for an airline to do this in such detail. CX has been really hard hit and must be having a huge number of cancellations from passengers as well as the publicised extensive flight frequency reductions, or abandonment of some routes.

It's worthwhile to open the '10 measures' as there's some new information, not just spin.

However unfortunately for CX, mainland China travel restrictions and mostly the perception that communist China has not been honest re this disease will put many off, including me, from either travelling to HKG or especially mainland China, or using HKG for a connection between Oz and elsewhere.

You cant use CX/Hong Kong as a transit port now if you want to travel to join a cruise.

 

[Melburnian1]

That graph would show the same illustration for Chinese tourism across the world. FWIW, not just Chinese. We've cancelled leisure trips to Singapore - I'm sure we're not the only ones..... look at the cancellation from SQ, CX and others.

Will be fun when the freight / shipping disruption hits the shelves.

My friend who is travelling on a group tour in Scandanavia claims that hoteliers in some of Europe such as Switzerland haven't had a noticeable reduction in room occupancy rates.

This doesn't strike me as correct, as mainland China banned group tours from departing. However he swears by it. Apart from Italy there doesn't seem to have been much media on how this virus is affecting European (i.e. non-UK) tourism.

 

[p--and--t]

My friend who is travelling on a group tour in Scandanavia claims that hoteliers in some of Europe such as Switzerland haven't had a noticeable reduction in room occupancy rates.

This doesn't strike me as correct, as mainland China banned group tours from departing. However he swears by it. Apart from Italy there doesn't seem to have been much media on how this virus is affecting European (i.e. non-UK) tourism.

My wet finger in the air with no facts to support it whatsoever; but if non-Chinese nationals (80% of world population) have elected to no longer travel to Asia generally in the next 2 months, conversely that boosts demand for domestic or non-Asian international services, accommodation, transport et al

Edit: Unrelated tit-bit. On my regular morning walks up until a couple of weeks ago there were up to 13 buses outside Fitzroy gardens most mornings filled with Chinese tourists, rarely saw any others. Last week less buses, but many visitors of European appearance and many US accents heard as I was walking by.

 

[dajop]

dajop, not suggesting you are incorrect re low seat occupancy but as discussed on AFF and in other fora, www.expertflyer.com and perhaps even airline seat maps for checkin tend to underestimate the number of travellers.

I travel on this flight regularly. Expertflyer (at the time check in closes) has proven to be extremely reliable for this flight. (nb: it is less reliable in the other direction as it is a two sector flight and when check in closes in DXB, you can no longer see the SIN-MEL seat map, even though departure is not for another 9 hrs).

 

[serfty]

dajop, not suggesting you are incorrect re low seat occupancy but as discussed on AFF and in other fora, www.expertflyer.com and perhaps even airline seat maps for checkin tend to underestimate the number of travellers.

I travel on this flight regularly. Expertflyer (at the time check in closes) has proven to be extremely reliable for this flight. (nb: it is less reliable in the other direction as it is a two sector flight and when check in closes in DXB, you can no longer see the SIN-MEL seat map, even though departure is not for another 9 hrs).

I agree with @dajop .... when expertflyer returns a QF seat map it is reflective of reality.

If airlines dont want a seat map to be publically available they block it on the GDS - in which case expertflyer will not return a seat map.

 

[dajop]

I agree with @dajop .... when expertflyer returns a QF seat map it is reflective of reality.

SQ is also quite accurate, once you know the rules that a blocked seat is actually assigned to someone unless it is in an exit/bulkhead row. (So accurate that once,sitting in the lounge I noticed my allocated economy seat had turned white on expert flyer, and a few minutes later changed back to occupied. A at the gate I was handed a boarding pass for J ....)

 

[Princess Fiona]

This is BA tomorrow SYD-SIN
Doesn’t look too empty to me. Will be interesting to see what arrivals are like at Changi.

 

[Melburnian1]

This is BA tomorrow SYD-SIN
Doesn’t look too empty to me. Will be interesting to see what arrivals are like at Changi...

Of the seats visible in whY, I counted 43 empty out of 192, so that's a seat occupancy percentage of 77.4 per cent. That doesn't inform us about yields. If all the seats not shown in whY were occupied, that would bump up the percentage somewhat.

Quite good though international airlines may like on average to fill 85 per cent of their seats.

February is low season for Australians departing (we've spent all our money/used up all our holidays between Christmas, or just before, and end of January) but is it high season for Poms returning to England, given our summer is nearing its end?

 

[Princess Fiona]

Quite good though international airlines may like on average to fill 85 per cent of their seats.

February is low season for Australians departing (we've spent all our money/used up all our holidays between Christmas, or just before, and end of January) but is it high season for Poms returning to England, given our summer is nearing its end?

No it isn’t high season for them. The schools go back in early January.

 

[Oubline]

I’m thinking of changing from my current CX award flights to Europe, onto MH instead via Kuala Lumpur, for August

Does anyone know how much to worry about the financial trouble MH is in? At this point my feeing is that they’re less likely to cancel than CX. It’s hard to know, I realise. I’m not at all worried about actually getting Coronavirus from a transfer at either HKG or KUL but more stressed about all the cancellations etc that are flowing from this.

 

[serfty]

I would not worry about MH - it would be unlikely the govmnt would let them fail.

FWIW, I have currently some flights booked for late August on them.

 

[OATEK]

This is BA tomorrow SYD-SIN
Doesn’t look too empty to me. Will be interesting to see what arrivals are like at Changi. View attachment 206239View attachment 206240

We are on BA16 in a month today, so will be interested to get any feedback on the Changi transit. It also looks very full in F, J & PE.