General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

[Pushka]

Read my post 2448. You assertions that they would have lived many months longer also can not be proven.

I did some research on that. For Australia aged care homes. In an average year in a residential aged facility there is 1/3 loss of residents. The average length of stay is 2 years approx. My mum who was very happy there lasted only 18 months. Her neighbour who had a fall the day she arrived - she refused help to carry a cup of tea in the dining room and tottered then fell breaking her hip, didn’t survive the fall. Falls were the greatest risk then cardio.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Read my post 2448. You assertions that they would have lived many months longer also can not be proven.

That was not my assertion though.

I asserted that most would not have died now anyway (ie if they had not have contracted Covid) and that their death was hastened by Covid and so that they have died before they otherwise might have, whatever that duration may have likely to have been and from whatever cause whether it be linked to their comorbidity, or to some other cause such as a car accident..

The originating post (#2430) that I wrote that started this discussion in part stated:

While some are, I think the majority of those who die with Covid and who have a co-morbidity it is Covid that has hastened the death.​

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For some that may not have been by a long period, but with others it will be years and sometimes many years that they have lost. I know of one where it most likely would be decades that has been lost. His comorbidity made him vulnerable, but there was no indication that he would have passed on anytime soon if it was not for Covid.​

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But I think it is wrong to just think that these people would have died now anyway. Most would not. I think we need to recognise that some people, including their relatives are paying a higher price than the majority us will to "Live with Covid".​

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As to the flu, one of the ironies with Living with Covid, is that deaths due to flu and pneumonia from having had the flu will climb back to what we used to have with seasonal fluctuations. So with Living with Covid (which again I support ) will result in more deaths from this.

Pre-Living with Covid in the pandemic one could argue that the lack of deaths from the flu more than offset those that died with Covid.

 

[Lynda2475]

All of us have been living with covid for over 2 years now, most people accept now that hiding under the doona is pointless given high vaccination rates and weakening virus variants.

The period you are referring to as living with covid is the omicron wave and on a percentage basis the amount of serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths wrt the number of infections has been lower than delta and alpha waves.

Constantly lamenting that a significant number of people have died before their time is getting tiresome *yawn* Things are improving, accept it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Things are improving, accept it.

What is to accept? I embraced the Living with Covid strategy when it was rolled out during the Delta wave which is still happening, though Omicron is now dominant.

Lifestyle wise we as a community are way better off, economically too with many affected businesses now on the up. Healthwise we will get there in the near future and morso as the booster vaccination rate nears the second dose rate., though many have had surgeries etc delayed.

Personally the Living with Covid period has been very good. I have been holidaying more days than not and I am off for another fortnight away tomorrow, and with many pastimes and social activities resumed. Personally for me there has been a lot more pro than con. A big pro for me is the much greater certainty.

Just because life is better, does not mean that one cannot discuss the pros and cons.

 

[wandering_fred]

Given that sooner or later we will need to "be up to date" with the covid vaccines to keep the government happy, how soon after you get a booster will they consider now "up to date" again.

I am permitted to and will take the AZ booster if I have to but would rather see a Novavax booster sooner...
I am getting bored with this in place wandering
Fred

 

[mviy]

It depends on what variants emerge, how effective the vaccine is against new variants and how long it takes what protection it does have to wane.

The current vaccine with a fairly recent 2nd dose or at least 3 doses provides great protection against getting seriously ill, but protection against catching COVID wanes over time.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

Given that sooner or later we will need to "be up to date" with the covid vaccines to keep the government happy, how soon after you get a booster will they consider now "up to date" again.

I am permitted to and will take the AZ booster if I have to but would rather see a Novavax booster sooner...
I am getting bored with this in place wandering
Fred

There is limited evidence at best that vaccine efficacy against hospitalization, ICU and death wanes over time even with these new variants. Don't get me wrong, a booster helps but the bulk of the safety comes in getting those two doses. My hope is that governments do away with testing altogether for international travel given COVID is now endemic and flagging someone as having it isn't gonna curb the spread much. In terms of vaccinations, a lot will really depend on the variants and the shelf life of these boosters. If COVID ends up being no more of a strain on our medical system than a seasonal flu, I would find it hard for any government to require vaccine mandates in the long run. Indeed, nearly all vaccine mandates are temporary and aside from a few rare situations, prior to 2021 there were no requirements to getting a vaccine.

All of that being said, as someone immunocompromised, I don't need Greg Hunt or Scott Morrison or Emmanuel Macron to tell me to get the jab. It's obvious they are one of the most critical lines of defence for me and I'm out there nipping at the heels to stay up to date with any and all vaccinations from influenza to pneumonia and of course COVID. As it stands right now, I've gotten three doses of the COVID vaccine: 2 primer doses of AstraZeneca (April, June 2021) and a Pfizer booster (Nov 2021). I am coming due for a further booster soon and am in a similar boat as you. I refuse to take either Pfizer or AstraZeneca now as I won't get much out of it beside additional antibodies. My take for these boosters is to get a different vaccine, and ideally vaccine technology than the prior ones so my immune system is trained in multiple different ways to deal with COVID. So for me it will be either Novavax (since it uses a different vaccine technology than Pfizer/Moderna and AstraZeneca) when it is allowed to be used as a booster or if push comes to shove Moderna.

In terms of which vaccine you should get a lot of it comes down to which vaccines you had before. If I were in your shoes and received two doses of AstraZeneca, I'd stay away from it and opt for Pfizer instead, which we also know has a better handle on this Omicron than the other vaccines. On the other hand, if you got two doses of Pfizer, then definitely go for the AstraZeneca, give your immune system a new way to learn how to fight off COVID.

It depends on what variants emerge, how effective the vaccine is against new variants and how long it takes what protection it does have to wane.

The current vaccine with a fairly recent 2nd dose or at least 3 doses provides great protection against getting seriously ill, but protection against catching COVID wanes over time.

I think one of the mistakes people make is assuming once they get the vaccine that's it, the pandemic is over. In reality, the vaccine represents one of several layers of protection against COVID. At a high level there is so much we can do to avoid getting COVID in the first place: don't take public transport, order your groceries online for delivery at home, minimize indoor spaces where it is significantly easier for COVID to spread, wear an N95 (P2) respirator in those instances where you can't socially distance or have to go indoors for extended periods of time. When flying there is a whole protocol I go through there: I typically sit at the front row of the plane, open the vents to have a constant airflow around me, board last (to avoid catching COVID from gate lice). Besides all of that, I also test once a week with a rapid antigen test at home, should it ever return a positive result, my game plan is to get treated immediately, hopefully I never have to pull that rip cord!

-RooFlyer88

 

[OATEK]

Vaccinations for covid will become like those for the flu - we will be always chasing our tail as vaccines are made after a variant emerges, not in anticipation of the variant. Sure some protection is afforded from new variants, but our vaccines will never be up to date unless the virus disappears. So living with covid means accepting this single key factor, that we will never be fully protected, and that vulnerable populations will suffer most. I still marvel that we have these vaccines with all the talk of never been done when Covid first reared it's ugly head.

 

[drron]

@lovetravellingoz in a normal season many elderly with comorbidities would have died of or with things such as flu,other respiratory tract infections, pneumonia or other bacterial infections. In 2017 the deaths would almost certainly have been close to the numbers in 2021 and 2022. It was worse though as the flu that year also caused many deaths in younger people even in those with no co morbidities. As I have said before I watched a 24 year old pregnant woman die of the flu that year. but in 2017 I travelled normally, only wore a mask when seeing patients with diseases caused by airborne spread or having resistant organisms.
Sure some of those that have died of covid might not have died were it not for covid but there are many that have not died that would likely have perished with any of the other illnesses already mentioned.

So this statement of yours -
"But I think it is wrong to just think that these people would have died now anyway. Most would not. I think we need to recognise that some people, including their relatives are paying a higher price than the majority us will to "Live with Covid"."

is only an opinion.There are not facts to back it up. And we, as usual, will never know for sure.

 

[andye]

I can only think of a few reasons why expectedly overall mortality might have fallen (as it has) over the pandemic
1. Low incidence of non-covid respiratory illnesses which have reduced with closed borders, reduced mixing, masks and hygiene
2. Reduced elective surgery. Many operations carry a mortality risk that is designed to prevent death in the future eg cancer, heart, vacular surgery
3. Reduced road deaths with less traffic
4. Reduced suicide-not intuitive but the increased focus on mental health may increase awareness and intervention to prevent.

I think the first most contributory. The implication is that some people (especially the frail) who have died of covid might have died of something else over that time. Of course it might not have been the exact same people. And still doesn't stop it being sad when loved ones die

 

[jrfsp]

Novavax to be considered for booster doses​

Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has just made a small comment regarding the progress of Novavax being approved as a booster vaccine for Australians

"The application for Novavax as boosters will come before the TGA soon," Mr Hunt said.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

<snip>

Just because life is better, does not mean that one cannot discuss the pros and cons.

@lovetravellingoz in a normal season many elderly with comorbidities would have died of or with things such as flu,other respiratory tract infections, pneumonia or other bacterial infections. In 2017 the deaths would almost certainly have been close to the numbers in 2021 and 2022. It was worse though as the flu that year also caused many deaths in younger people even in those with no co morbidities. As I have said before I watched a 24 year old pregnant woman die of the flu that year. but in 2017 I travelled normally, only wore a mask when seeing patients with diseases caused by airborne spread or having resistant organisms.
Sure some of those that have died of covid might not have died were it not for covid but there are many that have not died that would likely have perished with any of the other illnesses already mentioned.

So this statement of yours -
"But I think it is wrong to just think that these people would have died now anyway. Most would not. I think we need to recognise that some people, including their relatives are paying a higher price than the majority us will to "Live with Covid"."

is only an opinion.There are not facts to back it up. And we, as usual, will never know for sure.

Yes, and everyone has a right to express an opinion without being subject to an attempt to openly mock or ridicule.

Lots of people are now thinking of fine tuning living with covid and discussion of parallel issues. But then get confronted by those openly mocking thinking this is an attempt to reintroduce lockdown or changing the covid direction, which is clearly not the case.

The issue raised by LTO has indirectly a relationship to current Fed Parliament focus. Pragmatically it’s likely to be swept under the carpet before May.

Some just choose not to read because of a bias against the poster and to garner a pile on. (Not saying drron is a party)

 

[rogerkambah]

Would people (such as myself) suffering active cancer, but not currently undergoing treatment (awaiting the outcome of a referral to a surgeon) be considered as immunocompromised and be eligible for a fourth vax as recommended by ATAGI.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

@lovetravellingoz in a normal season many elderly with comorbidities would have died of or with things such as flu,other respiratory tract infections, pneumonia or other bacterial infections. In 2017 the deaths would almost certainly have been close to the numbers in 2021 and 2022. It was worse though as the flu that year also caused many deaths in younger people even in those with no co morbidities. As I have said before I watched a 24 year old pregnant woman die of the flu that year. but in 2017 I travelled normally, only wore a mask when seeing patients with diseases caused by airborne spread or having resistant organisms.
Sure some of those that have died of covid might not have died were it not for covid but there are many that have not died that would likely have perished with any of the other illnesses already mentioned.

So this statement of yours -
"But I think it is wrong to just think that these people would have died now anyway. Most would not. I think we need to recognise that some people, including their relatives are paying a higher price than the majority us will to "Live with Covid"."

is only an opinion.There are not facts to back it up. And we, as usual, will never know for sure.

You're quite right that it's hard to separate away those who have died from COVID versus those who died who also happened to have COVID. Could it have made the difference between life or death? I reckon in some cases the answer may be yes. I think an objective way to look at the impact COVID is having on health would be to ask the question, "are we seeing more deaths now than we have historically?" If the answer to this is no, then clearly all these measures were overkill. If, on the other hand, this is more than an aberration, one could argue that the measures were worthwhile. One measure I looked it which seems to favour the latter observation is Macotrends which tracks the global death rate historically since 1950. What is telling is there are only a couple years where the death rate has actually grown (i.e. 2019-2021)

Would people (such as myself) suffering active cancer, but not currently undergoing treatment (awaiting the outcome of a referral to a surgeon) be considered as immunocompromised and be eligible for a fourth vax as recommended by ATAGI.

Per an article from the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the answer is, yes, you should be getting a 4th dose which should be given approximately 3 months from the third. One big question us lucky high vulnerability group are asking is whether we should get a booster now or wait for Novavax to be approved as a booster. The argument for waiting is that you'll receive a different type of vaccine and that will provide your immune system with another way of fighting COVID, not just a bump up in antibodies. However, some may argue that it's better to get the antibodies now given how rampant COVID is. If I were you I'd have a discussion with your oncologist about this, both the question of when/how to get the 4th dose and what vaccine to get. In my case, as someone in the high risk group, I can't just get my jab from the GP or pharmac_, there is a respiratory clinic I must attend.

-RooFlyer88

 

[Pushka]

You're quite right that it's hard to separate away those who have died from COVID versus those who died who also happened to have COVID. Could it have made the difference between life or death? I reckon in some cases the answer may be yes. I think an objective way to look at the impact COVID is having on health would be to ask the question, "are we seeing more deaths now than we have historically?" If the answer to this is no, then clearly all these measures were overkill. If, on the other hand, this is more than an aberration, one could argue that the measures were worthwhile. One measure I looked it which seems to favour the latter observation is Macotrends which tracks the global death rate historically since 1950. What is telling is there are only a couple years where the death rate has actually grown (i.e. 2019-2021)


Per an article from the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the answer is, yes, you should be getting a 4th dose which should be given approximately 3 months from the third. One big question us lucky high vulnerability group are asking is whether we should get a booster now or wait for Novavax to be approved as a booster. The argument for waiting is that you'll receive a different type of vaccine and that will provide your immune system with another way of fighting COVID, not just a bump up in antibodies. However, some may argue that it's better to get the antibodies now given how rampant COVID is. If I were you I'd have a discussion with your oncologist about this, both the question of when/how to get the 4th dose and what vaccine to get. In my case, as someone in the high risk group, I can't just get my jab from the GP or pharmac_, there is a respiratory clinic I must attend.

-RooFlyer88

Another measure is life expectancy. I don't have the source to hand but understand Australia was one of the few countries where life expectancy grew last year compared with US and UK.

 

[drron]

You're quite right that it's hard to separate away those who have died from COVID versus those who died who also happened to have COVID. Could it have made the difference between life or death? I reckon in some cases the answer may be yes. I think an objective way to look at the impact COVID is having on health would be to ask the question, "are we seeing more deaths now than we have historically?" If the answer to this is no, then clearly all these measures were overkill. If, on the other hand, this is more than an aberration, one could argue that the measures were worthwhile. One measure I looked it which seems to favour the latter observation is Macotrends which tracks the global death rate historically since 1950. What is telling is there are only a couple years where the death rate has actually grown (i.e. 2019-2021)

The problem with attributing that to Covid is that the rise in deaths began in 2019 and that was predicted by the UN.

The possible reason is alluded to by @Pushka . The world's population is now aging even in many under developed nations.

 

[VPS]

There is a podcast in the UK called More or Less and Tim Harford has done a few on Corona virus and I really like the way they are presented

BBC Radio 4 - More or Less - Episode guide

All episodes of More or Less

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[wandering_fred]

Another measure is life expectancy. I don't have the source to hand but understand Australia was one of the few countries where life expectancy grew last year compared with US and UK.

Statisticians track these sorts of things all the time. It is a well paying vocation when employed by life insurance companies.
While many things have been said about "The Economist" magazine, their use of data (presented in many ways) is something a few USA/Australian companies could think about.

The Economist tracking excess deaths

You will need to use the "show all countries" button because Australia and New Zealand are showing NEGATIVE excess deaths. Eastern European countries do not fare so well.

Evaluating what numbers actually mean makes for interesting wandering
Fred

 

[kangarooflyer88]

Another measure is life expectancy. I don't have the source to hand but understand Australia was one of the few countries where life expectancy grew last year compared with US and UK.

We also don't know what impact COVID has had on life expectancy. In particular, if someone develops long COVID will that shave years off their life? Does it impact their useful life (i.e. the number of years they are living where their quality of life is deemed acceptable). It will likely be many years before that is known.

-RooFlyer88

 

[Pushka]

We also don't know what impact COVID has had on life expectancy. In particular, if someone develops long COVID will that shave years off their life? Does it impact their useful life (i.e. the number of years they are living where their quality of life is deemed acceptable). It will likely be many years before that is known.

-RooFlyer88

There are many viral illnesses that result in chronic fatigue issues and which by and large are ignored by mainstream. Covid likely will get all the attention.