Ethiopian 737 Max 8 crash and Fallout

[dajop]

Interesting the whole anti LCC thing. Are those blacklisting LCC’s honest I that they are doing so for safety or are they doing so for comfort/customer service reasons? What about European LCC’s? Ryanair and EasyJet both have very good safety records and do a huge number of flights each day.

 

[OATEK]

Trust is hard to win, easy to lose. But trust is what we really go by when booking a flight.

The issue with MH17 is that people had begun to question whether to fly with them after MH370, and then a few months later we had MH17. There are many who will not trust them again, after they failed to see the risk to the business & pax and kept flying in the vicinity of where aircraft had been recently shot down.

Now peoples trust in Boeing has been put to the test, and while I have no worries about flying in a B777 it will be a long time before a B7M8 carries me anywhere.

Ultimately we each have to undertake our own risk assessment, and test our trust in a carrier. But to do it on a flight by flight basis based on what can only ever be on limited data, is not really practical. So for now carriers with a 7M8 do not have my trust, as I don't want to have to rely on EF to alert me that a flight has had a change to an aircraft I do not wish to fly on.

 

[Quickstatus]

Interesting the whole anti LCC thing. Are those blacklisting LCC’s honest I that they are doing so for safety or are they doing so for comfort/customer service reasons? What about European LCC’s? Ryanair and EasyJet both have very good safety records and do a huge number of flights each day.

Im sure there are good and bad ones. However I (personally) find it difficult to separate those who are "Cheap and Nasty" from those who are "cheap and cheerful". I dont have the metrics to base any decision on. There are some metrics - JQ is under the QF umbrella so thats puts them higher up the totem pole. And similarly, Tiger is under the Virgin umbrella. Then there are those who seem to feature regularly in ATSB reports like AirAsia so they are far down the pole - and im scared off by their motto "Now everyone can fly" which I think applies to people wanting to be their pilots as well
Ive never looked at RyanAir and EasyJet so I dont know but their history suggests they are Ok.

The metric I really would like is pilot hours. Whats my minimum?. I dont know.
The other metric is time - a bit of history behind an airline helps. The Air Asia crash replicated in many ways the AF crash which is not a good look.

A 200 hr pilot driving an A320 is never a good idea because the while the airbus has good protections, its when the Airbus decides it cant/wont and gives the plane back without the protections to a "Cadet" who likely have only flown the Airbus with all its protections (and without protections only in a few simulator sessions), and then we expect the pilot has enough training/experience to fly it like a Boeing.

The 7M8 started doing things on its own (immediately then behaving unlike a Boeing), and while the solution was simple and in the manual, it takes training and experience to manage the entire situation. Would more experienced pilots have saved the day?. Well maybe, like in many other crash investigations, they may setup a simulator session with other pilots and see how they perform.

 

[jb747]

This has probably diverged so much from the original thread topic that it possible needs it’s own.....

Im sure there are good and bad ones. However I (personally) find it difficult to separate those who are "Cheap and Nasty" from those who are "cheap and cheerful". I dont have the metrics to base any decision on. There are some metrics - JQ is under the QF umbrella so thats puts them higher up the totem pole. And similarly, Tiger is under the Virgin umbrella.

Which is, of course, what you’re supposed to think. The reality though, is that they are totally separate entities, and should be judged on their own merits.

The metric I really would like is pilot hours. Whats my minimum?. I dont know. The Air Asia crash replicated in many ways the AF crash which is not a good look.

Sadly it’s a totally useless metric. A 200 hour RAAF pilot is vastly better trained than a 200 hour MPL cadet. One has been taught to actually fly, whilst the other has been taught to operate an autopilot. Somehow or other, you need to work out whether hours are ‘quality’ or not.

You don’t learn very much about flying, watching an autopilot. In fact, it an effort for pilots who do know how to fly to actually keep their skills. Some airlines don’t allow, or severely limit pilots ability to disconnect the autopilot, to simply enjoy the day and have a drive.

Have a think about the Asiana accident in SFO. The bloke in the left seat was captain on the A320, looking to convert to the 777. He was, apparently quite concerned about the fact that he’d have to do a visual approach. Now, this should be bread and butter. But....in his past he’d been a 747 FO, and is unlikely to have been given very much actual flying there. He then went to the A320, and again, probably did very little without the autopilot. So, even though he had thousands of hours, a simple task (i.e. a visual approach), was something that he could not do.

A 200 hr pilot driving an A320 is never a good idea because the while the airbus has good protections, its when the Airbus decides it cant/wont and gives the plane back without the protections to a "Cadet" who likely have only flown the Airbus with all its protections (and without protections only in a few simulator sessions), and then we expect the pilot has enough training/experience to fly it like a Boeing.

A decent FO is worth his weight in gold when the going gets difficult. Not only in possibly helping to fly the aircraft, but also in handling whatever the fault is. Low hour pilots simply load up the other guy, effectively turning him into a single pilot, instructor.

The 7M8 started doing things on its own (immediately then behaving unlike a Boeing), and while the solution was simple and in the manual, it takes training and experience to manage the entire situation. Would more experienced pilots have saved the day?. Well maybe, like in many other crash investigations, they may setup a simulator session with other pilots and see how they perform.

You have to differentiate. There is experience, and simply hours in a log.

Matt Hicks on QF32 was a superb FO, who had to handle all of the faults. On QF30, I had another excellent FO, and as he was already doing the flying, I let him continue throughout the descent whilst it gave me a chance to work on the problems. Having decent FOs gives you that choice. A recent story on Lion has it that the captain initially had the problem under control, but that the handed over to the FO so that he could try to resolve the issue. The FO was not as aggressive in his inputs, and lost control of the aircraft. So, why couldn’t the FO sort out the problem?

 

[p--and--t]

This thread has me somewhat bemused.

Air travel is just another form of public transport (except for those privileged few that can charter or own their own aircraft).

Most people will at some time in the next few weeks if not daily, board a bus, tram or train without a second thought other than will it arrive on time.

The journey generally will be selected based on timetable and/or needed arrival time. There will not be any thought whatsoever given to the make or model, age, operator, maintenance regime, or any other consideration other than some vehicles may have air-conditioning and some may not.

Many of these conveyances (especially trams & trains) are many decades old, and have irregular testing/major servicing and do not have seat belts. In the majority, they do not have alarms saying you are going too fast/slow, or there is something on the track/road in front of you or something may possibly be going wrong with one of the major systems like hydraulics/brake pads, a loose rail, etc.

Trains especially may be carrying many hundreds of passengers and in peak periods many more than most aeroplanes. Passengers are often standing and they with their belongings are loose cannons in an urgent stop.

These vehicles are driven by persons who may have received a licence many years ago, have not had any significant emergency recovery training, who are not retested, do not have regular medical checkups and in many cases not tested for drugs, mental health, alcohol or proficiency.

They do not have co-pilots. Other than trains, nor do they have (air) traffic controllers watching out for them and doing their best with sophisticated technology to make sure they don't run into each other or something else.

Which vehicle is used on any route on any one day is unannounced. Which driver and his experience is totally unknown. The history of the vehicle is totally unknown. Any signalling or rail faults that may have occurred on that route/ track will be unknown unless you were there in person at that time or know someone on that vehicle. Which passengers and their likely intent on boarding is never examined even by the carrier.

Unreported (in the media) train and tram and bus accidents happen every day of the week, very often with persons sustaining injuries.

Every few weeks there is a major accident that is reported where people are severely injured or die in head on collisions, derailments and running into the back of one another or bridges or other infrastructure.

I haven't seen any operator suspended widely in a country or continent or train/tram/bus manufacturer in a flurry of media that runs for weeks and months and semi panic in the populace.

Other forms of public transport like taxis and UBER have similar attributes albeit significantly less passengers per vehicle. Whether the vehicles have been serviced, have faults or the driver even has a licence are totally unknown.

I haven't come across anyone yet on a daily basis on these other more often used transport methods who has the same level of anxiety as exhibited on post after post after post on here about air travel.

 

[Himeno]

JB, what would you think of this pilot?
A student pilot on a solo flight lost part of his landing gear after clipping a sign during a touch and go.
After seeing what happened he told the tower who cleared the airspace of other traffic and tried to contact his flight school as the student didn't know what to do.
Running out of fuel, and before getting in touch with his instructor, he landed the aircraft.

Good future pilot with more training?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

at p—and—t... cause I can get off a bus at the next stop? (and frequently have to on my bus line as they use clapped out old buses that can’t handle the heat). Or on the train if the driver collapses the automatic brake will kick in stopping the train.

Aircraft are somewhat different.

 

[AviatorInsight]

JB, what would you think of this pilot?
A student pilot on a solo flight lost part of his landing gear after clipping a sign during a touch and go.
After seeing what happened he told the tower who cleared the airspace of other traffic and tried to contact his flight school as the student didn't know what to do.
Running out of fuel, and before getting in touch with his instructor, he landed the aircraft.

Good future pilot with more training?

I reckon he did a great job! After flying around a bit and then becoming uncomfortable with the way it was flying, he made an executive decision and landed it, walking away.

I don’t think he was on a first solo, but even still, I would always get the students to drop me off in the run up bay with a handheld radio before they would continue with solo circuits in the early stages. I would be asking his instructor some serious questions though.

 

[Berlin]

@jb747 hit the nail squarely on the head.

While the readers of this forum, who are a very select and very much minority group may fret over even the placement of a single seat on variant 3 seating plan of a particular aircraft type with a specific carrier, 99.9% of the people I deal with on a daily basis say "did you see that fare!!!!!" and when I ask which airline and what are the layovers like, they say; "who cares".

I disagree- you’re talking about the low margin cheapscape tourist travelers. Many corporate travelers might not be as savvy as many here on the forums but most of my colleagues in various companies have cared and do care much more than you’d think about aircraft types, airline reputation and so on. And that is the business class flying high value crowd.

 

[TomVexille]

For those who are concerned about low hour cadets, here's a list of some of the airlines that have/are running cadet programs

Airline Mentored Cadet Pilot Programs 2017 | FlightDeckFriend.com

 

[woodborer]

When there is a choice no LCC. When there is no choice and JQ is the only service then I would fly JQ.
Sometimes there is no choice in which case air is often better than road.

People whine about RyanAir a lot, but they seem reasonably safe.
If you go looking through records, every airline seems to have had rough patches....

 

[Berlin]

Interesting the whole anti LCC thing. Are those blacklisting LCC’s honest I that they are doing so for safety or are they doing so for comfort/customer service reasons? What about European LCC’s? Ryanair and EasyJet both have very good safety records and do a huge number of flights each day.

Totally agree. I’ve worked for easyJet in the past, as a contractor, but dealt a lot with their senior management at the time. It could be that things have changed since then though I have no reason to assume so. Back then I can at least, I can vouch that the one thing no one would have suggested taking any short cuts was safety. And I think their safety record is a result of that.

Not all LCC are the same, very much as not all “Majors” are not- AF I’m looking at you.

 

[p--and--t]

I disagree- you’re talking about the low margin cheapscape tourist travelers. Many corporate travelers might not be as savvy as many here on the forums but most of my colleagues in various companies have cared and do care much more than you’d think about aircraft types, airline reputation and so on. And that is the business class flying high value crowd.

Before I retired I worked for one of the largest companies in aus. The company criteria for flight selection was cheapest available flight on the half day in question.

 

[cambriamarsh]

The industry standard abbreviation for oneworld is *O ...

Thanks

 

[Berlin]

Before I retired I worked for one of the largest companies in aus. The company criteria for flight selection was cheapest available flight on the half day in question.

Oh yea. There are cheapskape companies too I’ve heard!

 

[Major]

Not all LCC are the same, very much as not all “Majors” are not

I agree. I am quite unique

 

[kelvedon]

And adding to Boeing's woes, the Chinese have just signed an order for 300 A320 and A350 XWB aircraft worth an estimated US$.34 billion.

China agrees to buy 300 Airbus jets

 

[jb747]

And adding to Boeing's woes, the Chinese have just signed an order for 300 A320 and A350 XWB aircraft worth an estimated US$.34 billion.

China agrees to buy 300 Airbus jets

Not all that surprising, given that Airbus have an assembly plant in China.

 

[RooFlyer]

I haven't come across anyone yet on a daily basis on these other more often used transport methods who has the same level of anxiety as exhibited on post after post after post on here about air travel.

The quite obvious thing that differentiates air travel from all other modes of transport is of course that for most of the time you are on the ride, physical laws are working to kill the passengers by having it fall out of the sky.

While it's overall very safe, that's because of the skill of the pilots and investment in the hardware - but if either of those fail, unlike a car or a bus, the result is almost certain death. That's what focuses the mind I suggest.

 

[dajop]

While it's overall very safe, that's because of the skill of the pilots and investment in the hardware - but if either of those fail, unlike a car or a bus, the result is almost certain death. That's what focuses the mind I suggest.

In terms of what makes us so concerned about aircraft crashes, compared to road crashes, I suspect the big difference is that we perceive road crashes to be more immediate and we don’t necessarily see them coming- it’s all over in seconds. With air disasters what I am sure worries us most is the idea that you well know your fate minutes in advance. Not at all something we want to think about.