Italy's New Restrictions.

JennyMG said:
Two things.
1.
2.
3.
and that idiot doctor(sorry, don't want to upset anyone, just my opinion) who went to work unwell,
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Yeah so.. uhm, that wasn't two things. That said I agree with your first three but disagree with your opinion about the doctor. Ignoring all the expected support from his colleagues for a minute, the facts appear to be that he didn't meet the guidelines to require testing (government guidelines!) and he made an independent decision on his own bat to ask to be tested (he didn't test himself!) and had no idea he would test positive (do you imagine that out of all the tests carried out that anything other than a small percentage actually come back positive?)

Do you want to think about how many doctors are currently out there right now working with some medical condition (which may include a cold?) and what happens to the medical system if all of them all self isolate

So no.. I do agree that he's owed an apology. First from the Victorian health minister and now probably from you. (my opinion).


And in terms of Italy, the footage of people rushing to leave the region because the draft decree was leaked was amazing. Not unexpected but still amazing. What did they think the outcome was going to be ? It's like watching a Hollywood movie.. "I am in this contagion zone, so the first thing I want to do is escape and head straight to my family in the non contagion zone and we will all live happily ever after".

There was an interview on ABC with a bunch of people at the train station in.. Padua ? And people saying "yes, we all need to do our duty. except actually me. that wouldn't make any kind of sense that you want to apply that rule to me.. you just need to apply it to others"

Which did make me think.. yep, that's definitely humanity in 2020.
 
Italy's new restrictions have now been applied to the entire country for two weeks.

"
  • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS WILL NO LONGER BE "RED ZONE", ALL OF ITALY WILL BE UNDER SAME CONDITION
  • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS MOVEMENT WILL BE RESTRICTED ALL OVER ITALY
  • CONTE SAYS ITALY WILL LIMIT PUBLIC ASSEMBLY THROUGHOUT COUNTRY
  • CONTE TO SIGN MEASURE TO EXTEND MEASURES THROUGH COUNTRY"

 
Renato1 said:
Italy's new restrictions have now been applied to the entire country for two weeks.

"
  • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS WILL NO LONGER BE "RED ZONE", ALL OF ITALY WILL BE UNDER SAME CONDITION
  • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS MOVEMENT WILL BE RESTRICTED ALL OVER ITALY
  • CONTE SAYS ITALY WILL LIMIT PUBLIC ASSEMBLY THROUGHOUT COUNTRY
  • CONTE TO SIGN MEASURE TO EXTEND MEASURES THROUGH COUNTRY"
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I think this is a good move, if you look at the WHO stats for Korea, the Diamond Princess and China (though some doubt this) confinement strategies seem to work well in rapidly reducing the spread.
 
I agree, it seems a good move.
I also think that the 'numbers' are very elastic. France and Germany HAVE to have many more cases than they've reported, it's just nonsensical to think they don't. The border isn't much of a border...people go in and out all the time. They're just not blanket testing like Italy is. And very possibly it's a bit hush hush, so they don't have to shut down like their Italian cousins. They're probably 'waiting to see' what happens. Sheesh. It's going to be too late. It's probably going to be at it's worst, in jUne and July when I've got my 'trip of a lifetime' booked. :(
 
JennyMG said:
and that idiot doctor(sorry, don't want to upset anyone, just my opinion) who went to work unwell, who "didn't ever in my wildest dreams think i had corona virus" (and that's why he tested himself??) and the AMA said 'he didn't contravene any rules.' Well, I think the AMA should have stood up for the Victorian minister who was 'flabbergasted at his behaviour' instead of protecting one of the boys. I wonder how all his colleagues and patients feel right now? And everyone telling us not to panic.
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Unfortunately the type of uninformed commentary like the above just makes matters worse. Why flog a healthcare professional for following the governments own rules? I could say the above type of comment is actually idiotic (not wanting to upset anyone of course, just my opinion to use your words)

The Victorian minister has been fluffing all over the place over the last few days - just read/watch all of her announcements, she is clearly out of her depth or panicking and reacted emotionally in a time where we need our leaders to be calm, cool and consistent. Talk about unprofessional. She could well end up facing legal action but I note she has seriously back tracked on her comments as should you.
 
JennyMG said:
I agree, it seems a good move.
I also think that the 'numbers' are very elastic. France and Germany HAVE to have many more cases than they've reported, it's just nonsensical to think they don't. The border isn't much of a border...people go in and out all the time. They're just not blanket testing like Italy is. And very possibly it's a bit hush hush, so they don't have to shut down like their Italian cousins. They're probably 'waiting to see' what happens. Sheesh. It's going to be too late. It's probably going to be at it's worst, in jUne and July when I've got my 'trip of a lifetime' booked. :(
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I really cant see this being at its worst in June and July, there are 2 main things you can already see from the stats, firstly it spread's rapidly and secondly that once contained the numbers come down again fairly quickly. This would tend to indicate this will be over much quicker than you've suggested but there are really only a couple of ways this could happen, a) countries don't contain it or b) countries relax their containment too early and there are subsequent waves.

In the case of a) well yes many may get it in that country and the number would rapidly explode (in that country) but I suspect two things, firstly that strong measures will be put in place by all other countries (including neighbours) to keep people out, and secondly that panic will force the local authorities to put those containments strategies in place,

In the case of b) I think governments will be nervous so at the first site of a new breakout they will just reimpose the previous containment strategies.

I really don't think the 'everyone is going to get it' theory is compatible with the 'its going to be around for ages' theory.
 
burmans said:
I really cant see this being at its worst in June and July, there are 2 main things you can already see from the stats, firstly it spread's rapidly and secondly that once contained the numbers come down again fairly quickly. This would tend to indicate this will be over much quicker than you've suggested
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Your post actually makes me feel better. I've been so down over the last few weeks. I literally have been planning this for a couple of years, FINALLY using my hard earned points, and loving researching and enjoying the build up, the booking and planning, which is part of the fun. This has really hit hard...never in our wildest dreams did we ever think this might - a pandemic!! happen to derail our 25th wedding anniversary 'tour'.
I'm quite a well travelled person, but not a very frequent traveller like many of you here. (who know more about what to do and routes to take and points to use).... Its been quite an emotional roller coaster as it has for many, I suspect.
I hope you're right. I hope it fizzles out...with the new news that you can "only catch it once.".... and am standing firm with ALL my myriad of bookings, to see where I am, in a couple of months' time.
Perhaps by 2nd June, when we leave for France (Italy is in July)...it may be both safer (though I'm not worried about catching it, more worried everything will be all shut! or that I'll get stuck) , and that restrictions have somewhat calmed, and many dropped.
I wish I had a crystal ball, but I think they were in the toilet paper aisle and are all sold out.
 
JennyMG said:
Your post actually makes me feel better. I've been so down over the last few weeks.
...
I wish I had a crystal ball, but I think they were in the toilet paper aisle and are all sold out.
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All the best Jenny. Know the feeling of putting so much effort in, doing all the right things and an unforeseen event causing everything to change.

Working in a building with structural biologists and virologists, you get a very different perspective on the disease.. and it makes them quite angry that the medical side of things has been blown out of the water by a completely disproportionate reaction on the economic/government/regulatory/panic buying side of things..

Unfortunately once the explosion happened we all deal with the fallout with no ability to put things back to the way it was before..

Still think you should say sorry (virtually) to that doctor though! :-)
 
JennyMG said:
I agree, it seems a good move.
I also think that the 'numbers' are very elastic. France and Germany HAVE to have many more cases than they've reported, it's just nonsensical to think they don't. The border isn't much of a border...people go in and out all the time. They're just not blanket testing like Italy is. And very possibly it's a bit hush hush, so they don't have to shut down like their Italian cousins. They're probably 'waiting to see' what happens. Sheesh. It's going to be too late. It's probably going to be at it's worst, in jUne and July when I've got my 'trip of a lifetime' booked. :(
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I suspect that they do not have more "Cases". All countries will have more people infected than the number of cases, but most infected people will never become cases as their symptoms are either mild, or not present at all.

Now do I believe the the Germans would not impose their normal efficiency with respect to Covid 19? No, I do not.

Confirmed case 1
A person who tests positive to a validated specific SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test or has the virus identified by electron microscopy or viral culture, at a reference laboratory.

Suspect case 1
  1. If the patient satisfies epidemiological and clinical criteria, they are classified as a suspect case.


So far when a country takes containment seriously it seems to slow the rate of spread dramatically. Italy will be an interesting case study now as Covid 19 has evidently been there since December, but the Italians were very slow to realise it and even slower to act upon it.


PS. June/July being summer in Europe may help to slow things if it hasa seasonality like the flu. In hotter countries at present its spread seems to have been slow. (Though in Singapore the government has been most diligent in its actions).
 
burmans said:
I really cant see this being at its worst in June and July, there are 2 main things you can already see from the stats, firstly it spread's rapidly and secondly that once contained the numbers come down again fairly quickly. This would tend to indicate this will be over much quicker than you've suggested but there are really only a couple of ways this could happen, a) countries don't contain it or b) countries relax their containment too early and there are subsequent waves.

In the case of a) well yes many may get it in that country and the number would rapidly explode (in that country) but I suspect two things, firstly that strong measures will be put in place by all other countries (including neighbours) to keep people out, and secondly that panic will force the local authorities to put those containments strategies in place,

In the case of b) I think governments will be nervous so at the first site of a new breakout they will just reimpose the previous containment strategies.

I really don't think the 'everyone is going to get it' theory is compatible with the 'its going to be around for ages' theory.
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burmans, I admire your positive position. I am a bit unaware of on what basis you state that "once contained the numbers come down fairly quickly". I assume that this is not a reference to those bizarre Chinese figures?? I cannot understand the rest of your post, but it seems that things will be ok...
 
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Himeno said:
Given that Italy has closed it's own borders with no one allowed in or out, I'm not sure what the point of Australia blocking travel in Italy is.
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How many millions escaped the Chinese shutdown, Italy would be the same or worse IMO.
 
Himeno said:
Given that Italy has closed it's own borders with no one allowed in or out, I'm not sure what the point of Australia blocking travel in Italy is.
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Hundreds or flights still departed or arrived in Italy today so there must be some people getting in or out or are they all ghost flights?
With no passport control in the EU I’m struggling to see how officials can stop the flow in or out of the country via road, sea or rail
 
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