Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[amaroo]

Thanks to the Mod team ✔

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Interesting medical papers.
But I would rely more on my own experience on substances spread around apartment block.
When our Indian neighbors fire up their aromatic/smoky/sandal wood sticks it's immediately stinks in our bathrooms and on lift lobby.
So if anyone gets sick in the building I would physically cut off any ducted air communication going into apartment

However you are comparing apples and oranges, or in this case apples and grapes.

With coronavirus aersol transmission the aerosol is the virus attached to a water droplet and there is a limit as to how far that can droplet can travel. It can be across a room for the smallest droplets, but with the larger droplets it is more problematic within 1- 2 m. The smallest droplets are 5 micrometers and remain airborne longer than the typically larger ones and may reach across a room.

Infectious virus in aerosols are rapidly diluted through ventilation and natural decay in the environment, it is likely that the greatest risk of aerosol transmission is in close proximity to infected persons.


Whereas particles from smoke tend to be very small - less than one micrometer in diameter. As they are generated by a heat source they also tend to be bouyant and so spread and remain for hours if not longer. The presence of smoke spread is not an indicator for aerosol transmission.

The case with SARS was effectively powerful fan fans blowing blowing across a room, and people being present within that room. So yes do not remain in a room with a virus source and fans blowing (or even without fans blowing).

With AC in a building the air will be drawn some distance to the heating/chilling unit and then returned that distance again. So if this is so in your apartment cutting off your AC would do nothing.

Now in an apartment block you may have line of sight open connections through open windows or doors. So yes you would want these to be more than an adjacent room. But unless an infected person was coughing at the window or under the door transmission risk would be low.

 

[RooFlyer]

Greg Hunt was pretty insistent yesterday that Iran was an absolute exception and that the government will not do travel restrictions and quarantine unless it was very critical.

Trouble is, we might be doing global hop-scotch to find a route home!

 

[Pushka]

@Pushka about Fiji vs Bali and quarantine measures, Greg Hunt was pretty insistent yesterday that Iran was an absolute exception and that the government will not do travel restrictions and quarantine unless it was very critical.

That's reassuring.

My thoughts are that once proper testing in Bali commences then likely it might come to that with multiple cases being found. There is an interesting scenario with the NZ woman where Bali claimed she didn't exit the plane. That has now proven false, as we know, and showed they are prepared to cover up as this emptying of a plane is the rule these days and this is widely known.

 

[Bundy Bear]

First Australian died from Corona virus in WA.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If one looks at deaths in Hubei which seems to be plateauing and crudely compare the population size there to Australia and if we Australia wide had a similar infection and mortality rate one could project about 6000 deaths (ie 14 times our last flu season rate) without a vaccine in Covid19 ran rampant here as a reasonable likely worse case scenario.

There are many variables though. But I think that is more realistic than trying to use the current mortality rates as they are based on cases rather than total infections (which is unkown).

In Hubie too the population was caught unawares for a month, and so hopefully better practices (prevention, isolation and treatment) here would reduce that rate here. Obviously a vaccine would greatly reduce it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

First Australian died from Corona virus in WA.

I presume it was this person:

Western Australia is treating its first confirmed case of coronavirus, with a man who was evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and later confirmed to have the disease flown to Perth.

Key points:

• 164 Australians were in quarantine on the Diamond Princess in Japan
• They were evacuated to Australia after more than 600 infections on the ship
• The man will be treated in hospital while his wife is kept in home isolation

The 78-year-old man, who was travelling with his wife, arrived on a Royal Flying Doctor Service (RFDS) flight on Friday night.

He was one of 164 Australians isolated on board the ship

 

[oz_mark]

I presume it was this person:

Western Australia is treating its first confirmed case of coronavirus, with a man who was evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and later confirmed to have the disease flown to Perth.

Correct.

His wife, who also contracted COVID-19, remains in isolation in hospital.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This infographic from John Hopkins is already updated with the WA death. So they are obviously updating it frequently.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

 

[jase05]

AA has just announced it will suspend flights to/from MXP until April

 

[PineappleSkip]

While Johns Hopkins rely on published reports, the updates are a bit patchy. Right now the new NSW case isn't recorded, but probably later today will be. They had some data representation problems (country totals less than global total) but seem to have resolved these.

The BNO News stats get updated a bit more quickly. The latter also has a listing of its updates at the bottom and link to source.

There is some double counting. Many published stats appear to show Diamond Princess cases listed as "other" as well as cases in the country of repatriation (including the about 9 cases in Australia's figure).

El Pais reports (in spanish) a case of a traveller returning from Portugal testing positive. Google translate-

Asturias yesterday diagnosed a 70-year-old man who had traveled to Portugal, where there is no reported case,

cheers skip

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While Johns Hopkins rely on published reports, the updates are a bit patchy. Right now the new NSW case isn't recorded, but probably later today will be. They had some data representation problems (country totals less than global total) but seem to have resolved these.

The BNO News stats get updated a bit more quickly. The latter also has a listing of its updates at the bottom and link to source.

Both sites currently show 25 cases in Australia.


I prefer the JH infographic as it has a lot more information presented in easier to read and different ways. You can configure certain views too.
On the JH site you can also (at the bottom) click through and read the various data source sites used.

 

[get me outta here]

Do they know how/who may have started the Italian outbreak?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Do they know how/who may have started the Italian outbreak?

Well as of 3 days ago Patient 0 was known for South Korean Cluster, but not for China nor Italy.

The hunt for coronavirus ‘patient zero’: why world health may depend on it

Identifying the first person infected would help answer crucial questions about the virus. But as time passes, tracking them down grows more difficult.

www.scmp.com

 

[amaroo]

Not the most helpful statement or headline....

'They couldn't go in and hold his hand': Australia suffers first coronavirus death

An elderly Perth man who spent time on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship becomes the first Australian to die after contracting coronavirus — which the AMA has likened to the deadly Spanish flu.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pushka]

Not the most helpful statement or headline....

'They couldn't go in and hold his hand': Australia suffers first coronavirus death

An elderly Perth man who spent time on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship becomes the first Australian to die after contracting coronavirus — which the AMA has likened to the deadly Spanish flu.

www.abc.net.au

It's ridiculous and unnecessary. Next breath they tell people not to panic!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's ridiculous and unnecessary. Next breath they tell people not to panic!

Well that is modern "journalism" for you.

 

[Pushka]

Well that is modern "journalism" for you.

I'm glad you used these " ". It isn't journalism. That is supposed to present facts and not supposition. Articles purporting to be news currently, used to be called opinion pieces or editorial.

 

[get me outta here]

1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

The worldwide flu pandemic that killed 50 million people in 1918 may have originated with transported Chinese laborers, archival records suggest.

www.nationalgeographic.com

 

[get me outta here]

I prefer the Murdoch press headline, ‘PLAGUE’.

Not the most helpful statement or headline....

'They couldn't go in and hold his hand': Australia suffers first coronavirus death

An elderly Perth man who spent time on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship becomes the first Australian to die after contracting coronavirus — which the AMA has likened to the deadly Spanish flu.

www.abc.net.au

It's ridiculous and unnecessary. Next breath they tell people not to panic!