Cruising choices with an active Pandemic

[tgh]

Good luck to you , I opine that you are rolling the dice for a very low value return.
The cruise lines seem likely run out of cash before getting enough bums on seats to break even.
They are already borrowed to the gunnels at usurious rates and their asset values are trashed.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

They are already borrowed to the gunnels at usurious rates and their asset values are trashed.

One would suspect that there is going to be a glut of cruiseliners for a long time yet. And it is a lot harder mothball a ship than an aircraft too, both in cost and in it not being in a deteriorating environment.

 

[drron]

Though there are cruise lines and cruise lines.They can be very different.
My take is those with smaller ships especially if upmarket and those with Expedition cruising are likely to rebound quicker than the mass market cruise lines with mega ships.Those markets are not nearly as price sensitive as the mass cruise lines.Expedition cruises are often going to places with very small human populations and far less likely to be a problem with Covid.Also it will be easier to have a proper Covid protocol than on the mega cruise ships.

 

[VPS]

I also think that with the number of Americans complaining that their cruise isn't going ahead, there are many who will cruise no matter what. Their heads are planted firmly in the sand.

 

[Pushka]

I also think that with the number of Americans complaining that their cruise isn't going ahead, there are many who will cruise no matter what. Their heads are planted firmly in the sand.

I remember the day when it was announced that US had stopped cruises sailing out of their ports - lets say it was 5pm so a Celebrity ship ensured it was all ready to depart before 5pm to beat the deadline and everyone on CC was cheering that it had left before.

I see also that HAL has sold four ships to Olssen cruise line.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Though there are cruise lines and cruise lines.They can be very different.
My take is those with smaller ships especially if upmarket and those with Expedition cruising are likely to rebound quicker than the mass market cruise lines with mega ships.Those markets are not nearly as price sensitive as the mass cruise lines.Expedition cruises are often going to places with very small human populations and far less likely to be a problem with Covid. Also it will be easier to have a proper Covid protocol than on the mega cruise ships.

While you certainly know more a lot more about these types of cruises than I do, as I understand it only some tend to operate from the one base and area.

Many have routes and seasons and so go from port to port and country to country, and indeed even hemisphere to hemishpere, and so operating them will be problematic for some time.

Routes that will be easy to get up will be ships that leave and return from the one country, and I assume such itineraries will be quite limited.


The second problem I see is where the passengers are intended to come from another country, and that also looks to a large problem for some time. Particularly for Australians who might want to partake as it would seem that international leisure travel to any non-bubble countries is just not even on the agenda at present.


If eventually Vic gets over its current surge, one could see maybe cruises like Australia to NZ and Pacific Islands happening, as well as routes along the NW Coast, and Barrier Reef and other Australian Coastal destinations etc. Plus say comedy and other themed cruises that basically go no where for 4 days or so.

But expedition cruises from far distant ports would to my thinking be a long way off.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I also think that with the number of Americans complaining that their cruise isn't going ahead, there are many who will cruise no matter what. Their heads are planted firmly in the sand.

Well looking at Florida, the cruise state, and their beaches at present then yes many would seem to want to carry on regardless irrespective of how many cases are happening.

 

[drron]

With Expedition ships you are generally looking at passenger capacity around 200 pax so the mechanics of getting people around is not as hard as the large ships.
Certainly they go from hemisphere to hemisphere.Quite a lot cruise the Antarctic around the end of the year and then the Arctic mid year. They will be welcomed back in Ushuaia and Longyearbyen.
The only problem is they may have to forego passengers on the cruises in between though I can foresee many of them not being a great problem.

As for passengers getting there there are already protocols from the larger of the Expedition fleets which include testing for Covid before you leave home,again prior to boarding and testing available on board. Certainly some countries may expect testing prior to disembarking but I don't see a problem with another test then.Plenty of availability of tests giving an answer in about 30 minutes or less.

But I am looking at about 18 months out.By then there may be a vaccine but certainly more effective treatment of Covid.

 

[p--and--t]

I know their business to selling, but useless for VacationsToGo sending me this today. No hope in hell I will book anything before 21-22 fin year

"This week, we've arranged money-saving offers with six different cruise lines, including deep discounts and free amenities or shipboard credits, which are as good as cash on the ship and can be used toward onboard purchases not covered in the cruise fare, like shore excursions and Internet packages. Please note that some rates on our site may not be eligible for free amenities or shipboard credits.

Celebrity has slashed rates by up to 86%. Plus, get shipboard credits of up to $100 per cabin on select departures when you book an inside, ocean-view or balcony stateroom, and get two of the following perks on select cruises booked at eligible rates: 1) an additional shipboard credit of $300 per cabin, 2) a Classic beverage package for two, which includes a variety of alcoholic or nonalcoholic beverages, 3) prepaid gratuities for two or 4) unlimited Internet access for two. Book a suite and get all perks on select departures. See dates and prices.

Silversea has reduced rates by up to 82%, plus receive shipboard credits of up to $1,100 per cabin and pay a reduced deposit of just $500 per person on select sailings. Your Silversea fare includes onboard gratuities, complimentary beverages including wine and spirits and butler service. See dates and prices.

Ponant, a French cruise company, is offering our customers big discounts, with savings of up to $3,000 per cabin on select Antarctica voyages. Also receive exclusive shipboard credits of up to $100 per cabin on most sailings. Prices include gratuities and alcoholic beverages. Book by July 31. See dates and prices.

Norwegian is offering our customers huge discounts of up to 81%, as well as exclusive shipboard credits of up to $75 per cabin on select departures. Book a balcony or higher on select sailings in 2021 and get free gratuities. Plus, on select sailings receive all of the following perks on cabins booked at eligible rates: 1) unlimited open bar for two, 2) a specialty dining package that includes up to five meals for two guests at select dining venues, 3) up to 250 minutes of Internet, 4) a shore excursion credit of $50 per cabin, per port (not including embarkation port), or 5) friends and family sail free as third/fourth passengers in the cabin on select departures (port fees and taxes are additional). Book by July 21. See dates and prices.

Cunard is offering Vacations To Go customers savings of up to 44%. Also get shipboard credits of up to $1,900 per cabin and 50% reduced deposits on select sailings. Suites also receive free beverages and free gratuities for two on applicable dates. Book by July 20. See dates and prices.

Oceania is offering Vacations To Go customers discounts of up to 84% and exclusive shipboard credits of up to $600 per cabin, plus free upgrades on select sailings. See dates and prices."

 

[VPS]

I know their business to selling, but useless for VacationsToGo sending me this today. No hope in hell I will book anything before 21-22 fin year

"This week, we've arranged money-saving offers with six different cruise lines, including deep discounts and free amenities or shipboard credits, which are as good as cash on the ship and can be used toward onboard purchases not covered in the cruise fare, like shore excursions and Internet packages. Please note that some rates on our site may not be eligible for free amenities or shipboard credits.

Celebrity has slashed rates by up to 86%. Plus, get shipboard credits of up to $100 per cabin on select departures when you book an inside, ocean-view or balcony stateroom, and get two of the following perks on select cruises booked at eligible rates: 1) an additional shipboard credit of $300 per cabin, 2) a Classic beverage package for two, which includes a variety of alcoholic or nonalcoholic beverages, 3) prepaid gratuities for two or 4) unlimited Internet access for two. Book a suite and get all perks on select departures. See dates and prices.

Silversea has reduced rates by up to 82%, plus receive shipboard credits of up to $1,100 per cabin and pay a reduced deposit of just $500 per person on select sailings. Your Silversea fare includes onboard gratuities, complimentary beverages including wine and spirits and butler service. See dates and prices.

Ponant, a French cruise company, is offering our customers big discounts, with savings of up to $3,000 per cabin on select Antarctica voyages. Also receive exclusive shipboard credits of up to $100 per cabin on most sailings. Prices include gratuities and alcoholic beverages. Book by July 31. See dates and prices.

Norwegian is offering our customers huge discounts of up to 81%, as well as exclusive shipboard credits of up to $75 per cabin on select departures. Book a balcony or higher on select sailings in 2021 and get free gratuities. Plus, on select sailings receive all of the following perks on cabins booked at eligible rates: 1) unlimited open bar for two, 2) a specialty dining package that includes up to five meals for two guests at select dining venues, 3) up to 250 minutes of Internet, 4) a shore excursion credit of $50 per cabin, per port (not including embarkation port), or 5) friends and family sail free as third/fourth passengers in the cabin on select departures (port fees and taxes are additional). Book by July 21. See dates and prices.

Cunard is offering Vacations To Go customers savings of up to 44%. Also get shipboard credits of up to $1,900 per cabin and 50% reduced deposits on select sailings. Suites also receive free beverages and free gratuities for two on applicable dates. Book by July 20. See dates and prices.

Oceania is offering Vacations To Go customers discounts of up to 84% and exclusive shipboard credits of up to $600 per cabin, plus free upgrades on select sailings. See dates and prices."

I totally agree but I wonder how many people are actually booking. I'm betting some Americans are

 

[zig]

I totally agree but I wonder how many people are actually booking. I'm betting some Americans are

From what I have read on online forums many many people are rebooking using their FCCs. There are also many comments hoping that their cruises won't be cancelled for Sept, Oct etc. I mean, really, who would be hopping on a cruise this year

 

[tgh]

who would be hopping on a cruise this year ?

Well there are some cruises happening.. Sea Dream with Norwegian coastal cruises

With SeaDream in Norway, a start to international ocean cruising

SeaDream Yacht Club's first Norway voyage sailed from Oslo Saturday becoming, perhaps, world's first ocean cruise line to resume international operations

www.seatrade-cruise.com

Hurtigriten are also operating :

Hurtigruten Takes Off With 14 Ships And Fresh Itineraries - Cruise Passenger

Hurtigruten, the world’s first line to restart ocean cruising in Norway on June 16, will launch several new itineraries around the British Isles on its first

cruisepassenger.com.au

There will be some breath holding across the industry as the standard bearers get back to business
There will also be some close scrutiny of infection rates…BUT… it's arguably hard to monitor infection spread with a fast turnover..
They are on and off and gone to somewhere in no time flat..did they spread it/get it from us ??…we say nay… so prove it….

 

[Pushka]

who would be hopping on a cruise this year ?

Well there are some cruises happening.. Sea Dream with Norwegian coastal cruises

With SeaDream in Norway, a start to international ocean cruising

SeaDream Yacht Club's first Norway voyage sailed from Oslo Saturday becoming, perhaps, world's first ocean cruise line to resume international operations

www.seatrade-cruise.com

Hurtigriten are also operating :

Hurtigruten Takes Off With 14 Ships And Fresh Itineraries - Cruise Passenger

Hurtigruten, the world’s first line to restart ocean cruising in Norway on June 16, will launch several new itineraries around the British Isles on its first

cruisepassenger.com.au

There will be some breath holding across the industry as the standard bearers get back to business
There will also be some close scrutiny of infection rates…BUT… it's arguably hard to monitor infection spread with a fast turnover..
They are on and off and gone to somewhere in no time flat..did they spread it/get it from us ??…we say nay… so prove it….

With the tracing that happens in Australia they would be able to ascertain that but anywhere else?

 

[tgh]

From the Financial Times yesterday, they had this headline: “Carnival taps bond market for another $1.3bn to stay afloat” with these highlights: “Carnival Corporation raised a further $1.3bn secured against its fleet of ships on Wednesday, as the cruise operator seeks to steady itself while burning through more than half a billion dollars per month. The world’s largest cruise operator has suffered after the outbreak of coronavirus caused sickness and death on several of its vessels and forced the cancellation of voyages. The Miami-headquartered company has already paid a hefty price to raise over $10bn of cash. In April it offered an interest rate of 11.5 per cent on $4bn of secured bonds backed by the company’s assets, including 83 of its ships. It has now used the same collateral to sell a 'second lien' bond on Wednesday, which takes priority over about $11bn of unsecured borrowings but stands behind first lien creditors — the holders of the bonds sold in April — in the event of bankruptcy. The company hopes the latest cash injection will help it survive until it can emerge from the crisis and begin operating cruises once more. Last week the company predicted that it will consume cash at a rate of $650m per month for the second half of this year. That estimate is down from roughly $1bn when the last bond deal was announced, after the company laid off and furloughed staff and announced plans to sell or recycle some ships in its fleet.”

 

[SydneySwan]

From the Financial Times yesterday, they had this headline: “Carnival taps bond market for another $1.3bn to stay afloat” with these highlights: “Carnival Corporation raised a further $1.3bn secured against its fleet of ships on Wednesday, as the cruise operator seeks to steady itself while burning through more than half a billion dollars per month. The world’s largest cruise operator has suffered after the outbreak of coronavirus caused sickness and death on several of its vessels and forced the cancellation of voyages. The Miami-headquartered company has already paid a hefty price to raise over $10bn of cash. In April it offered an interest rate of 11.5 per cent on $4bn of secured bonds backed by the company’s assets, including 83 of its ships. It has now used the same collateral to sell a 'second lien' bond on Wednesday, which takes priority over about $11bn of unsecured borrowings but stands behind first lien creditors — the holders of the bonds sold in April — in the event of bankruptcy. The company hopes the latest cash injection will help it survive until it can emerge from the crisis and begin operating cruises once more. Last week the company predicted that it will consume cash at a rate of $650m per month for the second half of this year. That estimate is down from roughly $1bn when the last bond deal was announced, after the company laid off and furloughed staff and announced plans to sell or recycle some ships in its fleet.”

So they have borrowed 2 months of cash to burn through. What is the plan for when that runs out? I won't be booking with Carnival until I have some confidence in their survival.

 

[tgh]

Walk a day in their shoes, they are trying to survive and praying for a miracle (100% Vaccine).
I would probably do the same, but I have some concern and sympathy for the many many thousands of hopeful supplicants playing roulette
with forward bookings who may lose their money without earning a sou in interest.

 

[VPS]

I feel sorry for all the staff that are just keeping these ships going and stranded somewhere. I'm guessing they wouldn't be allowed off anywhere

 

[Pushka]

I feel sorry for all the staff that are just keeping these ships going and stranded somewhere. I'm guessing they wouldn't be allowed off anywhere

And the same for Naval folk too.

 

[odysseus]

So they have borrowed 2 months of cash to burn through. What is the plan for when that runs out? I won't be booking with Carnival until I have some confidence in their survival.

They're not at zero now - and far from it. But it's better to raise when things are looking better than when things are looking desperate.

Post automatically merged: Jul 17, 2020

I feel sorry for all the staff that are just keeping these ships going and stranded somewhere. I'm guessing they wouldn't be allowed off anywhere

Even some not keeping them going...

NZ Cruise Performer Finally Makes It Home After Multiple Quarantines - Cruise Passenger

Lauren Marshall, who was working on Celebrity Eclipse off the coast of San Diego when a COVID case was discovered, has now completed her fourth round of

cruisepassenger.com.au

 

[drron]

Spain has announced an indefinite ban on cruise ships entering Spanish ports possibly into 2021.

Spain bans cruise ships 'until coronavirus crisis is finally over'

SPAIN has extended the ban on cruise ships in its ports potentially well into 2021, not doubt causing heartbreak for Britons with their sights set on such a holiday.

www.express.co.uk

And the UK Foreign Office has advised all UK citizens to not go cruising.

Foreign Office tells ALL tourists not to go on cruises due to Covid-19

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has today issued a statement advising people against embarking on cruise ships, over fears of the spread of Covid-19.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Incidentally at the same time allowed travel to 59 countries.Though one on the list is Australia.A list is in the above link.

And some think Carnival will emerge stronger from this setback.

Carnival Could Emerge From the Pandemic Stronger, Stifel Says

“We have been able to identify several enhancements borne out of the shutdown that strengthen our conviction in our Buy-rated recommendation on CCL shares,” Stifel says in a research note.

www.barrons.com