I mostly agree with your points and I think that is not a good sign.
Firstly there is a reason why Virgin is cheaper. It is not Qantas. On domestic Qantas does all little things better. From in flight service to service recovery to customer service to terminals to lounges and lounge offerings etc. To me Qantas feels professional. And before anyone tries to correct me I have witnessed first hand a few times Virgin's attrocious efforts at service recovery, in flight service, lounges.
As far as international goes there really is no comparison. Virgin's international services are very thin.
So I now earn more Velocity points on cheaper airfares. Great. But what do I with them? I have no desire to go to LAX and certainly no desire to go to AUH or fly Etihad. Toasters? If someone on AFF would start gloating how easy it was to redeem Velocity points to go to SE Asia on SQ and received great value for money then I may start showing some interest in Velocity.
And what is disturbing right now is the lack of Quality sales. Every year Qantas would discount school holiday periods if you booked well in advance. Not this year. And Virgin is following suit. I am not spending $145 on a SYD-BNE airfare. Yes I know Virgin is still cheaper but I will travel less weeekends. I can't see how that could be better for any airline.
Interesting times.
Interesting note that when I fly Y domestic, booking generally a <7 days out and it's rare if I'm lucky enough to book during a sale.
BNE-SYD is generally:
QF: 182 - 240 one way
VA: 119 - 165 one way
So long as I'm paying more than ~120 one way, I'm earning
more points on Velocity than under QFF.
If I make 2 return trips/month I save on average ~$120 on each return trip or $3,120/year.
$3.1K is almost a paid business class return to south east asia, which I'll earn even more points on as well!
VA, while not as easy to get redemptions on SQ, they are superior value to QFF when considering
everything:
- Earning more points than QFF when flying domestic (so you get to the points goal faster)
- Most credit cards give you the ability to earn more VA points per $ than QFF per $ (so you get more points faster, again)
- Lower "taxes" than QFF on redemptions
- Attractive points + pay options
- SQ/EY premium cabins > QF
This is not factoring in things I value like domestic priority boarding which VA has perfected and QF struggles to get right.
Row 4 issues on QF - where VA I can choose any seat and get a shadow easy (even on a full flight as I had yesterday).
I'm not saying VA is the best program ever but when you plan out what things look like for you over the coming years and look at what is most important to you (keeping in mind what you value may be different to what I or anyone else values), I feel there is more to consider than who will give you the most free stuff when something goes wrong. Maybe that's why QF charge more to begin with...;p