Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[amaroo]

AA has just announced it will suspend flights to/from MXP until April

You'd expect with the (reported) US travel advice to avoid Italy, there will be many more suspensions.

 

[Maisy33]

You still definitely need to thoroughly check though! I activated my CBA credit card insurance policy in November but when I called they confirmed anything relating to a pandemic is excluded, including if I get Coronavirus overseas, that my medical expenses associated with this will not be covered. Of if I get any other kind of cold and am detected as having a temperature so not allowed to fly/enter a country then it seems like it will just be bad luck, as that happening to me would still be arising out of an epidemic! So do check and ask the questions if relying on credit card insurance.

I also checked my CBA insurance a few weeks ago for my trip to Bali next month no coverage but my parents ANZ cc with Alliance did

 

[p--and--t]

Hot off the presses it seems there is a forecast timetable of the spread....

"Mr McGowan said modelling had shown that the coming months would present a higher risks of the virus spreading

"The modelling indicates that potentially, in late April or May, there may be greater spread of the illness here in Australia, and at that point in time obviously we would need to ramp up some of our activities," he said.

"The peak would then hit us in potentially August, which is obviously not a great month because our coldest months with the highest level of flu."

In WA on Tuesday morning there is due to be a public sector leadership meeting about the state's approach to COVID-19 and cabinet ministers will be briefed the chief health officer.

On Wednesday morning there is set to be a Security and Emergency Management meeting in Perth, including the Police Commissioner, health department staff and heads of other services, to plan what emergency response may needed for coronavirus in WA.

'They couldn't go in and hold his hand': Australia suffers first coronavirus death

An elderly Perth man who spent time on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship becomes the first Australian to die after contracting coronavirus — which the AMA has likened to the deadly Spanish flu.

www.abc.net.au

 

[moa999]

Call it pretty simple logic.
Once it gets somewhere it will spread.

 

[burmans]

All modelling is only as good as the assumptions you make and these assumptions vary so much at the moment I'm not putting a lot of faith in any modelling. But if the worst case assumptions are true and the spread of this is more widespread than reported I can't see this taking until August when from initiation to plateauing China it took 6 weeks. In my view we will know how bad this is in 4-6 weeks.

 

[amaroo]

1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

The worldwide flu pandemic that killed 50 million people in 1918 may have originated with transported Chinese laborers, archival records suggest.

www.nationalgeographic.com

That font hurts my eyes

 

[amaroo]

Another two confirmed NSW & VIC from a flight arriving from Iran... jeez, that country is a petri dish.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hot off the presses it seems there is a forecast timetable of the spread....

"Mr McGowan said modelling had shown that the coming months would present a higher risks of the virus spreading

"The modelling indicates that potentially, in late April or May, there may be greater spread of the illness here in Australia, and at that point in time obviously we would need to ramp up some of our activities," he said.

"The peak would then hit us in potentially August, which is obviously not a great month because our coldest months with the highest level of flu."

Apart from the fact that it will be the colder months in Australia when conditions are ripe for most corona viruses to thrive, the modelling will be pure guesswork.

There are simply way too many unknown variables for modelling to have any real degree of accuracy.

 

[drron]

I'm not sure that Fiji is going to be much safer than bali due to the extent of Chinese investment in Fiji.As elsewhere that often means the labour for the projects is Chinese.

Chinese Investments Increase Steadily in Fiji- China Business Network

INVESTMENT Fiji (IF) chief executive officer Godo Muller-Teut says Chinese investments in Fiji have increased steadily over the years.

www.china-invests.net

 

[oz_mark]

Apart from the fact that it will be the colder months in Australia when conditions are ripe for most corona viruses to thrive, the modelling will be pure guesswork.

There are simply way too many unknown variables for modelling to have any real degree of accuracy.

Well, you do need to have something to go on. One of the worries is that people will cop a double whammy of the seasonal flu, together with Covid-19.We'll see some messaging around this when we get closer to vaccination time.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well, you do need to have something to go on. One of the worries is that people will cop a double whammy of the seasonal flu, together with Covid-19.We'll see some messaging around this when we get closer to vaccination time.

Vaccination time is only 3 weeks away and I am already booked in.

Yes apart from ones's own health it is important for as many people as possible to get vaccinated for the flu so that the health system is under less siege if Covid 19 also starts to take hold.

On the optimistic side hopefully the message will get out more on the importance of proper handwashing , self-isolation etc so that BOTH the common flu and Covid 19 will cause less damage than they otherwise would.

It could even be feasible that if people are better on these aspects this flu season that less total damage may be done than last season with just the flu.

 

[juddles]

.....

On the optimistic side hopefully the message will get out more on the importance of proper handwashing , self-isolation etc so that BOTH the common flu and Covid 19 will cause less damage than they otherwise would.

It could even be feasible that if people are better on these aspects this flu season that less total damage may be down that last season with just the flu.

Hmmmm.... unfair - you argue with my views in another thread but then steal my idea that coronavirus could reduce overall influenza-style harm due to greater awareness and focus on hygiene?? I would forgive this trespass if you at least quoted me....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hmmmm.... unfair - you argue with my views in another thread but then steal my idea that coronavirus could reduce overall influenza-style harm due to greater awareness and focus on hygiene?? I would forgive this trespass if you at least quoted me....

I actually already posted that some time ago, and my post on that tonight was just repeating my already expressed sentiment.

ie on Feb 7

Well hopefully one upside should be increased handwashing.

So less problems with flu, gastro etc.

With better hygience apart from the flu, the common cold could also be reduced and other problems such as gastro etc could also all be greatly reduced ( Trivia for the day: Everyone talks about not touching door handles etc when in the toilet, but it is actually the flush button which has a large dose of bacteria and other nasties on it. I always flush by using a piece of toilet tissue and not my finger)..

Self isolating would also reduce the common cold. Or at least if you do have the common cold that is when wearing a face mask would be useful.

 

[juddles]

I actually already posted that some time ago, and my post on that tonight was just repeating my already expressed sentiment.

With better hygience apart from the flu, the common cold could also be reduced and other problems such as gastro etc could also all be greatly reduced ( Trivia for the day: Everyone talks about not touching door handles etc when in the toilet, but it is actually the flush button which has a large dose of bacteria and other nasties on it. I always flush by using a piece of toilet tissue and not my finger)..

Self isolating would also reduce the common cold. Or at least if you do have the common cold that is when wearing a face mask would be useful.

Cool - we appear to have the same perception on some things

 

[juddles]

....

Self isolating would also reduce the common cold. Or at least if you do have the common cold that is when wearing a face mask would be useful.

Would you agree that a couple of months of universal self-isolation would have a dramatic effect on reducing all viral problems?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Would you agree that a couple of months of universal self-isolation would have a dramatic effect on reducing all viral problems?

Yes if everyone self-isolated it would initially be positive, but then it would be drastically for the negative.

With everyone in self-isolation production of many things including food, antibiotics, power, fuel etc would all collapse and millions more would likely die from starvation and illness, freezing to death etc and a new dark age would begin, after which the flu, SARS, etc would all run rampant as would many other viruses and diseases killing even more.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Both sites currently show 25 cases in Australia.
I prefer the JH infographic as it has a lot more information presented in easier to read and different ways. You can configure certain views too.
On the JH site you can also (at the bottom) click through and read the various data source sites used.

Of course as soon as I mentioned it the BNO site went into neutral, not updated for most of the day. Maybe they are having Sunday off .
I don't think any of these counter sites are keeping up any more.

This article has a nice chart half way down. Drag the slider across and you can see the spread by country. It's an update on Egypt's slow investigation of the place from which tourists returned to France with COVID.

There are now nearly 2,100 active cases across 20 countries (if you include San Marino) in the Schengen Area. Interesting comment about the length of time the virus has been circulating in Lombardy in the running La Repubblica coverage from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità.

The first retrospectively reconstructed cases date back to the beginning of February, but the infection was probably already circulating in the second half of January. We are doing tests to do retrospective reconstructions in addition to the projections

(Google translate)

I'm not sure that Fiji is going to be much safer than bali due to the extent of Chinese investment in Fiji.As elsewhere that often means the labour for the projects is Chinese.

Chinese Investments Increase Steadily in Fiji- China Business Network

INVESTMENT Fiji (IF) chief executive officer Godo Muller-Teut says Chinese investments in Fiji have increased steadily over the years.

www.china-invests.net

Yes, not Fiji but I arrived in PNG about the time when China's lasting gift arrived - cholera . Worrisome what would/will happen if/when if COVID-19 arrives there.


Cheers skip

 

[Pushka]

I'm not sure that Fiji is going to be much safer than bali due to the extent of Chinese investment in Fiji.As elsewhere that often means the labour for the projects is Chinese.

Chinese Investments Increase Steadily in Fiji- China Business Network

INVESTMENT Fiji (IF) chief executive officer Godo Muller-Teut says Chinese investments in Fiji have increased steadily over the years.

www.china-invests.net

I reckon that philosophy applies to most of, well, many newly developing countries. Sri Lanka is similarly screwed. The Chinese investment in their port area is staggering. When we saw the constructions we commented to each other that China has another country beholden to them.

 

[tgh]

The daily figures are really ramping up now , any bets on when we hit (the first) million ?
Absolutely beyond comprehension that Indonesia reports not a singe case.

 

[jakeseven7]

The daily figures are really ramping up now , any bets on when we hit (the first) million ?
Absolutely beyond comprehension that Indonesia reports not a singe case.

There is physical proof that infected people have been in Bali, so it is almost impossible that they do not have any cases.

What is of course extremely possible is that their poor health system is not picking it up / they are covering it up.

It is only a matter of time before they can't cover it up any more and cue a lot of Australians then cancelling all of there travel there which is obviously what they are trying to avoid...