Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[dajop]

whereas like the Federal Government you are "surprised" that Indonesia has no 'virus' patients

I’ve been not surprised that Indonesia has not reported any cases. I would be extremely surprised if they don’t actually have any cases.

But I do wonder (and I guess time will tell) if the tropical environment may help ameliorate the spread. Singapore probably the exception in the tropics due to the intense use of of aircon (but then again, Bangkok also has this).

 

[juddles]

Interesting video breaking down the mortality from Covid-19 by sex and age, based from 44000 confirmed cases in China, published by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control::

40-49 years: 0.40%
50-59 years: 1.3%

Hospital staff claim coronavirus death toll in Iran has quadrupled

Australia has announced a ban on travellers from Iran after the latest coronavirus figures given to authorities indicated a “very significant rise” of cases and the highest death rate outside of mainland China.

www.news.com.au

Aaaaarrrrggghhhh! I hate pressure!!!

So if I fail to catch this in the next ten days then my personal mortality risk will more than triple!!

Will spend the next few days hanging out in chemists and public toilets without hand-soap.....

 

[JohnM]

Aaaaarrrrggghhhh! I hate pressure!!!

So if I fail to catch this in the next ten days then my personal mortality risk will more than triple!!

Will spend the next few days hanging out in chemists and public toilets without hand-soap.....

Pffft - put yourself in my shoes for a moment, young fella...

 

[juddles]

Pffft - put yourself in my shoes for a moment, young fella...

Your skiting is hurtful - you have managed a tad more calendar years and literally many dozens more countries traveled, yet are fitter and more healthy. . well played!!

 

[JohnM]

Your skiting is hurtful - you have managed a tad more calendar years and literally many dozens more countries traveled, yet are fitter and more healthy. . well played!!

Clean living, mate - clean living. Is that a concept alien to someone a mere 71% of my age?

 

[p--and--t]

Pffft - put yourself in my shoes for a moment, young fella...

I'm not quite there yet, but merely months away from joining you (I think) in the "insurance policy unloved" contingent and also multiplying my likelihood of returning in the cargo hold (by 20 times more than @juddles) rather than Y or J

 

[cove]

Son just remarked how quiet the Virgin business lounge is tonight.. He is now thinking of flying much more domestically while there is a lull for going to Melbourne and Sydney from Perth while the paranoia rages.

 

[juddles]

Clean living, mate - clean living. Is that a concept alien to someone a mere 71% of my age?

Unfortunately, and in an altruistic endeavour to balance All Things, I have lived my life in pure filth. Someone has to add the Yang to the Yin And so I now suffer the price...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Covid 19 having a higher mortality rate increasing with age is entirely consistent with the flu.

Mortality rate is higher than the flu, but what is estimated keeps dropping as more research is done. And of course there is no currently rolled out vaccine which also means the mortality rate is higher than with the flu.

What is know though is that a Covid19 carrier is contagious for a much longer period than a flu carrier. Hence one key factor in a "basic reproduction number" of 2.2. and the fear that it will continue to spread.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-28/china-study-puts-coronavirus-death-rate-at-14-37-real-number-may-be-lower

China Study Puts Coronavirus Death Rate at 1.4%; Real Number May Be Lower

HealthDay Reporter

FRIDAY, Feb. 28, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- The latest tally of almost 1,100 cases of COVID-19 infection from 30 Chinese provinces shows a fatality rate of 1.4% during the early phase of the outbreak.

That's much higher than the rate seen with the seasonal flu, where only about 0.1% of cases end in death. But it's far below the mortality rate of recent coronavirus outbreaks like SARS (9 to 10%) or MERS (36%), noted Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
Furthermore, the 1.4% figure cited in the new Chinese report, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, is probably higher than the "real" death rate, Fauci added.

That's because many coronavirus cases are so mild they're not even being reported, Fauci explained in an editorial he co-wrote in the same issue of the NEJM. Co-authors include Dr. Robert Redfield, who directs the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director of the NIAID.
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%," Fauci and his colleagues explained.

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968]," the experts wrote.
None of that means that millions of people might not feel miserable for a time as COVID-19 spreads globally. And that spread seems likely from data included in the new Chinese study, which tracked cases up to Jan. 29, Fauci and colleagues said.

The total number of cases globally has now passed 83,000 and nearly 3,000 have died. Sixty cases, most of them coming from people who traveled abroad, have been reported so far in the United States.

But according to the new Chinese study, it's estimated that every person infected with coronavirus spread the germ at a "basic reproduction number" of 2.2.

"Which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons," the NEJM editorialists wrote.
Unless that number falls below 1.0, "it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread," Fauci and colleagues predicted. They also noted that the coronavirus appears to be at relatively high levels in the mouth and throat even in the very early stages of infection, heightening "concerns about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms."



etc

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?
By Robert CuffeHead of Statistics

Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying?

The current best guess of a 1% death rate does not apply to everyone.

www.bbc.co.uk

How hard is it to work out the death rate?
It is PhD-level hard. Even counting cases is tricky.

Most cases of most viruses will go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms.

The different death rates we are seeing reported around the world are unlikely to be due to different versions of the virus.

According to research by Imperial College, it's because different countries are better or worse at spotting the milder, harder to count cases.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 2,871 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

 

[PineappleSkip]

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 2,871 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

The article’s comparisons strike me as rather misleading, apart from the suggestion “no big deal right now in this” which is fair enough in the US as of right now, and reason for Americans not to shelter in their basements just yet. There are 0 deaths in the US because it hasn’t started circulating yet, or has just started, and once it does circulate people take weeks to start to die (as probably with flu). The flu numbers compared are for a full, complete season, when it’s all over.

The worldwide deaths stat is interesting, with about 7.7 billion people worldwide, fewer in back years, this suggests a claim of roughly 1 in 10,000 die from flu each bad year. I have also seen 1 in 1,000 claimed elsewhere. These competing numbers are doing my head in.

Excellent article in the Economist this week, with a one in 1,000 claim for flu, that canvasses the economic and health implications and the issues around modelling epidemics early in their spread. It refers to research at ANU about economic impacts of a flu pandemic, with mild, moderate and severe pandemics modelled with 1.4, 14.2 and 71.1 million deaths (and hits to global GDP of 0.8%, 2% and 5% respectively). Even the smallest death number is a lot different to 646,000.

cheers skip

 

[cove]

First death in the US reported by USAtoday in Washington State. Trump to say something in a few hours time.
California is getting 1200 test kits to replace their first 200 that were all used last week.

 

[amaroo]

SMH reporting the CDC has issued (US citizens) no travel warning for Italy.

The Assoturismo Italian tourism federation was already warning that the sector that is responsible for 13 per cent of Italian GDP risked collapse following the virus.

March bookings were down 90 per cent in Rome and 80 per cent in Sicily, Assoturismo said, referring to parts of Italy largely untouched by the virus so far.

"This is the darkest moment. Not even September 11 hit so heavily," said the federation's president, Vittorio Messina.

 

[Pushka]

SMH reporting the CDC has issued (US citizens) no travel warning for Italy.

The Assoturismo Italian tourism federation was already warning that the sector that is responsible for 13 per cent of Italian GDP risked collapse following the virus.

March bookings were down 90 per cent in Rome and 80 per cent in Sicily, Assoturismo said, referring to parts of Italy largely untouched by the virus so far.

"This is the darkest moment. Not even September 11 hit so heavily," said the federation's president, Vittorio Messina.

And boom, like that, goes the Med cruise season this year. Plus a land trip I have to coincide with it. Airfare from Italy to Rome and a prepaid Hotel. Not sure if Insurance will cover unless Australia issues a similar warning. i need to check the policy to see what I'm covered for if when the cruise gets cancelled.

 

[amaroo]

And boom, like that, goes the Med cruise season this year. Plus a land trip I have to coincide with it. Airfare from Italy to Rome and a prepaid Hotel. Not sure if Insurance will cover unless Australia issues a similar warning. i need to check the policy to see what I'm covered for if when the cruise gets cancelled.

It’s going to get very ugly with the inevitable strangulation of every economy.

 

[tgh]

Everything is political..
Political spin is so important that it's a matter of life and death

 

[Denali]

Like many, when on hols I over indulge in massages and spa treatments. I'm guessing that's on the back burner for now/next travel.

Just had my weekly massage and extra signage, extra hand sanitiser and massuse wore a mask and table had a dettol smell.

I also got a hot towel rub down before massage started, that's not happened before.

Signage said your healthcare professional practises high level of care and ask if you have flu or cold symptoms that you cancel your appointment without penalty.

 

[amaroo]

And why weren't people from Iran told to self isolate for 14 days! It was a known risk area when she arrived.

Another one confirmed in NSW - same travel pattern being Iran. Looks like the person was walking around for 6/7 days after arriving and then landing in hospital.

 

[I love to travel]

@Pushka about Fiji vs Bali and quarantine measures, Greg Hunt was pretty insistent yesterday that Iran was an absolute exception and that the government will not do travel restrictions and quarantine unless it was very critical.