Iran firing off SAMs [effect on routes?]

[Scarlett]

Sooooooo, leaving aside the politics for a moment (take it to the playground - cause we DEFINITELY know how these sort of debates go!)...

It was a US Navy UAS, so not Global Hawk but the marinised MQ4 variant, much like Australia will be operating around our region in a few years. I don't know whether it always operates at the same high altitude as its Air Force cousin, but either way, someone using large SAM systems in proximity to civilian airliners is very concerning.

Has anyone seen an exact time the shoot-down happened or FR24 map of the area at the time to see what the airspace looked like in terms of traffic?

Flying CGK-IST last week I remarked to the guy beside me that I was surprised we overflew close to the Straits of Hormuz.

 

[offshore171]

Looking at FlightRadar right now, QR are flying right through the hot zone subject to the FAA ban. Literally threading the needle of the Strait of Hormuz. Eg QR845

I guess this is due to the ongoing dispute with the other gulf states, so they can’t overfly UAE?

 

[offshore171]

Courtesy of Gary Larson

 

[Himeno]

Looking at FlightRadar right now, QR are flying right through the hot zone subject to the FAA ban. Literally threading the needle of the Strait of Hormuz. Eg QR845

I guess this is due to the ongoing dispute with the other gulf states, so they can’t overfly UAE?

QR can't overfly most states in the gulf due to the blockade. Just about the only states they can overfly are those supporting them against the Saudi claims, Iran and Turkey.
QR also isn't subject to FAA bans. QR only has to follow FAA rules while in US airspace. The FAA ban applies to US carriers flying through Iranian airspace - which means that the UPS flight which was in the area on a flight from India to Germany many hours after the ban came into place, may have been in breach of it.

 

[offshore171]

QR also isn't subject to FAA bans. QR only has to follow FAA rules while in US airspace. The FAA ban applies to US carriers flying through Iranian airspace

Yes, I appreciate that. As I mentioned at the start, "FAA has set some airspace restrictions, applicable only to US carriers, but you can see others following suit."

The key point, is that if the situation gets more sketchy, and the affected airspace becomes a total no go, (like after MH17) then QR are probably going find it more difficult than anyone else since they can't do what other carriers are doing which is to just divert a bit to the south over UAE and Saudi.

 

[drron]

But Qatar has Iran as one of it's only friends in the area and vice versa.Iran is not going to shoot down a QR flight.Saudia arabia might.

 

[offshore171]

But Qatar has Iran as one of it's only friends in the area and vice versa.Iran is not going to shoot down a QR flight.

Not deliberately, but if SAMs are flying out of Iran, do you think QR are going to risk a half billion dollar aircraft full of passengers?

Remember MH17 wasn't a deliberate attempt to take out a civilian airliner either. It just shows what can go wrong when SAMs are being deployed in an area with passenger planes in the vicinity.

Similarly the Siberian Airlines 1812 incident.

 

[drron]

Totally different scenarios.No doubt the Iranians know just who they are aiming at.

 

[dajop]

Totally different scenarios.No doubt the Iranians know just who they are aiming at.

Indeed, we are not talking about separatists covertly backed by another power. The Iranian propaganda machine suggested there was a manned US military aircraft following in the vicinity of the drone they shot down and they chose to shoot down the drone. If they are to be believed.

Obviously the SAMS are active around the straits. Is the move to exclude overflying any Iranian airspace (including the north of the country - well away from the straits), political or for safety?

 

[offshore171]

Indeed, we are not talking about separatists covertly backed by another power.

Sure but the Siberian 1812 incident wasn't separatists either. That was regular forces, attempting to bring down a target drone as part of sanctioned military exercises. Missed the drone, hit an airliner.

 

[The man with no name]

Totally different scenarios.No doubt the Iranians know just who they are aiming at.

The Iranians are probably aiming at the planes that have their transponders turned off.

 

[Franky]

Yes really. Why are you surprised? You obviously believe the narrative you hear on TV and not the other side of the story. The Americans have decades of experience using proxies to do their dirty work on all corners of the globe. The Saudis don't even bother with proxies. Who could forget the Saudis made up most of the 9/11 terrorists?

As for the limpet mines, even if you believe it was the Iranians, and the Japanese don't, what would you have the Iranians do when there is an illegal embargo on their number one export? Consider for a moment the US response if another country enforced an embargo on their exports.

I have to repeat back to you my friend - this is complete and utter rubbish...

 

[burmans]

Most things that Iran AND TRUMP do are of concern to me

Glad to see someone with a balanced view.

 

[John Voller]

Re the time of the reported shoot down and civilian traffic...you might find this article interesting

The Threat Of A Civil Aircraft Shootdown In Iran Is Real

As we know by now, at 23:35Z last night (June 19, UTC), Iran shot down a US UAV on a high-altitude recon mission in the Straits of Hormuz. This was no small incident. The UAV was a $200 million aircraft, weighing 32,000 lbs, with the same wingspan as a 737. Although Iran and the US have slightly

ops.group

 

[offshore171]

Wow that’s a very interesting article indeed.

Thanks for posting.

 

[offshore171]

Looks like QF9 is now impacted by the latest flare up.

What other options are there? Routes to Europe via Japan, HK and Korea track further north over Mongolia and Russia, avoiding the gulf region altogether.

maybe a longer term solution lies in those options?

 

[Quickstatus]

QF9 has been using northern and southern routes not overflying Iranian airspace for a while now
QF1,2 has been using northern airways north of Iran for some days
QF10 however has been overflying Iranian airspace as late as last night

For QF9 the northern airroute takes the flight through Singapore and Nepal while the southern air route takes it over Sri Lanka and Dubai. The difference is about 200-250nautical miles. About 30min

 

[tgh]

Caveat emptor.. I have kept an unwanted 1000l fuel tank for just such an eventuality...

 

[Quickstatus]

Caveat emptor.. I have kept an unwanted 1000l fuel tank for just such an eventuality...

Pity it’s empty and in the cargo hold

 

[tgh]

.. sorry I had five aff windows open.. was commenting on ron's note about au running out of fuel..which I now cannot find.. carry on….