General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[burmans]

Just heard on the radio that several of the Melbourne mass protesters of last weekend have tested positive. Will be an interesting test case of outside transmissablity (assuming they were infective at the time of the protest).

Well clearly someone was infective but not necessarily those who tested positive (an asymptomatic super spreader maybe).

 

[blackcat20]

Just heard on the radio that several of the Melbourne mass protesters of last weekend have tested positive. Will be an interesting test case of outside transmissablity (assuming they were infective at the time of the protest).

I heard one protestor, tested positive the day after so they didnt catch it at the protest.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just heard on the radio that several of the Melbourne mass protesters of last weekend have tested positive. Will be an interesting test case of outside transmissablity (assuming they were infective at the time of the protest).

The official report was that one BM marcher has tested positive post BLM March. Others may of course still test positive, but there has not been any official reports that I have seen in addition to the one case that has been reported.

From the state’s chief medical officer, Prof Brett Sutton:

The case who attended the Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne developed symptoms after attending, but really, within 24 hours. So, it would be very unlikely that it’s been acquired from the protest. Normally, people develop symptoms four to six days after being exposed to coronavirus. As you know, up to 14 days, the incubation period can be, so the time from being exposed to develop symptoms so to develop within 24 hours it would be very unlikely acquired from attending the protest.

Nonetheless, because of attendance at the protest, within 24 hours of developing symptoms they were potentially infectious.

So the lesson about warning people not to attend applies, the directions in place that limit mass gatherings that limit gatherings of any size to 20 are for a reason. I hope that anyone who has attended that and indeed, across Victoria, who developed symptoms that are compatible with coronavirus, really need to isolate themselves, get tested, get that result back and become well before they get out and about again.

 

[Pushka]

Just heard on the radio that several of the Melbourne mass protesters of last weekend have tested positive. Will be an interesting test case of outside transmissablity (assuming they were infective at the time of the protest).

I think there is just one, so far.

 

[drron]

But that one case should mean 20000 attendees at that protest should self isolate until they have a negative covid swab and retested at 14 days post event.
Of course that won't happen but feel that means if NSW bans another protest it is unlikely to be overturned by the courts in view of a now demonstrated risk.

 

[p--and--t]

But that one case should mean 20000 attendees at that protest should self isolate until they have a negative covid swab and retested at 14 days post event.
Of course that won't happen but feel that means if NSW bans another protest it is unlikely to be overturned by the courts in view of a now demonstrated risk.

Prof Sutton has specifically advised against that action. He has said unless you have symptoms there is no need to isolate. The protester in question used a face mask throughout and the likelihood of him infecting someone is low.

 

[Flashback]

Prof Sutton has specifically advised against that action. He has said unless you have symptoms there is no need to isolate. The protester in question used a face mask throughout and the likelihood of him infecting someone is low.

But still possible. With the UKs current restrictions in place you would have to self isolate now regardless of whether you had symptoms or not, although I think the additional item is you had to have been in close contact for 15 minutes or more with the person.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Prof Sutton has specifically advised against that action. He has said unless you have symptoms there is no need to isolate. The protester in question used a face mask throughout and the likelihood of him infecting someone is low.

The problem is masks are not a solution - particularly not the surgical masks. Otherwise why have we all been staying home, if all that was needed was a bit of sanny and a mask.

I support the reason for the marches 100%, but in Australia now was not the time. A bit of lateral thinking could have engendered just as much support and publicity from virtual marches or candles at the end of driveways etc. I see the outpouring in the USA as a different story.

I also think a march is the easy way out for so many people - why not really contribute with family mentoring and tutoring a child that is struggling at school, to attack the root causes.

as someone who (in my long ago youth), both marched, ended in jail, did literacy work and tutoring, I know which was the most fun and which was the most value.

 

[p--and--t]

The problem is masks are not a solution - particularly not the surgical masks. Otherwise why have we all been staying home, if all that was needed was a bit of sanny and a mask.

I support the reason for the marches 100%, but in Australia now was not the time. A bit of lateral thinking could have engendered just as much support and publicity from virtual marches or candles at the end of driveways etc. I see the outpouring in the USA as a different story.

I also think a march is the easy way out for so many people - why not really contribute with family mentoring and tutoring a child that is struggling at school, to attack the root causes.

as someone who (in my long ago youth), both marched, ended in jail, did literacy work and tutoring, I know which was the most fun and which was the most value.

I'm just repeating the gov's mantra - "we are following the official medical advice" . For Vic that is Prof Sutton

 

[p--and--t]

A thought probably not shared by many, but i think the BLM protests pushing the envelope last week are a very good thing.

Firstly it showed many think that its about time some action was taken to redress the many issues on our side of the Pacific, second some of those who have entrenched racist white supremacy views in Canberra showed their stripes for all to see, third if there is no drama drama second wave outbreak as a result then the currently recalcitrant Premiers won't have a leg to stand on keeping the borders closed and excessive restrictions.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But still possible. With the UKs current restrictions in place you would have to self isolate now regardless of whether you had symptoms or not, although I think the additional item is you had to have been in close contact for 15 minutes or more with the person.

Just to be clear in Victoria:
- all those that test positive have to self-isolate/quarantine
- all close contacts also have to to self-isolate/quarantine

In general everyone with the most minor symptom is strongly encouraged to be tested and to self-isolate until the test result is known. (BIL did this and when his car not driven by him was later being out driven it was pulled up by police wanting to know why he (BIL) was not in self-isolation. Was not BIL driving, and as police was satisfied that driver was not living with BIL they were allowed to proceed. Obviously BIL's number plate was recorded at the testing facility!)


With the marchers Sutton stated:
I hope that anyone who has attended that and indeed, across Victoria, who developed symptoms that are compatible with coronavirus, really need to isolate themselves, get tested, get that result back and become well before they get out and about again.


Professor Sutton said there was no need for everyone who attended the protest to stay home.
"The quarantine requirements are for known contacts of a confirmed case. But anyone who develops symptoms, no matter how mild, does need to isolate," he said.
"That especially applies to those who've been to the protest because we know that they've had potential exposure. But it applies across the board in Victoria."

 

[Pushka]

A thought probably not shared by many, but i think the BLM protests pushing the envelope last week are a very good thing.

Firstly it showed many think that its about time some action was taken to redress the many issues on our side of the Pacific, second some of those who have entrenched racist white supremacy views in Canberra showed their stripes for all to see, third if there is no drama drama second wave outbreak as a result then the currently recalcitrant Premiers won't have a leg to stand on keeping the borders closed and excessive restrictions.

I don't think anyone disagrees with any of those points except the last. The timing sucks. I think if there is going to be a second wave, then this is it as tracing in a mass demo is impossible.

If we dont have a second wave and we can call that in about 3 weeks time then I agree with it all.

Bottom line - too early to call.

 

[Pushka]

On another note. Credit cards must be suffering. Received a call from our Amex Business Card yesterday asking if there was anything they can do to assist. That card is used to book all our travel amd not much else. Although this week I did put through an annual charge for our storage place.
My response - we haven't booked a flight in 3 months and don't know when we can.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The timing sucks. I think if there is going to be a second wave,

For the BLM to cause a second wave it would need for there to be quite a number of infected people out and about in order to infect people. With testing having been freely available for all with any symptom for some time now I very much doubt that is the baseload of infected people to create a second wave.

It may well cause a second ripple though, but I believe it would much more probably would be a hotspot at worst. So yes lets hope that there are not repeated such protests as the greater mixing could multiply cases.

then this is it as tracing in a mass demo is impossible.

Not impossible, but yes will be incomplete. For mass gatherings like this, and things such as using public transport, is why the Covid Safe App was deployed and is important. However this one case did not have it on. If people are going to gather ANYWHERE they should have the app installed and on. Attending a rally for the common good, but not having the app on for common good indicates a lack of genuineness to me.

With the BLM protester all their close contacts, including those that they attended the rally with, have been put into compulsory self-isolation.


PS I personally was not in favour of the protest, but it was always going to happen.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No 'patient zero' as Covid-19 came into UK at least 1,300 times

There was no “patient zero” in the UK’s Covid-19 epidemic, according to research showing that the infection was introduced on at least 1,300 occasions.

The findings, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium, have prompted further criticism that opportunities to suppress the spread of infection in February and March were missed.

The study by the consortium – which was set up to sequence the virus’s genetic code – shows that introduction of the virus into the UK peaked in mid-March at a time when infection rates were surging in European countries, but before the government clamped down on non-essential travel. Had travel restrictions and quarantine requirements been introduced a week earlier, overall case numbers in the UK may have been far lower, critics say.

The analysis, which has yet to be peer reviewed, also suggests that very few cases were introduced from China, where the pandemic started, with the vast majority coming from Spain, France and Italy.

Prof Gary McLean, professor in molecular immunology at London Metropolitan University, said: “If we’d started much earlier with severe external restrictions, it would have reduced the cases coming here and the onward transmission. We didn’t do it until too late.”

No 'patient zero' as Covid-19 came into UK at least 1,300 times

Study prompts further criticism that chances to suppress infection early in outbreak were missed

www.theguardian.com

 

[p--and--t]

For the BLM to cause a second wave it would need for there to be quite a number of infected people out and about in order to infect people. With testing having been freely available for all with any symptom for some time now I very much doubt that is the baseload of infected people to create a second wave.

It may well cause a second ripple though, but I believe it would much more probably would be a hotspot at worst. So yes lets hope that there are not repeated such protests as the greater mixing could multiply cases.



Not impossible, but yes will be incomplete. For mass gatherings like this, and things such as using public transport, is why the Covid Safe App was deployed and is important. However this one case did not have it on. If people are going to gather ANYWHERE they should have the app installed and on. Attending a rally for the common good, but not having the app on for common good indicates a lack of genuineness to me.

With the BLM protester all their close contacts, including those that they attended the rally with, have been put into compulsory self-isolation.


PS I personally was not in favour of the protest, but it was always going to happen.

Given Dr Sutton (Vic CMO) said he believes the protester had covid before the march, and its now 7 days since the march and most people show symptoms in 3-5 days, I haven't seen anything in the media about related cases.

If no related cases show up by next Wednesday, my reasoning is the premier's have no excuses to not open the borders.

If 10,000s of people can march together and the there is no outbreak within 10 days and the hospital ICUs are empty, then lets get back to some normal living (with international arrivals still banned).

While we might not have liked the timing and there are people with mixed views over the march, I think it could be potentially the best thing that could have happened. QLD and others will have zero excuses to have borders closed until September.

There will be zero excuses to not have the borders open by end of month and several other restrictions loosened.

Edit: The premiers are trading on fear of what might happen to boost their popularity stakes (politician mantra- never waste a disaster to improve your vote count) and no outbreak from the marches will burst their bubble - the emperor has no clothes.

 

[Pushka]

For the BLM to cause a second wave it would need for there to be quite a number of infected people out and about in order to infect people. With testing having been freely available for all with any symptom for some time now I very much doubt that is the baseload of infected people to create a second wave.

It may well cause a second ripple though, but I believe it would much more probably would be a hotspot at worst. So yes lets hope that there are not repeated such protests as the greater mixing could multiply cases.



Not impossible, but yes will be incomplete. For mass gatherings like this, and things such as using public transport, is why the Covid Safe App was deployed and is important. However this one case did not have it on. If people are going to gather ANYWHERE they should have the app installed and on. Attending a rally for the common good, but not having the app on for common good indicates a lack of genuineness to me.

With the BLM protester all their close contacts, including those that they attended the rally with, have been put into compulsory self-isolation.


PS I personally was not in favour of the protest, but it was always going to happen.

Thanks. I find that reassuring.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thanks. I find that reassuring.

Hotspot/cluster management seems to have improved. ie all the recent aged care cases have not turned into clusters.
The Rydges is bubbling along, but I strongly suspect that the staff there were not doing what they should have been and one did not disclose at least one person that was living with them (the fruit picker that flew to Qld).

Irritatingly we are still getting a small number of cases on some days. But each new case seems to get stamped out. 4 cases today, but 2 are hotel quarantined travellers. So new cases is really 2.

Community transmission however remains low.

Source Local - Unknown Contact

Sat 6 Jun	177		-1
Sun 7 Jun	177		0
Mon 8 Jun	177		0
Tue 9 Jun	178		1
Wed 10 Jun	179		1
Thu 11 Jun	179		0
Fri 12 Jun	179		0

 

[Flashback]

No 'patient zero' as Covid-19 came into UK at least 1,300 times

There was no “patient zero” in the UK’s Covid-19 epidemic, according to research showing that the infection was introduced on at least 1,300 occasions.

The findings, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium, have prompted further criticism that opportunities to suppress the spread of infection in February and March were missed.

The study by the consortium – which was set up to sequence the virus’s genetic code – shows that introduction of the virus into the UK peaked in mid-March at a time when infection rates were surging in European countries, but before the government clamped down on non-essential travel. Had travel restrictions and quarantine requirements been introduced a week earlier, overall case numbers in the UK may have been far lower, critics say.

The analysis, which has yet to be peer reviewed, also suggests that very few cases were introduced from China, where the pandemic started, with the vast majority coming from Spain, France and Italy.

Prof Gary McLean, professor in molecular immunology at London Metropolitan University, said: “If we’d started much earlier with severe external restrictions, it would have reduced the cases coming here and the onward transmission. We didn’t do it until too late.”

No 'patient zero' as Covid-19 came into UK at least 1,300 times

Study prompts further criticism that chances to suppress infection early in outbreak were missed

www.theguardian.com

Yet they only talk about Feb onwards. They seem to have missed Mrs FB and I who came back from China and likely had COVID-19 in the first week of Jan, so maybe we are patient zero?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yet they only talk about Feb onwards. They seem to have missed Mrs FB and I who came back from China and likely had COVID-19 in the first week of Jan, so maybe we are patient zero?

Were you in Hubei?