Iran firing off SAMs [effect on routes?]

[Quickstatus]

But were they SAMs surface to air? As per thread title?
They where reported as surface to surface ballistic missiles

 

[drron]

This is an old thread when Iran downed a drone with a SAM.now it is ballistic missiles.And tgh my original comment is on Page 1 of this thread.

 

[Himeno]

Looks like QF9 is now impacted by the latest flare up.

What other options are there? Routes to Europe via Japan, HK and Korea track further north over Mongolia and Russia, avoiding the gulf region altogether.

maybe a longer term solution lies in those options?

After ISIS became a threat, a lot of airlines stopped flying over Iraq and routed over western Iran instead. It now appears that, other then local traffic, flights are starting to travel north over the Caspian and Black Seas or south over Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

 

[Quickstatus]

This BA777 turned around a few hours after the missiles and diverted to ATH (might be unrelated)

 

[offshore171]

But were they SAMs surface to air? As per thread title?
They where reported as surface to surface ballistic missiles

Sure the latest activity was a salvo of ballistic missiles, which have Buckley’s of hitting a plane.

It’s the resulting heightened military state that causes the new issues. Lots of SAM operators would now be at their highest state of alert, and Iran has recently shown that they are willing to use them.

So no surprises that commercial airlines are freaked out.

 

[RSD]

Totally different scenarios.No doubt the Iranians know just who they are aiming at.

Actually it depends - on the type of missile fired by the Iranians. S300's (and S400's if they have/get them) are launched to altitude in the area of an identified hostile target and then go into a hunter/killer mode - given that the missile might not be able to detect the stealth F35/B2 etc that it was being sent after it could easily lock onto an airliner. Given that an aircraft over Dubai is within range of an S300 launched from the Iranian coast it makes the entire area risky to fly through, and that's before you even take into account things like the U.S. Navy has even been known to shoot down their own aircraft during peacetime exercises. Basically you would want to be giving the entire area a wide berth - either south flying up the Red Sea or north of the Himalayas as JB747 suggested

 

[Quickstatus]

Don’t forget the Russians and their BUKs

 

[RSD]

Don’t forget the Russians and their BUKs

...and that Iran has BUK's as well...as does Syria - who even managed to shoot down a plane belonging to their Russian guests so its obvious that they don't give two BUK's what they shoot down!

 

[RSD]

One thing is for sure - if the U.S. retaliate then the whole region will become involved due to the U.S. having bases in Saudi / Qatar / Bahrain etc.

 

[RSD]

and if things really kick off over there then it might make operations in and out of Dubai unsafe for Emirates and also Etihad out of Abu Dhabi.

 

[offshore171]

Latest - the 737 may have been brought down by a SAM

Trudeau accuses Iran of shooting down packed passenger plane

The US civil transport accident agency will take part in an Iranian investigation into the crash of a Ukrainian plane that Canadian PM Justin Trudeau says Iran shot down.

www.smh.com.au

 

[FlyboyAl]

Iran have now admitted to "Unintentionally" shooting the aircraft down.

Iran Says It Unintentionally Shot Down Ukrainian Airliner (Published 2020)

“The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake,” President Hassan Rouhani said, as Iran reversed its claims that mechanical failure was to blame.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Quickstatus]

and if things really kick off over there then it might make operations in and out of Dubai unsafe for Emirates and also Etihad out of Abu Dhabi.

And keep joining the dots....

QF and VA customers will still fly through Iranian Airspace

 

[offshore171]

Iran have now admitted to "Unintentionally" shooting the aircraft down.

I think this is exactly the scenario the airlines were worried about.

Tragically, it has played out to script.

 

[p--and--t]

Iran have now admitted to "Unintentionally" shooting the aircraft down.

Iran Says It Unintentionally Shot Down Ukrainian Airliner (Published 2020)

“The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake,” President Hassan Rouhani said, as Iran reversed its claims that mechanical failure was to blame.

www.nytimes.com

Hmmm. Non-refundable fares to & from holidays via Dubai on EK in April/May.

Guess a couple of bourbons before the flights and try not think about what might or might not happen. I'm not cancelling.

 

[offshore171]

Hmmm. Non-refundable fares to & from holidays via Dubai on EK in April/May.

Aside from the human tragedy, this will be a propaganda disaster for the Iranian regime, as it makes them appear incompetent and many of those killed were Iranians.

They were bulldozing the evidence at the crash site yesterday, before the video and satellite evidence emerged, making further denials impossible.

Having now admitted fault, I imagine they will be desperate to avoid a repeat and will be standing down or heavily restricting the SAM operations.

 

[amaroo]

The poor sods following orders are going to be prosecuted .... one wonders what that means in Iranian terms.

 

[FlyboyAl]

Aside from the human tragedy, this will be a propaganda disaster for the Iranian regime, as it makes them appear incompetent and many of those killed were Iranians.

They were bulldozing the evidence at the crash site yesterday, before the video and satellite evidence emerged, making further denials impossible.

Having now admitted fault, I imagine they will be desperate to avoid a repeat and will be standing down or heavily restricting the SAM operations.

They've already blamed the Americans for it!

 

[drron]

Well surprise,surprise.the Iranians knew from the beginning the plane had been shot down.Ukraine has released audio of the Tehran tower talking to an incoming flight who saw missiles and an explosion.

Iran Lied, Knew All Along Ukraine 752 Was Shot Down

Air traffic audio has been leaked, proving that Iran knew all along that they shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, killing 176 people.

onemileatatime.com

 

[jb747]

Totally different scenarios.No doubt the Iranians know just who they are aiming at.

I just noticed this comment, from about six months ago. Quite honestly, I don't trust anybody with SAMs once they start letting them fly.