Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[banana boy]

They stuck the oxygen tube into my nose, and turned up the level so that I could breathe. Initially, it was one-litre/min, later it was changed to two-, four-, and six-litres/min. But because my lungs were not functioning well, it did not work. I remembered vividly the day I had extreme difficulty in breathing, and felt that I was dying. I thought: “Am I dying?”

The doctors and nurses at the ICU acted swiftly. At that time, I could not move but heard their conversation clearly. A doctor said, "Don’t worry, we will insert a tube to help you in your breathing".

When I came out from ICU, my husband told me that he hadn’t been able to sleep for a few nights.

By my primary school math - if 5%* of infected people require 3 days of ICU and mechanical ventilation to survive and a large segment of the population gets infected it'll result in a huge shortfall of ICU beds and mechanical ventilators which won't help the mortality rate at all.

*from the numbers publicly released 5% might be a conservative estimate.

 

[teammongo]

Banana Boy, realistically try 1-2 weeks of ventilation. Resource limitation will become reality very quickly.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Today was 2,009.

Source? DXY? Mine is Johns Hopkins, but they have to rely on China.



DXY is the site that Johns Hopkins (which updates constantly but irregularly throughout the day) primarily relies on for its China data, but it uses other sources also, reasons are outlined in its blog. Jobtube appears to be replicating the DXY data. Worldometer has useful analysis, but says it relies on the official chinese source, which I suspect is largely based on DXY or the same base reporting. Worldometer doesn’t state its sources for other countries, but suspect it would be using Johns Hopkins. Its data is less immediate, but less prone to last reporting day irregularities, which I suspect might be the source of the 200.

My only point was that the official numbers coming out of China, opined elsewhere to be hopelessly underreported, appear to be increasingly bizarre.

Thanks p-and-t, for the reminder of Worldometer. As I mentioned earlier, the numbers reported out of rest of World avoid reliance on china data, which is obscuring the global spread (marked at the moment by a series of hotspots). This is a really useful chart.

 

[get me outta here]

Coronavirus crisis: Evacuee family to charter private jet off Christmas Island
The West Australian
Saturday, 15 February 2020 10:54AM

Coronavirus crisis: Private jet home for evacuee family

Australian family evacuated from coronavirus-plagued Wuhan has chartered a private jet to fly home in from Christmas Island after their two-week quarantine.

thewest.com.au

 

[trevella]

Source?

Well, since you were talking about the dodginess of the official Chinese figures, that's what I quoted (National Health Commission).

Official figures for February 16 as reported by NHK and elsewhere are 105 deaths and 2,048 additional cases using their new broader definition.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Hmmm. My thought to be reliable source appears to be going screwy. Pick the problem with these (incomplete) numbers

 

[amaroo]

You can almost hear Brace, Brace, Brace... just around the corner.

"Indonesia has seen just 102 people tested for the virus in a nation of about 270 million people. Terawan cited "efficiency in budgeting" as an explanation for why the country had not conducted further tests"

Indonesian minister blames 'budget efficiency' for low coronavirus test rate

The comments come after a Harvard University professor said there was a 2.5 per cent chance Australia's neighbour had not been affected by the outbreak.

www.smh.com.au

 

[I love to travel]

For those intending to travel to Bali soon think very carefully....

 

[Pushka]

For those intending to travel to Bali soon think very carefully....

I’m not all that excited about losing a few thousand dollars just yet.

 

[I love to travel]

I’m not all that excited about losing a few thousand dollars just yet.

For me it would be about whether they will let you back into the country without mandatory quarantine.

 

[Pushka]

For me it would be about whether they will let you back into the country without mandatory quarantine.

Yes. We will prepare for that. If they issued a Do Not Travel then of course we wouldnt. That would suit us through Travel Insurance and we’d go up to Noosa for a week. I think there’s more risk in Singapore. Although the flight back might be a challenge from Bali.

We still have five weeks. Hopefully more of it to unfold and hopefully quickly.

 

[amaroo]

Yes. We will prepare for that. If they issued a Do Not Travel then of course we wouldnt. That would suit us through Travel Insurance and we’d go up to Noosa for a week. I think there’s more risk in Singapore. Although the flight back might be a challenge from Bali.

We still have five weeks. Hopefully more of it to unfold and hopefully quickly.

You have plenty of time to wait and observe, and given the cancellation penalty there is no harm done waiting. I didn't hesitate in cancelling a few long weekends in Singapore, we'll let this thing wash through and then slide back into those SQ suites.

 

[Pushka]

So if so many are testing positive but their symptoms are non existent or no more than a heavy cold, or potentially flu, what exactly is happening here?

 

[PineappleSkip]

I was waiting and observing. Just looking now at my Mid March booking HKG-BNE (connecting off ET) and CX have now cancelled it and appear to have marked my J booking with ‘Y’. This after they changed the date two days back and said ‘here’s your new booking, bob’s your uncle, nothing to do‘. RFI sent to client’s TA, who made the booking, via client . Either CX has screwed up or TA has been proactive while I observed. Stiff drink also poured.

update: Just spoke to a lovely Mancunian TA. they have put the screws on CX to reroute HKG-SYD-BNE in J, which I can cope with. Any normal time you'd think CX would do it for a OWE, but CX wheels are turning slowly, possibly due to cost implications for them. The other thing they might (ought to) do in any sensible time would be to stump up for accom in HKG, but it was never offered and obviously not seeking that route.

update 2: the wheels turned and now booked via SYD, on QF SYD-BNE, oddly not the CX codeshare flight no. Extra SCs I don't need, but the bonus points will come in handy.

cheers skip

 

[k_sheep]

Interestingly QF seems to still be selling tickets for Australia - MNL via HKG. Not convinced I am willing to book that one, given the high chance of being denied entry to MNL!

 

[Melburnian1]

Media is suggesting Indonesia has only 'tested 104' for the virus - up a whole two from Amaroo's post above.

Seems a very low number. Of any major country (i.e. excluding the Laoses and Cambodias) in southeast Asia, this must be the most questionable response, way behind Singapore and Philippines, for instance (especially Singapore.) It's a worry that Indonesia has 295 million people and yet can't seem to undertake sufficient, or proper, testing. Says a lot about dysfunction in its equivalent of our public service, health departments and medical facilities.

Apparently Indonesia is copping a good deal of criticism internationally for its perceived shortcomings re this virus.

Post automatically merged: Feb 17, 2020

Interestingly QF seems to still be selling tickets for Australia - MNL via HKG. Not convinced I am willing to book that one, given the high chance of being denied entry to MNL!

"High chance?" At present it's a certainly you'd be denied entry to Manila were you to travel via HKG.

 

[p--and--t]

I liked the juxtaposition of these two quotes in recent days...almost as good as watching "economists" and their predictions of a housing crisis every year for the last 20 years.

"All predictions are important. Most predictions are wrong. And I think we must be careful with that." [asked about prediction that Covid-19 could affect 2/3 of world's population]
Dr. Michael Ryan
Executive Director
WHO Health Emergencies Programme
Feb. 17, 2020

"I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can't give a good number"
Prof. Marc Lipsitch
Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 14, 2020

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I liked the juxtaposition of these two quotes in recent days...almost as good as watching "economists" and their predictions of a housing crisis every year for the last 20 years.

Though not surprising with a coronavirus. and with so many variables no one could be expected to be accurate.


With it having already infected so many people one would expect that it will just like other corona virus's get out worldwide. The only real question is how long will this take.

I guess the hope is that the current coming Asian Summer and quarantines will see that spread contained long enough so that a vaccination can be developed so that the eventual impact on infected people will be less including the fatality rate.

Convid 19 is out and about, and so I personally think if it it is made dormant fora while that just like any normal flu that it will spread again. It is just a matter of when we all get exposed to it. Let's hope that it is not till 2021.

 

[Melburnian1]

...I guess the hope is that the current coming Asian Summer and quarantines will see that spread contained long enough so that a vaccination can be developed so that the eventual impact on infected people will be less including the fatality rate...

When it's needed, wonders can sometimes be worked but isn't the reputed minimum time for development of a vaccine c.18 months even with all the funding available sufficient to pay those experts in the field?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

When it's needed, wonders can sometimes be worked but isn't the reputed minimum time for development of a vaccine c.18 months even with all the funding available sufficient to pay those experts in the field?

Yes for something new that is my understanding too as it did take that long. However some are claiming that it can and will be much quicker How Long Will It Take to Develop a Vaccine for Coronavirus?

SARS took 20 months, but that was almost twenty years ago and vaccines are evidently can be much quicker these days.


With the seasonal flu, which mutates I believe that they can do it a lot quicker which is my we can get our yearly flu shots.

But then again with the common cold coronavirus we are still waiting for a vaccination.