Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[PineappleSkip]

Just been reading the OECD interim economic outlook released today (the OECD coronavirus report, if you will). The full report is only 18 pages and pretty readable (if you like economics). If you like pictures, the cover photo is of an empty airport baggage hall. (where is that??)

Much of the report and its numbers is based on a lot of modelling work that draws on what the report refers to as a "base case" scenario, described as a "temporary blow", with a severe, short-lived downturn in China, and growth in Japan, Korea, and Australia, growth also hit hard, but temporarily. This is based on the spread being largely limited to China...

The projections are based on the assumption that the epidemic peaks in China in the first quarter of 2020, with a gradual recovery through the second quarter aided by significant domestic policy easing.

However, as we all know, there is now rapid global spread of the virus, with reported case numbers outside China set to exceed 10,000 tonight . Consequently, the OECD report also describes a "domino scenario" of broader contagion, with the intensity of the China impact repeated in northern advanced economies, severely hitting confidence, travel, and spending, and a gradual recovery through 2021 preducted (with a lot of uncertainty around that).

This China intensity hasn't materialised yet although the case growth numbers outside China, doubling every 5 days, make this scenario increasingly likely. In fact the headline rate of growth has accelerated in recent days. (Non China case numbers reached 1,000 on Feb 16, 2,000 on Feb 23, 4,000 on Feb 27, and 8,000 on March 1). Of course, we know that Malthusian growth doesn't last forever, countries will try and limit its growth, and eventually it will be self limiting. We just don't know when.

So for me the interesting stuff is toward the end about the domino scenario. It predicts economic impacts similar to those seen in China

... with a significant hit to confidence, heighted uncertainty and (voluntary) restraints on travel and commercial and sporting events all likely to depress spending

The shocks modelled in this scenario include a 2% hit to domestic demand in Q2 and Q3, and a 20% reduction in global equity prices in the first nine months, with results ...

Initially, the adverse impact is concentrated in China, but the effects in the rest of Asia, Europe and North America gradually build up through 2020. The major part of the decline in GDP again stems from the direct effects of the reduction in demand, but the impact of heightened uncertainty accumulates gradually, ... deflationary effects of the combined shocks [that] are considerably larger than in the base-case scenario

It also offers this commentary for the RBA and other central banks to consider

Faced with a large negative shock of the magnitude considered, and an extended period of high uncertainty, there would be a rising chance that several central banks could become constrained by the zero lower bound on policy interest rates, including those in Australia, Korea and the United Kingdom. Unconventional policy measures would then be needed to make policy more accommodative.

Fear not, there is no prediction that the sky will fall. However, it is likely to lower somewhat, possibly for an extended period. Looking forward to unconventional policy measures, which sound like rabbits extracted from hats.

Cheers skip

 

[get me outta here]

NYTimes reporting 5 died in Washington State.

SEATTLE — Three more residents of Washington State have died from coronavirus, officials announced on Monday, bringing to five the death toll in the United States and intensifying the crisis in this state, where a nursing facility in Kirkland has become a focus of illness and fear.

All of the deaths in this country have occurred in Washington State, and leaders in the Seattle area said on Monday that they intended to open isolation centers in an effort to contain an emerging coronavirus outbreak.

Dow Constantine, the executive of King County, said he had signed an emergency declaration for the county, which was preparing to buy a motel in the Seattle area where people who are infected with coronavirus could stay to remain isolated.

He said officials also were considering using modular housing units for residents in need of isolation but not hospitalization, as a way to free up access to medical facilities. “We need that hospital capacity for treatment,” Mr. Constantine said.
More testing for the virus was expected across the region as Kirkland became a center of both illness and fear, much of it focused on the nursing facility, where six coronavirus cases have been confirmed and many more residents and employees have complained of illness.

By Sunday, a quarter of Kirkland’s firefighters were in quarantine because they had been to the nursing facility. A nearby college spent the day cleansing its campus because students had visited the nursing home. The hospital has asked visitors to stay away.

 

[PineappleSkip]

There is a significant problem in Egypt, with 10 tourist returnees (6 France, 1 Canada, 1 Taiwan, 2 US) now testing positive. Egypt belatedly claimed to be investigating, but is proceeding slowly, to say the least. The two cases reported there are both incom8ng foreigners.

There are unconfirmed reports from Egypt of 20 cases hidden in military hospitals. If true (it is plausible) this is how not to deal with contagion.

cheers skip

 

[Max Samuels]

Gee the NZ PM speaks confidently and seemingly with a good handle on what actions have been taken there. Also interesting to read the story of one of those infected on the Diamond Princess that was repatriated to the US

I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

COMMENT: As we took off from Tokyo, I had a bit of a cough.

www.nzherald.co.nz

Re the NZ PM - cannot tell if you're being sarcastic or not? But each to his or her own I suppose?
And the blog/journal from the infected passenger... let's just hope that person doesn't die mid-sentence as it will really take the wind out of the "no need to panic" sails....

Post automatically merged: Mar 3, 2020

NYTimes reporting 5 died in Washington State.

SEATTLE — Three more residents of Washington State have died from coronavirus, officials announced on Monday, bringing to five the death toll in the United States and intensifying the crisis in this state, where a nursing facility in Kirkland has become a focus of illness and fear.

All of the deaths in this country have occurred in Washington State, and leaders in the Seattle area said on Monday that they intended to open isolation centers in an effort to contain an emerging coronavirus outbreak.

Dow Constantine, the executive of King County, said he had signed an emergency declaration for the county, which was preparing to buy a motel in the Seattle area where people who are infected with coronavirus could stay to remain isolated.

He said officials also were considering using modular housing units for residents in need of isolation but not hospitalization, as a way to free up access to medical facilities. “We need that hospital capacity for treatment,” Mr. Constantine said.
More testing for the virus was expected across the region as Kirkland became a center of both illness and fear, much of it focused on the nursing facility, where six coronavirus cases have been confirmed and many more residents and employees have complained of illness.

By Sunday, a quarter of Kirkland’s firefighters were in quarantine because they had been to the nursing facility. A nearby college spent the day cleansing its campus because students had visited the nursing home. The hospital has asked visitors to stay away.

Nothing to see here.. move along....

 

[Pushka]

Re the NZ PM - cannot tell if you're being sarcastic or not? But each to his or her own I suppose?
And the blog/journal from the infected passenger... let's just hope that person doesn't die mid-sentence as it will really take the wind out of the "no need to panic" sails....

Post automatically merged: Mar 3, 2020

Nothing to see here.. move along....

For the vast majority of people the virus may make you unwell for a few days and then recover. Most positive cases will be sent home for 14 days isolation. This is not the death virus for most.

 

[amaroo]

Thanos only knocked off 50% so he didn't get most either

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on Washinton State.

Seattle-area officials report new coronavirus deaths, bringing US total to 6

"We now know that the virus is actively spreading in some communities," said Washington State Health Officer Dr. Kathy Lofy.

www.cnbc.com

At least four more patients have died from COVID-19 in Washington state, bringing the total number of deaths in the U.S. to at least six as the coronavirus spreads throughout local communities around Seattle, local health officials said Monday.

and

Four states report more COVID-19 cases; silent Washington spread suspected

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Gene analysis points to silent Washington spread
Meanwhile, the gene sequence from a Snohomish County, Washington, high school boy whose illness was announced on Feb 28 as a community spread case has already been uploaded to a public database, and an early analysis hints that it is related to a Snohomish County case reported in January, suggesting that transmission has been underway in Washington state for the last 6 weeks.

The earlier case was a man in his 30s, the first to be detected in the United States. The Snohomish County man had traveled to Wuhan at a time when there were only 300 cases in China. He was seen at a clinic, where his specimens were collected and sent to the CDC. After his COVID-19 infection as confirmed, he was taken to Providence Regional Medical Center for treatment.

Trevor Bedford, PhD, in Twitter comments from the open-source pathogen genome analysis project Nextstrain, said the sequence from the new case descends on a branch from the earlier Snohomish County sequence, strongly suggesting transmission in the area over the past 6 weeks, which could have resulted in a few hundred cases. Bedford is a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.

He said the two sequences could also reflect separate introductions, though highly unlikely. "I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China."

Post automatically merged: Mar 3, 2020

It would seem that Covid 19 is more active in the USA than originally thought and that the belated distribution of test kits now is turning cases up.

 

[Max Samuels]

I am surprised to see how expensive some Hong Kong hotels still seem to be.... with tourism allegedly down "99%" I don't see how some hotels can still charge $700/night?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I am surprised to see how expensive some Hong Kong hotels still seem to be.... with tourism allegedly down "99%" I don't see how some hotels can still charge $700/night?

Maybe it is because the ones who are still travelling to Hong Kong are the ones who have to travel, or would still travel anyway, and so there is no point discounting and hotels need to charge a reasonable fee to cover costs in what are possibly largely empty hotel.

I cannot at present envisage travellers being drawn to Hong Kong by cheap hotel deals.

 

[Max Samuels]

I cannot at present envisage travellers being drawn to Hong Kong by cheap hotel deals.

Why? Isn't that the driver for many cheap holiday destinations for the Aussie?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Why? Isn't that the driver for many cheap holiday destinations for the Aussie?

Personally I would believe that fear of dying (especially when there is so much media about) is a greater motivator.

So you think that despite Covid19 that "Aussies" would flock to Hong Kong at present as long as they could book bargain hotel rooms?

I think for most of the travelling Aussie Public Hong Kong reads as China in their minds at present (And indeed Hong Kong is part of China).

 

[PineappleSkip]

Indeed, I get the impression Aussies are too busy emptying supermarket shelves to go on holiday!
cheers skip

 

[p--and--t]

Indeed, I get the impression Aussies are too busy emptying supermarket shelves to go on holiday!
cheers skip

..or sitting at home hoping their flight/cruise is cancelled so they can get a refund. (I know a few or them)

 

[Denali]

Another forum I belong to are currently picking over the stats on the black plague v taking your kid to Disney land end of March

 

[woodborer]

'The Australian' is reporting on its site that international airlines are experiencing 'no shows' of up to 50 per cent on flights.

Due to the paywall, I've not read the article but wouldn't many then lose the full fare that they'd paid?

Not sure if it was due to this, but here's a press release from IATA that mentions that no show rate

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-02-01/

• A carrier experiencing a 26% reduction across their entire operation in comparison to last year
• A hub carrier reporting bookings to Italy down 108% as bookings collapse to zero and refunds grow
• Many carriers reporting 50% no-shows across several markets
• Future bookings are softening and carriers are reacting with measures such as crew being given unpaid leave, freezing of pay increases, and plans for aircraft to be grounded.

 

[Melburnian1]

...

• Future bookings are softening and carriers are reacting with measures such as crew being given unpaid leave, freezing of pay increases, and plans for aircraft to be grounded.

Great work woodborer.

I haven't seen noticeable evidence of a sudden large number of travellers not fronting for Oz domestic flights. Is that others' experience?

 

[tinkybelle]

Ive spent the past week cancelling cruise and flights for people, as a travel agent we get nill if the client cancels and gets any sort of refund
I can see a lot of travel agents going under,

 

[jakeseven7]

I'm grounded internationally period and domestic is by exceptional approval now. Kiss status goodbye unless VA and QF come to the party with status extensions....

 

[p--and--t]

Saw a selfie online yesterday taken at Changi. The guy was in the sterile boarding area ready to get on his regional flight (IIRC to Penang?) along with what looked like less than 10 other passengers. He is an employee of SQ so guessing it was staff travel on a SG or TR flight.

 

[coriander]

I'm grounded internationally period and domestic is by exceptional approval now. Kiss status goodbye unless VA and QF come to the party with status extensions....

Mrs C, employed by a multinational logistics and B2G organisation, says the company has banned ALL international and domestic travel (air and rail) globally.
Looks like we'll need to burn 120k QFF points in a couple of months.