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But the "new" process isn't just about earlier confirmations up to T-48, but it's also about later confirmations - right up until departure. This is probably an example of where there was no seat available at T-48 but a late cancellation/change resulted in a seat becoming available. As opposed to that seat potentially going empty in the past. In the past that may have also resulted in an op-up instead if Y/PE/J was oversold, but now it's allocated as a points upgrade.
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Thats my understanding also. I'm quite happy to use my points for a late upgrade.
The net cost to me for the upgrades SYD-LHR rtn was 68,000 (60K each way less 26K earned) and the flights so far have been excellent.
I'm not sure that the new upgrades are entirely instead of op-ups as the flight I'm on is very lightly loaded in all classes except PE. There are passengers at the back of whY with entire rows to themselves.