Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[p--and--t]

I guess the hope is that the current coming Asian Summer and quarantines will see that spread contained long enough so that a vaccination can be developed so that the eventual impact on infected people will be less including the fatality rate.

Convid 19 is out and about, and so I personally think if it it is made dormant fora while that just like any normal flu that it will spread again. It is just a matter of when we all get exposed to it. Let's hope that it is not till 2021.

When it's needed, wonders can sometimes be worked but isn't the reputed minimum time for development of a vaccine c.18 months even with all the funding available sufficient to pay those experts in the field?

I'm not in the medical field - just opinions here.

Given the huge advances in technology since SARS, they could probably have a vaccine ready in 3 months, but the testing and approvals will drive it out to around the typical 18+ month mark.

I don't expect the process will be cut short like the Ebola one as the death rate is not "substantial enough" to drive that sort of pressure on the authorities. We are also talking about huge quantities needing to be manufactured, another complication that takes months of planning and rigmarole.

 

[amaroo]

Cut from an article in the Oz...

Fewer than half of all coronavirus cases are likely being detected, according to a scientific paper which predicts many of those infected will not be diagnosed.

The paper from the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston says as many of 60 per cent of COVID-19 cases around the world are likely going undetected, even in countries such as Australia that have advanced surveillance techniques. “Recent work indicates variation among countries in detection capacity,” the paper says.

“We found that the ability to detect imported cases among high surveillance countries is 40 per cent, among intermediate surveillance countries it is 37 per cent, and among low surveillance countries it is 11 per cent.

“Undetected cases are likely in countries around the world, with greater risk in countries of low detection capacity and high connectivity to the epicentre of the outbreak.”

 

[Pushka]

Cut from an article in the Oz...

Fewer than half of all coronavirus cases are likely being detected, according to a scientific paper which predicts many of those infected will not be diagnosed.

The paper from the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston says as many of 60 per cent of COVID-19 cases around the world are likely going undetected, even in countries such as Australia that have advanced surveillance techniques. “Recent work indicates variation among countries in detection capacity,” the paper says.

“We found that the ability to detect imported cases among high surveillance countries is 40 per cent, among intermediate surveillance countries it is 37 per cent, and among low surveillance countries it is 11 per cent.

“Undetected cases are likely in countries around the world, with greater risk in countries of low detection capacity and high connectivity to the epicentre of the outbreak.”

Which might mean it might be a case that some not developing it, others getting the flu and needing recovery and others end up very ill especially the elderly and other comorbidities. Sounds familiar.
The swine flu was the very same and once it was seemingly everywhere they no longer tested for it. Nephew had swine flu and was only mildly unwell.

 

[drron]

A major problem has been politics and China.A brief outline from News.

‘Evil’: China’s ‘vile’ virus move exposed

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has been effusive in its praise for China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak. But don’t dare mention Taiwan.

www.news.com.au

The WHO Director general is an Ethiopian politician.Ethiopia has economic ties to China.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-good-and-bad-times-africas-biggest-airline-ethiopian-sticks-by-chinas-side/2020/02/09/67155ffc-4762-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html

Dr.Tedros the Director general of WHO was the Foreign Minister of Ethiopia when loans were negotiated with China.A disaster and Ethiopia is a large debtor to China.

Ethiopia and Kenya are struggling to manage debt for their Chinese-built railways

Ethiopia’s railway projects have been an instructive case of both the benefits and pitfalls of Chinese finance.

qz.com

Ethiopia | ReliefWeb Response

Stay updated on humanitarian operations in Ethiopia. Find locally curated resources, assessments, meetings and contacts to coordinate relief efforts.

www.humanitarianresponse.info

So I am certainly not taking the WHO's stance on this virus as gospel.

 

[amaroo]

Which might mean it might be a case that some not developing it, others getting the flu and needing recovery and others end up very ill especially the elderly and other comorbidities. Sounds familiar.
The swine flu was the very same and once it was seemingly everywhere they no longer tested for it. Nephew had swine flu and was only mildly unwell.

It appears to be taking a few healthy young ones with it. Another doctor reported dead and then denied within minutes ..... earlier today

One of the highest-ranking doctors in Wuhan is feared to have died after contracting coronavirus, as Chinese police prepare to begin house-to-house checks of all nine million residents in the city.

Liu Zhiming, the director of Wuhan Wuchang hospital, was reported in a tweet from the state-run People’s Daily newspaper to have died yesterday. However, within minutes the tweet was deleted after denials from the provincial health commission covering Wuhan, which said that Dr Liu was still being “resuscitated”.




Liu Zhiming, the director of Wuhan Wuchang hospital.

Chinese media report that Dr Zhiming, a neurosurgery expert, was a healthy person before the infection.

59-year-old nurse from the same hospital, Liu Fan, is reported to have also died of coronavirus.

 

[p--and--t]

which said that Dr Liu was still being “resuscitated”.

Umm, maybe just like the doctor who first reported the disease, put on ventilator until the appropriate low news cycle to turn it off

 

[Pushka]

Umm, maybe just like the doctor who first reported the disease, put on ventilator until the appropriate low news cycle to turn it off

And like the lightening Asthma that took a lot of healthy people. It happens.

 

[PineappleSkip]

A major problem has been politics and China...
Dr.Tedros the Director general of WHO was the Foreign Minister of Ethiopia when loans were negotiated with China.A disaster and Ethiopia is a large debtor to China.
...
So I am certainly not taking the WHO's stance on this virus as gospel.

Politics indeed. There has been quite a lot of reportage of the WHO and its eye to China as a large future funder, apropos Dr Tedros’ lauding of China’s efforts. In addition Ethiopia’s ET is continuing to fly to and from several Chinese Cities, as Ethiopia makes much of its shoulder to shoulder (with China) stance.

This article describes the situation at a Chinese funded hospital in Zambia
NBC: Africa braces for coronavirus

LUSAKA, Zambia — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

And the US is not happy. This article describes some interesting allegations about Chinese ‘spying’ involving genomic data

US Warns over Chinese ‘spying’ over Africa Disease Control Centre

The Trump administration has cited concerns over Beijing’s scientific spying programme as the reason it wants to block a Chinese plan to build an $80m headquarters for the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Ethiopia, amid growing competition for influence in the continent. “It’s a threat to Africa. Africa has vast amounts of genomic data and the Chinese want to build the CDC to eventually steal the data from all the other centres,” an administration official told the Financial Times

Cheers skip

 

[offshore171]

February arrivals into H.K. down an astonishing 99%

Hong Kong Arrivals to Plunge 99% in February on Virus

Early indicators of damage to Hong Kong’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak aren’t pretty. Preliminary visitor arrivals data for February show average daily traffic to the city plummeted to fewer than 3,000 people, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. That’s an almost 99% decline from...

www.bloomberg.com

Look at that graph.

 

[tgh]

That graph is amazing……….brrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[Pushka]

That graph is amazing……….brrrrrrrrrrrr

I wish the incidence of this damn Virus would do the same.

 

[suze2000]

Less than three weeks until we leave. Had my shots. Not much to be done but hope it all goes smoothly.

 

[moa999]

Amazing though the growth. Can only assume it was 90% China

 

[amaroo]

That graph would show the same illustration for Chinese tourism across the world. FWIW, not just Chinese. We've cancelled leisure trips to Singapore - I'm sure we're not the only ones..... look at the cancellation from SQ, CX and others.

Will be fun when the freight / shipping disruption hits the shelves.

 

[I love to travel]

Would be intereeting to see Singapore's graph.

 

[I love to travel]

February arrivals into H.K. down an astonishing 99%

Hong Kong Arrivals to Plunge 99% in February on Virus

Early indicators of damage to Hong Kong’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak aren’t pretty. Preliminary visitor arrivals data for February show average daily traffic to the city plummeted to fewer than 3,000 people, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board. That’s an almost 99% decline from...

www.bloomberg.com

Look at that graph.

View attachment 206208

Hotel prices seem still very high though. I guess they must be trying to get whatever revenue they can.

 

[p--and--t]

Not sure if the link has been published here before, but this is the detailed status and some case history for Hong Kong - published by the government.

Latest Situation of Novel Coronavirus Inflection in Hong Kong

Latest Situation of Novel Coronavirus Inflection in Hong Kong

chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk

 

[dajop]

Would be intereeting to see Singapore's graph.

Seat map below of a flight from MEL-SIN today about 90 mins before departure. Won't say which airline, but it's a 777. I'm hoping that my flights to MEL later this week, and back a week later will have similar Plenty of room to isolate from other pax.

 

[amaroo]

Education is another canary...

 

[Pushka]

Education is another canary...

View attachment 206218

Those figures tally with our understandings from various meetings. And this is just the first semester. UK has not closed its borders. Their first semester hasn’t started yet. Not good times ahead.