General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[PineappleSkip]

Interesting article on trying to infer case numbers from death numbers, from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. Seems there is a centre for everything.
CMMID
I was going to have a go at doing that until I read the paper.

 

[Flashback]

What happens if things change and you need to visit another chemist?

You can have it reissued and sent to another. It's better for the environment too.

Well hopefully they won’t stop paying rent due to lack of work

Now, I don't want to make a generalisation here and tar all Doctors with the same brush, but you'd generally see Doctors as being trustworthy and less likely to try the rent scam. I dunno' about @drron though

 

[juddles]

We've done a shedload of testing - and the positive rate is still well under 2%.
We only have a few dozen in ICU.

We now finally have enough tests that they are opening up testing criteria.

I'm hopeful but the maths still says this will grow for at least another week, till the first lockdown has an impact.

moa, will try to address various contents of your post:

the first is regarding testing numbers. If someone tests negative today, it just means they are still vulnerable to the virus. Australia may have a high testing amount compared to all countries, but this is NOT about anything that is not just seeing a snapshot of the status quo that day - again - as everyone who tests negative will almost certainly become positive in the future....

"We only have a few dozen in ICU"?? That was the case in Spain and Italy and the USA just a couple of weeks ago....

"We now finally have enough tests that they are opening up test criteria" : Exactly - we have no real idea about spread as at today.

This last one is where I struggle to stay civil: "but the maths still says this will grow for another week, till the first lockdown has an impact" !! Do you actually think that this epidemic will stop in "another week"?? I am sorry, but what is it that you are missing? this is a virus that has proven to be extremely contagious. There is no "maths" that suggests it will only grow for "another week". On the contrary, all the "maths" from every country is that this thing can be slightly slowed, but not stopped, by social measures. The only country that has apparently managed to stop the spread is China, who actually welded shut the doors of residential buildings!!!

I invite you to return to these posts of yours and mine in two weeks. And we will see then if your belief has any hope....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This article provides a good discussion of death and mortality rates and why they differ so much.

Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ

In Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 is more than 10 times greater than in Germany. Why does the death rate vary so much internationally?

www.bbc.com

 

[amaroo]

You can have it reissued and sent to another. It's better for the environment too.

LOL, ok ...

 

[Flashback]

LOL, ok ...

Well you seem to have some sort of hidden agenda here, I really don't understand why or what it is. But hey ho, there you go. I just stick to the facts and having had paper based in the past vs digital, digital has brought things ahead leaps and bounds in my experience (and others). For yourself though, paper seems to work best for you and your niche use cases so goodo.

 

[amaroo]

Well you seem to have some sort of hidden agenda here, I really don't understand why or what it is. But hey ho, there you go. I just stick to the facts and having had paper based in the past vs digital, digital has brought things ahead leaps and bounds in my experience (and others). For yourself though, paper seems to work best for you and your niche use cases so goodo.

Really? I post something, you post something- it’s just banter. No harm done.

No need to go nasty - enough already!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

- we have no real idea about spread as at today.

This is not correct. While obviously we, and our public health officials, want more widespread and comprehensive testing the amount of testing in Australia per head of population is much better than most countries and is sufficient for our officials to have a reasonable idea about what our number of infected is likely to be.

Further testing will make this more accurate, and in particular will allow them to track down more hotspots, and to more exactly know where more infected actually are. But the tests that have been down would be sufficient to know roughly know how many Australians are likely to be infected.

Remember too that virtually all serious cases will have been tested.

 

[juddles]

This is not correct. While obviously we, and our public health officials, want more widespread and comprehensive testing the amount of testing in Australia per head of population is much better than most countries and is sufficient for our officials to have a reasonable idea about what our number of infected is likely to be.

Further testing will make this more accurate, and in particular will allow them to track down more hotspots, and to more exactly know where more infected actually are. But the tests that have been down would be sufficient to know roughly know how many Australians are likely to be infected.

Remember too that virtually all serious cases will have been tested.

Sorry lovetravellingoz, but you are stating a belief, not any scientific reality. Australia has been very focused on only testing people who have returned from abroad and those who have proven links to actual COVID sufferers - this line has been taken due to the limited testing ability. And I understand this focus given the shortage of testing capacity.

Please point me to anywhere where any health official has talked about the number of untested cases that should be known given your proposition that "the tests that have been done would be sufficient to know roughly know how many australians are likely to be infected"........

 

[juddles]

Furthermore, for what it is worth, comparing Australia's numbers of tested per capita to other countries is nonsensical. It should be compared to what serious epidemiologists suggest as best practice. Those countries you are comparing to are being absolutely bewildered and ravaged by COVID. So we are a tad "better" than the worst?? I find that really non-comforting.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Furthermore, for what it is worth, comparing Australia's numbers of tested per capita to other countries is nonsensical. It should be compared to what serious epidemiologists suggest as best practice. Those countries you are comparing to are being absolutely bewildered and ravaged by COVID. So we are a tad "better" than the worst?? I find that really non-comforting.

We are not a "tad better" than the worst.

 

[juddles]

We are not a "tad better" than the worst.

Only time will tell - you are a bit early to claim that. let's give it a few weeks....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sorry lovetravellingoz, but you are stating a belief, not any scientific reality. Australia has been very focused on only testing people who have returned from abroad and those who have proven links to actual COVID sufferers..

Yes that is essentially is what I said, and despite this bias of testing those most likely to have it the positive rate is only 2%.

As the health officials have stated they initially have not delved wider than that as tests are in limited supply and they know the positive rate is much lower for those without links, or have not been overseas. You may recall that early on that tests were not so restricted and for example some people were being tested as they hada cold like symptom and their employers would not allow them to resume work with a test result. This led to the available tess being consumed too rapidly and so the health authorities then restricted who was eligible.

The critreria has now also been expanded to include health and emergency workers.

There is nothing to suggest that there is widespead transmission in Australia as yet.

 

[Flashback]

Really? I post something, you post something- it’s just banter. No harm done.

No need to go nasty - enough already!

Wasn't meant to be nasty, it just seemed a bit odd to be so fixated on paper prescriptions

Ahhh, the joys of banter over the internet. Difficult to lose context of tone when it's just text.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Only time will tell - you are a bit early to claim that. let's give it a few weeks....

It is what our health officials have stated.

ie

Australian Government Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly. 28 March
We have one of the highest rates per population of testing for coronavirus in the world. We have conducted more than 184,000 tests, with less than two per cent returning positive.

And we are well over 260,000 tests now, and infection rate is still less than 2 per cent. So population at large will be dramatically less than that.


Also if you look at the graphs the trend is positive, and we also know that overseas arrivals (who are now ALL quarantined) are still the largest source of infections. 1/ Arrivals are now declining and 2/ The quarantine will radically limit the transmission rate from these new arrivals to an extremely small number.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

 

[juddles]

It is what our health officials have stated.

ie

Australian Government Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly. 28 March
We have one of the highest rates per population of testing for coronavirus in the world. We have conducted more than 184,000 tests, with less than two per cent returning positive.

And we are well over 200,00 tests now.


Also if you look at the graphs the trend is positive, and we also know that overseas arrivals (who are now ALL quarantined) are still the largest source of infections. 1/ Arrivals are now declining and 2/ The quarantine will radically limit the transmission rate from these new arrivals to an extremely small number.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

What do you mean "the trend is positive"? Are you referring that the increase is not as bad as recently, even though it is still increasing??

And yes, the stricter quarantining of overseas arrivals will obviously have a good effect. But do you actually think that with this we will see a DECREASE in infection?? These are all measures to "flatten the curve" - containment was given up on weeks ago.

Why on earth quote the number of negative results from tests? How is this relevant to anything?

And please don't be so assured in quoting whatever you think the "health officials" have said - they are the same body of people that enticed the dear Prime Minister to so faithfully desire to "go to the footy" just a couple of weeks ago.......

 

[lovetravellingoz]

What do you mean "the trend is positive"? Are you referring that the increase is not as bad as recently, even though it is still increasing??

What do you mean by still increasing? Even one case per day means that the number of coughulative cases is still increasing.

However the number of new cases each day is trending lower. This is seeing the curve now flatten. We are starting to decelerate rather than keep accelerating. Early days yet, but this is a positive trend and even more so to my thinking as the main source of new infections (overseas arrivals) is about to largely chopped off.

Importantly the number of cases that have required, and are requiring, hospitalisation in Australia remains very low. This means that all that need it in Australia are currently receiving outstanding care and numbers would have to markedly surge for the standard of care to become hampered. This is why we need to keep social distancing and practising Stay at home as much possible.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And please don't be so assured in quoting whatever you think the "health officials" have said

It is not what I think he said. It is an actual quote from what he wrote: COVID-19 in Australia: we are not Italy, Iran or Spain

- they are the same body of people that enticed the dear Prime Minister to so faithfully desire to "go to the footy" just a couple of weeks ago.......

I believe your comment is actually the polar opposite of what would have been the case. I think you will rather find that they dissuaded him from going to the football.

The Prime Minister early on was wanting to keep the economy going as much as possible. He has clearly since embraced the advice of his health officials., and has given greater weight to health at the expense of the economy.

PS: I was never a fan of the Prime Minister, but I believe that in recent weeks he has done an outstanding job in very trying circumstances.

 

[juddles]

Importantly the number of cases that have required, and are requiring, hospitalisation in Australia remains very low.

Just a month ago New York had a single case - today 83,000.

Yes, we are doing things, but I think that notion that what is real today is indicative of tomorrow is plain wrong. There are two curves here - the curve of infection, and the curve of acknowledgement of the situation. Please open your eyes to what is happening EVERYWHERE. Don't be behind that second curve....

 

[juddles]

It is not what I think he said. It is an actual quote from what he wrote: COVID-19 in Australia: we are not Italy, Iran or Spain




I believe your comment is actually the polar opposite of what would have been the case. I think you will rather find that they dissuaded him from going to the football.

The Prime Minister early on was wanting to keep the economy going as much as possible. He has clearly sinced embraced the advice of his health officials.

Hard to say what the reality was there - but the PM has at every single point said that everything was being done in accordance "with the best medical advice". He has seemed to shield himself behind this group of medical officials and experts. Hardly surprising as he is in a very difficult position. But I suggest that so much of this whole thing is hindsight - and each day the medicos have reviewed their stance. Easy to suggest today that they wanted to dissuade him - but they were not expressing that at the time!